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Staying in College vs. Turning Pro


JamesB

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After Gaudette's excellent performance in the 2017 Summer Showdown some people are thinking or at least asking about whether it would make sense for him to turn pro now. But he has consistently and unwaveringly said that he is going back to college for his third year.

 

The question of when to turn pro and whether to graduate (and maybe become a college free agent) comes up quite often. There was some concern that Demko would graduate and declare free agency, but he signed with the team and turned pro after 3 years at Boston College. There was also a lot of talk about Boeser's situation, but he turned pro at the end of his second year. In this year's draft class, Rathbone will be a college player.

 

I have been thinking about the player's decision, so I thought I would go over it here, just in case anyone else is interested. Here are some random comments.

 

1. In his interview after the summer showdown Gaudette said that he is going back to college and that he is happy that the Canucks "support his decision". This is consistent with what I had thought before -- that it was Gaudette who made the call about going back, not the Canucks. The Canuck brass (Benning and Linden) have talked as if it was their decision, but they have never actually made that claim. My guess is that the Canucks are fine with him going back to college but would probably prefer him to go to Utica. But it is completely up to Gaudette. If Gaudette has a good year in college it would not surprise me if the Canucks offer to sign him after the college season ends and let him play a few games to burn a year off his ELC, as they did with Boeser and Tryamkin. It is a good incentive to get players who have other options to actually sign.

 

2. Gaudette is probably good enough to play in Utica right now. At 6-1 and 185 lbs, he is bigger than a lot of guys in the AHL and in the Summer Showdown he was arguably the best guy on the ice, and several of those guys will be in Utica (or the SHL) next season. And given what he did in the NCAA last year, there is every reason to expect he would be just fine in the AHL.

 

3. But, in general, it is usually better for a player to stay in college if the alternative is the AHL. Not always (as with Demko), but usually. I will use Gaudette as an illustration. If Gaudette turns pro, signs with the Canucks and plays in Utica, he gets a signing bonus of about 90K and an AHL salary of about 70K. That is 160K for the year. But the signing bonus is not really extra money, as he will get that bonus when he signs anyway -- possibly at the end of the 2017-18 season instead of the beginning. So he gets the bonus earlier, but that is not a big deal. 

 

4. So really, he loses only about 70K if stays in college. But it is less than that. In college he is on a scholarship that provides room and board and covers a lot of other expenses. And living close to home has advantages as well. The immediate financial gain from playing in the AHL is probably very small.

 

5. The big advantage of staying in college is that he gets a year closer to finishing his degree. I think he has taken some summer courses. Adding in the three years of full-time study, and he will be pretty close to graduating -- something he could maybe do in a couple of summers. That is important to a lot of players and could really matter if things do not pan out in the NHL. 

 

6. And for most guys, staying in college is more fun. In Gaudette's case he is close to his family. And of course he has friends in the area and let's not forget college girls (young women for the politically correct). Also, for a guy from Massachusetts, playing in the Beanpot and maybe contending for an NCAA championship is a big deal -- bigger than contending for the Calder Cup.

 

7. On the other hand, if Gaudette thought he could make the big team, then the financial effect is overwhelming as his NHL contract would be somewhere between 650K and 925K (before bonuses) for 2017-18. For Boeser, the financial advantage of turning pro at the end of his second year in college will probably turn out to be very big -- likely several million -- as it advances his time to UFA status in addition to burning time off his ELC. 

 

8. So why did Demko turn pro to play in Utica? Here is a nice article: http://www.iihf.com/competition/271/news/news-singleview/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=11183.

One important factor is that he is not far from graduating and expects to graduate after picking up some summer courses. That is feasible after three years of full-time college. Also, after three years in college he really needed to move on to continue to develop his game. Spending an extra year in college probably would have held him back (and would have forced the Canucks to get some other goalie prospects into the system). It might be similar for Gaudette next year. Another year in college is probably fine for his hockey development, Another year after that probably holds him back.

 

Drafting college players can be a bit tricky given the  "loophole" about being able to declare free agency after four years of college and the attractions of being in college, but it has worked out well for the Canucks recently, with Demko and Boeser in the fold (not to mention Hutton), and Gaudette looks to be doing well also and should sign next year.

 

Not sure if anyone else is interested enough to read this and/or comment but, if so, thanks,

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't think there's any concern here about AG going to free agency. The Canucks are respecting and supporting his decision, which I like because I think that generates some loyalty. All AG has to do is talk with Boeser about how he was treated and AG can go back for another year and feel good about not being pressured to go to Utica. The AHL is a huge step and he probably just wants to gain more size and speed to go in with confidence, and like you say its a good place to develop.  I don't think its any more complicated than that.  

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Players have to think about life after hockey. I support ANY of these college players who decide to stay in school longer before going pro. It's easy for people to forget that these players are living, breathing people.  Besides, unlike the CHL, the jump from NCAA isn't a much of major jump to the NHL.

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Like has been said, playing one more year in college then turning pro n March to burn an ELC year makes a lot of sense. 

 

The occurances of college players going to UFA is rare, and seems to happen more with late bloomers.  Gaudette could qualify as that but I doubt he'll delay his ELC two years to get to pick where he goes.  Rathbone would have to wait even longer as he won't be going to Harvard until next year.

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I don't see it as an issue, unless the player is staying in college so they can become a FA and sign somewhere else.

 

Different then a kid wasting away one more year in jnr's but not quite good enough for NHL. College is just a small step down from AHL I think.

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3 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

He shouldn't lazily limit his options behind a mountain of textbooks.

 

If the hockey thing hit a brick wall, he could landscape, dig ditches, or pursue a career in city-sanitation!

sarcasm.jpg?itok=j-4gm8k7

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Not every player that gets drafted love hockey.  Many are probably just individuals who happens to be very talented in it and are using it to further their career and financial position. 

I remember how Lee Sweat could have probably gotten an NHL/AHL deal somewhere or played in Europe pulling in at least a couple hundred grand.  Instead, I believe he quit hockey to go into investment banking, which may or may not pay even more. 

 

Is it as dazzling?  It could be.  But he doesn't need to wait up early morning for training/practice, then spend a few more hours rehabing and other conditioning program, add more time reviewing tapes, watching his diet, etc.  Not including how you may need to spent a lot of the year on the road and being away from family and friends. 

With professional sports, even if you do earn money, your standard of living may suffer.  Ask Ohlund how he feels being unable to even go for a walk for over an hour.  Ask Pavel how he can barely skate anymore.  Lindros was (is) suffering from long-term concussion issues. 

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Gaudette has had the opportunity to see how the Canucks operate.  If he felt that he was treated well, with his best interests at heart, and that when he turned pro he had a very real opportunity with the team, the Canucks have nothing to fear from him doing the free agent thing.

 

There are several players in the Canucks system from college:  Boeser, Stecher, Molino, Demko to name a few.  Gaudette knows that there are opportunities here for him.  If he's good enough, he knows he could go straight from college to the Canucks or be able to do it within a year.  He would also know that Utica is a decent place to go as well.  No matter what level a player enters the Canucks system, they are focusing on player development and there is good coaching  and support there.

 

 

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If we don't get the Sedin's back next season on a one year deal, the timing of Gaudette turning pro would be impeccable. Pettersson is likely still 2-3 years away, so having the Canucks Centre depth at: 

Horvat, Sutter, Gagner, Gaudette (something along these lines) would be basically a 75% transition to a full forward rebuild until Pettersson or any other forward prospects arrive. I have full confidence he will make the jump after next season like Boeser was able to show in 9 games with us last season. 

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15 hours ago, Glory_Days said:

I don't see it as an issue, unless the player is staying in college so they can become a FA and sign somewhere else.

 

Different then a kid wasting away one more year in jnr's but not quite good enough for NHL. College is just a small step down from AHL I think.

Exactly. It's also very similar to a pro life style with a strict regiment of training and school schedule. It's a great place for budding prospects to continue their development. 

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17 minutes ago, Camel Toe Drag said:

Exactly. It's also very similar to a pro life style with a strict regiment of training and school schedule. It's a great place for budding prospects to continue their development. 

You know one more thing colleges have that normal lives don't?   College girls.     Don't kid yourself that the life of a high profile student athlete doesn't have some nice fringe benefits.   To not enjoy that as young guy before the seriousness of being a professional and such is simply too much for many to not include in their considerations.

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One of the reasons you see players take huge leaps while playing in college is because they are both students academically and athletically. They spend more time practicing and studying the game then any other league in the world. The have nutritional and conditioning guidance at a world class level. Especially programs like ND. School aside, these guys are primarily here to become elite athletes. The education is the cherry on top. I wish the league drafted players who at 20 or 21. It would entice more to take the college route. Which would produce more pro ready players. It would eliminate this stupid not ready for NHL to good for Jr deadzone and the stupid UFA college loophole. 

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29 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

You know one more thing colleges have that normal lives don't?   College girls.     Don't kid yourself that the life of a high profile student athlete doesn't have some nice fringe benefits.   To not enjoy that as young guy before the seriousness of being a professional and such is simply too much for many to not include in their considerations.

I whole heartily agree. 

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