A Question of Value

[xereau]

50 minutes ago, luckylager said:

I can only assume you're refering to our (formerly) dismal prospect pool and awful drafting... because our D is still a massive liability. 

I expect the next several drafts to be majority D, and also see a revolving door on at least our bottom 2 D much like we saw for a couple years at forward.  It is much harder to get this going, as far more limited positions (6 vs 12) and roles in the position, but ya, expect something similar to happen.  We need to throw a whole bunch of stuff at the wall and see what sticks.

[HOFsedins]

8 hours ago, xereau said:

Teams are build on deeper picks, and most fans focus on only the first ones.

Lol? I would have to disagree with that. Yes you have to find gems later on in the draft but how can you expect to find them if you can't even hit with your first round pick..

[DrJockitch]

It is too early to think that any of these pics aren't still possibly wins.  The quality of the OJ pic really can't be judged for at least another 3 years unless you believe the addage that you don't really know what you have in a NHL defenceman until he hits 300 games then could be significantly longer. 

 

Jake has all the tools and hopefully is getting it all together.  These positions, PF and D really take more time to learn the position than the high skilled wingers who have a relatively simple task and can make up for their deficiencies a little earlier.  For obvious reasons a power forward and D man are hard to judge till they have their full on man strength (and yes I know Tkachuk is doing it but what a D-Bag).

 

That is how I feel, don't want to derail  this into another long discussion about how a 19 year old who improved significantly in a man's league is a bust because a different player in that draft played sheltered minutes in the league, there are enough of those.  It is early in the rebuild, have patience.

[IBatch]

This post deserves to go into the CDC Hall of Fame, or if we don't have one, then it should be made.  

 

Its hard not to expect a great player if you draft top five, but as the OP has accurately depicted the odds are even you get a 1-2 line forward or second pairing or better defenseman.   It would be interesting to further break that down into first line forward or number one defenseman, because at this point it looks like we have two first line forwards, a third line player with time to get to second line, and a second pairing defenseman.  

 

I've said before that each year GMs expect to get one roster player out of each draft, two is a good year and more than that exceptional.  Why?  Because that's what the math shows us.  If you add the first and second round odds you get one player, maybe not even a good one, but you get one, after that the odds are  better odds that you get nobody than a second player which is why two is a good year.

 

I'm not talking about a guy who plays 100 games, but the league average which is seven years.

[IBatch]

12 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

I think a lot of people are crying because they see other picks having success before Benning's picks.  You really can't judge the success or failure of a draft pick until their career is over.  Well, maybe for 10 years because most players have peaked by age 28.

 

People say that Virtanen was a bad pick because Nylander and Ehlers are having success earlier and they were picked after Virtanen.  What about Bennett (4) and Dal Colle (5)?  These 2 players have had less success.

 

Drafting is one thing, development is another and is at least equally important.  I am happy with the attention that Benning pays to developing players well.  He has the organization aligned well between the Canucks and the Comets in terms of systems and placing players in positions to succeed

Good post.  Reinhart should be added to the list, hasn't done much for such a high pick yet.  At this point I think that Ehlers and Virtanen are close to pulling even too, he's had some moments with WNP, especially game six against NSH, but hasn't exactly lit it up yet either.

Nylander obviously is doing well but look at his linemates (same with Ehlers), put JV on the top line now and first or second PP unit, I'd bet he could produce like at top six now.  Was one of our better players down the stretch, I like him on Petterssons line, his passing and vision could send JV away a lot, and JV could crush anyone giving him too much trouble.

[zombieksa]

Great post. Only thing I would note is that if you are basing on quality of the players Benning has drafted in the first round you should probably include Jared McCann. He may have been traded but he was still a Benning pick regardless.

[Wanless]

4 hours ago, HOFsedins said:

Lol? I would have to disagree with that. Yes you have to find gems later on in the draft but how can you expect to find them if you can't even hit with your first round pick..

Sometimes a little more depth and explaining to a post insisting of mockery could make your point more valid or at the least you more respectable

 

As to your post, I think you don’t understand the comment you lol’d at.

 

Edmonton is an example where they only had first rounders come in. But you need to find a Keith, a Hansen, a Benn, etc to fill out your team. Otherwise it would take forever to build a team.

 

We’re lucky that Benning is doing at least average on his first rounders, but his later round picks are what are really going to finish off the team.

[HOFsedins]

11 hours ago, Wanless said:

Sometimes a little more depth and explaining to a post insisting of mockery could make your point more valid or at the least you more respectable

 

As to your post, I think you don’t understand the comment you lol’d at.

 

Edmonton is an example where they only had first rounders come in. But you need to find a Keith, a Hansen, a Benn, etc to fill out your team. Otherwise it would take forever to build a team.

 

We’re lucky that Benning is doing at least average on his first rounders, but his later round picks are what are really going to finish off the team.

I apologize if it was taken as mockery. Not what I was trying to imply. I simply lol'd because I was just explaining how you expect to find a gem when you can't draft right with your first round pick. The OP was "great teams are built through later deep in the draft NOT in the early rounds". But you also have to understand that great teams have star players from the 1st round. A Keith, Benn, Zetterberg or Datsyuk does not come very often which is why you cannot mess up your first pick although I understand that does happen.

 

Edmonton could have made trades or find depth through free agency. They were not bad due to poor drafting. They got Hall, Nuge, Eberle etc. They were bad due to GMing. So not sure why you brought them up.

 

As for Benning, I never mentioned anything about him but since you brought him up, IMO I believe he has done a great job drafting. Some misses but nonetheless a good job.

[Rob_Zepp]

While the math is flawed, the concept is generally valid....however, all of this is moot as the comparison is more but how the rest of the league is doing over the same period of time.    That is a complicated comparison as it takes at least D+5 or 6 to have a general sense of any given pick and this current Canuck management regime hasn't even been in place that long.    

 

Word for the day....."patience".   Benning has been doing what any GM who had empty cupboards needed to do and he is starting to be done using the house's money as his draft picks and signings now have to start showing progressing this year and thereafter.   Signs are positive in that sense but more of these players are prospects versus established NHL players (which is expected given years as GM) and the next year or three will be essential in terms of demonstrated progress.

[Rindiculous]

On 5/12/2018 at 7:49 PM, Wanless said:

It’s such a hard conversation to have with those fans too

 

im glad we have virtanen over Ehlers and nylander, juolevi over tkatchuk for the reason that teams that are all goal scoring don’t succeed 

 

virtanen will I’ll always provide a solid back check a big body and a degree of toughness. These are the things that complete a team. These are the things that the leafs are missing and are really holding them back.

 

ehlers is a perimeter player that is in with the big boys. But perimeter players come in abundance, the big boys don’t 

 

Actually, on HERO charts, Virtanen is rated a 9 out of 10 for shots oppressed.  This basically means that he is one of the best shutdown forwards in the NHL.  In comparison, Mcdavid is rated a 6 in that category, Crosby is rated a 5, Toews is a 6, Kesler is a 5, and Bergeron is rated a 10 (as you would expect).  We have a future Selke winner on our hands.  For defensemen, we obviously also have one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league with Tanev who is rated a 9 as well. And yah, Kopitar, one of the best defensive forwards in the league, is rated an 8.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Rindiculous said:

Actually, on HERO charts, Virtanen is rated a 9 out of 10 for shots oppressed.  This basically means that he is one of the best shutdown forwards in the NHL.  In comparison, Mcdavid is rated a 6 in that category, Crosby is rated a 5, Toews is a 6, Kesler is a 5, and Bergeron is rated a 10 (as you would expect).  We have a future Selke winner on our hands.  For defensemen, we obviously also have one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league with Tanev who is rated a 9 as well.

And in watching these playoffs, bigger (providing the guy can skate and has skill) is better than tiny.  God, even the tiny tough players get pounded into pulp by the bigger guys.  

[Baggins]

5 hours ago, Rindiculous said:

Actually, on HERO charts, Virtanen is rated a 9 out of 10 for shots oppressed.  This basically means that he is one of the best shutdown forwards in the NHL.  In comparison, Mcdavid is rated a 6 in that category, Crosby is rated a 5, Toews is a 6, Kesler is a 5, and Bergeron is rated a 10 (as you would expect).  We have a future Selke winner on our hands.  For defensemen, we obviously also have one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league with Tanev who is rated a 9 as well. And yah, Kopitar, one of the best defensive forwards in the league, is rated an 8.

The best shutdown players tend to play against the opposing teams top offensive line. I suspect that wasn't the case with Virtanen as the bulk of the season he was on the 4th line. So my question is: does that rating take into consideration the quality of competition?

[TheGuardian_]

On ‎5‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 6:07 PM, NewAbaddon said:

 

Long read so I appreciate those who attempt to take it in. I hope the factual payoff is worth it.

 

Are Benning's first selections in each draft of his tenure (Virtanen, Boeser, Juolevi, Pettersson) an area of weakness or strength? Some Canucks fans routinely complain about Benning missing out on Nylander/Ehlers or Tkachuk, and others celebrate possible home-runs like Boeser and Pettersson. How do we look at all these picks together, as a complete picture?

 

Among these picks are two 5th overalls, a 6th overall, and a 23rd overall. What is the expected haul of this crop of picks?

 

Scott Cullen's recent exposition of the value of draft picks from 1990 to 2013 (https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131) is a useful tool for this, but far from perfect, as it contains certain quirks like further back draft picks being judged more valuable than earlier picks because of the somewhat random historical successes and failures of those slots.

 

So I made a very slight adaptation, and judged a pick's value by averaging its own value, and the value of the four picks around it, i.e. for pick number 14, I averaged its value with picks 12, 13, 15, and 16. Some might object to this, but it's at worst an imperfect modification of an imperfect model in the honest spirit of generating greater objectivity.

 

With this modification, the 5th overall pick has a historic value of producing a player with a 59.2% chance of becoming a top 6 F or top 4 D. The 6th overall pick has a 49.2% chance of becoming a top 6 F or top 4 D. The 23rd overall pick has a 21.7% chance of becoming a top 6 F or top 4 D. Some simple math follows: (2 x 59.2) + 49.2 + 21.7 = 189.3.

 

So these four picks have a historical value of producing at least one surefire top 6 F or top 4 D (100%), and then an 89.3 chance of producing another. That is their total historical value: one for sure top 6 F or top 4 D, another very likely, out of 4 total picks. But anything beyond that is not in the numbers at this point; it's just fan fever over the potential of draft picks and an overrating of the science aspect of drafting.

 

Thus far Benning has produced one 100% top 6 F or top 4 D in Boeser. All he needs to do is produce one more, and his first selections in the draft will be already surpassing their historical value. Out of Pettersson, Juolevi, and Virtanen, that will not be very difficult IMO, and if Juolevi becomes a top 4 D (a still likely outcome even among his largest detractors), and Pettersson a top 6 F (also likely at this point, barring catastrophe), then Benning will have greatly outperformed the historical value of his draft selections. A possible emergence of Virtanen down the road would just be icing on the cake to this statistical area of strength for Benning.

  

 

Interesting evaluation, problem is you are not using this idea to compare him to other teams. likely teams like Arizona would be 300%, Buffalo 400%, Edmonton 300% and so forth, so 189% is not all that good, he should be on par with those other teams.

When compared against himself how can he not look good.

 

On this team it is a surety that OJ is a top 4 dman, first because of his draft spot, second it would look really bad if he is a fail I have no doubt he will be gifted prime time on the PP and hardly ever see PK duty and this defence is not that good overall. One other thing, most pundits are really hedging their comments with regards to the level of his success, most now say he can be an NHL dman.

 

Bad luck at the lottery certainly doesn't help, do you know the numbers for top 4 picks?

[TheGuardian_]

13 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Word for the day....."patience".   Benning has been doing what any GM who had empty cupboards needed to do and he is starting to be done using the house's money as his draft picks and signings now have to start showing progressing this year and thereafter.   Signs are positive in that sense but more of these players are prospects versus established NHL players (which is expected given years as GM) and the next year or three will be essential in terms of demonstrated progress

Does anyone even remember draft picks/prospects from 3 or 4 years ago? Where are they playing?

 

BTW Pettersson broke his thumb and had surgery on it, word is he might (30%) decide to stay in Sweden next year which isn't a bad thing as long as the Canucks get him signed.

[ohmy]

18 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Does anyone even remember draft picks/prospects from 3 or 4 years ago? Where are they playing?

 

BTW Pettersson broke his thumb and had surgery on it, word is he might (30%) decide to stay in Sweden next year which isn't a bad thing as long as the Canucks get him signed.

His thumb will be fine and the closest place to Sweden he will be is if he finds himself in an IKEA.

[oldnews]

26 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Interesting evaluation, problem is you are not using this idea to compare him to other teams. likely teams like Arizona would be 300%, Buffalo 400%, Edmonton 300% and so forth, so 189% is not all that good, he should be on par with those other teams.

When compared against himself how can he not look good.

Uh - he should be on par with teams that were in positions to draft McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl, Sam Reinhart, Puljujaavi? 

 

Interesting, but the problem is that your logic is fudged, as are your numbers - and the % associated with 1,2,3, isn't the same as 5 or 23.

 

But ironically, Benning may very well be comparable to lottery pick teams.   The 189% you're referencing isn't Benning's draft rate - it's the overall average btw. 

[TheGuardian_]

41 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Uh - he should be on par with teams that were in positions to draft McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl, Sam Reinhart, Puljujaavi? 

 

Interesting, but the problem is that your logic is fudged, as are your numbers - and the % associated with 1,2,3, isn't the same as 5 or 23.

 

But ironically, Benning may very well be comparable to lottery pick teams.   The 189% you're referencing isn't Benning's draft rate - it's the overall average btw. 

Ya I understand where the 189% come from, but he should be compared to the success rate of those players drafted around his selections.

 

I selected those teams only because they were the closest to being as bad as the Canucks, that was an error, I should have just used comparable player selections but that sounds too much using hindsight to criticize, which in fairness any comparison is doing anyway.

 

Draft by draft

2014 - behind just about all teams

2015 - Home run, got lucky here if not at the lottery table, so many passed on him.

2016 - Big Miss, almost half the picks are making a mark.

2017 - Looking very, very promising, just get the kid signed and over here, or let him have another year to bulk up.

2018 - Looks like a can't miss year, a deep draft, even the round two pick could be better than usual.

 

IMO, Boeser, who almost doesn't count due to the number of teams that passed him up and that he was ranked right where the Nucks took him, is the only bonafided top six potential player, Virtanen may get there if this coaching/management group ever lets the reins go and starts teaching him while he is playing rather than disciplining him with benching and then not giving him a chance to correct the error in that game. I don't like that coaching/teaching seems to stop when the puck is dropped.

 

Hopefully now that teaching (hopefully) is the priority over winning these young guys can get some confidence and learn from their mistakes. I expect to see some lopsided games both ways. That happens when a 4 man offence is used, even with the best teams (D constantly rushing).

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Ya I understand where the 189% come from, but he should be compared to the success rate of those players drafted around his selections.

 

I selected those teams only because they were the closest to being as bad as the Canucks, that was an error, I should have just used comparable player selections but that sounds too much using hindsight to criticize, which in fairness any comparison is doing anyway.

 

Draft by draft

2014 - behind just about all teams

2015 - Home run, got lucky here if not at the lottery table, so many passed on him.

2016 - Big Miss, almost half the picks are making a mark.

2017 - Looking very, very promising, just get the kid signed and over here, or let him have another year to bulk up.

2018 - Looks like a can't miss year, a deep draft, even the round two pick could be better than usual.

 

IMO, Boeser, who almost doesn't count due to the number of teams that passed him up and that he was ranked right where the Nucks took him, is the only bonafided top six potential player, Virtanen may get there if this coaching/management group ever lets the reins go and starts teaching him while he is playing rather than disciplining him with benching and then not giving him a chance to correct the error in that game. I don't like that coaching/teaching seems to stop when the puck is dropped.

 

Hopefully now that teaching (hopefully) is the priority over winning these young guys can get some confidence and learn from their mistakes. I expect to see some lopsided games both ways. That happens when a 4 man offence is used with the best teams (D constantly rushing).

In the Jake draft, which players taken after him are ligit top six forwards, who actually contribute in the playoffs.  I know there are those who advocate for Nylander and Ehlers, but those two are perimeter guys, who do nothing when the hard games of the playoffs start.  

I firmly believe, over time, it will show that Jake was the best pick in that spot.  

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Does anyone even remember draft picks/prospects from 3 or 4 years ago? Where are they playing?

 

BTW Pettersson broke his thumb and had surgery on it, word is he might (30%) decide to stay in Sweden next year which isn't a bad thing as long as the Canucks get him signed.

I thought it was 32% likely?

[Rob_Zepp]

8 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Ya I understand where the 189% come from, but he should be compared to the success rate of those players drafted around his selections.

 

I selected those teams only because they were the closest to being as bad as the Canucks, that was an error, I should have just used comparable player selections but that sounds too much using hindsight to criticize, which in fairness any comparison is doing anyway.

 

Draft by draft

2014 - behind just about all teams

2015 - Home run, got lucky here if not at the lottery table, so many passed on him.

2016 - Big Miss, almost half the picks are making a mark.

2017 - Looking very, very promising, just get the kid signed and over here, or let him have another year to bulk up.

2018 - Looks like a can't miss year, a deep draft, even the round two pick could be better than usual.

 

IMO, Boeser, who almost doesn't count due to the number of teams that passed him up and that he was ranked right where the Nucks took him, is the only bonafided top six potential player, Virtanen may get there if this coaching/management group ever lets the reins go and starts teaching him while he is playing rather than disciplining him with benching and then not giving him a chance to correct the error in that game. I don't like that coaching/teaching seems to stop when the puck is dropped.

 

Hopefully now that teaching (hopefully) is the priority over winning these young guys can get some confidence and learn from their mistakes. I expect to see some lopsided games both ways. That happens when a 4 man offence is used, even with the best teams (D constantly rushing).

lol at your 2016 characterization!    Patience.....