Mafia: Switch

[NotMyBurroughs]

Why zfetch why. Sorry 112!

[Blue Jay 22]

I apologize for keeping quiet last night. My R3 role was sheriff, and I wanted to keep quiet so that I wouldn't be an MK target. 

 

A 3P or mafia must go this round. I suspect that the 3P are closer to winning this game than mafia.

[Blue Jay 22]

@Time Lord who did you watch last night?

[J-23]

Vote DM

 

Also I don't think the switcher role switches your status from TP to Mafia or from Mafia to TP. I think it only switches your roles.

[Blue Jay 22]

DM high chance of being 3P/mafia. I have not experienced a faction change at all, and it should be clear that he has alluded to he has experienced a faction change himself.

[Blue Jay 22]

Stamkos twin blade claim. Believable or not believable?

[Blue Jay 22]

At minimum, 2 people are not TP.

[Blue Jay 22]

J23

TL

BJ

DM

Stamkos

 

5 players alive. Possible scenarios:

 

1 mafia, 1 3P

1 mafia, 2 3P

 

[Time Lord]

8 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

@Time Lord who did you watch last night?

*track

 

2 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

Stamkos twin blade claim. Believable or not believable?

I tracked Stamkos and he didn't visit anyone. I was hoping to catch him submitting the mafia kill or anything really to show that he's lying, but so far his claim checks out.

 

Anyways I'm not entirely sure where we stand anymore. Obviously there's at least one mafia, and if you think that faction switching is a thing, I'd guess that the original mafia was J-23 and DM was converted. But then what's that other rising force that Zfetch alluded to? 

 

I think one of DM/J-23 is mafia and the other is 3P but there's no definitive reasoning for why one of them is more likely 3P than mafia. And if it's 1 mafia and 1 3P then the mafia is a bigger threat since they have a kill. But I'm worried that the 3P has 2, in which case you would be 3P too...

 

I could vote you, DM, or J-23 right now but how can I choose one over the other when this is all just speculation?

 

In terms of posting, I think DM has been the scummiest, followed by J-23, then you. So maybe DM is the right choice. But it's convenient that you and J-23 are pushing the DM lynch right away...

 

[Time Lord]

So Stamkos, BJ, and I can't be mafia.

 

I'm not 3P and Stamkos is unlikely to be because the switchers likely have something to do with the 3P.

 

And since we don't know who the bigger threat is between the mafia and the 3P, it's not wise to lynch a confirmed non-mafia in BJ.

 

So that puts it between DM and J-23.

 

Vote J-23 I want to see where this goes

[Blue Jay 22]

We could always have Stamkos Twin blade DM, and then Vote someone else.

[Blue Jay 22]

At the very least, I don't think J23 is mafia. He is a proven switcher so I doubt Zfetch would give that type of role to a mafia since it would only benefit the TP in getting different roles.

 

@J-23 What is your role now and last nightfall action?

[Time Lord]

1 hour ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

We could always have Stamkos Twin blade DM, and then Vote someone else.

Using the TB might be dangerous at this point because it will end the game, and based on who is still alive, it might end in a loss. But if he doesn't TB anyone, next round will be a final 3 that should be winnable.

[Blue Jay 22]

18 minutes ago, Time Lord said:

Using the TB might be dangerous at this point because it will end the game, and based on who is still alive, it might end in a loss. But if he doesn't TB anyone, next round will be a final 3 that should be winnable.

True, but I'm also starting to question the legitimacy of your watcher claim and kind of want to vote you out as well this round. 

[Blue Jay 22]

In terms of claims, Stamkos's claim carries more risk because at any point in the game, a person could tell him to TB someone and if he didn't, we would know he was lying. With that said, it is weird to have a TB role in a game without a consistent every round sheriff. Though I don't view it as an impossible role because at one point in this game, I was a sheriff myself. Claiming TB carries more risk than say...watcher.

 

Part of it is due to process of elimination, but also because I question the validation of TL's watcher claim, but I suspect that he carries the highest odds of flipping mafia in this game. In terms of process of elimination, I don't view J23 as having high mafia probability because I can validate his switcher actions, and though I think the switchers in this game can have 3P probability, I don't believe that they would turn mafia because that could turn non LYLO situations into game ending situations. If there are 2 3P left, then its more than likely that J23 is a 3P. Mafia, however? I don't think so.

 

That leaves TL or Stamkos as being the 1 mafia. I already laid out how I think Stamkos's role claim carries more believability than TL's. So in my opinion, the remaining players are:

 

J23 - 3P/TP 50/50

TL - Mafia/TP 60/40

BJ - TP

DM - 3P 100%

Stamkos - TP/Mafia 60/40

[Blue Jay 22]

@Stamkos and @J-23 get in here.

[Blue Jay 22]

Vote DM

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

In terms of claims, Stamkos's claim carries more risk because at any point in the game, a person could tell him to TB someone and if he didn't, we would know he was lying. With that said, it is weird to have a TB role in a game without a consistent every round sheriff. Though I don't view it as an impossible role because at one point in this game, I was a sheriff myself. Claiming TB carries more risk than say...watcher.

 

Part of it is due to process of elimination, but also because I question the validation of TL's watcher claim, but I suspect that he carries the highest odds of flipping mafia in this game. In terms of process of elimination, I don't view J23 as having high mafia probability because I can validate his switcher actions, and though I think the switchers in this game can have 3P probability, I don't believe that they would turn mafia because that could turn non LYLO situations into game ending situations. If there are 2 3P left, then its more than likely that J23 is a 3P. Mafia, however? I don't think so.

 

That leaves TL or Stamkos as being the 1 mafia. I already laid out how I think Stamkos's role claim carries more believability than TL's. So in my opinion, the remaining players are:

 

J23 - 3P/TP 50/50

TL - Mafia/TP 60/40

BJ - TP

DM - 3P 100%

Stamkos - TP/Mafia 60/40

If I TB someone I have to be absolutely sure, and with it being a possible LYLO, it's too much risk unless I'm absolutely certain, and I'm not entirely certain. If I kill a TP, and we lynch tp, we lose. It's as simple as that.

 

Also, if DM and J23 are the 3p, then they're able to reach majority tonight, thus win the game. 

 

We can't rule anything out. 

 

Vote DM

[Blue Jay 22]

16 minutes ago, Stamkos said:

If I TB someone I have to be absolutely sure, and with it being a possible LYLO, it's too much risk unless I'm absolutely certain, and I'm not entirely certain. If I kill a TP, and we lynch tp, we lose. It's as simple as that.

 

Also, if DM and J23 are the 3p, then they're able to reach majority tonight, thus win the game. 

 

We can't rule anything out. 

 

Vote DM

Well I already know DM is not TP. I investigated him last round and he is a Switcher turned Cult Member: AKA: 3P.

 

So if you wanted to take him out and then decide on another lynch target tonight, we have that option.

[Blue Jay 22]

Probably should mention I'm a doc this round and will be self saving again tonight.