Bouchard vs. Dobson - The Athletic's in-depth analysis

[D-Money]

27 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

@D-Money - is this typical of the articles on the Athletic? thinking about trying it out 

This is one of the better ones of recent memory. But yeah, overall, there is a lot of great in-depth stuff on there. Tyler Dellow, in particular, does deep dives on players far beyond anything you can find in mainstream media.

 

[stawns]

55 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Based on the chatter, these 5 will likely be going in the top-6:

 

• Dahlin
• Svechnikov
• Zadina
• Wahlstrom
• Hughes

 

And Kotkaniemi or Tkachuk might end up there too. So one of Boqvist or Bouchard will fall to 7.

 

I think Kotkaniemi goes before Walhstrom.  A cman, better all around player and makes the players around him better.......and still 17 with a year of pro under his belt.

[189lb enforcers?]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

I think Kotkaniemi goes before Walhstrom.  A cman, better all around player and makes the players around him better.......and still 17 with a year of pro under his belt.

I’ll take that bet. 

[luckylager]

Still leaning Bouchard

[JM_]

Just now, luckylager said:

Still leaning Bouchard

it sucks we missed out again on 1st oa, but this again looks to be a really good draft for us with solid choices. We may not have got the blonde but we got her really fun brunette friend. 

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

it sucks we missed out again on 1st oa, but this again looks to be a really good draft for us with solid choices. We may not have got the blonde but we got her really fun brunette friend. 

I like this one.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, D-Money said:

I'm going to post an article from The Athletic. I don't normally do this, as I feel they do excellent work and hope people will subscribe so that it keeps on coming. However, I found this to be one of the best in-depth analysis articles I've read recently.

 

I'm posting this for 2 reasons:

1. There is a decent chance that Bouchard or Dobson may be who we take at #7 (hence placing the article in Canucks Talk), and
2. I feel it may convince some people on the fence to subscribe (if you like this stuff, the few bucks a month is totally worth it)

 

 

It’s an ok article but you can see it’s fairly biased in the way everything is presented.  Anytime the stats point to Dobson over Bouchard (which is most of the time) he finds a way to come up with “reasoning” as to why Bouchard might have been hindered (aka neutral zone trap, playing to many minutes, teammates).  He admits he would dig into things further to examine why (for Bouchard) in order to write his negative findings off.  Yet when stats point to Bouchard, there was no notation of him digging further, just him writing it off as pure fact.  To be honest this is less of a comparison and more of a person coming up with excuses for Bouchard. 

[luckylager]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

it sucks we missed out again on 1st oa, but this again looks to be a really good draft for us with solid choices. We may not have got the blonde but we got her really fun brunette friend. 

Lol, I hear ya. 

I really want a dman. I'd be pretty surprised if JB picked a forward, but they have a list and I'm confident we'll come out of the first round with a beauty, maybe even two.

Could magically take a blonde and a brunette home. Winning!

[ForsbergTheGreat]

 

 

Quote

However, Bouchard was far-and-away the top scorer on his team. And he certainly made lemonade from those lemons. I wonder what he would have done on a good team...

A couple things to point out, Bouchard did play with good teammates, really good teammates infact 

 

He played with Miletic who put up 54 points in 35 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.54 p/pg

He played with Thomas who put up 46 points in 27 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.70 p/pg

He played with Pu who put up 45 points in 36 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.25 p/pg

 

He also played the majority of the season with Alex Formenton, a player who made the NHL out of training camp.

 

These are talented players that Bouchard benefited playing with, had they not got traded prior to the OHL trade deadline, this notion that he was 20+ points over the next player on his team would not be bragged about.  He wouldn’t even had ended up as the highest point player on his team. 

 

This would be the case with majority teams if they traded away their top 3 scoring forwards, for example if Acadie traded away Morand, Tuchon and Maher, Dobson would have lead his team and the next top scoring forward Crossman who was 25 points behind Dobson.  So really this point is moot. 

 

Had Bouchard have more talented D teammates he wouldn’t have got 30 minutes a game, he wouldn’t have been put on the ice for all the ozone opportunity and powerplay minutes.  If Mete didn’t make the Canadiens this year, Bouchard’s team would have been better but the Knights would have relied far less on Bouchard. End result wouldn’t have been positive for bouchard as a individual. 

[189lb enforcers?]

21 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

 

A couple things to point out, Bouchard did play with good teammates, really good teammates infact 

 

He played with Miletic who put up 54 points in 35 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.54 p/pg

He played with Thomas who put up 46 points in 27 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.70 p/pg

He played with Pu who put up 45 points in 36 games while playing with the Knights, that’s 1.25 p/pg

 

He also played the majority of the season with Alex Formenton, a player who made the NHL out of training camp.

 

These are talented players that Bouchard benefited playing with, had they not got traded prior to the OHL trade deadline, this notion that he was 20+ points over the next player on his team would not be bragged about.  He wouldn’t even had ended up as the highest point player on his team. 

 

This would be the case with majority teams if they traded away their top 3 scoring forwards, for example if Acadie traded away Morand, Tuchon and Maher, Dobson would have lead his team and the next top scoring forward Crossman who was 25 points behind Dobson.  So really this point is moot. 

 

Had Bouchard have more talented D teammates he wouldn’t have got 30 minutes a game, he wouldn’t have been put on the ice for all the ozone opportunity and powerplay minutes.  If Mete didn’t make the Canadiens this year, Bouchard’s team would have been better but the Knights would have relied far less on Bouchard. End result wouldn’t have been positive for bouchard as a individual. 

I’m not going to also spend much time poking at this hunk of Swiss cheese because I think it’s fairly obvious to serious hockey fans anyways, but don’t forget this pearl from the author:

 

“Yet, I’ve rarely noted Bouchard as being bad defensively; in fact, it’s quite the opposite, and I’d reckon he’s roughly around the same level as Dobson. 

A closer look found than Bouchard and the London Knights utilized the neutral zone trap in the games tracked, which meant that Bouchard was rarely targetted by opposing forwards as they had to go through London’s forwards first.”

 

Half-way through the article he alludes to systems, but just one and just keeps moving, using the stats which suit his narrative without shame. Fair enough, but, analysis? Hardly. 

 

Bouchard gets to take credit  ^ here for much of the team’s structural successes. Even the outlet passes, mainly, likely chipped in for line changes on his “long break out pass” which are “tougher to make than Dobson’s”. The same contextual courtesy is dishonesty in not applied to Dobson the same way. Again, I say the entire piece is based on situational stats from diffferent worlds, comparatively. 

 

This guy might as well just just front-load and admit that he likes Bouchard at the start of this opinion piece. 

[JM_]

15 minutes ago, luckylager said:

Lol, I hear ya. 

I really want a dman. I'd be pretty surprised if JB picked a forward, but they have a list and I'm confident we'll come out of the first round with a beauty, maybe even two.

Could magically take a blonde and a brunette home. Winning!

I'm hoping for Boqvist. Jim already made a safe (and good imo) pick on Juolevi, so I'd like to go for the high ceiling this time. 

 

I guess if somehow Tkachuk falls to 7 we might be able to rob Calgary of their 2019 1st rounder + Hamilton but then we'd have the douchy Tkachuk brothers beating up on us for years. 

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, D-Money said:

I'm going to post an article from The Athletic. I don't normally do this, as I feel they do excellent work and hope people will subscribe so that it keeps on coming. However, I found this to be one of the best in-depth analysis articles I've read recently.

 

I'm posting this for 2 reasons:

1. There is a decent chance that Bouchard or Dobson may be who we take at #7 (hence placing the article in Canucks Talk), and
2. I feel it may convince some people on the fence to subscribe (if you like this stuff, the few bucks a month is totally worth it)

 

 

this is more likely ranking

 

More scouts with knowledge likely to favour Dobson simply as he has an additional year to develop before all the hype and expectation - plus he was nearly equal in most statistics to Bouchard yet a year earlier in his CHL career.

 

2018 NHL Draft: Bouchard vs. Dobson

Scouts discuss abilities of each defenseman, debate who should be chosen first

by Mike G. Morreale @mikemorrealeNHL / NHL.com Staff Writer

 June 12th, 2018

 Share

There's a good chance at least two right-handed defensemen are selected among the top-7 picks in the 2018 NHL Draft at American Airlines Center in Dallas.

The first round is June 22 (7:30 p.m. ET; NBCSN, SN, TVAS). Rounds 2-7 are June 23 (11 a.m. ET; NHLN, SN, TVAS).

After Frolunda left-hander Rasmus Dahlin is likely the first defenseman off the board, expect a pair of right-handers, Evan Bouchard of London in the Ontario Hockey League and Noah Dobson of Acadie-Bathurst in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, to hear their names announced not too far behind.

Bouchard is No. 4 on NHL Central Scouting's final list of North American skaters. Dobson is No. 5.

Who should be selected first?

"Bouchard and Dobson each have the ability to control and dictate the play, and do so in their own unique way to get results," said Dan Marr, Director of NHL Central Scouting. 

Bouchard (6-foot-2, 193 pounds) led all OHL defensemen with 87 points (25 goals, 62 assists) in 67 regular-season games. He's the first defenseman to finish among the top 10 scorers in the league since Windsor's Ryan Ellis (Nashville Predators) was tied for fourth with 101 points in 2010-11.

 

 

 

2018 NHL Combine: Bouchard

 

• 00:55 • June 2nd, 2018

"Bouchard is very composed and able to execute plays at speed," Marr said. "He sees the ice, reads the play and moves the puck quickly."

Dobson (6-3, 180) set career-highs in goals (17), assists (52), points (69), power-play goals (11) and shots on goal (276) in his second season for the Titan. 

"Dobson plays a heads-up game and possesses an up-gear to pull away or lead a rush; his smarts and puck skills make him an effective player at both blue lines," Marr said.

Dobson helped the Titan win their first Memorial Cup title after scoring seven points (two goals, five assists) in four tournament games.

"To me, Dobson has a little more skating ability that allows him to have more of an impact," said Craig Button, TSN resident director of scouting, NHL analyst and former NHL general manager. "Evan is a real smart player, but for a player as smart as Noah at the next level, not that the demands are easier, but the game is easier because everyone is in the right position. I give the edge to Noah."

In a poll conducted by NHL.com of 10 NHL scouts, Dobson had a 6-4 advantage.

NHL.com sought the opinions of NHL scouts who watched Bouchard and Dobson this season. They promised honesty for anonymity.

 

 

 

2018 NHL Combine: Dobson

 

• 01:15 • June 2nd, 2018

 

In favor of Bouchard

"Depending which team gets him, he's probably an NHL player next year, in my opinion. I think he's going to be on a team that potentially could use him right away and play. I've heard some stories of two teams who would step up to take him at either No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 because they think he can play for them next year if paired up with the right guy."

"Bouchard has too much of a complete game. I like Dobson's shot and ability, but I think his skating has to smooth out a little bit. I think Bouchard is already there. To score like he scored this season was pretty amazing to watch." 

"I've never seen a defenseman get every single shot through with so much consistency. He's got an NHL one-timer that will translate to the next level and knows how to take velocity off his one-timer to still get it on net, and it's still a hard shot. I don't see Dobson producing like Bouchard. I've seen Bouchard go toe-to-toe with some of the fastest players in the OHL. He's got no issues with his feet so those worries were put to bed for me a long time ago."

 

In favor of Dobson

"To me there's just so much upside with Dobson and he hasn't even come close to filling out. Bouchard is a third-year guy in the OHL and next year I think Dobson is going to be really impressive as an 18-year-old. I think Dobson is going to be even more impressive than what Bouchard did at 18. Dobson is special, and has so much more room to grow into that body and get stronger and better."

"Dobson has a longer runway, more upside. We're witnessing the tip of the iceberg with the potential he has."

"Historically, the prospects from The Maritimes are behind the curve, but where Dobson has come in his two years is too good to ignore. He's a right shot, is 6-foot-3 and can skate all day. He's a hockey junkie, too. In our interview with him, we asked him to give us the top line for Victoriaville and he listed the players, 'bang-bang-bang.' We discussed the forecheck implemented by Regina in the Memorial Cup championship game and he offered his take on what he felt they were trying to do. He studies the game, and had great responses to those questions."

 

[189lb enforcers?]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I'm hoping for Boqvist. Jim already made a safe (and good imo) pick on Juolevi, so I'd like to go for the high ceiling this time. 

 

I guess if somehow Tkachuk falls to 7 we might be able to rob Calgary of their 2019 1st rounder + Hamilton but then we'd have the douchy Tkachuk brothers beating up on us for years. 

Trade for MT then. 

Lets be the bully not the victim. 

[Vinny in Vancouver]

I know the following article has been pointed out in this forum, but I think they do a good job evaluating Bouchard's skating: https://canucksarmy.com/2018/06/12/should-the-canucks-be-worried-about-evan-bouchards-skating/. This part concerns me: "Where Bouchard’s lack of deftness really gets exposed is in tight spaces." FWIW, I've read from other posters who said they follow OHL games regularly that fast guys have an easy time going around him. That said, I love Bouchard's shot and his leadership skills. I also think he has high IQ. But the skating...

[189lb enforcers?]

These two kids are only 2 months and a few days apart in age so I don’t buy into the “extra development time” part for draft rankings, used to prop up Dobson’s future. 

If we play that game then Boqvist is going to be superman. 

[SpennyCanuck]

This is the way i break it down:

 

These players will for sure be picked by 7:

Dahlin
Svechnikov
Zadina

 

4-10 (in no order)

Tkachuk
Hughes
Dobson
Wahlstrom
Bouchard
Ty Smith

Kotkaniemi 

 

Safe picks (well as safe as they come)

Dobson

Bouchard

Tkachuk 

Wahlstrom

 

Top line/ 1st pairing (High ceiling picks)

Hughes

Wahlstrom

Boqvist 

 

Risk it for the biscuit (high ceiling, low floor) 

Boqvist 

 

greatest potential at 7 would be Hughes and Wahlstrom 

Safest pick would be Dobson and Tkachuk (middle pairing or middle 6) 

 

I would be happy with any of the four players bold'd above. 

 

 

[JM_]

10 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Trade for MT then. 

Lets be the bully not the victim. 

I'd rather sign Reaves and keep the pick.

 

Its just kind of a fascinating deal... I wonder what Calgary would give up to have those two brothers together? It would define that team for years. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I'd rather sign Reaves and keep the pick.

 

Its just kind of a fascinating deal... I wonder what Calgary would give up to have those two brothers together? It would define that team for years. 

If Tkachuk is still there at 7 I wouldn’t be surprised if the Flames and Oilers phone JB.  

[higgyfan]

3 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

These two kids are only 2 months and a few days apart in age so I don’t buy into the “extra development time” part for draft rankings, used to prop up Dobson’s future. 

If we play that game then Boqvist is going to be superman. 

Yes, this is true.  I think the big difference is that Bouchard has been pounding the ice +30 mins a game all season long.  I would think that would escalate his development and that is why scouts think he will be in the NHL very soon.

 

They're both good prospects, but we may see Dobson's development eclipse Bouchard's at some point.

 

Yes...Boqvist is going to become superman...or mighty mouse  Either way, he will shine in the NHL, although it will take him longer than the likes of Dobson and Bouchard.

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If Tkachuk is still there at 7 I wouldn’t be surprised if the Flames and Oilers phone JB.  

I think so too, that Edmonton 10th + JP would be a nice trade. I'd love to stick it to Calgary that way too