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Projecting Horvat, Baertschi, & Granlund from Comparables


Misconduct16

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1 hour ago, Katobaron said:

I didn't mind Raymond while he was here but so far Baertschi has shown more push back in a couple years than Raymond did in his whole career.

Doesn't have the speed without the puck, but is much better with it already.  I'd estimate that both Granlund and Bear will end up better than Raymond, they are starting to really prove they belong in this league.  Both are capable of becoming consistent twenty plus goal scorers, which these days is money in the bank.  Great job of the OP putting this together.

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3 hours ago, wildcam said:

Great article, very interesting.. I like both Baertschi and Grandlund great trades for us.. Think Bart will be a good top 6 guy avg 22-25 G  65pts

Grandlund 22-26 G  60-70 pt guy.. Both players will be in 3 million dollar club soon

Setting your expectations a bit high don't you think? 

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2 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Setting your expectations a bit high don't you think? 

Well the goals at least are almost at those expectations, so that part I think is quite realistic. They were 2nd and 3rd on the team in goals after all. It's obviously a matter of "we'll see" but so far it's been looking pretty good in the goals department.

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5 hours ago, wildcam said:

Great article, very interesting.. I like both Baertschi and Grandlund great trades for us.. Think Bart will be a good top 6 guy avg 22-25 G  65pts

Grandlund 22-26 G  60-70 pt guy.. Both players will be in 3 million dollar club soon

While I like them both, that is very optimistic of you.  

 

People always seem to have very unrealistic expectations of our players, then when they don't meet those expectations, they pitchfork them.  

 

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58 minutes ago, drummerboy said:

While I like them both, that is very optimistic of you.  

 

People always seem to have very unrealistic expectations of our players, then when they don't meet those expectations, they pitchfork them.  

 

Well I liked both trades from day 1.. I watched Baertschi in WHL and he had that great skill. AHL he also did great just never got chance to show real potential ..Grandlund I was so excited he had point a game in AHL and did great at world u20....We won both trade but remember fans calling for Bennings head...

 

I was on board and believe in Benning... These 2 guys have lots of talent, They showed it to you lat year, Grandlung had 18 G and missed 20 games....

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3 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Setting your expectations a bit high don't you think? 

No I don't think so? Bart  GP 69   G 18 mins 15:53 could easily get 25 goals if given quality time on PP

Grandlund will also produce better number under Green .. Will had his favourites..

You will see more offence under Green group///

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13 minutes ago, wildcam said:

Well I liked both trades from day 1.. I watched Baertschi in WHL and he had that great skill. AHL he also did great just never got chance to show real potential ..Grandlund I was so excited he had point a game in AHL and did great at world u20....We won both trade but remember fans calling for Bennings head...

 

I was on board and believe in Benning... These 2 guys have lots of talent, They showed it to you lat year, Grandlung had 18 G and missed 20 games....

What is your point?  

I said like them too. 

I think both were pretty good trades. 

 

Im just saying, thinking they will be 65/70 point players is overly optimistic. 

I see them both being around 50 give or take a few.  

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Let's not forget that Granlund played with a bad wrist.  I think that 50 points is a reasonable expectation for both Baer and Granlund.

You can build a team with 50 point players. We could have 7 guys hit 50 points next year.

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I sure am liking the Rakell and Rask contract compareables for Horvat! Those are great comparisons, much over 5m for what he has done would be an overpayment compared to those players. Or are those teams GM's just better at negotiating?

 

I also could see a Strome 2yr deal for Horvat as well, if he is wanting to bet on himself for a larger payday after a short term deal.

 

Boggles my mind, Horvat should be our top priority, pen to contract signing should be imminent....its August for peat sake!

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19 hours ago, canucklehead44 said:

Baer and Granlund are like our new Higgins and Hansen. Probably get 3-4 year deals in the range of 2.5-3 million dollars AAV. 

I see Horvat getting 5x5. 

Very good comparison... Marmite players. Some love them and few don't, but Granlund in particular are able to play anywhere in the line up...

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21 hours ago, S'all Good Man said:

nice work OP. Can't see Sven in the 4 mil range tho, maybe if he was a C but I just don't see that big a raise unless he has a really spectacular year. 

I can see Sven (and Grandlund) thriving this upcoming season under coach Green....If Sven can stay healthy,and can come out strong out of the gate (he's a notoriously slow starter),he should be able to bag around 25 goals... A solid choice for a 2nd line LW...........I agree that $4M is too much,unless he has an absolute lights out season.

 

Granlund could wind up being the more valuable asset than Sven it he keeps on his trajectory...He's a versatile asset that can slot in in all three forward positions,and can produce offensively....Possibly a Sami Pahlsson type player...If he has another strong season,Canucks should lock this guy up on a long term deal...Has the tools to be a great support player to the emerging core.

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I like Baer and Granlund as much as anyone else on these boards, but expecting them to get 60-70 points for the upcoming season is only setting ourselves up for massive disappointment. Baer has tremendous talent, but I'm not sure he fulfills it all - I agree with some who say that he will be a good second player (top six, still, not bad). I think this season, he'll hit 20 goals for sure (assuming he can stay relatively healthy). He's played like 69 and 68 games the last two seasons, which were his full seasons. So if he can get 18 goals in a 68 game season, what does he get if he can stay healthy and play 80? I think he can produce upwards of 22-25 goals in his career, and probably peak at about 55-60 points max, which is pretty good. I'd be surprised if he produces anything more than that honestly. 

 

As for Granlund, I was pleasantly surprised that he produced as well as he did last season. I am expecting him to produce similar numbers, if not a slight improvement on them. I think he's a very good third line player, and a tweener for a second line player. He had 19 goals, and 32 points last season in 69 games played. I think if he had a little bit more powerplay time, as well as for Baer, they would produce a little bit more. I think Granlund can hit 22-25 goals as well eventually, peaking at about 45-50 points. 

 

I like both players, and I think they're going to be very good complimentary pieces moving forward, which is what you need to build a team. Not every player on the team is going to be a superstar, there isn't enough ice, or puck to go around for that. Benning's doing a good job. Now, get that Horvat contract done ASAP! 

 

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13 hours ago, appleboy said:

Let's not forget that Granlund played with a bad wrist.  I think that 50 points is a reasonable expectation for both Baer and Granlund.

You can build a team with 50 point players. We could have 7 guys hit 50 points next year.

Yeah. i agree as well. I think for Baer, if he's getting more ice time, more pp time, and playing with Bo, I think 50 points is a reasonable expectation. I think he may even achieve slightly better than just 50 points - maybe in the 50-53 point range, assuming again, he stays relatively healthy this upcoming season. I think Green's going to give him every offensive opportunity to shine and succeed, and he should take that and run with it. 

 

Granlund I think may not get to 50 points this season, depending on who he's playing with. If it's Sutter, his point totals may regress. lol. All jokes aside, I think Granlund could hit about 40-45 points this season. 22-23 goals, 22-23 assists sound reasonable point totals for him. Those aren't bad numbers, considering he will most likely play on the third line. Lots of competition for spots this coming training camp with Gagner coming in, wondering who's going to be exposed. We can't have everyone on the team, some players are going to be on waivers, and others sent down to the AHL. 

 

 

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I really hope we do not over pay for Baer... He has some skill but he is small, slow and a non factor physically. He has shown a bit of a knack for going to the net if he is with line mates who can carry the puck for him. But over all he is very one dimensional and easily countered when he has the puck. Soft contract or trade bait imho.

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3 minutes ago, Canucklehead73 said:

I really hope we do not over pay for Baer... He has some skill but he is small, slow and a non factor physically. He has shown a bit of a knack for going to the net if he is with line mates who can carry the puck for him. But over all he is very one dimensional and easily countered when he has the puck. Soft contract or trade bait imho.

He is actually quite solid (hard to knock off puck), is one of the faster Canucks (even his draft year scouting report used the term "explosive" - Google is your friend) and he scores most of his goals in the tough areas where physically matters.

 

Not sure, therefore, I find agreement to any of your main points on this player. 

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18 hours ago, drummerboy said:

What is your point?  

I said like them too. 

I think both were pretty good trades. 

 

Im just saying, thinking they will be 65/70 point players is overly optimistic. 

I see them both being around 50 give or take a few.  

I'm with you.  Hes projecting both to achieve high level 1st line player points.  They both have upside and I'm thrilled with what we gave up (or didn't) to get them, but I don't see either getting to that level.  Likely both solid 2nd line players at best.

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On 04/08/2017 at 1:00 PM, Katobaron said:

I didn't mind Raymond while he was here but so far Baertschi has shown more push back in a couple years than Raymond did in his whole career.

Baer shows more willingness to play inside the perimeter which is good. We shall see I guess. 

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