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(Discussion) Best case scenerio


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2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Yes, let's say the Canucks top 10 prospects eventually make the team:

Boeser

Pettersson

Juolevi

Demko

Dahlen

Gaudette

Goldobin

Virtanen

Lockwood

Gadjovich

 

What becomes of Lind, MacEwen, Stukel, Zhukenov, Jasek, Palmu, etc? Will these players ever play in the NHL? Perhaps trades? (I didn't include D in this list, as Brisebois, Gunnarsson and Rathbone may play one day)

 

Everyone is always high on prospects, but it is very unlikely that even half of them will make it.

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8 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

An unprotected 2018 Vancouver 1st? Yeah maybe. 

So if Sergachev, a #9OA pick with the ability to bolt to Russia can get you Gudbranson and and unprotected 1st from a lottery team.

 

What does the better Dman (#5 OA, Juolevi) without the ability to bolt to Russia get you? Maybe we should consider a trade by your logic

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3 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

So if Sergachev, a #9OA pick with the ability to bolt to Russia can get you Gudbranson and and unprotected 1st from a lottery team.

 

What does the better Dman without the ability to bolt to Russia get you? Maybe we should consider a trade by your logic

Drouin straight up.

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2 minutes ago, Where'd Luongo? said:

Everyone is always high on prospects, but it is very unlikely that even half of them will make it.

Probably safe to say all of the Canucks top 10 prospects make it, as Boeser, Juolevi, Virtanen and Goldobin might make the team this year and Pettersson, Dahlen, Gaudette and Demko are sure bets. But yeah, next year Benning will draft a handful more players, and then again the following year, and so on. Got a feeling we may see Lind and Chatfield at some point. TBH, I thought we would've seen Subban make the jump by now, but again, he may never play in the bigs. 

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10 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

I'm actually excited about seeing these young guys develop. It's not a playoff excitement but it still gives me excitement to watch Canuck games. Can't wait for the season to start

Me too.  I can watch all the Utica games on-line, so I'm looking forward to seeing the kids down there too.  I think we are at the bottom of the rebuild/ retool curve.  We might stay here for a bit, but the rise up will be great fun to see how high the kids can climb up.  

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2 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

I would have been delusional last year if I suggested Burrows would get Dahlen to

Apples and oranges.  Tampa just gave up Drouin to get Sergachev and a 2nd. They're not going to turn around and trade him for a 3/4 defenceman on an expiring co tract who just had a career worst year. Not to mention adding a 1st round pick to Sergachev 

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1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Me too.  I can watch all the Utica games on-line, so I'm looking forward to seeing the kids down there too.  I think we are at the bottom of the rebuild/ retool curve.  We might stay here for a bit, but the rise up will be great fun to see how high the kids can climb up.  

I have high hopes like always, but I understand where we're at though.. still won't stop me from seeing the possibilities :)

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Just now, qwijibo said:

Apples and oranges.  Tampa just gave up Drouin to get Sergachev and a 2nd. They're not going to turn around and trade him for a 3/4 defenceman on an expiring co tract who just had a career worst year. Not to mention adding a 1st round pick to Sergachev 

When your a Gudbranson away from the cup you will. Tampa seen the real Gudbranson unlike most people on CDC that rip him apart over last year

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Just now, Hortankin said:

But I thought the Habs just traded for Drouin and teams never trade players they just acquired? 

You asked what would a better Dman that couldn't bolt to Russia get. Sergachev is good but unproven and they had to add a conditional 2nd to get Drouin. A proven Sergachev with no risk of leaving would have got Drouin straight up.

 

Meaning a better Dman with no risk of leaving for Russia would fetch one of the best young forwards in the league, straight up. On the other hand, a 25 year old Dman with very few points that just missed almost a full season of hockey would not fetch the same thing, not even close.

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7 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

When your a Gudbranson away from the cup you will. Tampa seen the real Gudbranson unlike most people on CDC that rip him apart over last year

The only team that is a Gudbranson away from the cup is Pittsburgh. They'd probably trade a 1st for him.

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18 minutes ago, Where'd Luongo? said:

Everyone is always high on prospects, but it is very unlikely that even half of them will make it.

Was going to say that historically even 25% of that list being on the team within 5 years is pushing it.

 

But that's never stopped CDC before.

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Just now, MJDDawg said:

Was going to say that historically even 25% of that list being on the team within 5 years is pushing it.

 

But that's never stopped CDC before.

Gotta love when people fill in each spot in the lineup with future prospects and in reality 2 years down the line there are 3 of them in the lineup and the rest are gone.

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2 minutes ago, MJDDawg said:

Was going to say that historically even 25% of that list being on the team within 5 years is pushing it.

 

But that's never stopped CDC before.

Boeser, Goldobin, Virtanen and Juolevi may make the team this year. I'm pretty sure Pettersson, Dahlen, Gaudette and Demko make it in a year or two, so that's 8 out of their top 10 I believe will make it. I wouldn't count out Gadjovich, Lind, Lockwood or Brisebois either. 

 

What I do agree with is around 25% of all draft picks make it, so the 75% that doesn't could include: Subban, Pettit, Abols, Brassard, Stewart, etc.  

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30 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

So if Sergachev, a #9OA pick with the ability to bolt to Russia can get you Gudbranson and and unprotected 1st from a lottery team.

 

What does the better Dman (#5 OA, Juolevi) without the ability to bolt to Russia get you? Maybe we should consider a trade by your logic

Sergachev has played all his professional hockey in North America.  He's about as likely to bolt as Juolevi is. Tryamkin on The other hand played all of his professional hockey in the KHL prior to coming to Vancouver.  There's a huge difference. 

 

And BTW. Juolevi has just as much opportunity to bolt to the KHL as Sergachev does.  In addition. Calling Juolevi the better defenceman is seriously premature. Most redrafted have Juolevi going later than Sergachev.  Regardless. It's going to take a few years to determine who is better 

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6 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Boeser, Goldobin, Virtanen and Juolevi may make the team this year. I'm pretty sure Pettersson, Dahlen, Gaudette and Demko make it in a year or two, so that's 8 out of their top 10 I believe will make it. I wouldn't count out Gadjovich, Lind, Lockwood or Brisebois either. 

 

What I do agree with is around 25% of all draft picks make it, so the 75% that doesn't could include: Subban, Pettit, Abols, Brassard, Stewart, etc.  

It's possible true. But remember, I'm not talking about "making it" in the Virtanen sense where they play their 9 games or even play more than 9 games with the team burning a year of their ELC, then getting sent back down. I'm talking making the team for good  (say at least 2 seasons).

 

I remember seeing historical analysis showing that around 40% of first round picks went on to an NHL career, while after the first round the percentage dropped to about a 25% success rate for picks.

 

All things being equal, if even 50% of JB's picks (or picks from a trade) go on to an NHL career, a statue should be built in his honour. And I'd be at the unveiling to celebrate.

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