The Rebuild Kicked Off With Acquiring Bo, & Was Completed at 2019 Draft!

[Rob_Zepp]

On 4/14/2018 at 7:34 PM, CanadianRugby said:

Lind, Gadjovich & Demko aren't fictitious players.  

Benning has a history of drafting well in the 2nd round. 

Baer & other Canucks added as part of restock haven't resulted in wins, which was the only reason most of them were brought in.  

In a rebuild, nothing is more important than draft picks.  

 

The only good thing that came out of the retool is that it failed as badly as it could have.  Worst team in the league over the last 3 years, so we've been getting the top picks that we needed.  

Oh, so it is all about wins is it?    So, go ahead and ice an entire team of 18-19 year olds.   Lots of win there.    

 

You are such a blind individual - either willfully or simply don't understand a thing about the game.  EVERY team has a combination of  young talent and veterans.   They are far from the "worst team" as only idiot who just look at points and don't take into account prospects, directions, injuries, CAP space etc. etc.   There are at least a dozen teams in far worse shape than the Canucks moving forward - that makes them "worse".    

 

Don't you get tired of being wrong and whiny?   

[IBatch]

32 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Not sure how to work the point, but how does JB’s drafting record compare against the average?

 

He must be getting hits more frequently with his choices, so how would that correlate to that stat we see for how often picks make an impact in the NHL?

 

Anyone?

 

 

Its a little early to tell.  On paper and by scouting reports he's doing well based on the prospect pool, but at some point those guys either have to become roster players, or flops.  

 

I've read and heard GMs say they expect to get one roster player a draft, anyone more is a bonus.  This correlates well with the odds per each round cumulated.  I'd suggest one per year as a baseline is just acceptable, two very good, more than that unbelievable.  Its also somewhat subjective because I'd rather have one Boeser instead of three JVs . Also draft position matters a lot, obviously it's easier to get your first player if you draft top five, than in the last five.  THN does a blurb every year that levels the playing field by assigning a ranking system based on ADP,  so far Bennings being ordinary, but most of his guys are still developing, that should change soon, probably next year.

 

Next season starts as draft plus four complete.  Boeser, JV and Tryamkin have made it to the show, which is ok considering most guys need are least one or two years before making it.  If Pettersson, Demko, Juolevi and Gaudette play too than he's well past the baseline, with some quality players

add Bear and Pouliot to the mix for picks used to get players and it looks ok now too.  

 

I'd say this is the year where Bennings drafting will either start to really show, or lose some luster, but at this point anyways I will go with the scouting reports, we've got a pretty kick ass pool.. not sure if that helps

[189lb enforcers?]

Will be fun to watch Utica vs the Marlies in their playoffs.

 

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

I've never had a problem with using a second or third pick for a former high draft pick with upside, or a former low pick playing extremely well .... Second and third rounders dont usually play in the NHL, Bear, Vey, Pouliot were all low risk ventures, nobody is expecting top line or top pairing production from these guys but there is an increased expectation based on the "what we could have got instead" because undoubtedly, someone from the second or third round is going to be extraordinary, and we miss out.

 

They call them lottery tickets for a reason, once every ten picks a second rounder will have an average seven year NHL career, even less likely they will be a star.   Bear looks to be a lock for that so Benning is way ahead, even if Pouliot joins Vey (and for third rounders the odds are even more extreme).  

 

The fact Benning has found two gems in the fifth and third round in Gaudette and Tryamkin adds fodder to the "what we could of had " fire, but in reality we should be happy for both scenarios, Bear and likely Pouliot are NHLers, circumventing the odds, and Gaudette and Tryamkin are both incredible picks, fifth rounders hardly ever develop into even depth injury replacement guys. 

 

Next year should be the first year we really get to see Bennings picks come up in pairs (or droves), Pettersson and Dahlen could be the Sedin replacement strategy, Gaudette will get an extended trial period, and will likely not go down, and Juolevi plus Demko could also see action, plus possibly this year's pick.  Having Bear and Pouliot already in play makes us better than the likely return, and adds youth that's a bit older to spread out the age gap of the next core a little too.

 

 

Very good post imo.

 

It's true that solid picks in later rounds seems to fuel the idea that those Gaudette, Demko, Tryamkin type picks can be expected, when realistically they are outliers. 

 

Part of the 'problem' is that Benning broke in with a draft of Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Tryamkin, and Forsling with his first five picks.  It's still 'early' but that's a home run of a draft by any standard.  The longest shot there appears to be Demko (by virtue of simply being a goaltender and nearly impossible to project into the NHL too early) - the other 4 have all owned NHL roster spots as young players / are realistic NHL quality assets.  How good they become / whether they're players you win Stanley Cups with is somewhat pointless to debate or try to project.

 

He followed that up in 2015 with Boeser (who alone at 23 is enough,really, to call that draft a success) - and added Gaudette, Brisebois and Jasek in that draft.  Again, it's early, but Boeser has already broken out at the NHL level (hopefully can sustain that)  and Gaudette, as the top player in the NCAA has to be seen as a bonafide bluechip as well - while Brisebois is a reasonable AHL talent and Jasek is making waves in short order in Utica.    Hard to imagine Gaudette failiing to secure an NHL career - which is the standard of the percentages we assign to picks (not whether they become 'stars' or not).  Clearly through two years he was killing it relative to an expected mean.  Also signed Sautner as a FA that summer.

 

The 2016 trade deadline was a disappointment - from Hamhuis and Vrbata to the unwillingness of other assets to waive - and probably the low point in this regime's drafting with Juolevi possiblty the only NHL asset out of that draft - although Lockwood was also a very good pick who's been limited by injuries but when healthy has shown well in the NCAA and commanded a spot on the US WJC team.   Added Stecher in free agency that summer (with obviously the value of a 'successful' outlier pick).

 

2017 there is not much point trying to project aside from Pettersson obviously earning bluechip status in his historic SweHL showing while Lind has also maintained his trajectory.  Gadjovich might be harder to assess, but did earn that Canada WJC spot.

 

 

The other factor though that is generally underplayed is that we don't know who remained unpicked on draft lists - we don't know if extra picks would have resulted in anything of value - or whether the team 'missed' out on good players as the perception that they didn't have 'enough' picks suggests.

 

When you dig in - the reality is that although they drafted 5 or 6 or 7 NHL players in their first few drafts, they also took players like Carl Neill (certainly looked good at the time, and in his +1 season) but selected Carl Neill before Gaudette..... If Benning hadn't managed that magic of making something of Jannick Weber lol, there may be no Gaudette - or they may have taken him with their next pick at 174 and then taken Jasek in the next round (and what the team would have 'missed out' on would be Tate Olson).     It's easy to suggest that 'if only we had another pick we coulda taken Troy Terry and Gaudette' -  but it all hinges on something we don't know - who the team's scouting had on their lists at those times.

 

In the end, as much as a guy like Benning loves to have those additional picks, the reality is that (despite it being early) the team has already gotten more outliers in his time than can be expected, but believing that there were that many more in the works isn't necessarily realistic.  Benning knows this - so when he lets one of those go in favour of someone they've been able to pro-scout in those draft plus seasons, overall those prospects should be weighed against the mean value of those picks (which are all longshots) - not against the impression that outliers were lost - as a result of Pouliot for example (or by virture of 'failing' to get a pick for Vanek/Holm).    My opinion is that all other things being equal, you take a Brendan Leipsic over a 3rd round pick every time - and in this context, particularly when you have the kind of forward spots opening up that the Canucks do.  The same imo was true in the wake of an extremely scarce prospect pool - the sense in adding the Baertschis etc was clear - the team lacked propsects at all levels and needed to uptick their odds where possible.  I think they did a good job of maximizing both sides of that equation.

 

I hope they can add a pick or two this draft - but at a certain point you simply don't need the volume - what you need is quality - and it's literally impossible to argue that they haven't extracted the quality they 'should' have out of their draft record.

 

 

That said - I don't see a re-re-whatchamacallit being 99.5% re-re-ed. 

I think there are still a handful of spots at the NHL level that stand to be upgraded - some held by placeholders, some vacated spots - the team may have good young potential assets to step into those spots, but until they're realistically filled by NHL assets, that re-re-meter sits far below 99.5%

 

 

 

[oldnews]

1 hour ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Will be fun to watch Utica vs the Marlies in their playoffs.

 

It will be - but at the same time, it's misleading to believe those are 'prospect pools' head to head.

 

For example - Utica went to the Calder Finals in 2015 - but if someone believed that was on the backs of the Canucks 'prospect pool' they'd be mislead.

 

Markstrom, Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Baertschi played (big) roles in that run, but realistically, so did guys like Cal O'Reilly, Grenier, Bobby Sanguinetti (R,I.P Desi), Alex Friesen.

The Canucks kinda maximized that slim prospect pool to that point, but Utica's success wasn't really a sign of a boon at the AHL level.

 

This year - Boucher, Chaput, Wiercioch, MacEwen, Holm..... are more definitive of Utica than our 'prospect pool'.  Goldobin spent 30ish games there, Sautner had a callup...

 

 

But whateve - what I'm really excited to see is how Jasek and Dahlen do.  Both arrived to Utica at the 11th hour and hit the ground running and could be a big boost to that team, as could Motte, Lind and the return of Goldobin.

 

The Marlies are the more touted regular season team, but as often happens in the A, they lost key players like Dermott and Kapanen (and even Andreas Johnson) to the Leafs who are still alive in the playoffs.  For them they'll still have their key players - veterans like Ben Smith, Chris Mueller, Miro Aaltonen - but unlike us, they've had more migration out as opposed to in.  Who knows wheher those things in the short run are enough to tilt things enough for Utica, but here's hoping.  If they manage to knock off Toronto, we'll have to revise the story to forget the absence of some of their better prospects lol.

 

 

[spook007]

13 hours ago, Alflives said:

I like your comment about the “clock is ticking”.  There is a definite time period for the length of a rebuild.  Then the new core group need to play, to see what they are.  Once we get beyond that time frame, that core is getting old.

i wonder how long the time is for the rebuild to be completed?  7 years?  Then on to the next one?

It true that the clock is ticking... its a sporting business, and without a winning team you don't sell tickets, merchandise or TV-slots. Goes without saying.

But I think you'll be hard pressed Alf to find anyone within the management of any team, putting numbers on the length of a rebuild.

 

Maybe behind closed doors there is a plan, but a few reasons stand out, why you never mention a specific number.

1. If they say we are competitive again in 5 years, season ticket holders may, or likely will say, see you in 3 then.

2. You put pressure on yourself to bring up youth players, that you may feel are not ready yet.

3. Finally, you never load the gun that shoots you... If it wasn't finished by the time mentioned, it'll likely be adios amigos...

 

Looking at where we are at now, baring a few major surprises, I guess we are still looking at 2-3 years before we become relevant again. Next year can surprise both positively and negatively.... guess that depends on the eyes that sees.

 

Pettersson may take the league by storm, and a few others may do damage as well, or it could be us bottoming out after the Sedin exit. Nobody know, but I fully expect us to head north in the standings within two years. If we are still bottom feeder in 2 years, I think JB's plan has failed. Not saying we should be in the play offs in two years, but we should be higher in the standings. Time will tell...

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, spook007 said:

It true that the clock is ticking... its a sporting business, and without a winning team you don't sell tickets, merchandise or TV-slots. Goes without saying.

But I think you'll be hard pressed Alf to find anyone within the management of any team, putting numbers on the length of a rebuild.

 

Maybe behind closed doors there is a plan, but a few reasons stand out, why you never mention a specific number.

1. If they say we are competitive again in 5 years, season ticket holders may, or likely will say, see you in 3 then.

2. You put pressure on yourself to bring up youth players, that you may feel are not ready yet.

3. Finally, you never load the gun that shoots you... If it wasn't finished by the time mentioned, it'll likely be adios amigos...

 

Looking at where we are at now, baring a few major surprises, I guess we are still looking at 2-3 years before we become relevant again. Next year can surprise both positively and negatively.... guess that depends on the eyes that sees.

 

Pettersson may take the league by storm, and a few others may do damage as well, or it could be us bottoming out after the Sedin exit. Nobody know, but I fully expect us to head north in the standings within two years. If we are still bottom feeder in 2 years, I think JB's plan has failed. Not saying we should be in the play offs in two years, but we should be higher in the standings. Time will tell...

Sounds good, but I'm thinking the guys like Bo, Sutter, Baer, Tanev, and Guddy will be too old to help with the rebuilt team if time carries on too much.

[spook007]

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

Sounds good, but I'm thinking the guys like Bo, Sutter, Baer, Tanev, and Guddy will be too old to help with the rebuilt team if time carries on too much.

That could be very true.

 Hopefully the rebuild won't take too long, as I expect Bo to be playing a lot longer. In two or three years he will be the senior statesman in the locker room, and that will be a brilliant man to lead the room. After all he is still only 23. 

But I get where you are coming from....

 

If we are relevant in say 3 years, Bo will have 5 years at the top to lead the way. If Brock and EP live up to the high expectations we have, as well as a few more drafts, trades we could be golden during those 5 years.... At least here's hoping.

[bloodycanuckleheads]

On 12/04/2018 at 8:33 PM, bloodycanuckleheads said:

When you posted this on Oct. 3rd, 2017, it was 80% done.  Now it's 99.5%.  So, we can calculate how much longer we have to suck....

 

191 days has gotten us 19.5%.  That means it will take only 4.897 more days before our team is fixed!!!  That's Tuesday afternoon!

 

The rebuild will be finally over on Tuesday afternoon everyone!!!  Get ready to party!

It's Tuesday afternoon - our rebuild is at 100% now!  We are done people!  The wait is finally over.  We are a contender once again!  Woo hoo!!!

[Nuxfanabroad]

Any coach worth his salt will tell ya every player's gotta' give 110%, eh?  :^)

[Nuxfanabroad]

EP's brilliance is neutralizing our stealth?!

[flickyoursedin]

You’d think the maple leafs will be calling up Benning on Tanev all summer long. He really could have helped that defence out. If he wasn’t hurt :p.

[189lb enforcers?]

2 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

You’d think the maple leafs will be calling up Benning on Tanev all summer long. He really could have helped that defence out. If he wasn’t hurt :p.

Tanev’s IR cap savings 

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

You’d think the maple leafs will be calling up Benning on Tanev all summer long. He really could have helped that defence out. If he wasn’t hurt :p.

even a depth defenseman would have made the Leafs chances more realistic

 

they're getting ripped, and rightly so, for leaning far too heavily on the likes of Gardiner. 

well they also rolled with a 21 year old rookie in Dermott, who needed to be heavily sheltered (over 20% higher ozone starts than anyone else on that blueline) - and he still looked overwhelmed.  that also contributed to being overmatched in their top 4 (even moreso as a result)....

 

But the geniuses behind the Shanaplan saw fit to spend a 2nd round pick on a depth forward rental.

even a relativel inexpensive depth D would likely have fared better than the rookie, and regardless, certainly wouldn't have required sheltering, and would not have cost as much as their rental...

But the Shanaplan did neither.

 

I don't think they have the assets to acquire Tanev.

.

[Gaudette Celly]

On 4/16/2018 at 6:27 AM, aGENT said:

Just look at how many mid and late round picks TOR has playing on their (currently playoff dominating) team, from their 11 billion picks, for all the evidence you need. 

Dermott for one was their own pick.  Don't think any of the #allthepickz they got is anywhere near being an NHL player yet, or even projecting.  A number of those picks they got they then flipped for old players and rentals -- something the Leaf adorers conveniently overlook.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Why bother yakkin' bout the Fleas?

 

Still think Matthews resembles Elmer Fudd...

[aGENT]

8 hours ago, oldnews said:

I don't think they have the assets to acquire Tanev.

.

They have them. Whether they're willing to spend them is another question though. 

 

I'd imagine Liljegrin, Carrick and their 1st would be in the ball park. 

 

They'd probably balk at Liljegrin but as you say, there's likely no deal without him and they're unlikely to spend him. 

 

[Gaudette Celly]

8 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Why bother yakkin' bout the Fleas?

 

Still think Matthews resembles Elmer Fudd...

But with piggy nostrils.

[189lb enforcers?]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

They have them. Whether they're willing to spend them is another question though. 

 

I'd imagine Liljegrin, Carrick and their 1st would be in the ball park. 

 

They'd probably balk at Liljegrin but as you say, there's likely no deal without him and they're unlikely to spend him. 

 

I agree. 

 

The Leafs are in no rush to part with top prospects anymore than the Canucks are. 

 

Why would the Leafs trade for the epitome of an injury-prone Dman? Seriously, why? 

 

Two seasons removed from a full-out tank and these guys are expecting them to sell the farm for a defensive Dman? It’s ridiculous.

 

Sure, they need help on D, all most as much as their rebuild-rivals, the Canucks, but, like the Canucks, the Leafs can buy UFA Dmen from all over the planet until their kids can take over. 

 

I’be been looking forward to a Tanev trade for a few seasons now... just to enjoy the entertainment factor of this site’s posters who seem to think that he is worth an equivalent of OJ and a first and, well, more depending on which poster I happen upon. 

 

Last year, the kid Leafs took the Prez winner to game 7 OT and played what was largely considered as some of the best hockey the playoffs offered hockey fans. This year, they took the Bruins, arguably the hottest, most dominant NHL team, to a game 7.

 

Those were two fairly unlucky matchups for the young Leafs, but impressive showings for a Tank-plus 2 years team. Should we be at all surprised that a team 2 seasons from a Tank are not quite ready to compete for the Cup, with strength and depth at all positions? No. 

 

Would Tanev have helped? Sure.

Is he worth selling the farm for? No, not for a rebuilding team, or a team just barely post-rebuild. 

 

What I find ridiculous on here is the concept that the Leafs should and would trade their rebuild effort for a Dman, especially a cripple like Tanev. IMO, the same reason that Tanev is still a Canuck is because there were no offers like the ones being suggested in here, on behalf of the Leafs. 

 

The Leafs are just getting started out of the gate after a successful rebuild strategy. They’re not about to trade the Marlies for a Dman, the likes of which will be available through UFAs, as they continue to refine their rebuild through the draft. Why wouldn’t college kids and players overseas want to play for a team on the cusp of contention? 

 

I give this team another year for their youth to mature before Shanny decides its time to make substantial trades that will be required to make that club a true contender. The thought of Tanev being that guy is laughable, but coming from this rival fanbase, I’d expect no less. In the end, it’s cheap entertainment for me, at least. 

 

The Marlies vs Comets are the prospect pools going head-to-head, minus a few key parts. However, this goes for both sides. (The Leafs kids are in the NHL though, so let’s not be over stating the Canucks’ absentee list)

 

 

Edited April 26, 2018 by 189lb enforcers?

[oldnews]

11 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Why bother yakkin' bout the Fleas?

 

what's left to discuss now that you've declared the rewhat done?