Canuck Young Forwards: Assessing 2017-18

[JamesB]

The last week has been about the slowest week for Canuck news that I can remember. The biggest topics on CDC have been about the news that an NHL prospect, who almost certainly isn't Juolevi, had a video game addiction, and the non-news that Pettersson has not yet signed with the Canucks (which he will do sooner or later).

 

So I decided to take a statistical look at the young Canuck forwards using the data at Corsica. Of course, the "problem" with the data is that there are so many numbers that you can always find some number where a player looks good and another number where he looks bad. And all the numbers are strongly affected by quality of competition, which is very hard to adjust for. So interpreting the numbers, just like the "eye test", requires a lot of subjective judgement.

 

Here is my take.

 

First, by "young" I mean 25 or under as of now. And I look only at guys currently with the team (i.e. Burmi is out) and who played a reasonable amount (Gaudette is out).

 

That leaves 10 guys: Baertschi, Boeser, Boucher, Gaunce, Goldobin, Granlund, Horvat, Leipsic, Motte, and Virtanen.

 

Scoring: Forwards are easier to assess than D's, because scoring is a more important for forwards than for D's and we have good scoring metrics.  Of course we do need to adjust for time on ice and we need to separate 5 on 5 from PP. Here is a diagram showing points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. For Leipsic and Motte, their full year numbers are used (not just their Canuck numbers).

 

 

No big surprise here. Boeser had the best 5-on-5 scoring rate at 2.19. Horvat was next at 1.89. Granlund was low man at 0.48. If there is a surprise it is that Goldy (1.70) was pretty much tied with Baertschi (1.71) and Leipsic (1.59) was surprisingly close. Virtanen was next at 1.29.

 

To put things in perspective, the league leaders were McDavid (3.2), MacKinnon (3.0) and Matthews (2.93). The 80th forward in the NHL is at 2.0, so I would say that anyone at 2.0 or above is scoring at a good first line level. The magic second line number is about 1.7 and the magic third line number is about 1.3

 

Therefore, only Boeser was scoring at a good first line level. Horvat was at a marginal first line level -- close to 2.0. Baertschi and Goldy were just in the solid second line range, and Jake was just about at the good 3rd line level.

 

Boucher, Motte, Gaunce, and Granlund had relatively poor numbers EVEN FOR 4th liners. That might be offset by good defensive play or other contributions (physical play), but Motte Gaunce and Granlund would have to be very, very good on those dimensions to justify playing on a decent NHL team.

 

What about the PP? Only 5 guys have more than 30 PP minutes. I left the ordering of names the same as above. Here are the results:

 

 

Not a lot of difference, except that Boeser's lead really grows. He was dynamite on the PP, and in the upper echelon of the NHL overall. It is interesting that Granlund was ok on the PP -- still not good -- but ok, much better than his 5-on-5 scoring.

 

Here are some other interesting numbers.

 

Penalties:

We do not pay a lot of attention to penalties taken and drawn. Virtanen took the most penalties (15) but also drew the most (12) so was -3 overall. Horvat was great on this dimension. He only took 2 penalties but drew 10, making him +8. All by itself that is probably worth a couple of goals.

 

Shot Metrics and Plus-Minus:

I am not a big fan of shot metrics but here are some points. Only one of these ten young forward had a positive Corsi +/-. That was Reid Boucher. He also had the easiest quality of competition and a high proportion of offensive zone starts. That indicates the problem with Corsi. It is strongly affected by quality of competition, and fairly strongly affected by zone starts. And of course low probability perimeter shot attempts count just as much as high danger chances. An interesting variant is to look at expected 5-on-5 goals for and against based on the position where the shot is taken from. On this metric the best of the young forwards was Leipsic. But, once again, he benefited from somewhat protected minutes, although it is still a good sign. If we drop out Liepsic and Boucher, the leader was Horvat, and by a significant margin. Properly interpreted, this number says that Horvat is generating high quality chances at an impressive rate -- probably the best on the team all things considered. Boeser is better at burying chances (or course), but Horvat generates a lot.

 

And of course these numbers can be compared with regular plus-minus numbers. Guys who play on the PP get minuses when short-handing goals score and guys who play when the goalie is pulled also get negatives from that source. And of course quality of competition is important. The adjusted goals +/- in Corsica actually has Horvat at +8 (compared with his actual +/- of -1). Boeser is next at +5 (-5 actual). The worst guy is Goldy at -12 (-14 actual),

 

Quality of Competition: We might be inclined to go easy on Granlund on the grounds that he played a lot of tough minutes -- playing shutdown with Sutter early in the season. And he did have fairly tough minutes. But the toughest quality of competition (using TOI to measure quality of competition) in this group was experienced by Boeser and Horvat -- virtually tied. They faced the top D-pairing most of the time and also faced to the other team's top line when the home coach went with the "best vs. best" approach. (Green did not normally do that, as he tried to match the Sutter line against the other team's top line very consistently.)

 

Hits and blocked shots: Two of these guys had a lot of hits per 60. They were Motte (11.42) and Virtanen (10.94). No one else was close. Low man was Goldy at 1.7. As for blocked shots, it was closer. The leaders were Motte , Baertsch (!), and Virtanen. Low guys were Granlund and Goldobin.

 

Face-offs. Only two of these guys took an appreciable number of faceoffs. Horvat did well with a win rate of 52.9%. Granlund struggled with a win rate of only 41.4%.

 

Take-aways. The give-away stat is worse than useless (i.e. it is actively misleading). But the takeaway stat means something. The leaders are Virtanen at 3.43 per 60 and Leipsic at 3.1 per 60. No one else is close.

 

Bottom Line:

My take-aways are as follows.

 

1. We all know Boeser had a great rookie season. He did. He is already a good NHL first liner, even on a good team, and has no hidden flaws in his game.

 

2. That said, the most valuable forward on the team is Horvat. He does everything well and can kill penalties in addition, and contributes to the speed game and wears down opponents in puck battles. (And he has played well for Canada in the IIHF championships.) And he plays the tougher position, can go up against any center in the league, and drives play.

 

3. The most surprising good news story in the number is probably Leipsic. Statistically, he looks like a solid 3rd liner and he deserves to be on the team next year.

 

4. Virtanen, from a big picture point of view, given his speed and physical game in addition to his numbers, looks like a very good 4th liner or marginal 3rd liner at this stage. He should help the team next year.

 

Gaunce, Granlund, Motte, and Boucher are very questionable. I can't see any of them on a good NHL team given their performance last year. Of course, with Granlund, we might hope for a bounce-back given his previous performance.

 

Goldy is also questionable. He has offensive skill, but the rest of his game is not good enough for the NHL.

 

Lots of room for Pettersson in my view.

 

 

 

 

[-AJ-]

In response to your polls, I'd say Leipsic was the most surprising. I didn't expect much more than a 4th line energy guy, but he has an extra spark that implies he's at least capable of 3rd line stuff if not maybe even slotting into the top 6 now and then.

 

Granlund was the most short of my expectations by far. I think I had him projected for somewhere in the ball park of 20 goals.

[JeremyCuddles]

I was hardcore talking up Goldy last season. Declared him all but on the roster permanently this season. Did not happen that way. Fell short of expectations the most for me last season. Leipsic is probably the guy that exceeded expectations, if only because I expected another Boucher. Not hard to overperform no expectations. I voted no one because he came so late into the season. 

[spook007]

While I understand the many votes for Leipsic, I think Virtanen was the one, who seemed to come on leaps at the end of the seson. I expect big things from him next year.

Was disappointed with the progress of Gaunce last season. Not sure we'll see him again....

 

[Father Ryan]

The easiest vote was for Granlund, as a disappointment. While I didn't particularly think he would be a steady 20 goal scorer, for him to fall as far as he did was pretty bad. As far as pleasant surprise, that was a little closer. I went with Leipsig, but fairly close over Virtanen. You don't expect GMs to undervalue players as much as Leipsig was, in that trade. Holm may never be seen again, Leipsig could be middle 6 with us for a while.

[Glug Datt]

I felt most excited about virt's trajectory towards the seasons end, however in terms of actually exceeding expectations, I'm going with lips.. Jake should be improving every year, and I expect even better things next year..

 

and although I was really disappointed with granny's offensive numbers, I can extend a little grace because of his deployment.. hopefully he bounces back..

gaunce on the other hand was protected over sbisa, who isn't a god either, but I felt contributed to our squad more than bg ever will.. 

 

time will tell

[PlanB]

Gaunce literally quadrupled his goal output over the previous season while playing less games.   I don't think anyone can touch that type of development !

[smithers joe]

i liked motte's defensive game.  good 4th line player. goldobin has to play on the top 6, but hasn't cemented that position for himself yet. i'ld be happy with him playing his top game consistantly.  i think jake is going to break out and eventually be pettersson's  wingman and protector. earlier in the season, when granlund played with sutter and ericksson, he looked good and that was an effective line. 

i think it goes to chemistry with lines.  a player can be more effective with line mates that help him bring his best skills forward. 

[Rush17]

Leipsic was the biggest surprise too me. He came in after dominating the AHL and with the opportunity given he showed what he is capable of.  His backhand spin-a-ramma was just the cherry on top. He appears to be a big game player for the big game moments. It was nice seeing a player with some flash and dangle who can finish.  

 

Gaunce was the biggest disappointment without a question for me.  Slow, ineffective, and not nearly physical enough to make him worth a roster spot.  He needs to play a bigger role far more physical and far more intense out there. He just seemed like a slightly more physical, slower, and less offensively gifted Chaput from the willie era.  Gaunce imo will be lucky to be an extra forward next season.

[Drive-By Body Pierce]

Oops, I selected Goldobin instead of Granlund by accident. Stupid mornings.

[c00kies]

Granlund was pretty bad offensively this year, and looked pretty replaceable last season. If he doesn't show any improvement, I don't see him past next year.

[Rush17]

1 minute ago, c00kies said:

Granlund was pretty bad offensively this year, and looked pretty replaceable last season. If he doesn't show any improvement, I don't see him past next year.

I get what you are saying. I give him a pass based on the quality of linemates and injury time.  Hopefully, they ink him to term then put him back with offensively gifted players like a Gaudette where he can contribute more offensively. The one game he was put with the twins last year he netted 2 goals.

[Zhukini]

Goldobin really put it together at the end there, his woah that was his best game of the season, happened 3 or 4 times towards the end.

 

He's never going to win the Selke. Who cares. 

[J.I.A.H.N]

It dawned on me after these posts that

 

a ). we do not have a bonified  #1 LWer yet

b ). Baertschi isn't that guy, but has value in that he can play up for a short time

c ). Pettersson may be our #1 LWer....probably will be

d ). Leipsic is probably a #3

e ). Goldobin isn't that LWer we are looking for

f  ). Dahlen, although having potential may not be the guy either (remains to be seen)

g ). Which means to me there is an actual void at #2 LW

h )  E. Kane may be the LWer we are looking for, because there is no one with size and aggressiveness that can match what he brings to the  #1 or #2 LW Position

I ).  Gaunce needs to look around and ask himself if he wants to play in the NHL.(he has size and IQ) (Motte probably pushes him out)

 

I also believe that we should clear some of these players out while they have value.........aka Goldobin for sure, and maybe Baertschi sooner  than later also.

It should be noted that "IF" Baertschi is a 2nd line LW, we will be expecting (3 to 4 million) on this contract.....his value is not worth that, and Kane is a mere 3 million or so extra on top of that, but he is a bonified #1/#2 LW, something that Baertschi is not. I also don't think Baertschi is a good fit for the #3 or 4 LW spot........makes him kind of redundant

with the kids here. Kane can also play the #3 LW, which is a little more of a versatile roll. (If it is not Kane, it has to be something like him)

 

And although I am excited about Dahlen.........unless Pettersson does make it as a Center, there may be a question as what to do with him too. Keep in mind the age of these players, when saying we don't need Kane. Keep in mind we do have other (Gadjovich) players on the farm, and that Virtanen can play that side as well.

 

We will not be drafting LWers for a long while, unless uber skilled

 

A lot will depend on Pettersson's final position, but I see Kane (or like) coming in, Goldobin and Baertschi leaving.....both are worth 2nds at this very moment, but for how long?

 

I would support Bennings decision on these moves.

[Rush17]

36 minutes ago, Drive-By Body Pierce said:

Oops, I selected Goldobin instead of Granlund by accident. Stupid mornings.

You can recast your vote.  Click on the button near the poll

[luckylager]

Leiper was better than expected. Granny fell flat.

 

Young Stars will be interesting this year, looking forward to it already.

 

Come preseason, Gaudette, Pettersson, Dahlen, Jasek, Lind, and maybe a couple others will be putting fire under Gaunce, Granny, Motte, Goldy, Boucher and Dowd. That's pretty good internal competition. Ideally these 10 guys all play better than Gagner. 

 

Who knows, we might have a kid we just drafted making a case for himself. 

 

As of now, and just because..-

 

Pettersson Bo Boes

Goldy Sutter Virt

Baer Gaudette Eriksson 

Seems likely as our top 9 based on the current roster. Mix and match the middle six.

Leaves nine guys battling for the fourth line. 

(Dahlen/Boucher/Gaunce/Motte) LW

(Granny/Dowd) C

(Jasek/Lind/Gagner) RW 

 

Being forced to waive Gagner would be pretty encouraging and bode well for the future.

 

-EDIT- And I forgot Leipsic who could very well demote Goldy or Baer. 

 

It's gonna be interesting

 

[Crabcakes]

The stats based analysis is great.  It confirms what we think we know and it may show us some problems.  My take.....

 

Horvat, Baertschi and Granlund are mature players imo.  By this I mean that big gains in development have happened.  This is not to say that they won't improve in the future.

 

Boeser is still quite young (21) and I'm not going to lump him into the above group because we just don't know how good he will get if he improves his skating and strength.  If he has more upside than the above players, that would make Canuck fans very happy.

 

Granlund, as shown had low numbers in pp60 but decent numbers on the pp.  He was deployed on a defensive line most of the time but didn't really shine in that department according to the OP's stats.  This tells me that he may have been miscast in a shutdown role but who else would go on the Sutter line who was getting the 2nd most minutes a lot of the time?  I think that Granny's deployment is the product of a team with depth issues in this area.  In particular, depth in traditional top 6 centres.

 

Leipsic.  Should he be in the above group?  Maybe, I haven't seen enough of him but his stats are indicating that he could be a fit on the 3rd line in the future.  A keeper for now.  Like his speed.

 

Goldobin and Virtanten are at the point in their career where they are developing rapidly.  Virtanen in particular improved dramatically.  We may see very different numbers from him next season.  Goldobin has shown lots of skill and his stats back this up.  He also shows some deficiencies but I think that he is improving here too.  Goldy is a wait and see for me because unlike Jake, he is a top 6 player or nothing.

 

Boucher's numbers are telling me that he is a shoot first forward who has success at the American League level but less in the NHL.  He's a bubble guy, as I thought.

 

Motte I'm seeing nothing here to tell me he isn't Jayson Megna 2.0.  Like the speed.  But I like Megna's speed too.

 

Gaunce has always been perplexing.  I like his heavier style game (which is rare in this line up) and he does the little things very well but only seems to produce at the American League level.  I think he gets another year but it could be make or break for him.

 

Nice post OP

[Crabcakes]

17 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

It dawned on me after these posts that

 

a ). we do not have a bonified  #1 LWer yet

b ). Baertschi isn't that guy, but has value in that he can play up for a short time

c ). Pettersson may be our #1 LWer....probably will be

d ). Leipsic is probably a #3

e ). Goldobin isn't that LWer we are looking for

f  ). Dahlen, although having potential may not be the guy either (remains to be seen)

g ). Which means to me there is an actual void at #2 LW

h )  E. Kane may be the LWer we are looking for, because there is no one with size and aggressiveness that can match what he brings to the  #1 or #2 LW Position

I ).  Gaunce needs to look around and ask himself if he wants to play in the NHL.(he has size and IQ) (Motte probably pushes him out)

 

I also believe that we should clear some of these players out while they have value.........aka Goldobin for sure, and maybe Baertschi sooner  than later also.

It should be noted that "IF" Baertschi is a 2nd line LW, we will be expecting (3 to 4 million) on this contract.....his value is not worth that, and Kane is a mere 3 million or so extra on top of that, but he is a bonified #1/#2 LW, something that Baertschi is not. I also don't think Baertschi is a good fit for the #3 or 4 LW spot........makes him kind of redundant

with the kids here. Kane can also play the #3 LW, which is a little more of a versatile roll. (If it is not Kane, it has to be something like him)

 

And although I am excited about Dahlen.........unless Pettersson does make it as a Center, there may be a question as what to do with him too. Keep in mind the age of these players, when saying we don't need Kane. Keep in mind we do have other (Gadjovich) players on the farm, and that Virtanen can play that side as well.

 

We will not be drafting LWers for a long while, unless uber skilled

 

A lot will depend on Pettersson's final position, but I see Kane (or like) coming in, Goldobin and Baertschi leaving.....both are worth 2nds at this very moment, but for how long?

 

I would support Bennings decision on these moves.

I think that Baertchi's name gets passed around unjustly imo.  He's a bona fide 2LW as all the stats would tell you but on this team he is playing in the 1LW slot.  He's good defensively and scores at a 20 goal pace.  What's not to like?

 

On this team, they're going to have to decide between Baertschi and Goldobin at some point.  Goldy has more high end skill but is a liability defensively so far.  By the end of next season, Benning will know which player to keep.  Baer is an RFA this year so needs a new contract. 

Is Dahlen the same type of player?  There's probably only room for 1 of them long term.

 

If Gadjovich can develop right, he would make a nice 2LW with grit.  He is probably 2-3 years away.  

 

So this is the question for me, would you add Kane, who is not much of a team player, more of a me first player to fit that role long term?  He seems to be a nice fit in San Jose and Joe Thornton rolled out the welcome wagon for him but he's still saying that he's going to explore free agency.  He doesn't know when he's got it good.  Pass.

 

I think a lot of posters see this line up with multiple players who fit the same slot and are uncomfortable with it.  Benning wants players to always feel that they have to compete hard to keep their position in the line up no matter where they fit in.  We need to get used to this.  It is healthy for the team.

[HC20.0]

Horvat wasn’t so much a surprise, but he really took his game to the next level this year.

 

Leipsic was a great surprise. I had very low expectations when we acquired him. Virtanen as well. Virt’s quietly putting his game together. If he could find the back of the net a bit more, I honestly believe he could be a very good 2nd liner. 

 

I’m still not sold on Goldobin being an NHLer. His offensive skill is undeniable, but his flaws are pretty glaring. Next season I believe is going to be a do or die year.

 

Overall though Granlund or Gaunce were the most disappointing. Neither were able to take that next step this season. I love both, but I think one of them gets shipped out this summer.

[Alflives]

Virtanen should be playing on the left side.  He will be our number one LW.