Bouchard vs. Dobson - The Athletic's in-depth analysis

[D-Money]

I'm going to post an article from The Athletic. I don't normally do this, as I feel they do excellent work and hope people will subscribe so that it keeps on coming. However, I found this to be one of the best in-depth analysis articles I've read recently.

 

I'm posting this for 2 reasons:

1. There is a decent chance that Bouchard or Dobson may be who we take at #7 (hence placing the article in Canucks Talk), and
2. I feel it may convince some people on the fence to subscribe (if you like this stuff, the few bucks a month is totally worth it)

 

Quote

Brown: A data-driven comparison of Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson

By Mitch Brown Jun 1, 2018 26

 

One of the most fascinating debates going into this June’s NHL draft is Evan Bouchard vs. Noah Dobson.>

 

The two defencemen have been compared all season and it’s justified. Both are possible top-10 picks. They both absolutely racked up the points, with Bouchard grabbing 25 goals and 87 points in 67 games and Dobson scoring 17 times and tallying 69 points.

 

Both players continued to improve throughout the year, despite their teams moving in opposite directions. London traded away their core, while Acadie-Bathurst added to it en route to winning the Memorial Cup.

 

So, to get a better understanding of the differences and similarities of the two, I tracked eight games of each player as part of my CHL Tracking Project. The project, which features 17 teams and over 300 players, includes zone exits, entries, neutral zone defence, and various offensive measures. The results are relatively limited with a small sample size, but it does provide the basis of an interesting discussion.

 

Before delving into it, here are a few important considerations. First, due to Bouchard’s October 1999 birth date, he has a full extra season of major junior experience than Dobson. Second, Dobson’s team was significantly stronger than Bouchard’s, which has both advantages and disadvantages. Dobson certainly had more to work with, but London’s offence was funnelled through Bouchard. Third, Bouchard played huge minutes, with ice time estimates giving Bouchard a project-high 24 minutes of 5-on-5 time per game, and I reckon that’s conservative. Whereas Dobson played 21 minutes by the formula, but had two teammates within a minute, suggesting Acadie-Bathurst’s time on ice was more evenly spread out than London’s.

For more information on the project, including definitions, and the full data set, check out this piece.

 

Transition

The first of two ways I like to measure transition is by looking at zone exits, or breakouts. Dobson and Bouchard are both elite transition players, scoring at least in the 96th percentile in controlled exits per 60.

 

Both defenders are highly capable passers on the breakout, both averaging over nine pass exits per 60, with Dobson connecting his breakout passes 96 per cent of the time to Bouchard’s 86 per cent. I generally think that Bouchard connects with passes of greater difficulty than Dobson, and also tries to stretch passes and passes up the middle of the ice more often.

 

As shown by the controlled exit percentage, I noticed that Dobson can be somewhat reliant on uncontrolled breakouts under pressure, rather than navigating his way through traffic. Bouchard, on the other hand, has a knack for using the boards to send his teammates up the ice in a creative way.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30144839/TheAthletic-Bouchard-Bank-Pass.mp4

 

Dobson and Bouchard chose to carry the puck rather than pass for the breakout just over 40 per cent of the time, making them two of the most frequent carriers among defenders in the data set.

 

After choosing to carry, both Dobson and Bouchard are highly capable at entering the offensive zone. In fact, Dobson and Bouchard ranked second and third among defenders in my dataset in controlled entries per 60, behind only fellow 2018 NHL draft eligible Ryan Merkley.

 

Both Dobson and Bouchard rarely dump the puck in compared to their peers, while both are successful at gaining the offensive zone while carrying the puck just as often as many top-line CHL forwards.

 

However, Dobson and Bouchard achieve these similar results quite differently. Dobson relies on his explosive top-end speed to put defenders on their heels, rather than passing or stickhandling. It’s quite common to see Dobson explode around a defender with an outside burst of speed, like this:

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30145243/Noah-Dobson-CE-Net-Drive-Mar-10.mp4

 

Bouchard’s style is more methodical and creative. Rather than bursts of speed, Bouchard relies on give-and-goes with teammates. He has that little extra in terms of puck skills that enable him to make fakes and jukes to gain the zone in ways that Dobson can’t.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30145619/TheAthletic-CEs.mp4

 

In the clips above, there a couple of details that might be subtle, but important. After Bouchard defers to his teammates, he stays in the rush, he doesn’t retreat. He acts as the middle lane driver, brings a defender with him and creates space for his teammates behind him. 

 

I don’t think either player is a dynamic rush creator, but both are highly capable of leading or joining the rush. They’re both high-end to elite puck movers in the data set, and I fully suspect their puck-moving ability will be their strongest traits in the NHL.

 

Shooting

Both Bouchard and Dobson are volume shooters. Bouchard led all OHL blueliners with 4.43 shots on goal per game ,while Dobson led all QMJHL blueliners with 4.12. At 5-on-5, Dobson had the slight edge with 2.64 per game compared to Bouchard’s 2.57 (from prospect-stats.com).

 

In the eight-game sample, Dobson ranked in the 98th percentile with over 18 shot attempts (on goal + blocked + missed) per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. Bouchard scored in the 85th percentile, which is still very impressive, but not quite at the elite shot generation of Dobson.

 

The difference between the full season shot on goal data and this sample’s shot attempts lies in Bouchard’s superior ability to get pucks through traffic. Bouchard got an impressive 56 per cent of his shot attempts on goal, which ranked sixth among all defencemen who took at least 10 shots per 60 minutes played, while Dobson’s pucks through percentage was more average at 48 per cent.

 

Mechanics-wise, Bouchard has the more impressive shot. His wind-up is short, nonchalant even, and he generally keeps his shots low and hard. Dobson’s cannon tends to be a bit more erratic, and I find he sticks close to the boards fairly often, whereas Bouchard has a knack for stepping into the middle before firing.

 

A greater portion of Bouchard’s shot attempts came from a scoring chance location than Dobson’s, but their scoring chance generation is roughly the same at just over three per 60. They both fall just outside the 90th percentile among blueliners at generating scoring chances, which is very good, but not elite, and I don’t expect either player to translate it as a primary source of offensive generation in the NHL.

 

Playmaking

For all that is made of Bouchard’s shooting ability, I think he’s just as good of a playmaker. Bouchard produces scoring chance assists, basically assists for shots in a scoring location, at the third-highest rate of defenders in my data set. While Ryan Merkley is untouchable, Bouchard is in a closely-ranked grouping with four draft-eligible defenders – K’Andre Miller, Nicolas Beaudin, and Ty Smith – and elite CHL defender Kale Clague.

He has all the markings of a high-level playmaker – connects with creative passes of varying length, rarely puts teammates in bad positions, uses passes to create space across the ice – and it’s that threat of the shot that takes his playmaking to the elite-level in my data set.

 

 

There are two main ways that Bouchard exploits the respect that his shot gets with playmaking. First, the slap pass. This is more common on the power play than 5-on-5, but watch below as Bouchard winds up then slightly changes the angle to hit his teammate in the slot.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30150324/TheAthletic-Bouchard-Slap-Pass.mp4

 

The second is by showing shot and then working the puck either into, or across the slot for a shot. Notice how he quite literally shoots the puck off his teammate’s stick. 

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30150357/TheAthletic-Bouchard-shows-shot-pass-.mp4

 

For all the similarities between Bouchard and Dobson in this article, this is one area where I think Bouchard is clearly superior. Bouchard ranks in the 98th percentile of defenders at generating scoring chance assists, whereas Dobson ranks in the 72nd. Bouchard’s comparables were all high-end players, while Dobson’s are closer to good, not great players like Jett Woo, Benjamin Gleason, and Jarret Tyszka.

 

In the sample, the difference between 72nd and the 50th percentile is less than half a scoring chance assist every 60 minutes, whereas the difference between Bouchard’s 98th percentile and Dobson’s 72nd is more than two scoring chance assists per 60.

 

This isn’t to say that Dobson isn’t a noteworthy playmaker, but rather than he’s more dependent on his shot than passing skills to generate offence. When Dobson is looking to utilize his teammates, he can make high-level plays, especially when creeping off the point.

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/05/30150508/Noah-Dobson-HD-PSA-A1-Activation-Mar-4.mp4

 

In this way, I think of Bouchard as more of a multi-dimensional threat offensively. He might lack the skating of Dobson, but he’s every bit as good of a shooter, a better playmaker, and has more creativity. I think they are noteworthy traits.

 

Defence

The primary way I chose to look at defence in the project is through the neutral zone. Being below-average at preventing entries against doesn’t make a player below-average at defending, per se, which is an important distinction to make. Obviously, it’s preferable to prevent zone entries than not, but team structure plays a significant role.

 

I say this because of this comparison between Bouchard and Dobson, which at first glance paints a negative picture of Bouchard’s neutral zone defence.

 

Not only does even Bouchard force dump ins (Ctrl Entry Against %) at an absurdly low rate, he rarely prevents controlled entries (Ctrl Entry Prevention %). This is in stark contrast to Dobson, who was roughly average at forcing dump ins, but well above-average at preventing controlled entries.

 

Yet, I’ve rarely noted Bouchard as being bad defensively; in fact, it’s quite the opposite, and I’d reckon he’s roughly around the same level as Dobson.

A closer look found than Bouchard and the London Knights utilized the neutral zone trap in the games tracked, which meant that Bouchard was rarely targetted by opposing forwards as they had to go through London’s forwards first. The only times Bouchard really stepped up on forwards was in the defensive zone, meaning that tracking neutral zone defence exclusively fails to adequately measure Bouchard’s defensive ability. One way to control for this is by looking at the numbers relative to the rest of London’s defenders, in which case Bouchard falls right on team average.

 

Acadie-Bathurst fell closer in line with most junior teams in the project, meaning that Dobson’s ability to force dump ins was roughly average for both the team and the entire project. His ability to break up controlled entries scored in the 74th percentile, preventing just under 30 per cent of all controlled attempts against; 67 per cent of his breakups came in the neutral zone, compared to just 33 per cent within three strides of the blue line.

 

All this information means that Dobson is generally passive through the neutral zone, despite having most of his success at preventing controlled entries when being aggressive through the neutral zone. This might be a sample size oddity, but I’ve also noted that throughout viewings in the season. 

 

As alluded to at the beginning of the piece, ice time is a significant factor. Bouchard was likely consistently reaching over 30 or 35 minutes of all-situations ice time most games. In a league where back-to-backs are the norm, and three-in-threes are common, this meant that Bouchard paced himself. Which might explain why he had a tendency to look sluggish while skating or passive in his defensive zone coverage.

 

London and Acadie-Bathurst both significantly out-shot and out-chanced the opposition with Bouchard and Dobson on the ice as opposed to off. They had a wide-sweeping positive effect on the ice, which isn’t surprising in the least, considering their offensive ability.

 

Conclusion

Dobson and Bouchard are so closely ranked in my eyes. One way to illustrate this is merely averaging out the percentile ranking off all the categories talked about in this article. Dobson ranked fourth, behind K’Andre Miller, Ty Smith, and Kale Clague, while Bouchard ranks 14th.

 

However, the raw neutral zone defence numbers do not adequately account for team structure. Including just the offence, exits, entries, and shot rates categories has Dobson and Bouchard tied for fourth, with an average percentile rank of 85.

 

Bouchard’s on the older end of the draft class, and therefore has an extra year of junior experience. Dobson is a better skater, but I’m not convinced his puck skills are quite on par with Bouchard’s.

 

Ultimately, I lean Bouchard, but just as the data indicates, the difference is razor thin.

 

I fully expect both players to be impact NHLers for the next decade, minimum.

 

 

[stawns]

9 minutes ago, D-Money said:

I'm going to post an article from The Athletic. I don't normally do this, as I feel they do excellent work and hope people will subscribe so that it keeps on coming. However, I found this to be one of the best in-depth analysis articles I've read recently.

 

I'm posting this for 2 reasons:

1. There is a decent chance that Bouchard or Dobson may be who we take at #7 (hence placing the article in Canucks Talk), and
2. I feel it may convince some people on the fence to subscribe (if you like this stuff, the few bucks a month is totally worth it)

 

 

I'm happy to see Bouchard getting his due, but it also means he may very well not be there at #7.  I'm not particularly interested in Dobson, so hopefully Hughes, Boqvist or Kotkaniemi are there at #7 if Bouchard is gone

[D-Money]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

I'm happy to see Bouchard getting his due, but it also means he may very well not be there at #7.  I'm not particularly interested in Dobson, so hopefully Hughes, Boqvist or Kotkaniemi are there at #7 if Bouchard is gone

Based on the chatter, these 5 will likely be going in the top-6:

 

• Dahlin
• Svechnikov
• Zadina
• Wahlstrom
• Hughes

 

And Kotkaniemi or Tkachuk might end up there too. So one of Boqvist or Bouchard will fall to 7.

 

[5Fivehole0]

Bouchard is the next Pouliot.
Dobson is the right pick.

[Silky mitts]

Don’t want either 

 

wahlstrom, Hughes, tkachuk

[D-Money]

4 minutes ago, 5Fivehole0 said:

Bouchard is the next Pouliot.
Dobson is the right pick.

Pouliot scored 59 points in 72 games for Portland in his draft year. Thing is, he was the 5th highest scorer on the team. Ty Rattie got 121 points that year. DP wasn't even the highest scoring D-man (Joe Morrow, with 64 points in 62 games).

 

In situations like that, you have to think that Pouliot got a lot of "easy" assists. To some extent, I worry about the same with Dobson.

 

However, Bouchard was far-and-away the top scorer on his team. And he certainly made lemonade from those lemons. I wonder what he would have done on a good team...

[D-Money]

8 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Don’t want either 

 

wahlstrom, Hughes, tkachuk

Yay...more wingers.

[5Fivehole0]

7 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Don’t want either 

 

wahlstrom, Hughes, tkachuk

Hughes and Tkachuk will be gone between 4-6

Dahlin
Svechnikov
Zadina
Tkachuk
Boqvist
Hughes
Dobson
Wahlstrom
Bouchard
Ty Smith

[Russ]

12 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Don’t want either 

 

wahlstrom, Hughes, tkachuk

I think most want Hughes but I am pretty sure he's going to the first D picked well before Canucks get to him.

 

Now for Wahlstrom and Tkachuk... I know both are listed as centers/wingers but whats the realistic chance either would be a center?  That for me would weight into it a lot especially if they felt Petterson would be more effective as a winger then you need a center who could carry that line.  If neither is expected to be a center in the NHL I think I would rather go Dobson. 

 

This is gonna be a fun draft and theres gonna be lots of arguments among Canuck fans for years to come as always haha

[JM_]

23 minutes ago, stawns said:

I'm happy to see Bouchard getting his due, but it also means he may very well not be there at #7.  I'm not particularly interested in Dobson, so hopefully Hughes, Boqvist or Kotkaniemi are there at #7 if Bouchard is gone

I'd be very happy with one of these two. 

[JM_]

@D-Money - is this typical of the articles on the Athletic? thinking about trying it out 

[189lb enforcers?]

If Boqvist or BT fall to 7, Benning will do a happy dance. 

I think I’d take Bouchard over Dobson. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

If Boqvist or BT fall to 7, Benning will do a happy dance. 

I think I’d take Bouchard over Dobson. 

I’m in agreement with you.  I heard a Montreal reporter, on the radio, saying the Habs (if they can’t trade down a couple spots) might grab that Kotkaniemi kid.  He also said Dobson has climbed very high.  

This top ten could be a lot of fun to watch.

[189lb enforcers?]

14 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I’m in agreement with you.  I heard a Montreal reporter, on the radio, saying the Habs (if they can’t trade down a couple spots) might grab that Kotkaniemi kid.  He also said Dobson has climbed very high.  

This top ten could be a lot of fun to watch.

It’s tough to compare a Dman from the Q to one from the O, but this article does it. I don’t like the comparables as they are largely situational. I’d like to have watched more of them head-to-head at WJ camps or something where they play in the same system, on the same team and against the same players. I’m guessing at their trajectory as much as the next google-guy. These articles are full of fluff, mainly. 

 

Is Bouchard the next Gonchar/Shattenkirk while Dobson is the next Pietrangelo? Awesome, but Boqvist might be the next Karlsson. The luxury. Tank on! 

 

This top 10 will be really fun to watch, like you and others have said. Soon, it’s Christmas morning for us! I’m excited. 

[Darius]

After listening to Mckenzie's latest podcast (highly recommend you listen to it .... makes me realize how far behind our local sports journalists are) and reading this article I can only conclude 1 thing.....the chances are VERY high that we are going to get an awesome player at #7.  After the top 3 go the talent differences between the next 5 seem to be very small...some will make an impact sooner than others...thats prob the only difference.

[Russ]

11 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

@D-Money - is this typical of the articles on the Athletic? thinking about trying it out 

Yea this is pretty common article.  They go very indepth on the articles constantly.  Might get slow throughout the summer with lack of hockey/basketball but still very interesting.  I signed up and am very happy, I enjoy reading quality journalism articles, not the crap TSN and Sportsnet put out these days that are hacked together in mere minutes.

[combover]

Dobson is the player I hope we get. HAs size 6’3  and skill  a good skater and the rare RHD. 

 

 

 

[timberz21]

I don't really care who we pick, I trust Benning....fact is, often the 1st defenseman pick in the draft is not the same one when you re-do the draft a couple years later.  So I hope, there isn't 6 forward picked before us.

 

Juolevi

Hanifin

R.Murray

Larsson

Gudbransson

Hickey

[coastal.view]

46 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Don’t want either 

 

wahlstrom, Hughes, tkachuk

yeah why invest in top end d talent

not flashy and generally need development time

clearly not as exciting

[canucksnihilist]

Awesome article!  Thanks for posting it!

 

im on the Bouchard side...  I like the upside of the creativity aka playmaking.  Potentially elite.  That’s our PP quarterback.   I’ve read a canucksarmy article on his skating... and actually I’m not worried about that.  Skating and explosiveness can be improved with training - creativity and playmaking can’t.

 

Dobson is going to be a good solid player by the sounds of it - Probably not an elite PP quarterback. But potentially a better defender - size plays a role too.  So we kind of really want both of them!   Haha fat chance.

 

 

A