Bouchard vs. Dobson - The Athletic's in-depth analysis

[on the cycle]

8 hours ago, D-Money said:

Yay...more wingers.

Wahlstrom is a natural center. It's just that he was on the same line as Jack Hughes.

[stawns]

2 hours ago, vinny_in_vancouver said:

Which is the opposite: lack of deftness in skating, great shot, great leadership, high hockey IQ. If it's the deftness or agility, there are videos showing that he does have this limitation - he has a hard time turning fast enough. Do note that he can skate north-south just fine.

I think it's more of a style issue than an actual skill issue.  Button says that while Dobson looks smoother, Bouchard is actually a better, more agile skater at this point

[stawns]

7 minutes ago, on the cycle said:

Wahlstrom is a natural center. It's just that he was on the same line as Jack Hughes.

He was moved to wing before playing with Hughes.  He will be a winger in the NHL

[Russ]

7 hours ago, Down by the River said:

The more I read the less confident I become in thinking that I have any idea who the best pick is at #7. 

Ditto, about a month ago I thought I had probably 2 in mind who would be there, now its about 6 and am unsure about who I would rather see picked.  So much info, and every scout has such different views on how they see guys.

[oldnews]

4 hours ago, Vanuckles said:

Really interesting analysis, thanks for taking the time. It was quite clear you were leaning towards Bouchard in your analysis even before we got to the conclusion  A few thoughts:

 

Bouchard having an extra year in Junior goes a LONG way. Especially in Junior hockey. I don't buy the difference in puck skills, I think Dobson can get to Bouchard's level strictly from a stick handling standpoint. I like that Dobson has great top speed, it goes a long way in the speed and skill era. Bouchard's minutes are unbelievable, I did not expect that, so you can bet your bottom dollar that it has a significant effect on his playing style. Not even grown men can withstand that heavy workload without faltering mentally AND physically.

 

I was hoping you would do a little more analysis on the defensive end. Dobson is a defensive stalwart in his own zone, and he's got a good active stick. Bouchard is defensively sound, however not quite on the same level as Dobson. That said, as you alluded to in your analysis, playing 30-35 mins a night takes it's toll so you have to be a lot more conservative with your skating. Dobson also has a lot more help from his teammates so he's not always the standalone spearhead in the defensive efforts, so that gives him a bit of an advantage. One could argue that it means it is a wash between them defensively, but we know Dobson is a stalwart defensively, whereas there's a grey area with Bouchard, like can he be aggressive with the neutral zone entry, are his gaps where they need to be etc.

 

Offensively, Bouchard has a better shot and is a better playmaker, but again, who's to say that Dobson cannot improve his shot this summer... Bouchard still might have the advantage there, but it might not be as big of a difference as you might think. Again, Bouchard does have an extra year under his belt.

 

Torn between the 2, and it's even more challenging when you have Boqvist and Hughes enter the equation. I wish we have all top 10 picks this year. Really hoping JB can snag EDM's or CHI's pick somehow. Even if we don't land another Dman, there are a lot of really good forwards we can take - namely Tkachuk and Wahlstrom imo.

on that note, I think the impact that speed has is generally underestimated on the defensive side of the puck - particularly against the rush (and the NHL is increasingly a transition game) as well as the ability to get back, and retrieve pucks before the forecheck can close - those are often blindspots imo.

It's possible that Bouchard can improve his skating significantly, but at the same time, there's nothing to say that Dobson can't improve in the nuanced areas where the author considers Bouchard exceptional - puck movement / finding shooting lanes, shot accuracy, etc.

hard to pass on the better skater when the overall picture is that close.

 

 

[CanucksJay]

8 hours ago, SpennyCanuck said:

This is the way i break it down:

 

These players will for sure be picked by 7:

Dahlin
Svechnikov
Zadina

 

4-10 (in no order)

Tkachuk
Hughes
Dobson
Wahlstrom
Bouchard
Ty Smith

Kotkaniemi 

 

Safe picks (well as safe as they come)

Dobson

Bouchard

Tkachuk 

Wahlstrom

 

Top line/ 1st pairing (High ceiling picks)

Hughes

Wahlstrom

Boqvist 

 

Risk it for the biscuit (high ceiling, low floor) 

Boqvist 

 

greatest potential at 7 would be Hughes and Wahlstrom 

Safest pick would be Dobson and Tkachuk (middle pairing or middle 6) 

 

I would be happy with any of the four players bold'd above. 

 

 

I think you missed Boqvist in the 4-10 group. 

I would put him there and push Ty Smith out of top ten

[Western Red]

Dobson will be gone at 7 I think.

[hammertime]

13 hours ago, D-Money said:

Yay...more wingers.

I have flip flopped on Tacotruck he's got north south speed, silky mitts and will retrieve the puck and pass it to sneaky Pete and go stand in front of the net. He's kinda exactly what the Canucks need. 

 

 

Bae Bo Boeser

Brady Pete Virtanen

 

I like that top 6 "float like a butterfly sting like a bee"

 

[hammertime]

4 hours ago, on the cycle said:

Wahlstrom is a natural center. It's just that he was on the same line as Jack Hughes.

So he's at least as good as Dane Fox amiright??

[hammertime]

2 hours ago, Western Red said:

Dobson will be gone at 7 I think.

I doubt both of Hughes Dobson will be gone at 7 but if that is the case a hell of a good forward dropped to us. 

[YummyCakeFace]

Do people actually submit to the athletic?  Really?

[IBatch]

17 hours ago, Odjick29willkillyou said:

Soooooo just spitballing here, but what if we were able to draft Kotkaniemi at 7 and then trade down with another team between 15-30 and pick up Merkley? I know there is a lot of talk about character issues, but he has the body, skill and NHL game that can translate right away. It is not like he has a criminal record, but more so commitment issues which is something that a coach like Greener could turn around. We could literally get the 1C and 1/2D we so desperately need from this draft. Or it could blow up in our faces after Merkley robs a bank and goes on a murdering spree. 

Merkley is a gigantic black hole on defense which is the other reason he's predicted to go late in the first or early second round.  But he has the top five skill set that might make a lot of teams wish they took the risk...

[IBatch]

Of everyone in the draft Bouchard is on a small list of guys that could play to start next season which could help his draft position.  I think Benning would pick him if he's still there as a tie breaker of sorts given we are so far behind on the defensive side of the equation.  Helps that he played with OJ too maybe.      Dobson needs to add twenty pounds, he looked small side by side at the combine, and it worries me a little that he had great teammates that helped boost his stats where as Bouchard used lesser teammates more and still piled up the points.  He's strong too for a man sized guy top ten in pull ups is impressive (it's usually the little guys that kill this ) and all those minutes helped him place top ten in stamina, don't see him as a guy that will miss a lot of time to injury.  Like Dobson too, just think we need Bouchard  more.

[DrJockitch]

That is a lot of assumptions.  Number of pullups and chance of getting injured are related?

The last thing that should come into a GMs consideration is likely if NHL ready this year.  Now that is the first thing considered in evaluating a player on CDC, but should be very low on the list of considerations for GM.  Look at what you think the player will be in their prime. 

[SpennyCanuck]

14 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

I think you missed Boqvist in the 4-10 group. 

I would put him there and push Ty Smith out of top ten

I have a feeling that due to this concussion history, hes going to fall a bit.

Also, wouldn't be surprised if the Canucks drafted him.

But definitely not my first choice. 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, DrJockitch said:

That is a lot of assumptions.  Number of pullups and chance of getting injured are related?

The last thing that should come into a GMs consideration is likely if NHL ready this year.  Now that is the first thing considered in evaluating a player on CDC, but should be very low on the list of considerations for GM.  Look at what you think the player will be in their prime. 

No but playing every game 30-35 minutes sure is, and he won't be broken into pieces the first time he's hit hard either given he's a bigger body.  Sheesh like that was what I was saying....

 

How about this instead, he has a higher ceiling because he's a better stick handler, passer and shooter than Dobson, has a higher  IQ, uses his teammates better.  He can take skating lessons to add speed, his agility is at least as good already.  And like I said, we are already behind on defense and waiting an extra two years actually means something with this core, NHL readiness matters too.  It's not just my opinion, virtually every panel of scouts prefers Bouchard, guys likening him to Pouilet or Gudbranson should shake their heads  neither of them were built for the PP, lead their team in scoring or were top ten overall in the OHL.  Dobson reminds me of Hamhuis, Bouchard Peitrangelo

[A.V.'s slurp]

6 hours ago, IBatch said:

Merkley is a gigantic black hole on defense which is the other reason he's predicted to go late in the first or early second round.  But he has the top five skill set that might make a lot of teams wish they took the risk...

Lead CHL analyst Sam Cosentino was on the 31 thoughts podcast this week to talk draft. Believes Merkley will be taken by a team with multiple picks in the first round like the NYR.

 

He was really high on Dobson and depending on MTL and OTT, he could go anywhere from 3-5. Bergevin is high on Kotkaniemi. Sam thought the better job saving pick is Tkachuk since he will play sooner. But if MB is confident in keeping his job he should take Dobson. Then with OTT, he thought that depending on who gets moved (Hoffman or Karlsson) they will take his replacement. I.e. Zadina or Dobson. 

 

Had Ari going D

 

Det grabbing Hughes because Blashil got to see him at worlds, and the Michigan connection. Felt that he has the best chance of slipping though since he skipped the combines. Said many teams didn't like that.

 

Us going D with who's left, thought Bouchard was a good fit. Possibly Boqvist as well.

 

It was a pretty good listen this week.

[DrJockitch]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

No but playing every game 30-35 minutes sure is, and he won't be broken into pieces the first time he's hit hard either given he's a bigger body.  Sheesh like that was what I was saying....

 

How about this instead, he has a higher ceiling because he's a better stick handler, passer and shooter than Dobson, has a higher  IQ, uses his teammates better.  He can take skating lessons to add speed, his agility is at least as good already.  And like I said, we are already behind on defense and waiting an extra two years actually means something with this core, NHL readiness matters too.  It's not just my opinion, virtually every panel of scouts prefers Bouchard, guys likening him to Pouilet or Gudbranson should shake their heads  neither of them were built for the PP, lead their team in scoring or were top ten overall in the OHL.  Dobson reminds me of Hamhuis, Bouchard Peitrangelo

I think they are both great prospects and would be thrilled to get either, same with Hughes (He won't get past Detroit).  I think in today's NHL skating and particularly cutting and acceleration are some of the most important skills but Bouchard is a big guy and a huge minutes muncher since he was playing on such a bad team.  He likely developed a certain amount of, lets call it efficiency, in his game and so looks a little lazy at times because of the demands of playing 30-35 minutes a game.

 

Bouchard is also one of the older players in the draft so his physical maturity is not surprisingly better.  I still don't like to use current physical maturity at 18 as a important determinant in draft position, young men develop at different rates and get different vastly levels of coaching/training in Juniors.  Draft on what you think you can turn him into.  Sure if a physical specimen like Lindros comes along then yeah look at that but if we dismissed Pettersson because of his lack of physical maturity where would we be.

 

[Bissurnette]

20 hours ago, oldnews said:

on that note, I think the impact that speed has is generally underestimated on the defensive side of the puck - particularly against the rush (and the NHL is increasingly a transition game) as well as the ability to get back, and retrieve pucks before the forecheck can close - those are often blindspots imo.

It's possible that Bouchard can improve his skating significantly, but at the same time, there's nothing to say that Dobson can't improve in the nuanced areas where the author considers Bouchard exceptional - puck movement / finding shooting lanes, shot accuracy, etc.

hard to pass on the better skater when the overall picture is that close.

 

 

Sorry I'm in Halifax and I saw your post too late (and too inebriated if I'm honest) to write back anything legible haha...

 

I agree, of course skating goes a long way in the defensive zone, but like you said maybe Bouchard improves his skating and then he's a clear cut favourite. Or maybe he's actually a better skater than he's showing but he's playing heavy, hard minutes so he's trying to be as conservative as he possibly can. I honestly don't think skating is a huge deal anymore because coaches are so good these days that they will hone in on the player's weak point and improve their skating.

 

Defensively I prefer Dobson between the 2 for the very reason you mentioned, as well as he seems to always have a good active stick to disrupt plays while somehow always being in the right position. And he is a known commodity in that regard.

 

I believe Hughes will be gone by the time we pick, so I think it'll be between Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson. Who would be your pick? You're a knowledgeable poster on these boards and I value your opinion so that's why I'm asking in case your wondering

[oldnews]

1 hour ago, Vanuckles said:

Sorry I'm in Halifax and I saw your post too late (and too inebriated if I'm honest) to write back anything legible haha...

 

I agree, of course skating goes a long way in the defensive zone, but like you said maybe Bouchard improves his skating and then he's a clear cut favourite. Or maybe he's actually a better skater than he's showing but he's playing heavy, hard minutes so he's trying to be as conservative as he possibly can. I honestly don't think skating is a huge deal anymore because coaches are so good these days that they will hone in on the player's weak point and improve their skating.

 

Defensively I prefer Dobson between the 2 for the very reason you mentioned, as well as he seems to always have a good active stick to disrupt plays while somehow always being in the right position. And he is a known commodity in that regard.

 

I believe Hughes will be gone by the time we pick, so I think it'll be between Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson. Who would be your pick? You're a knowledgeable poster on these boards and I value your opinion so that's why I'm asking in case your wondering

thanks, but I'm not sure my opinion is worth much tbh - I just haven't seen enough of the three of them to where I'd be comfortable making the call.

my first take was to really want Boqvist - and the only thing that has made me second guess that is the concussion history.  He's so dynamic - great mobility, great shot, great vision, so poised and he has a body language imo that is akin to Pettersson - sheer confidence.  If he hadn't suffered those concussions, I'm probably more certain about taking the risk on his upside - as I think he's going to grow and mature, and his defensive game in the modern NHL with the right complementary partner I wouldn't anticipate being a problem.  I'm skeptical that anyone beyond 1 has a higher ceiling - and he's a very young pick in addition, as a mid Aug 2000 birthdate and yet in the running from 5 to 10 (pretty impressive).  The one other question mark I'd have relative to those other two is that while he's played against men, he's done so on larger European ice, so I suppose people could question how well his smaller frame translates on tigher NA ice.

 

I'm torn between Dobson and Bouchard - and lean towards Dobson on the strength of his skating and being a relatively solid two way player with comparable tools.  Who knows if Bouchard's offensive instincts make him the better player in the long run, but Dobson looks to have the ability to be an elite defender in addition to his shot and upside - and some of what appear to be his limitations are highly coachable imo.  At this point, I'd have a hard time deciding between Dobson and Boqvist.

In the end I'm pretty happy that these three RHD all seem to be possibllities at 7 as that pretty clearly coincides with the team's greatest needs imo.

That said, I also wouldn't be disappointed if the team considered a forward like Wahlstrom (or whomever remains available) the bpa at 7 - it's just that tough to make a call without watching them all really intensively, which I just don't have the time/access to do.   I don't remember a draft where there seemed like so much parity in so many picks - it looks like a strong and deep top 10.

Between Benning, Weisbrod, Brackett, Wall, Green et al however, I'm pretty confident that they're going to make a great call here.