-AJ- Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Seeing as it's just over the 1/4 mark of the season (and we just had a big win), I figured it'd be as good a time as any to do a detailed projection of the stats of our Canucks for this season. This is really just a mathematical projection of the goals, assists, points, and PIM of the Canucks throughout the season as well as goaltending stats and team stats. Some stats aren't listed because they're already inherently projections (e.g., save %, GAA). Note that I wanted to use an unbiased method of projecting games played, so I did a relatively simple mathematical formula that I've also posted further down below to project the games played. It's not perfect (please no, not 33 games for Megna), but it's the most balanced unbiased method I've found so far. Also note that I've left the projections with a decimal place to mitigate confusion with rounding errors. And now, for the skaters: Firstly, their current statistics: Next, their projected statistics: Interesting things I noted: - Boeser is having a heck of a year - Horvat on pace to set new highs, Baertschi matching his production - Vanek performing much better than I expected - Sedins are declining quite a bit, but still close to 2nd line level production, maybe closer to 3rd - #MVP on pace for about 28 goals - Eriksson on pace for a monster comeback year - Tanev on pace for a career year offensively (don't expect 9 goals though) - Sutter and Granlund on trend for disappointing years offensively - Del Zotto leading the team with 27 points, but after Tanev, it falls off a lot on defensemen If you're interested, here's how I projected the games played for the skaters: *The average is between the possible games and the projected games Next, on to goaltenders: Nilsson has a pretty nutty win % right now, so that looks pretty crazy when extrapolated. I added the points and PIM categories for fun because I could. I'd like to see Marky rack up some assists this year with all the puck handling he does. Finally, some team projections: Overall, much better than most predicted, even Canuck fans (I predicted 79 points on the year). Share any thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Well, realistically speaking, I think the bottom will fall out at some point, but I'm enjoying the ride right now. And of course the thing I'm happiest about is just how incredibly good Boeser is. I figured a 20-20 season would be a solid start, but it looks like he's absolutely going to crush that projection. I expect Boeser to finish with about 60 points and 25-30 goals.Hoping Horvat can stay at around his pace so far, and I expect Bear Cheese to finish the season at around 50 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
combover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I can’t pick just one, it’s just nice to have a team that looks like there having fun and playing a enterianing style of hockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adarsh Sant Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Boeser ❤❤ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kloubek Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I'd vote for every point you made in the poll. There have certainly been some surprises. Boeser is just amazing, and he's so young he's amazingly likely to get even better over the next couple of years. I don't think Tanev's scoring will keep up, and in general I don't think the pace of the team overall will necessarily continue quite at this level. However, I do think there is obvious room for Granlund and Sutter to improve so you never know, and I also think Stetcher and Hutton are going to show us more production than they have so far. I WAS hoping Eriksson was going to get better and he clearly has I just didn't see any good reason why he should have declined so quickly and if he can keep this up that's great news because we are stuck with him. I laugh when I see that Guddy is projected to zero points. Though it is entirely possible. Though I still believe he is the better of our two goalies, I can't see Nilsson keeping quite the same pace as he has so far. Finally, I actually did expect Vanek to be a strong contributor - though maybe not quite to this degree. I also expected the Sedins to be a bit better than they have been - even despite what I assumed would be lesser ice time. But really, maybe expectation isn't the right word given the decline was clearly already happening. Maybe more of a hope for them to close out their careers with a solid season. Imagine where we would be if they were contributing at even the pace of a couple of years ago... 60 points or so. We'd be damn near the top of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal.view Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 46 minutes ago, -AJ- said: Seeing as it's just over the 1/4 mark of the season (and we just had a big win), I figured it'd be as good a time as any to do a detailed projection of the stats of our Canucks for this season. This is really just a mathematical projection of the goals, assists, points, and PIM of the Canucks throughout the season as well as goaltending stats and team stats. Some stats aren't listed because they're already inherently projections (e.g., save %, GAA). Note that I wanted to use an unbiased method of projecting games played, so I did a relatively simple mathematical formula that I've also posted further down below to project the games played. It's not perfect (please no, not 33 games for Megna), but it's the most balanced unbiased method I've found so far. Also note that I've left the projections with a decimal place to mitigate confusion with rounding errors. And now, for the skaters: Firstly, their current statistics: Next, their projected statistics: Interesting things I noted: - Boeser is having a heck of a year - Horvat on pace to set new highs, Baertschi matching his production - Vanek performing much better than I expected - Sedins are declining quite a bit, but still close to 2nd line level production, maybe closer to 3rd - #MVP on pace for about 28 goals - Eriksson on pace for a monster comeback year - Tanev on pace for a career year offensively (don't expect 9 goals though) - Sutter and Granlund on trend for disappointing years offensively - Del Zotto leading the team with 27 points, but after Tanev, it falls off a lot on defensemen If you're interested, here's how I projected the games played for the skaters: *The average is between the possible games and the projected games Next, on to goaltenders: Nilsson has a pretty nutty win % right now, so that looks pretty crazy when extrapolated. I added the points and PIM categories for fun because I could. I'd like to see Marky rack up some assists this year with all the puck handling he does. Finally, some team projections: Overall, much better than most predicted, even Canuck fans (I predicted 79 points on the year). Share any thoughts! awfully simplistic approach to point projections just let's basically multiply current totals by 4 completely unrealistic i especially like dorsett projection showing him getting 28 goals.... really ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, coastal.view said: awfully simplistic approach to point projections just let's basically multiply current totals by 4 completely unrealistic i especially like dorsett projection showing him getting 28 goals.... really ? Like I said, it's just a projection based on extrapolating the current statistics. It's not a "prediction", it's a projection. Take it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal.view Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, -AJ- said: Like I said, it's just a projection based on extrapolating the current statistics. It's not a "prediction", it's a projection. Take it or leave it. it's not even a projection though.. it seems a bit pointless.. anyone can multiply current totals by 4 did you count how many players you project to basically play the entire year ? the number is completely out of wack with recent team history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted November 22, 2017 Author Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, coastal.view said: it's not even a projection though.. it seems a bit pointless.. anyone can multiply current totals by 4 did you count how many players you project to basically play the entire year ? the number is completely out of wack with recent team history It's simpler in the multiplication sense because it happens to be nearly a quarter way through. I simply chose this time because it's a "milestone" time. Creating a projection at 29 games would seem somewhat arbitrary. You can read on how I projected the games played. I'm a numbers man, I didn't want to include any personal bias into what I "think" might be accurate so as to keep the analysis as unbiased and objective as possible. Sure I could guess that Megna might only finish with one game, but I have nothing to base that off but my own best guesses. The numbers I produced have hard math behind them, no opinions. Don't take it as "this is what AJ thinks the Canucks will end up with", take it as "this is how the current statistics project. Many of them will probably change (Megna 33 games, Dorsett 28 goals, Tanev 9 goals, etc.) but that's what it's at now." It's simple math yeah (though the games calculation is a bit more in-depth), but I figured some users would appreciate me organizing all of the information in a nice, easy-to-read format instead of having to calculate every number themselves. If you don't like it, that's fine, do the calculations yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalie13 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, 48MPHSlapShot said: Well, realistically speaking, I think the bottom will fall out at some point, but I'm enjoying the ride right now. I have a feeling that will happen somewhere around the trade deadline. Sure, this season has been more fun than last season, but I still don't expect them to contend for the Cup. What I do expect is for Benning to ship out as many tradeable assets as possible and continue the rebuild. Once that happens it will be hard for this young-ish team to continue on this pace, but it will certainly help set them up for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal.view Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, -AJ- said: It's simpler in the multiplication sense because it happens to be nearly a quarter way through. I simply chose this time because it's a "milestone" time. Creating a projection at 29 games would seem somewhat arbitrary. You can read on how I projected the games played. I'm a numbers man, I didn't want to include any personal bias into what I "think" might be accurate so as to keep the analysis as unbiased and objective as possible. Sure I could guess that Megna might only finish with one game, but I have nothing to base that off but my own best guesses. The numbers I produced have hard math behind them, no opinions. Don't take it as "this is what AJ thinks the Canucks will end up with", take it as "this is how the current statistics project. Many of them will probably change (Megna 33 games, Dorsett 28 goals, Tanev 9 goals, etc.) but that's what it's at now." It's simple math yeah (though the games calculation is a bit more in-depth), but I figured some users would appreciate me organizing all of the information in a nice, easy-to-read format instead of having to calculate every number themselves. If you don't like it, that's fine, do the calculations yourself. or let's just do a neat math exercise and multiply the current point totals of the canucks by 4 i fail to see the point other then the current numbers are 4x bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaku Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I'm pleasantly surprised with Brock's offensive production and with the Canucks 90 point pace. Both however are always welcomed with open arms. I truly hope Brock can keep up this sort of point pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lafayettecrossbar Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I'd have to agree that this is pointless. Could've done it 10 games ago and called it the 1/8th mark of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 The only thing that relevant to me this year is growth from the younger players. So, from the OP's list, Boeser and Baertschi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RetroCanuck Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I can't see the Canucks sustaining this type of play through out the year. They are going to get tired and sloppy. We have a bunch of vets that will get tired in Edler, Sedins, Vanek and a couple young guys that might not be able to keep pace all year in Virtanen, Boeser Pouliot. Overall though its been a great start to the year but we are still near the bottom of the league with other teams that should be able to overtake us just below us. Add in the fact that this is still a rebuild and we will trade at least Vanek and maybe a LD at the deadline and you have more reasons to see us regress. A great start but not sustainable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Vintage Canuck- Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Thanks for taking the effort of doing this. It's nice to see some of the player's projected numbers and hope they keep pace. Obviously, Boeser is the one that has most of us surprised, but it's nice to see others like Baertschi and Dorsett doing great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 hours ago, -AJ- said: Seeing as it's just over the 1/4 mark of the season (and we just had a big win), I figured it'd be as good a time as any to do a detailed projection of the stats of our Canucks for this season. This is really just a mathematical projection of the goals, assists, points, and PIM of the Canucks throughout the season as well as goaltending stats and team stats. Some stats aren't listed because they're already inherently projections (e.g., save %, GAA). Note that I wanted to use an unbiased method of projecting games played, so I did a relatively simple mathematical formula that I've also posted further down below to project the games played. It's not perfect (please no, not 33 games for Megna), but it's the most balanced unbiased method I've found so far. Also note that I've left the projections with a decimal place to mitigate confusion with rounding errors. And now, for the skaters: Firstly, their current statistics: Realistically the Canucks have all had relatively fast starts and as the season goes on, I expect the vets to get a bit better and the young guys to trail off a bit. I think Boeser will finish with around 25-30 goals and about 50-60 points. Horvat should hit about 60 points again and I expect him to get better as we get closer to the end of the season. Baertschi will be the same, around the 50-60 point mark. All 3 of them hopefully hit 20+ goals but on the whole, we should expect 60-70 goals from the trio realistically. The Sedins will probably manage 40 points each which is pretty good for 3rd line ice-times. I think Vanek, Eriksson and Gagner will average around 40 points too (Gagner about 35, Vanek about 45) and we can expect 10-15 goals from each of them, about 30 all up. Sutter has been a disappointment offensively but I think he'll get on a hot-streak later in the season, finishing with 30 points though and maybe only 10 goals. Granlund has been a bit disappointing offensively too but again, I'd be happy with 10-15 goals and 30 points from him. Virtanen and Burmistrov will probably finish with around 20 points and <10 goals, same as Dorsett who despite the fast start may take a serious injury set-back now. So on the whole: 20-30 goals each from our top line (on average) and 50-60 points. Far from tops in the league but not bad for a transitioning team. 2nd and 3rd lines are about the same, 40 points per Sedin (and much less for their random linemate) and 40 points for Vanek, Eriksson and Gagner on average. 100pts from the Sedin 2nd/3rd line and about 120pts for the UFA line. Compared to the rest of the second lines in the league that's quite pathetic but that's a very decent 3rd line. 4th line averaging about 5-10 goals and 15-20 points is about average for most 4th lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 If there's one projection we can all agree on in the OP, it's Brendan Gaunce playing another 37 games without scoring a goal. I would send him to Utica for one final season, give him all the minutes (as Rodin should have had) and let someone like Boucher come in on 4LW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 nice work @-AJ- . I picked Baer, full disclosure I expected another slow start and maybe even 3rd line duties for him But he's even doing little things really well this year, he seems to have found his game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 13 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said: Well, realistically speaking, I think the bottom will fall out at some point, but I'm enjoying the ride right now. And of course the thing I'm happiest about is just how incredibly good Boeser is. I figured a 20-20 season would be a solid start, but it looks like he's absolutely going to crush that projection. I expect Boeser to finish with about 60 points and 25-30 goals.Hoping Horvat can stay at around his pace so far, and I expect Bear Cheese to finish the season at around 50 points. curious as to why you think the bottom will fall out? They've played a very consistent style so far and have gotten great goal tending, I don't see that changing. If they can stay healthy, they should be in the playoff hunt right until the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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