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[Discussion] A great article for the budding GM

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Just a great article on the amount of picks vs draft success.............well worth the read!

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-value-of-acquiring-nhl-draft-picks-at-the-trade-deadline/

 

The reason I have posted this is first off, the amount of discussion around trading vets for picks during a rebuild and secondly to illustrate why Benning's success has improved at the draft table compared to say Gillis or other GM's that continually trade picks for promises.........

 

No other great opinion, just wanted to share this with you......it is a little older now, but it does bring home the point.

 

 

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Linden vey a 2nd 

phillip Larsen a 5th 

I'm sure I'm missing a few picks for projects?

Some of same people defending the virtanen pick would be going nuts if gillis pick him. (I liked the virtanen pick he's the type of player this team has needed. )

 

bennings drafted better than most of his predecessors in Vancouver because his NHL team has been well a franchise  worst that makes it a lot easier than when your team is consistently  winning presidents trophies. 

Draft depth plays a big role too.

His draft capabilitys shouldn't be judged until atleast one of his picks turns into a full time nhler.

He was a scout and a pretty good one before becoming a gm so that also helps. 

That said Drafting isn't the problem  with JB the redundant third and fourt liners that get signed and depth player for a roster of depth players is, his FEAR to use some of the young guys that have paid there dues and reward them is, He's provided very  littlle incentive to the farm players since they continually get passed over for the likes of megna Chaput shore Larsen vey Boucher brumistrov wierdcoat. 

 

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

 

Edited by combover
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1 hour ago, combover said:

Linden vey a 2nd 

phillip Larsen a 5th 

I'm sure I'm missing a few picks for projects?

Some of same people defending the virtanen pick would be going nuts if gillis pick him. (I liked the virtanen pick he's the type of player this team has needed. )

 

bennings drafted better than most of his predecessors in Vancouver because his NHL team has been well a franchise  worst that makes it a lot easier than when your team is consistently  winning presidents trophies. 

Draft depth plays a big role too.

His draft capabilitys shouldn't be judged until atleast one of his picks turns into a full time nhler.

He was a scout and a pretty good one before becoming a gm so that also helps. 

That said Drafting isn't the problem  with JB the redundant third and fourt liners that get signed and depth player for a roster of depth players is, his FEAR to use some of the young guys that have paid there dues and reward them is, He's provided very  littlle incentive to the farm players since they continually get passed over for the likes of megna Chaput shore Larsen vey Boucher brumistrov wierdcoat. 

 

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

 

That same list (made up of eastern based journalists i believe) also listed McPhee as top 20 before he had even done anything as GM of the LVGK. I think Gillis receives too much flack but he certainly wasn't the best GM in the league but he still won the award.

 

Benning inherited nothing except for Bo Horvat. He needs time for his picks to develop - we weren't lucky enough to draft Laine, Matthews, or McDavid.

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Great article. The graph really shows how terrible the Canucks drafting under Gillis was. A monkey pulling names out of a hat would have likely ended up with more successful draft picks than Gillis did in his time

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I really liked this part.

 

Quote

Despite the hubris and appeal to authority that still permeates hockey circles with regards to personnel decisions, there’s ultimately a significant level of inherent volatility when attempting to predict how 18-year-old kids will wind up developing both physically and mentally. The reality is that as smart as you think you are as a collective brain trust, you’ll probably wind up being wrong more times than you’re right.

This makes the sheer volume of lottery tickets you can accumulate essentially just as important as the actual scouting process used to make the selections themselves (all things being equal, assuming a certain baseline level of competence and understanding of what are translatable skills).

CbrsD4nVAAAgX8w.png

It’s interesting that the Blackhawks show up near the top of the list. While GM Stan Bowman has deservedly received praise for the job he’s done in finding valuable contributors beyond the first round of the draft, a large part of that has been the sheer volume of picks with which he’s had to work. Since Bowman took over, no team has had more draft picks than Chicago and that strategy was most prominent in 2011 when he managed to come away with Brandon Saad and Andrew Shaw, despite whiffing on his first three picks in that draft.

 

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9 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I really liked this part.

 

 

I think this chart shows how it's extremely important, once the elite core is established (Sedins, Kesler, Edler, Luongo) the GM needs to move out complimentary pieces, no matter how painful to the fan base, for draft picks.  This will keep the elite core in place, while bringing in young ELC guys (and cheap UFAs) to fill in the other spots. Like the chart shows, success in the draft is directly related to the volume of picks.  

Benning needs to get more picks

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14 hours ago, combover said:

Linden vey a 2nd 

phillip Larsen a 5th 

I'm sure I'm missing a few picks for projects?

Some of same people defending the virtanen pick would be going nuts if gillis pick him. (I liked the virtanen pick he's the type of player this team has needed. )

 

bennings drafted better than most of his predecessors in Vancouver because his NHL team has been well a franchise  worst that makes it a lot easier than when your team is consistently  winning presidents trophies. 

Draft depth plays a big role too.

His draft capabilitys shouldn't be judged until atleast one of his picks turns into a full time nhler.

He was a scout and a pretty good one before becoming a gm so that also helps. 

That said Drafting isn't the problem  with JB the redundant third and fourt liners that get signed and depth player for a roster of depth players is, his FEAR to use some of the young guys that have paid there dues and reward them is, He's provided very  littlle incentive to the farm players since they continually get passed over for the likes of megna Chaput shore Larsen vey Boucher brumistrov wierdcoat. 

 

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

 

He doesn't make coaching decisions although i feel it's more of a group effort. Voted worst gm is not really his concern. Gillis winning the award may be questionable.

Edited by Monteeun

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20 hours ago, combover said:

Linden vey a 2nd 

phillip Larsen a 5th 

I'm sure I'm missing a few picks for projects?

Some of same people defending the virtanen pick would be going nuts if gillis pick him. (I liked the virtanen pick he's the type of player this team has needed. )

 

bennings drafted better than most of his predecessors in Vancouver because his NHL team has been well a franchise  worst that makes it a lot easier than when your team is consistently  winning presidents trophies. 

Draft depth plays a big role too.

His draft capabilitys shouldn't be judged until atleast one of his picks turns into a full time nhler.

He was a scout and a pretty good one before becoming a gm so that also helps. 

That said Drafting isn't the problem  with JB the redundant third and fourt liners that get signed and depth player for a roster of depth players is, his FEAR to use some of the young guys that have paid there dues and reward them is, He's provided very  littlle incentive to the farm players since they continually get passed over for the likes of megna Chaput shore Larsen vey Boucher brumistrov wierdcoat. 

 

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

 

How about a 2nd for Sven Baertschi? I'd say that was a pick for a project well spent.

 

I don't think you actually read the article. It states within it that the difference between a late first and a second is very little. So if you take out the 3 high picks Benning has drafted, his record is still pretty good when it comes to drafting. Btw Tryamkin was a full time nhler.

 

Bennings doing what he should be. He's giving prospects the time they need to develop. Meanwhile he's gotten young players while giving little in return for them. Ripping off division rival Calgary twice with Granlund and Baertschi is just icing on the cake

 

It was on Desjardin to play the youth more and he didn't want to out of fear of losing his job. It's not Bennings choice as to whether Megna is going to get time with the Sedins or not. That is strictly a coaching decision.

 

The fact you like the Virtanen pick I find baffling. Probably the biggest blunder Benning has made draft wise. I think he could end up similar to David Booth which is decent. That being said it was considered an off the charts pick at the time and he's been passed by several people taken after him. Virtanen lacks the hockey iq that most top line forwards have. His ceiling is likely a middle 6 forward. At 6th overall you are hoping for something better than that.

 

Canucks should be taking risks on players with higher ceilings. Players like Pettersson.

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1 minute ago, HockeydownUnder said:

How about a 2nd for Sven Baertschi? I'd say that was a pick for a project well spent.

 

I don't think you actually read the article. It states within it that the difference between a late first and a second is very little. So if you take out the 3 high picks Benning has drafted, his record is still pretty good when it comes to drafting. Btw Tryamkin was a full time nhler.

 

Bennings doing what he should be. He's giving prospects the time they need to develop. Meanwhile he's gotten young players while giving little in return for them. Ripping off division rival Calgary twice with Granlund and Baertschi is just icing on the cake

 

It was on Desjardin to play the youth more and he didn't want to out of fear of losing his job. It's not Bennings choice as to whether Megna is going to get time with the Sedins or not. That is strictly a coaching decision.

 

The fact you like the Virtanen pick I find baffling. Probably the biggest blunder Benning has made draft wise. I think he could end up similar to David Booth which is decent. That being said it was considered an off the charts pick at the time and he's been passed by several people taken after him. Virtanen lacks the hockey iq that most top line forwards have. His ceiling is likely a middle 6 forward. At 6th overall you are hoping for something better than that.

 

Canucks should be taking risks on players with higher ceilings. Players like Pettersson.

Baer is not an impact player though.  He got what 35 points?  The second we gave up for him had a far better chance of becoming impactful.  Trading picks for other teams' castoffs is not smart.  We need more picks, not less.  

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Baer is not an impact player though.  He got what 35 points?  The second we gave up for him had a far better chance of becoming impactful.  Trading picks for other teams' castoffs is not smart.  We need more picks, not less.  

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

About 44% is the odd for a second round pick to be a low level nhl player. Also that second round pick was the 53rd pick in the draft. Close to being a 3rd rounder. 

 

Considering Baertschi got 35 points in 68 games on a lousy team, that is easily worth a late second.

 

And of course no team would give up a second for Cassels or Subban so why would you even bring it up? 

 

Sven was a 13 overall pick that demanded a trade from Calgary. Cassles and Subban were drafted in the 3rd and 4th round respectively and haven't shown anything to indicate they are worth a second

Edited by HockeydownUnder

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On 22/08/2017 at 6:57 PM, Alflives said:

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

You're probably right however I would not be surprised if a team took a chance on the 4th highest goal scoring defense man in the AHL, he is after all an AHL All star and only 22. If he can figure out his defensive game he could be an impactful player still. That being said a late 2nd would not be "too" far out of the question even though i think his worth is 3rd or 4th rounder.

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On 21/08/2017 at 10:26 PM, combover said:

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

Benning will prove you and the haters wrong within 3 years, you need to get to know your teams prospects a little better .

 

There's plenty to be excited about, all thanks to Benning......and Horvat!

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7 hours ago, canuckmen84 said:

You're probably right however I would not be surprised if a team took a chance on the 4th highest goal scoring defense man in the AHL, he is after all an AHL All star and only 22. If he can figure out his defensive game he could be an impactful player still. That being said a late 2nd would not be "too" far out of the question even though i think his worth is 3rd or 4th rounder.

Would the Canucks give up Subban for a 3 or 4th though? They wouldn't. His value hadn't changed much since bring drafted.

 

He could fetch a similar level forward prospect from a team that doesn't have room up front. Thing is Canucks have room for Subban if he can put it together. They need offense from the blueline. The Canucks are likely better off holding on to him unless someone overpays

Edited by HockeydownUnder
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On 2017-08-22 at 5:57 PM, Alflives said:

Baer is not an impact player though.  He got what 35 points?  The second we gave up for him had a far better chance of becoming impactful.  Trading picks for other teams' castoffs is not smart.  We need more picks, not less.  

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

Considering 40-50 points is a 2nd line production, and Sven is only 24, what exactly makes you think he won't be an impact player? I suspect most GM's would be quite happy getting a Baertschi in the 2nd round considering how many are complete busts.

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On 2017-08-22 at 6:10 PM, HockeydownUnder said:

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

About 44% is the odd for a second round pick to be a low level nhl player. Also that second round pick was the 53rd pick in the draft. Close to being a 3rd rounder. 

 

Considering Baertschi got 35 points in 68 games on a lousy team, that is easily worth a late second.

 

And of course no team would give up a second for Cassels or Subban so why would you even bring it up? 

 

Sven was a 13 overall pick that demanded a trade from Calgary. Cassles and Subban were drafted in the 3rd and 4th round respectively and haven't shown anything to indicate they are worth a second

That percentage is based on playing at least 50 NHL games. There was another that had it at 30% to play 100 NHL games, and yet another that had it at 25% to play 200 NHL games. The 200 game article said he chose 200 games as qualifying for an NHL pension in his opinion "a successful NHL career". None of them spoke to the quality of the successful players. But Mason Raymond, with over 500 NHL games, would be considered a very successful 2nd round pick.

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1 hour ago, Baggins said:

That percentage is based on playing at least 50 NHL games. There was another that had it at 30% to play 100 NHL games, and yet another that had it at 25% to play 200 NHL games. The 200 game article said he chose 200 games as qualifying for an NHL pension in his opinion "a successful NHL career". None of them spoke to the quality of the successful players. But Mason Raymond, with over 500 NHL games, would be considered a very successful 2nd round pick.

Exactly! Sven for a late second is a bargain. He's only 24 years old and he's already played over 200 games. I can see him having a career similar to Raymonds. Winger putting up close to .5 points per game over around 500 games.

 

By 24 Raymond had played just over 200 games and put up 97 points

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On 2017-08-21 at 10:58 PM, I.Am.Ironman said:

That same list (made up of eastern based journalists i believe) also listed McPhee as top 20 before he had even done anything as GM of the LVGK. I think Gillis receives too much flack but he certainly wasn't the best GM in the league but he still won the award.

 

Benning inherited nothing except for Bo Horvat. He needs time for his picks to develop - we weren't lucky enough to draft Laine, Matthews, or McDavid.

It was from Hockey-Graphs website. Calling them "journalists" might be a little generous.

 

https://hockey-graphs.com/about/

 

It was written by....

 

Carolyn Wilke

Best known for her research into salary and player valuation, Carolyn is the managing hockey editor at FanRag Sports. She also co-hosts a tongue-in-cheek podcast on the Dallas Stars called Deep in the Heart of Hockey. Find Carolyn on twitter

 

and this guy who isn't listed on their site.....

 

https://twitter.com/yolo_pinyato

 

Edit:

I'll just add their "article" was largely based on goal increase/decrease by team. Considering Benning inherited a declining team loaded with ntc's and empty prospect pool I'm not so sure that's as much a reflection Benning as it is Gillis. It was Gillis after all that left the team in that mess.

Edited by Baggins
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On 8/22/2017 at 5:57 PM, Alflives said:

Baer is not an impact player though.  He got what 35 points?  The second we gave up for him had a far better chance of becoming impactful.  Trading picks for other teams' castoffs is not smart.  We need more picks, not less.  

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

"Baer" has more goals in his first two full NHL season than Daniel Sedin had playing on a much better team (scored far more goals).   
"Baer" is a former high first round pick who put up 2 points per game in CHL in draft +1 year .... something VERY few players have done over past decade and may be showing that promise and you think he is a "cast off"?!    

 

He is not a "cast off" - he is a premier offensive talent who simply took a bit longer to find this professional game and could be poised to really break out.    


Good grief.   

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On 22/08/2017 at 0:26 AM, combover said:

Linden vey a 2nd 

phillip Larsen a 5th 

I'm sure I'm missing a few picks for projects?

Some of same people defending the virtanen pick would be going nuts if gillis pick him. (I liked the virtanen pick he's the type of player this team has needed. )

 

bennings drafted better than most of his predecessors in Vancouver because his NHL team has been well a franchise  worst that makes it a lot easier than when your team is consistently  winning presidents trophies. 

Draft depth plays a big role too.

His draft capabilitys shouldn't be judged until atleast one of his picks turns into a full time nhler.

He was a scout and a pretty good one before becoming a gm so that also helps. 

That said Drafting isn't the problem  with JB the redundant third and fourt liners that get signed and depth player for a roster of depth players is, his FEAR to use some of the young guys that have paid there dues and reward them is, He's provided very  littlle incentive to the farm players since they continually get passed over for the likes of megna Chaput shore Larsen vey Boucher brumistrov wierdcoat. 

 

Good scout maybe good gm absolutely not. Voted worst gm in the NHL, something no other dishonour aCanucks gm has been named. 

To achieve so many franchise worsts as gm on a team thats had it struggles isn't a good thing. I doubt he'll be the gm when his latest pick makes the NHL in 4 years.

 

I understand that if you lose you get the higher picks....but Bennings 1 st rounders with the exception of Boeser have yet to play a game in the NHL.  A lot of that has to do with its too early yet, only franchise or superstars play right away or draft plus one and make it.  In two more years we can revisit how he's done in the first round, but past that he could be considered exceptional.  As far as the media picking on Benning you can also find articles that are not so hard on him, especially more recently.   In a few more years he could be lauded as a mastermind, all we have to do is pick a franchise player and the will be viewed as brilliant.  Just ask TO, they went from wtf are they doing to back pats all around when Mathews fell on their lap.

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