Projecting Horvat, Baertschi, & Granlund from Comparables

[Misconduct16]

Happy smoky lung destroying summer everyone!

Fully aware there are topics about all three of these players and their upcoming contracts, however I have compiled all the First and Second round forwards from the 2011-2014 drafts and their current contracts so that we can see comparables (so evidently I thought it was worth it's own topic).

Here's a link to the sortable google spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKN7kP3AkJfZoPGcfwfD3cgeCxHtne0gEDcIrgiDirM/edit?usp=sharing

 

And here's a snapshot of the players around Horvat.

All of the players below him in pts/gm have singed bridge deals, or in Larkins case are still on their ELC.

Above him there are a few ELC's still (deleted to save space), Rakell who throws off the scale by having an extremely Team favorable deal, and Wennberg who will likely get a very similar deal to Horvat.

From the comparables, it does seem like Bo is in line for somewhere between 4M-5.5M on a long term deal, although more likely in the mid to upper reaches of that due to the perceived intangibles.
 

Pick #

Team

Name

Pos

GP

G

A

P

G/GP

A/GP

P/GP

AAV

Term

3	Montreal	Alex Galchenyuk	C	336	89	115	204	0.26	0.34	0.61	$4,900,000.00	3
3	Tampa Bay	Jonathan Drouin	L	164	29	66	95	0.18	0.40	0.58	$5,500,000.00	6
6	Ottawa	Mika Zibanejad	C	337	78	110	188	0.23	0.33	0.56	$5,350,000.00	5
14	Columbus	Alexander Wennberg	C	217	25	94	119	0.12	0.43	0.55	RFA	0
30	Anaheim	Rickard Rakell	C	236	62	67	129	0.26	0.28	0.55	$3,789,444.00	6
42	Carolina	Victor Rask	C	242	48	78	126	0.20	0.32	0.52	$4,000,000.00	6
9	Vancouver	Bo Horvat	C	231	49	68	117	0.21	0.29	0.51	RFA	0
17	San Jose	Tomas Hertl	C	249	59	65	124	0.24	0.26	0.50	$3,000,000.00	2
5	Carolina	Elias Lindholm	C	293	48	96	144	0.16	0.33	0.49	$2,700,000.00	2
5	NY Islanders	Ryan Strome	C	258	45	81	126	0.17	0.31	0.49	$2,500,000.00	2
23	Washington	Andre Burakovsky	L	196	38	57	95	0.19	0.29	0.48	$3,000,000.00	2
37	Columbus	Boone Jenner	C	267	73	55	128	0.27	0.21	0.48	$2,900,000.00	2

 

For Baertschi The only player who got a longer term deal is Couturier, who brings a lot of other skills to the table like faceoffs and penalty killing. If his production remains at the current clip this season, he seems to be in line for a 2-4M dollar deal in the 2-4 year range.
 

15	NY Rangers	J.T. Miller	C	278	59	73	132	0.21	0.26	0.47	$2,750,000.00	2
8	Philadelphia	Sean Couturier	C	416	70	121	191	0.17	0.29	0.46	$4,333,333.00	6
20	Chicago	Nick Schmaltz	C	61	6	22	28	0.10	0.36	0.46	ELC	3
30	Los Angeles	Tanner Pearson	L	226	54	49	103	0.24	0.22	0.46	$3,750,000.00	4
13	Calgary	Sven Baertschi	L	206	43	50	93	0.21	0.24	0.45	$1,850,000.00	2
18	Chicago	Teuvo Teravainen	F	196	32	54	86	0.16	0.28	0.44	$2,860,000.00	2
1	Edmonton	Nail Yakupov	R	292	53	67	120	0.18	0.23	0.41	$875,000.00	1
4	Calgary	Sam Bennett	C	159	31	32	63	0.19	0.20	0.40	RFA	0
27	Tampa Bay	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	201	33	46	79	0.16	0.23	0.39	$1,937,500.00	2

 

For granlund the comparables are a little less evident as most of the players similar to him signed similar prove it deals... I'd have to think he gets around the Faksa 2M mark on a multi year (but not long term) deal.
 

26	Chicago	Phillip Danault	C	135	17	33	50	0.13	0.24	0.37	$912,500.00	2
45	Calgary	Markus Granlund	C	171	35	28	63	0.20	0.16	0.37	$900,000.00	2
12	Arizona	Brendan Perlini	L	57	14	7	21	0.25	0.12	0.37	ELC	3
13	Dallas	Radek Faksa	C	125	17	28	45	0.14	0.22	0.36	$2,200,000.00	3
55	San Jose	Chris Tierney	C	202	24	40	64	0.12	0.20	0.32	$735,000.00	1
61	Ottawa	Shane Prince	L	114	11	25	36	0.10	0.22	0.32	$850,000.00	2
38	Carolina	Phil Di Giuseppe	L	77	8	16	24	0.10	0.21	0.31	$725,000.00	1

Anyways, hope you guys find this interesting. Flame/reply/whatever away!

[wildcam]

1 hour ago, Misconduct16 said:

Happy smoky lung destroying summer everyone!

Fully aware there are topics about all three of these players and their upcoming contracts, however I have compiled all the First and Second round forwards from the 2011-2014 drafts and their current contracts so that we can see comparables (so evidently I thought it was worth it's own topic).

Here's a link to the sortable google spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKN7kP3AkJfZoPGcfwfD3cgeCxHtne0gEDcIrgiDirM/edit?usp=sharing

 

And here's a snapshot of the players around Horvat.

All of the players below him in pts/gm have singed bridge deals, or in Larkins case are still on their ELC.

Above him there are a few ELC's still (deleted to save space), Rakell who throws off the scale by having an extremely Team favorable deal, and Wennberg who will likely get a very similar deal to Horvat.

From the comparables, it does seem like Bo is in line for somewhere between 4M-5.5M on a long term deal, although more likely in the mid to upper reaches of that due to the perceived intangibles.
 

Pick #

Team

Name

Pos

GP

G

A

P

G/GP

A/GP

P/GP

AAV

Term

3	Montreal	Alex Galchenyuk	C	336	89	115	204	0.26	0.34	0.61	$4,900,000.00	3
3	Tampa Bay	Jonathan Drouin	L	164	29	66	95	0.18	0.40	0.58	$5,500,000.00	6
6	Ottawa	Mika Zibanejad	C	337	78	110	188	0.23	0.33	0.56	$5,350,000.00	5
14	Columbus	Alexander Wennberg	C	217	25	94	119	0.12	0.43	0.55	RFA	0
30	Anaheim	Rickard Rakell	C	236	62	67	129	0.26	0.28	0.55	$3,789,444.00	6
42	Carolina	Victor Rask	C	242	48	78	126	0.20	0.32	0.52	$4,000,000.00	6
9	Vancouver	Bo Horvat	C	231	49	68	117	0.21	0.29	0.51	RFA	0
17	San Jose	Tomas Hertl	C	249	59	65	124	0.24	0.26	0.50	$3,000,000.00	2
5	Carolina	Elias Lindholm	C	293	48	96	144	0.16	0.33	0.49	$2,700,000.00	2
5	NY Islanders	Ryan Strome	C	258	45	81	126	0.17	0.31	0.49	$2,500,000.00	2
23	Washington	Andre Burakovsky	L	196	38	57	95	0.19	0.29	0.48	$3,000,000.00	2
37	Columbus	Boone Jenner	C	267	73	55	128	0.27	0.21	0.48	$2,900,000.00	2

 

For Baertschi The only player who got a longer term deal is Couturier, who brings a lot of other skills to the table like faceoffs and penalty killing. If his production remains at the current clip this season, he seems to be in line for a 2-4M dollar deal in the 2-4 year range.
 

15	NY Rangers	J.T. Miller	C	278	59	73	132	0.21	0.26	0.47	$2,750,000.00	2
8	Philadelphia	Sean Couturier	C	416	70	121	191	0.17	0.29	0.46	$4,333,333.00	6
20	Chicago	Nick Schmaltz	C	61	6	22	28	0.10	0.36	0.46	ELC	3
30	Los Angeles	Tanner Pearson	L	226	54	49	103	0.24	0.22	0.46	$3,750,000.00	4
13	Calgary	Sven Baertschi	L	206	43	50	93	0.21	0.24	0.45	$1,850,000.00	2
18	Chicago	Teuvo Teravainen	F	196	32	54	86	0.16	0.28	0.44	$2,860,000.00	2
1	Edmonton	Nail Yakupov	R	292	53	67	120	0.18	0.23	0.41	$875,000.00	1
4	Calgary	Sam Bennett	C	159	31	32	63	0.19	0.20	0.40	RFA	0
27	Tampa Bay	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	201	33	46	79	0.16	0.23	0.39	$1,937,500.00	2

 

For granlund the comparables are a little less evident as most of the players similar to him signed similar prove it deals... I'd have to think he gets around the Faksa 2M mark on a multi year (but not long term) deal.
 

26	Chicago	Phillip Danault	C	135	17	33	50	0.13	0.24	0.37	$912,500.00	2
45	Calgary	Markus Granlund	C	171	35	28	63	0.20	0.16	0.37	$900,000.00	2
12	Arizona	Brendan Perlini	L	57	14	7	21	0.25	0.12	0.37	ELC	3
13	Dallas	Radek Faksa	C	125	17	28	45	0.14	0.22	0.36	$2,200,000.00	3
55	San Jose	Chris Tierney	C	202	24	40	64	0.12	0.20	0.32	$735,000.00	1
61	Ottawa	Shane Prince	L	114	11	25	36	0.10	0.22	0.32	$850,000.00	2
38	Carolina	Phil Di Giuseppe	L	77	8	16	24	0.10	0.21	0.31	$725,000.00	1

Anyways, hope you guys find this interesting. Flame/reply/whatever away!

Great article, very interesting.. I like both Baertschi and Grandlund great trades for us.. Think Bart will be a good top 6 guy avg 22-25 G  65pts

Grandlund 22-26 G  60-70 pt guy.. Both players will be in 3 million dollar club soon

[Nucker 67]

Interesting, thanks for putting in the work. That's kind of what I figured as well, thinking 6 years at $5.5 per year.

[kazin!]

52 minutes ago, wildcam said:

Great article, very interesting.. I like both Baertschi and Grandlund great trades for us.. Think Bart will be a good top 6 guy avg 22-25 G  65pts

Grandlund 22-26 G  60-70 pt guy.. Both players will be in 3 million dollar club soon

Boy if those come true that'd be great!

 

Btw...Granlund - no extra "d"!

[Mathew Barzal]

If we're lucky Baertschi can have a Raymond-esque career. No standout qualities for him.

[kazin!]

2 minutes ago, Mathew Barzal said:

If we're lucky Baertschi can have a Raymond-esque career. No standout qualities for him.

I'd take that 53 point season any day!

[Katobaron]

22 minutes ago, Mathew Barzal said:

If we're lucky Baertschi can have a Raymond-esque career. No standout qualities for him.

I didn't mind Raymond while he was here but so far Baertschi has shown more push back in a couple years than Raymond did in his whole career.

[Ajax-]

2 hours ago, Misconduct16 said:

Happy smoky lung destroying summer everyone!

Fully aware there are topics about all three of these players and their upcoming contracts, however I have compiled all the First and Second round forwards from the 2011-2014 drafts and their current contracts so that we can see comparables (so evidently I thought it was worth it's own topic).

Here's a link to the sortable google spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKN7kP3AkJfZoPGcfwfD3cgeCxHtne0gEDcIrgiDirM/edit?usp=sharing

 

And here's a snapshot of the players around Horvat.

All of the players below him in pts/gm have singed bridge deals, or in Larkins case are still on their ELC.

Above him there are a few ELC's still (deleted to save space), Rakell who throws off the scale by having an extremely Team favorable deal, and Wennberg who will likely get a very similar deal to Horvat.

From the comparables, it does seem like Bo is in line for somewhere between 4M-5.5M on a long term deal, although more likely in the mid to upper reaches of that due to the perceived intangibles.
 

Pick #

Team

Name

Pos

GP

G

A

P

G/GP

A/GP

P/GP

AAV

Term

3	Montreal	Alex Galchenyuk	C	336	89	115	204	0.26	0.34	0.61	$4,900,000.00	3
3	Tampa Bay	Jonathan Drouin	L	164	29	66	95	0.18	0.40	0.58	$5,500,000.00	6
6	Ottawa	Mika Zibanejad	C	337	78	110	188	0.23	0.33	0.56	$5,350,000.00	5
14	Columbus	Alexander Wennberg	C	217	25	94	119	0.12	0.43	0.55	RFA	0
30	Anaheim	Rickard Rakell	C	236	62	67	129	0.26	0.28	0.55	$3,789,444.00	6
42	Carolina	Victor Rask	C	242	48	78	126	0.20	0.32	0.52	$4,000,000.00	6
9	Vancouver	Bo Horvat	C	231	49	68	117	0.21	0.29	0.51	RFA	0
17	San Jose	Tomas Hertl	C	249	59	65	124	0.24	0.26	0.50	$3,000,000.00	2
5	Carolina	Elias Lindholm	C	293	48	96	144	0.16	0.33	0.49	$2,700,000.00	2
5	NY Islanders	Ryan Strome	C	258	45	81	126	0.17	0.31	0.49	$2,500,000.00	2
23	Washington	Andre Burakovsky	L	196	38	57	95	0.19	0.29	0.48	$3,000,000.00	2
37	Columbus	Boone Jenner	C	267	73	55	128	0.27	0.21	0.48	$2,900,000.00	2

 

For Baertschi The only player who got a longer term deal is Couturier, who brings a lot of other skills to the table like faceoffs and penalty killing. If his production remains at the current clip this season, he seems to be in line for a 2-4M dollar deal in the 2-4 year range.
 

15	NY Rangers	J.T. Miller	C	278	59	73	132	0.21	0.26	0.47	$2,750,000.00	2
8	Philadelphia	Sean Couturier	C	416	70	121	191	0.17	0.29	0.46	$4,333,333.00	6
20	Chicago	Nick Schmaltz	C	61	6	22	28	0.10	0.36	0.46	ELC	3
30	Los Angeles	Tanner Pearson	L	226	54	49	103	0.24	0.22	0.46	$3,750,000.00	4
13	Calgary	Sven Baertschi	L	206	43	50	93	0.21	0.24	0.45	$1,850,000.00	2
18	Chicago	Teuvo Teravainen	F	196	32	54	86	0.16	0.28	0.44	$2,860,000.00	2
1	Edmonton	Nail Yakupov	R	292	53	67	120	0.18	0.23	0.41	$875,000.00	1
4	Calgary	Sam Bennett	C	159	31	32	63	0.19	0.20	0.40	RFA	0
27	Tampa Bay	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	201	33	46	79	0.16	0.23	0.39	$1,937,500.00	2

 

For granlund the comparables are a little less evident as most of the players similar to him signed similar prove it deals... I'd have to think he gets around the Faksa 2M mark on a multi year (but not long term) deal.
 

26	Chicago	Phillip Danault	C	135	17	33	50	0.13	0.24	0.37	$912,500.00	2
45	Calgary	Markus Granlund	C	171	35	28	63	0.20	0.16	0.37	$900,000.00	2
12	Arizona	Brendan Perlini	L	57	14	7	21	0.25	0.12	0.37	ELC	3
13	Dallas	Radek Faksa	C	125	17	28	45	0.14	0.22	0.36	$2,200,000.00	3
55	San Jose	Chris Tierney	C	202	24	40	64	0.12	0.20	0.32	$735,000.00	1
61	Ottawa	Shane Prince	L	114	11	25	36	0.10	0.22	0.32	$850,000.00	2
38	Carolina	Phil Di Giuseppe	L	77	8	16	24	0.10	0.21	0.31	$725,000.00	1

Anyways, hope you guys find this interesting. Flame/reply/whatever away!

Sorry your summer is being destroyed by the smoke dude. For us Forestry people on the front lines my heart really really goes out to you for your destroyed summer, how devastating for you!

 

Good read though!

 

Go Canucks Go

[JM_]

nice work OP. Can't see Sven in the 4 mil range tho, maybe if he was a C but I just don't see that big a raise unless he has a really spectacular year. 

[canucklehead44]

41 minutes ago, Katobaron said:

I didn't mind Raymond while he was here but so far Baertschi has shown more push back in a couple years than Raymond did in his whole career.

I think Baertschi will be better. They have nearly identical career PPG with Baertschi at 24 trending upward. I think Baertschi will be a lot like Sam Gagner. A good second line player but never quite a 1st line player and lacking in some intangibles. 

[Rob_Zepp]

Interesting and clearly you put effort into this.   However, it is really a comparison of just points and that can be very misleading.   If you did 5x5 points per 60, for example, it would be a fairer comparison for players who had distanced themselves from the pack in either a positive or negative manner.   Even then, if someone is on a weaker team, they don't have the point opportunities of someone on a stronger team.   You don't often (it can happen) Art Ross winners and other top 10 types from teams not in the playoffs let alone those not at least within striking distance at season's end.  

[Fateless]

45 minutes ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

Sorry your summer is being destroyed by the smoke dude. For us Forestry people on the front lines my heart really really goes out to you for your destroyed summer, how devastating for you!

[-AJ-]

I love those stats. Nice work comparing them and looking into it. One thing is I'd say looking at how a player is projecting into the future is relevant. Their most recent season would be worth taking into account in addition to their total careers up to this point.

[Misconduct16]

7 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Interesting and clearly you put effort into this.   However, it is really a comparison of just points and that can be very misleading.   If you did 5x5 points per 60, for example, it would be a fairer comparison for players who had distanced themselves from the pack in either a positive or negative manner.   Even then, if someone is on a weaker team, they don't have the point opportunities of someone on a stronger team.   You don't often (it can happen) Art Ross winners and other top 10 types from teams not in the playoffs let alone those not at least within striking distance at season's end.  

I wish I had the time to look into advanced stats like deployment, corsi, points per 60, etc... but that just wasn't in the cards. Hopefully at some point that can be done. I'm trying to work on a spreadsheet which autopulls full data for players from various websites... but it's a work in progress.

Points are an easy place to start, and a easy visible way for fans to compare players. Plus, if we looked at advanced stats everyone would realize horvat isn't actually a two way forward and has had somewhat favorable deployment and is nowhere near a bergeron/kesler esque two way player and more of a Marcus Johansson esque player.... he ranks very low in his CORSI and Fenwick against per 60. This is partially because he is the strongest player on a line that is given assignments outside of what they should have been... but still... anyways not the point. Yes. More stats would be nice.

[Misconduct16]

2 hours ago, wildcam said:

Great article, very interesting.. I like both Baertschi and Grandlund great trades for us.. Think Bart will be a good top 6 guy avg 22-25 G  65pts

Granlund 22-26 G  60-70 pt guy.. Both players will be in 3 million dollar club soon

65pts for Baer and 60 for Granlund? Holy cow you must be smoking something.

I see Baertschi as a replacement level 2nd line player who gets about 50pts/year and Granlund as a 3rd liner who bounces around the 20G 40pt range (unless he sticks with the twins for a couple years and gets the anson carter stat lift lol)

[Misconduct16]

1 hour ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

Sorry your summer is being destroyed by the smoke dude. For us Forestry people on the front lines my heart really really goes out to you for your destroyed summer, how devastating for you!

 

Good read though!

 

Go Canucks Go

Making a cheeky comment about the current weather in no means conveys, or attempts to convey, any sort of disparaging comment towards the people that are battling the fires. The fact that is what you took out of that baffles me.

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, Misconduct16 said:

I wish I had the time to look into advanced stats like deployment, corsi, points per 60, etc... but that just wasn't in the cards. Hopefully at some point that can be done. I'm trying to work on a spreadsheet which autopulls full data for players from various websites... but it's a work in progress.

Points are an easy place to start, and a easy visible way for fans to compare players. Plus, if we looked at advanced stats everyone would realize horvat isn't actually a two way forward and has had somewhat favorable deployment and is nowhere near a bergeron/kesler esque two way player and more of a Marcus Johansson esque player.... he ranks very low in his CORSI and Fenwick against per 60. This is partially because he is the strongest player on a line that is given assignments outside of what they should have been... but still... anyways not the point. Yes. More stats would be nice.

His stats for his first three years are better pretty much across the board, and certainly in goals/points, than Henrik Sedin except Bo Horvat has done those three years while two years younger in age.    Point is that none of us know that he (or anyone else on that list) isn't a potential Hart/Art Ross winner in there somewhere.   Now you certainly don't pay him like that but you do need to be careful putting a cap on players too early or projecting too much too fast as well.   This player has made strong advances each year - and I would expect him to leave that cohort you offered up in the dust sooner than later.

[Rob_Zepp]

2 minutes ago, Misconduct16 said:

65pts for Baer and 60 for Granlund? Holy cow you must be smoking something.

I see Baertschi as a replacement level 2nd line player who gets about 50pts/year and Granlund as a 3rd liner who bounces around the 20G 40pt range (unless he sticks with the twins for a couple years and gets the anson carter stat lift lol)

Why do negative on Baer?  While he may be a later bloomer, he is one the last CHL players to get 2 points per game and that came AFTER being quite a high first round pick.  That talent has always been there and last season he added the grit of getting to the net (he scored a lot of his goals within a few feet of the crease).   His top end could be above 2nd line let alone as a "replacement player".   

[canucklehead44]

Baer and Granlund are like our new Higgins and Hansen. Probably get 3-4 year deals in the range of 2.5-3 million dollars AAV. 

I see Horvat getting 5x5. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

Gran/Baer seem good players, but can't see them become GREAT players. If the right deal popped up, would be open to recycling them.

 

Be interested to see if they get any pressure(Burm, Goldy, Bouch, Rodin) from unlikely sources? If they're really happy here, & willing to play hard for reasonable coin(ala Higgy, Burr & Badger), then it might be kosher, long-term...