Assessing the Canuck D: Some Interesting Numbers

[Industrious1]

1 hour ago, 6string said:

Great post and even greater yet there hasn't been a fantasy post on Tryamkin's return, which they seem to know about and the organization doesn't

 

We're drafting a Dman either first overall or otherwise this year.

 

5 hours ago, khay said:

Nice work! This is my assessment:

 

1. Edler is #2/#3 on a good team.

2. Tanev is the modern day version of defensive specialist. Drives the play towards the right direction and prevents shots and scoring chances with smart plays and smartly reading the plays.

3. Stecher's is a new type of defenceman. He aggressively defends well before the puck enters the defensive zone. Once the puck gets in, he isn't as effective but that can improve as he learns to read the plays better. 

4. MDZ is a stop gap. He is there so that we don't ice complete embarrassment of a team.

tied

T5. Biega is reliable and gets the job done when needed but not sure if he will be able to sustain energy over 82 game season. Just like energy forwards like Dorsett, they play with high intensity and can have hot streaks but not relied upon for long periods of time for the most important tasks. Although Dorsett was doing a fine job this season, if he wasn't forced to retire, I wonder whether he would have been able to maintain the level of play that he showed in the first 15 games.

T5. Gudbranson is the old day's version of defensive specialist. If you can't handle the puck and skate at the same time, you aren't going to get much done in this league. These guys are disappearing in the new NHL. Gud can skate well but not if it's with the puck. Therefore, he is good at puck retrieval but because he can't skate his way out of trouble, he needs to defer the job to his partner. He can make good passes if he recognizes good passing option, but he doesn't see plays developing very well. Therefore, he makes simple plays that can easily be read off by the opposing forecheckers. Part of the reason why Gud was good with Edler was because Edler did a good job of providing an easy passing option to Gud. Therefore, Gud recognized it easily and made a good pass, which led to Edler moving the puck out. 

7. Pouliot is not an NHL level "defence"man as you said.  -22 playing easy minutes is all we need to know. Troy Stecher was -7 playing harder minutes. Defence is all about intensity and being smart positionally, which means reading the play and Pouliot has neither.

8. Hutton has a lot of work to do. He lost a step compared to his rookie year. That's really bad. You should be getting faster, not slower in this league. I think he had a terrible year and he needs to come to camp ready or else, he will be out of the league pretty soon.

 

I think Edler and Tanev are the only top 4 caliber defencemen on this team. Stecher has a chance to join these two if he improves his defensive zone plays. The rest are #5/#6 pairings with Pouliot being an "offence"man and Hutton very close to being out of the league. I wouldn't want this year's Hutton even as a #7 guy. Pouliot has room to improve but his intensity is the main problem. Unless he improves his intensity level, he will also be out of the league very soon.

 

There is nothing we can do to improve the defence for next season other than to draft well and being patient for prospects.

 

I think in two seasons we will be able to add Juolevi, hopefully Tryamkin, and Sautner if he continues to develop well.

 

Juolevi will take the spot behind Edler.

Tryamkin will replace Gudbranson.

Sautner will replace MDZ.

 

Edler-Tryamkin

Juolevi-Tanev

Sautner-Stecher

 

If we can sign a UFA defender like Doughty, Karlsson, OEL or draft Dahlin, it would allow us to trade Tanev to address needs up front.

 

Any fix must take place in 2019 off season rather than 2018 off season. For example, I don't think signing John Carlson will be enough.

 

@6string A quick re-read will prove you were close but not quite there.

Tryamkin has indeed been added to our roster in this posters scenario.

[JamesB]

9 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Nice work @JamesB

 

I agree on most points.

 

However, I feel like as one of the Hutton defenders, and one who sometimes uses stats, I should make some kind of comment. 

 

I agree Hutton had a bad year. Probably the worst of his career. And to make his season look like a rousing success, you'd need to really cherry pick the numbers. But I don't think that's ever been the intention of people who've called attention to the stats....

Great post Sid. In addition to tracking the prospects you are also putting in a lot of time on the big team. As I have said before, the Canucks really should put you on the payroll.

 

Good points about Hutton. I would summarize your analysis as follows:

 

1. Hutton's defence is not bad. And I like your discussion of zone exits and zone entrances a lot. That makes me feel better about Hutton. I have often thought that clean zone exits and preventing zone entries are key stats but I did not look into them for my OP as only small amounts of data are available (and I am too lazy to track it down).

 

2. What really hurts Hutton is his (lack of) offensive support.

 

I would add the following points.

 

3. Given his lack of offence and his decent size, you would expect or at least hope that he would contribute more to the the physical game. But he really did not do much in that area. It is as if he shies away from contact -- or at least is not as enthusiastic about it as we would like, unlike Biega and MDZ, who really look for hitting opportunities.

 

4. As I mentioned, it is hard to measure quality of competition, but he obviously has easier minutes than Edler and Tanev and, using the metric I used, also easier than Guddy and MDZ, (and about the same as Stecher). That helps his numbers.

 

5.I should have mentioned time on ice per game in my OP. It is harder to put up good numbers in terms of rates if you play a lot of minutes (i.e. you get tired). And of course time on ice indicates how valuable the coach thinks you are. For the Canucks last year the time on ice (all situations) were Edler at 24:16, MDZ at 20:48, Tanev at 19:46, Stecher at 18:48, Guddy at 18:25, Hutton at 18:25, Pouliot at 17:51, and Biega at 15:10. So lower than average time on ice per game probably helped Hutton a bit in terms of rates but it is interesting that the coach had him almost exactly the same as Guddy. Biega's rates were obviously helped by lower TOI. And, once again, Edler's TOI is impressive, especially as a lot of it was against the other team's first line. 

 

 

 

[6string]

1 hour ago, Industrious1 said:

 

@6string A quick re-read will prove you were close but not quite there.

Tryamkin has indeed been added to our roster in this posters scenario.

D'oh!

Early morning reads or its been drilled into my head that Tryamkin is on his way lol.

[komodo0921]

18 hours ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

I know this is flame worthy, but I have consistently said that Biega is the 2nd best defenseman on the team.  I know that he can't play 82 games at that level as no one has that kind of energy, but for 40 or so games the guy is awesome.  I would agree with the vast majority of this analysis in every aspect.

Nothin but love for "The Bulldog" here.

Biega has to be one of the most underestimated defenders in the league.

 

[IBatch]

Here's some interesting numbers, the Predators scored 55 goals and 206 points from their defense this season.  That's an average of nine goals from their top six and over thirty points EACH.   Kind of puts things into perspective, no wonder Green expects more production from our defense.

[Pete M]

The way Pat Quinn had the team playing when the forwards overlapped with the "D" and the "D" overlapped with the forwards (on the back check, then on the rush, respectively) was a 5 man unit going up and down the ice. 

This past year, our "D" did not have much help from the forward group when our forwards were slow on the back check which contributed to the fire drill in the D zone. Plus the first pass out of our own end was brutal which resulted in a lot of chasing.

 

I watch a lot of games and pay close attention to the first pass, when it is made and when it is not and when it is just a dump out...the obvious observation on this aspect of the game is the following:

- when the first pass is made, the forwards enter the Ozone and there is direct pressure towards the other teams net;

- when the first pass is not made, the puck is turned over and the play comes back into our end with direct pressure on our net;

- when the puck is dumped out, the puck is turned over and the play comes back into our end with direct pressure on our net.

 

Morale of the story, if the first pass is made more often, then there will be more direct pressure on the other teams net.

Offense usually starts in the D zone

[mll]

20 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Here's some interesting numbers, the Predators scored 55 goals and 206 points from their defense this season.  That's an average of nine goals from their top six and over thirty points EACH.   Kind of puts things into perspective, no wonder Green expects more production from our defense.

 

And that was with Ellis only playing half a season - their production comes predominantly from their top-4.  Babcock was asked what is it about the Predators' system that allows them to get production from their blue line.  He answered 'it's not system - it's called being better'.  For him every team pretty much plays the same system.  Green himself says it's a copycat league and that there are only some minor tweaks.

Vancouver had 122pts from the blue line - only Buffalo got less production from their Ds.

 

The median is 162pts.  Somehow teams under that mark missed the playoffs and teams above that mark made the playoffs - save for NJD who was under and NYI who was above.  

 

The Canucks had only about 20pts less from their Fs than teams like Nashville and Minnesota (200pts from their Ds), and even had more offence from their Fs than a few playoff teams.  What would the production of the Fs be with more offensive help from the Ds.

 

It's not like Green runs a defensive system - the Ds are encouraged to join the attack and still there's still so little production from them.  Not sure they can simply count on the improvement of their current players.  

 

[Hairy Kneel]

Our D sucked when it came to scoring. That was sooo bad, brutally bad.

Tanev has never had a shot and everyone followed suit somehow.

[oldnews]

On 4/21/2018 at 8:35 PM, Adarsh Sant said:

Can't wait for @oldnews and @Hutton Wink when they read what the OP said about Mr. Gudbranson

chirp chirp.  surprise, look who's chirping, looking to incite - as usual.

 

Not much there with all due respect - the odd one liner and not a single # ironically.

But I learned a lot.

3rd strongest qualcomp.

2nd lowest zone starts. 

'disappointing'... offense, and allegedly, somehow, unqualified underlying numbers.

 

OP: "So I looked at points per 60 minutes played at even strength."

Funny what was left out, considering these are 'defensemen'.

 

On ice goals against per 60.

Pouliot 3.1

Edler 3.0

Del Zotto 2.9

Stecher 2.8

Tanev 2.5

Gudbranson 2.0

 

Meh, what do goals against matter? 

 

Th'analyticz1

 

Sorry to disappoint - nothing worth making popcorn over.

 

Carry on with the smarm, though.

[JM_]

7 hours ago, Alflives said:

We should have been getting extra picks over the last four drafts.  Now might be too late?

its never too late is it?

 

Its really hard to say what the trade value of any of them are (minus Tanev and Edler, he's not going anywhere nor should he), maybe some later round picks? 

 

Barring a draft day miracle I think they break camp with 8 D, with Juolevi coming in and Biega in Utica. I really can't see Benning signing Carlson or Green so we might was well see if the younger D we currently have can improve next year. If Hutty comes back off the weed (metaphorically) and more motivated that will help significantly. I also think there's more to Guddy than we've seen. I'd prefer to see Jim stick with this group and just go after one FA like Kane or maybe a veteran C and leave lots of cap space for TDL day. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

its never too late is it?

 

Its really hard to say what the trade value of any of them are (minus Tanev and Edler, he's not going anywhere nor should he), maybe some later round picks? 

 

Barring a draft day miracle I think they break camp with 8 D, with Juolevi coming in and Biega in Utica. I really can't see Benning signing Carlson or Green so we might was well see if the younger D we currently have can improve next year. If Hutty comes back off the weed (metaphorically) and more motivated that will help significantly. I also think there's more to Guddy than we've seen. I'd prefer to see Jim stick with this group and just go after one FA like Kane or many a veteran C and leave lots of cap space for TDL day. 

And have lots of cap space summer 2019 for EK:)

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

And have lots of cap space summer 2019 for EK:)

2019 UFAs: Doughty, Karlsson, OEL - might be worth it to wait it out. 

 

But if Hutton can get it together and live up to that puck moving promise we could fare OK with pairings of Edler-Guddy, Hutton-Tanev, Juolevi-Stecher until our 2018 D pick is ready. There's no "top pairing" there more like two 2nds and a 3rd but if our F group is as skilled as it looks to be it will take some pressure off these guys too. 

[6string]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

And have lots of cap space summer 2019 for EK:)

The trade to San Jose has changed the EK opinions in this forum ( not including you ) but when I was plugging him here two years ago I was getting trashed right into this season.

 

Things have simmered quite a bit now, the Kane deniers seem to have gone quiet.

[Time Lord]

2 hours ago, mll said:

The median is 162pts.  Somehow teams under that mark missed the playoffs and teams above that mark made the playoffs - save for NJD who was under and NYI who was above.

Well that's an important stat if I've ever seen one.

[189lb enforcers?]

8 hours ago, Alflives said:

We should have been getting extra picks over the last four drafts.  Now might be too late?

I agree. A lot has to go right for this emerging core to be something worth insulating. 

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, 6string said:

The trade to San Jose has changed the EK opinions in this forum ( not including you ) but when I was plugging him here two years ago I was getting trashed right into this season.

 

Things have simmered quite a bit now, the Kane deniers seem to have gone quiet.

Erik Karlsson.  That EK who is a UFA in 2019.  Although the other EK this summer would be nice too.

[JamesB]

3 hours ago, Pete M said:

The way Pat Quinn had the team playing when the forwards overlapped with the "D" and the "D" overlapped with the forwards (on the back check, then on the rush, respectively) was a 5 man unit going up and down the ice. 

This past year, our "D" did not have much help from the forward group when our forwards were slow on the back check which contributed to the fire drill in the D zone. Plus the first pass out of our own end was brutal which resulted in a lot of chasing.

 

I watch a lot of games and pay close attention to the first pass, when it is made and when it is not and when it is just a dump out...the obvious observation on this aspect of the game is the following:

- when the first pass is made, the forwards enter the Ozone and there is direct pressure towards the other teams net;

- when the first pass is not made, the puck is turned over and the play comes back into our end with direct pressure on our net;

- when the puck is dumped out, the puck is turned over and the play comes back into our end with direct pressure on our net.

 

Morale of the story, if the first pass is made more often, then there will be more direct pressure on the other teams net.

Offense usually starts in the D zone

 

3 hours ago, mll said:

 

And that was with Ellis only playing half a season - their production comes predominantly from their top-4.  Babcock was asked what is it about the Predators' system that allows them to get production from their blue line.  He answered 'it's not system - it's called being better'.  For him every team pretty much plays the same system.  Green himself says it's a copycat league and that there are only some minor tweaks.

Vancouver had 122pts from the blue line - only Buffalo got less production from their Ds.

 

The median is 162pts.  Somehow teams under that mark missed the playoffs and teams above that mark made the playoffs - save for NJD who was under and NYI who was above.  

 

The Canucks had only about 20pts less from their Fs than teams like Nashville and Minnesota (200pts from their Ds), and even had more offence from their Fs than a few playoff teams.  What would the production of the Fs be with more offensive help from the Ds.

 

It's not like Green runs a defensive system - the Ds are encouraged to join the attack and still there's still so little production from them.  Not sure they can simply count on the improvement of their current players.  

 

 

Both good points.

 

1. Making a clean first pass to create zone exits with possession is a very important part of the game.

 

2. The biggest problem with the Canuck D this year was a failure to generate offense. Guddy is a classic defensive D. So is Tanev, although his good first pass provides some support to the offence. Stecher and Hutton both seemed to focus on defence this year. Pouliot and MDZ look more offensive but their offense is still not particularly good and they make a lot of defensive mistakes. Edler is the only guy who generated significant offence. And he combined that with the tough job of playing shutdown on a poor team.

 

3. And I love the quote from Babcock. I think it captures a lot about the Canucks's results for the last three years. They have the worst record in the NHL over that period. Why? Not enough talent. It is probably that simple. 

 

Fortunately, there is some impressive talent in the system. Horvat and Boeser are blue chip guys on the team, and Pettersson looks great. Add in Demko, Gaudette, and Dahlen (and this year's first round pick) along with quite a few other guys with a decent chance to be good NHL players, and we can see that the the talent level will obviously rise over the next few years. Let's hope one or more of the D's in the pipeline makes a big jump next season.

 

 

 

[mikeyman109]

3 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Our D sucked when it came to scoring. That was sooo bad, brutally bad.

Tanev has never had a shot and everyone followed suit somehow.

I agree but our D also sucked at preventing scoring chances. we are a night mare in our own end often two D going to one man and leaving another open. We consistently turn the puck over at our blue line and Edler isn't absolved of this.

This D group is not strong, needs to be rebuilt and will take 4 years at least for this to happen.we need to draft 2 D men this year if we can make it happen. We also need help down the middle at Center.

[6string]

47 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Erik Karlsson.  That EK who is a UFA in 2019.  Although the other EK this summer would be nice too.

Off course, the topic is on defense my bad.

[aGENT]

On 2018-04-22 at 8:33 AM, riffraff said:

maybe this is holding JB to the fire a little but Juolevi better challenge for a spot or make the team next year or there is a real problem.

Why?

 

He's 19, not 24.