Re-Signing RFAs and UFAs

[JamesB]

Time to start thinking about RFAs. The five RFAs who are coming up (in alphabetical order) are Baertschi, Granlund, Pouliot, Stecher, and Virtanen. Benning has said he plans to qualify and sign all of them. And the Canucks have quite a bit of cap room. The question is how much will it cost. Here are this year's cap hits (in millions):

 

Baertschi: 1.85

Granlund: 0.90

Pouliot: 0.80

Stecher: 0.92

Virtanen: 0.89

 

Total: 5.36

 

None of these guys are in a great bargaining position and they all still have a lot to prove. Here is my read, but I admit there is a lot of uncertainty.

 

Baertschi; For the past two years he has performed at a legitimate 2nd line level (barely) in terms of scoring, and he has speed. And he actually played on the Canuck first line this year (which indicates the lack of front-line players on the team). He has become defensively responsible but still won't be playing shutdown or PK any time soon. He does not contribute to the physical game. And he has had injury problems that make his situation far from solid. Still, in terms of performance, he is the best guy in the group and I think he deserves a small raise. I see his cap hit going to probably about 2.5 million.

 

Granlund: Had a disappointing season (12 pts in 53 games, not even a legitimate 4th line level or shutdown level). Then he had a season-ending injury. His stock has fallen a lot. Still, based on the previous season and on hoped-for potential, he deserves a raise. I see him going to 1.5 million 

 

Pouliot: He played regularly but, in my view, did not live up to expectations. On a good team he probably would have been 7th man. He has potential but is inconsistent, He did get 22 points, but his plus/minus of -22 despite relatively easy minutes is scary. And he does not contribute to the physical game. I could see Juolevi taking his spot next year. (or Dahlin ). Still, he was a regular this year and, with normal progression, probably goes to 1.5 million.

 

Stecher: He had no history with Green and had to prove himself all over again this year. But his minutes went up over the season and, by the end, he was doing a good job playing on the first pairing with Edler. He deserves a significant raise. I could see him going to 2.5 million, maybe more.

 

Virtanen: CDC has been doing cartwheels over Virtanen because he made quite a lot of progress this year, as if that justifies his original selection at #6 overall. But he still needs to continue his progression. He had 20 points (including 10 goals) in 75 games this year. That is a good 4th line level and kind of marginal 3rd line level (or at least close). His defence improved a lot and, of course, he contributes to the speed game and the physical game. Also he was a lot better at the end of the season than at the beginning and was a consistent high energy presence over the last two months of the season. And his attitude seems to have improved a lot. That all helps him. I see him going to 2 million, maybe a bit more.

 

Benning, quite reasonably, does not like 1 year deals for RFAs but, these guys all still have a lot of questions marks. So I would expect 2 year deals for all ot them, although I could see 3-year deals for Virtanen and Stecher.

 

I project Stecher (or maybe Baertschi) to be the highest paid and I project a total of maybe a little over 10 million.

 

As for UFAs, I think the Canucks will re-sign Archie (they should) and that is all.

 

 

 

 

 

[Rush17]

Dowd probably gets a 2 way contract or PTO.  He will be a big factor for competition in camp for C.  Wouldn't be at all surprised if he signs a 1 or 2 way deal then is picked up off waivers.

[Rush17]

Posted this in the other topic too.

 

 

 

Good chance we see Baer, Granlund and possibly Pouliot in arbitration.  Injuries due to Baer and Granny reduces sample size and I'm sure they wanna be paid.  Pouliot.  Probably feels he can contribute more next season and may seek a tad more then he's worth. 

 

Hutton was way up at 2.8 mill. Pouliot probably wants around 2-2.5 mill.  Arbitration might get him closer to 2.  Jake and Stecher being local guys and a big part of the future.

 

I suspect take what is given to them and try to get more down the line when we are a better team. Both feeling their contributions iwll be more noticed down the road.

 

Avoiding arbitration makes the team happy so long term players wanna save that card for later if they wish to use it.

[theo5789]

My prediction if they all re-sign:

Baertschi: 3.5

Granlund: 1.75

Pouliot: 1.25

Stetcher: 2.25

Virtanen: 2.5 on a bridge, 3.25 for slightly longer term

 

 

[Rush17]

2 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

My prediction if they all re-sign:

Baertschi: 3.5

Granlund: 1.75

Pouliot: 1.25

Stetcher: 2.25

Virtanen: 2.5 on a bridge, 3.25 for slightly longer term

 

 

I wish Jake was further along so we could ink him to term like a 6 year deal.  Maybe a 2-3 year bridge and then decide.  Hopefully he takes a pay cut to be here at home when he gets amazing. 

 

The orgs put a lot of work into him. Hope he realizes how fortunate he has been. I think he has. He's a pretty bright and appreciative kid.

[Nucker 67]

My guess:

 

Baertschi - $3,000,000

Granlund - $2,000,000

Stecher - $2,000,000

Virtanen - $1,750,000

Pouliot - $1,750,000

 

[Oregon.Duck]

I'd want the following (show me contracts and all could have huge paydays in 2-3 years if they can prove it):

• Baer: $3M x 2
• Stetch: $3M x 3
• Granny: $1.75M x 2
• Virtanen: $1.75M x 2
• Pouliot: $1.5M x 2

[aliboy]

42 minutes ago, Rush17 said:

Dowd probably gets a 2 way contract or PTO.  He will be a big factor for competition in camp for C.  Wouldn't be at all surprised if he signs a 1 or 2 way deal then is picked up off waivers.

The way he's playing right now I'd much rather have Cassels next year, in Dowds' spot. He's the forgotten man who needs to be unforgotten.

[189lb enforcers?]

12 mil on the button. 

 

[Pears]

I’ll go ahead and wager

 

Baertschi: $2.75M

Stecher: $2.5M

Virtanen: $950K

Pouliot: $950K

Granlund: $1M

[189lb enforcers?]

37 minutes ago, Rush17 said:

I wish Jake was further along so we could ink him to term like a 6 year deal.  Maybe a 2-3 year bridge and then decide.  Hopefully he takes a pay cut to be here at home when he gets amazing. 

 

The orgs put a lot of work into him. Hope he realizes how fortunate he has been. I think he has. He's a pretty bright and appreciative kid.

I agree with your JV and TS dollars and think Troy gets almost 3.

Baer will be a hair under 4.

Granny will be just over 2

DP will get about 1.5

 

/12 mil 

[cbdoubleu]

Virtanen - Compares to Bennett - 2 x 1.95-2.25

Baertschi - Compares to Brock Nelson - 3 x 2.5-2.75

Granlund - Compares to Brett Ritchie - 2 x 1.75

Stecher - Compares to Esa Lindell - 2 x 2.2

Pouliot - Compares to Nikita Zadorov - 2 x 2.15

 

[Bure_Pavel]

Baer 3.5 x 2 years

granlund 2.2 x 2 years

Stecher 3 x 3 years

Pouliot 2 x 2 years

Virtanen 2 x 2

 

Total 12.7 Million

[IBatch]

The way I see if they all deserve modest raises, say 150% of their current earnings, but they will all likely close to double it x 2 years.  

 

With the exception of maybe Jake and maybe Stetcher, none of them really need to be part of the next core (and that's a maybe), but any of them could earn that over the next two or three years depending on the bridge.  JV was the only one who showed marked improvement as the season went on, closing out in a tear.  Hopefully that was signs of things to come, and he will become what we all hoped.  Of the remaining guys my money is on Pouilet to figure things out and become a player of some value.

[Rush17]

Baer 3.5 x 1 year

Granlund 1.75 x 1 year

Stecher 2.5 x 2 years

Pouliot 1.75 x 1 year

Virtanen 2.5 x 2 years

 

Would be my preference. Baer probably gets a quarter mill more. Stech easily could get half a million to a million more.

 

I would like to see Virtanen do a 3 year deal in case your worried about where he's at after 2. But.. if he excels by 2 and has 1 year left it makes it more difficult to get him cheap. Rather do a 2 year then 1 year on virtanen if required.

 

Stech and Baer are super hard for me to predict.  I would like to ink Stecher to a longer term 4-5 year deal at a low rate. But I don't know his ceiling so the valuation is tricky. What is a low rate for him in year 3-5 in a long term deal?

 

[JamesB]

1 hour ago, cbdoubleu said:

Virtanen - Compares to Bennett - 2 x 1.95-2.25

Baertschi - Compares to Brock Nelson - 3 x 2.5-2.75

Granlund - Compares to Brett Ritchie - 2 x 1.75

Stecher - Compares to Esa Lindell - 2 x 2.2

Pouliot - Compares to Nikita Zadorov - 2 x 2.15

 

Thanks for the comparators. I wanted to do something similar in the OP but I could not take the time (i.e. I was too lazy ). These are plausible numbers although obviously a bit different from my predictions. (Actually the are all pretty close except that Pouliot is slightly on the high side from my point of view.)

[zduck14]

I'm just curious why the majority of people here think Stecher will get so much more on his deal than Pouliot. Both players just turned 24 and have almost identical career stats (35 points and 36 points) in almost the exact same number of games. On top of that, Stecher seemed to take a step backward this year in his development while Pouliot doubled Stecher's offensive output (22 points to just 11 for Stecher) and was tied for 2nd among the teams defensemen in just 71 games.  

 

I understand that Pouliot's defensive game needs work but Stecher isn't exactly a defensive minded player himself and isn't that much better than Pouliot in their own end.

 

That said, my predictions are Beartschi - 3.5, Granlund - 1.75, Virtanen - 1.8, Pouliot - 1.9, Stecher - 1.9

[ChuckNORRIS4Cup]

For Baertschi I don't see him making more that's for sure $1.85M, he will make more if can stay healthy for at least 1 year but until that I don't expect him getting a raise no way, and tbh watching the exit interviews I'd be even more cautious with him because he really didn't sound positive on his future who knows if he will ever be the same, will have to wait and see.

 

Granlund this is a tough one he kind of took a decline this year but the injury didn't help either, he may get a little more then his 900K this year, but I could see a 2 way type contact at around $1-$1.2M max or he isn't resigned and is replaced from a free agent signing.

 

Pouliot he may get a little raise was the teams 2nd highest scoring Defenseman, but was also the teams highest -minus player as I wasn't a big fan of his actual defense, if Canucks don't trade or sign other D he will probably go to around $1M.

 

Stecher is one of the hardest working D on this team imo, if there was 1 guy deserving of a raise it is this kid, he obviously has things to work on in his game but the effort this guy gives you game in and game out he definitely deserves the raise, I'd say around $1.2-1.5M.

 

As for lengths of contracts I really don't know for these guys, Baer as mentioned due to this injury long term is way to risky either 1 or 2 year max. Granlund the same 1 or 2 year max, Pouliot 1 year max if he is still here, Stecher is one I could see maybe a 2-3 year contract, now that leaves me with Virtanen.

 

Virtanen I'd honestly like to lock this guy up long term at a decent contract and reason why over everyone else, he can hold his ground in the NHL unlike some others who seem to be injury prone I don't see that in Virtanen as why I would take the longer risk with him under contract. I have said before I would sign him at $10M × 5 years avg. 2M/year and if they could have a 2way option in there just in case but I doubt it will be needed. It maybe a little high for the first year but the years after is when I think it will really pay off and will be a steal having him for only $2M, he's getting better and better all the time and the last bit of the season was exciting to watch him the confidence in his game is going up and it will only continue to go up. 

 

 

[JM_]

I think Pouliot is being a little undersold. He's shown signs of having some nifty mobility and scoring, yes the +/- isn't great but for a guy who got yo-yo'd in Pittsburgh and basically given away he had some confidence issues to overcome I'm sure. Take away one -5 night and one -3 night and the +/- isn't that bad for this team. He can also play either side effectively. Doesn't take a lot of dumb penalties. 

 

This was basically his first full year in the NHL, if he can bring some confidence into next season I can see him earning a regular spot. 

 

 

 

 

[RetroCanuck]

WOW people are really low balling Stetcher! Guy has been thrust into the top of our D group for the past two years and has performed amazingly well considering. In my mind if we can lock him up at $4M for 6 years he will be a steal for us in the future.