Bouchard vs. Dobson - The Athletic's in-depth analysis

[filthycanuck]

On 6/15/2018 at 7:43 AM, 5Fivehole0 said:

Bouchard is the next Pouliot.
Dobson is the right pick.

Ive seen a few games (more than 5) games for both players and heres my take

 

If you want a guaranteed top 4 D-man, Hughes is the guy. His smarts, and most of all his skating will keep him in that role. Offensively, hes more than good enough to QB a power play, but he wont scaring goalies away with his shot, and defensively he might have to be sheltered in the beginning but he'll be a solid player for any team, kind of like Ryan Ellis. Anybody think a team wouldn't mind a Ryan Ellis in a top 4?

 

Upside, Dobson defintely, has all the tools, if he puts it together, could be not only a top pairing D-man, he could be one of those guys that gets nominated for a Norris sometime in his career. I just don't think hes got the IQ and skating of Hughes but if he develops, he'll surpass him definetly because the physical attributes, and skating is there. Diamond that just needs a bit of polishing.

 

Bouchard is pretty much a finished product, I see him more being a Keith Yandle type, offensively good, holds his own defensively, but he isn't gonna wow a lot of people.

 

That being said, I think all 3 guys will make it to the league, its just a matter of being patient if youre picking Dobson, but if you want someone to come in right away in year 2 I think Hughes and Bouchard are the pick. Just my 2 cents

[filthycanuck]

On 6/16/2018 at 4:41 PM, oldnews said:

Kotkaniemi as well - might he hard to pass on.   I know it's an upopular opinion, but even if Tkachuk were available at 7, I'd likely go with a different player.

Ive been watching some Brady Tkachuk videos the last few days, I know we are in need of a D-man, but could you imagine a line of Gaudette with Tkachuk and Virtanen on the wings? That line will strike fear in the Pacific Div for the next decade

[Bissurnette]

12 hours ago, stawns said:

Tkachuk is a winger, not a C.  I wouldn't necessarily say JK is a dramatic riser, more that people finally took notice.  He played an entire season of pro hockey as a 17 year old in one of the better leagues in the world and was probably his team's best cman, at both ends of the ice.  His outstanding U18 tournament merely kicked the door down for north americans.

Tkachuk is capable of playing both positions. Who knows where he'll end up in the NHL, same with Kotkaniemi. He's looking like a centerman now, but so did Pettersson in his draft year.

 

Kotkaniemi had 29 points in 57 games, and 1A in 7 games in the playoffs. Granted he is a 17 year old playing in a men's league, but I personally don't look at those numbers and go "yep - sure fire top 6 C in the NHL". He may project as one according to most scouts, but not quite on the same level as Tkachuk. Granted, again Tkachuk was playing in a lesser league, but he's playing NCAA as an 18 year old. Pretty impressive nonetheless... I will admit that I am a little bit biased because I feel that we sorely lack what Tkachuk would provide in our top 6, but I do genuinely believe that Tkachuk will prove to be a more useful player in the future.

 

I also have never seen Kotkaniemi's team in action, so I cannot make the claim you made about him being Assat's best C. I could not find average time on ice for the Finnish league from a google search so I cannot find anything that can remotely support/refute your claim. What are you basing your claim off of?

 

I'm not saying Kotkaniemi is a bad pick, I'm just saying I think with our #7 pick I think we should go in a different direction. That said, I think the scouting department has done a great job since JB has been leading this ship, so I will be happy with whoever they take, even as Kotkaniemi. I'm going based on google searches and highlights, so I only have so much information at my fingertips.

[komodo0921]

On 2018-06-15 at 8:10 AM, Alflives said:

I’m in agreement with you.  I heard a Montreal reporter, on the radio, saying the Habs (if they can’t trade down a couple spots) might grab that Kotkaniemi kid.  He also said Dobson has climbed very high.  

This top ten could be a lot of fun to watch.

 

Totally agree.

Other than Dahlin and Svechnikov at one and two respectively, the rest of the top ten looks to be a crapshoot.

[Silky mitts]

6 minutes ago, komodo0921 said:

Totally agree.

Other than Dahlin and Svechnikov at one and two respectively, the rest of the top ten looks to be a crapshoot.

I also feel zadina is a top four lock , no way he falls 

[stawns]

3 hours ago, Vanuckles said:

Tkachuk is capable of playing both positions. Who knows where he'll end up in the NHL, same with Kotkaniemi. He's looking like a centerman now, but so did Pettersson in his draft year.

 

Kotkaniemi had 29 points in 57 games, and 1A in 7 games in the playoffs. Granted he is a 17 year old playing in a men's league, but I personally don't look at those numbers and go "yep - sure fire top 6 C in the NHL". He may project as one according to most scouts, but not quite on the same level as Tkachuk. Granted, again Tkachuk was playing in a lesser league, but he's playing NCAA as an 18 year old. Pretty impressive nonetheless... I will admit that I am a little bit biased because I feel that we sorely lack what Tkachuk would provide in our top 6, but I do genuinely believe that Tkachuk will prove to be a more useful player in the future.

 

I also have never seen Kotkaniemi's team in action, so I cannot make the claim you made about him being Assat's best C. I could not find average time on ice for the Finnish league from a google search so I cannot find anything that can remotely support/refute your claim. What are you basing your claim off of?

 

I'm not saying Kotkaniemi is a bad pick, I'm just saying I think with our #7 pick I think we should go in a different direction. That said, I think the scouting department has done a great job since JB has been leading this ship, so I will be happy with whoever they take, even as Kotkaniemi. I'm going based on google searches and highlights, so I only have so much information at my fingertips.

Tkachuk has played C, but is not, currently, a C at the NCAA level.  It is highly unlikely that he plays C at the pro level.  His offensive numbers were low, though he was a freshman........I would still expect a top 5 pick to put up better numbers.  Don't get me wrong, I like his intangibles, but I'd pick someone with a more rounded game.

 

JK was around the 50% mark for faceoffs, was his team's top pk cman, as well as getting significant pp time as well.  He's a playmaker, not a sniper, so he makes the players around him better.  He is outstanding in all three zones.

[Bruce Boudreau]

Its looking more and more likely that Bouchard will indeed be the pick if available at #7.

 

I'm not too excited about Bouchard.

 

Yeah he is a good player a solid top 4 with some hopefully slightly improved skating.

 

I don't see a John Carlson though which is his popular current NHL comparable. He is not physical and his play doesn't really jump out at you.

 

Yeah he put up good numbers but his offence is overrated a little imo and defensively he is not a big physical shutdown guy.

 

If teams truly believe that Dobson is the next Pieterangelo or Seth Jones he will go top 5.

 

Bouchard looks closer to maxed out while Dobson seems to have more long range potential which should make him go higher.

 

Benning loves guys who can rip a biscuit. So I'm hoping that he secretly is using this d man talk throw teams off to the real prize which is Oliver Wahlstrom.

[CanuckleHorse]

How far off these two is this young fella?

 

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Chip Kelly said:

Its looking more and more likely that Bouchard will indeed be the pick if available at #7.

 

I'm not too excited about Bouchard.

 

Yeah he is a good player a solid top 4 with some hopefully slightly improved skating.

 

I don't see a John Carlson though which is his popular current NHL comparable. He is not physical and his play doesn't really jump out at you.

 

Yeah he put up good numbers but his offence is overrated a little imo and defensively he is not a big physical shutdown guy.

 

If teams truly believe that Dobson is the next Pieterangelo or Seth Jones he will go top 5.

 

Bouchard looks closer to maxed out while Dobson seems to have more long range potential which should make him go higher.

 

Benning loves guys who can rip a biscuit. So I'm hoping that he secretly is using this d man talk throw teams off to the real prize which is Oliver Wahlstrom.

I haven't seen anything special from Dobson.  He would be the last of the top dmen for me

[CanucksJay]

16 minutes ago, stawns said:

I haven't seen anything special from Dobson.  He would be the last of the top dmen for me

Yeah I havent either.

I watched one memorial cup game and he was on the ice multiple times where the opposition had grade A scoring chances.

I understand it's a team sport but I would think a top 5 draft pick would influence the play on his own end and not be subjected to being out there while his team came dangerously vulnerable to letting in goals.

Is that having too high of expectations for a single player?

 

All I know is that I haven't seen any of these guys play enough to have good judgment. Thank God there are pro scouts and Benning knows what he's doing.

 

So either way, I'm happy with whoever Benning picks because I definitely don't know any better.

[oldnews]

On 6/17/2018 at 6:42 AM, Russ said:

I think you said pretty much what I think.  I want Boqvist but 2 concussions before even being drafted, many that could be scary.  He might end up never getting another concussion for the rest of his life but each next concussion is just that much more worse and takes longer to heal unfortunately. Thats the only reason I don't want the Canucks to draft him, he possibly could be the 2nd best D out of the draft but if your investing in 10+ years in him on your team, how high does that concussion problems rank then?

that's about it in a nutshell.  it's really unfortunate because it's not really 'fair' to the player, and as you say, it could amount to nothing and a real missed opportunity in the long run if he does turn out to be one of the most dynamic NHLers in the draft - but how much risk is an organization willing to take relative to the other players in the range of the 7 spot? 

once you get to the point where the comparables are taken he becomes a relative no-brainer imo, but I could see this concern being enough to motivate the franchise to go with a player like Dobson instead,  That said though, if they did decide to take the risk on him, it would be hard to argue with - he appears that talented.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, oldnews said:

that's about it in a nutshell.  it's really unfortunate because it's not really 'fair' to the player, and as you say, it could amount to nothing and a real missed opportunity in the long run if he does turn out to be one of the most dynamic NHLers in the draft - but how much risk is an organization willing to take relative to the other players in the range of the 7 spot? 

once you get to the point where the comparables are taken he becomes a relative no-brainer imo, but I could see this concern being enough to motivate the franchise to go with a player like Dobson instead,  That said though, if they did decide to take the risk on him, it would be hard to argue with - he appears that talented.

Tanev + Nilsson + #7 to the Islanders for #11 and #12?

Then we take Boqvist with one of those picks?  Maybe get that Veleno kid with the other?

[oldnews]

14 hours ago, filthycanuck said:

Ive been watching some Brady Tkachuk videos the last few days, I know we are in need of a D-man, but could you imagine a line of Gaudette with Tkachuk and Virtanen on the wings? That line will strike fear in the Pacific Div for the next decade

I might imagine it as Tkachuk Horvat Virtanen - and yeah, that's a heavy, mobile two way line to try to deal with - but I'm just not sold on the idea of Tkachuk will be the BPA at 7.

His brother is a good player as well - not a 'bad' pick at 6, but would I take him over Keller, or Sergachev?   For me there are two things - first being that I'm skeptical that he'll be the best player in due course, and I also look at LW as the least scarce assets in the NHL - that also plays in imo, whereas I think it is a more difficult task to fill out those center and top 4 D positions from within.

[oldnews]

9 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Tanev + Nilsson + #7 to the Islanders for #11 and #12?

Then we take Boqvist with one of those picks?  Maybe get that Veleno kid with the other?

I'm doubtful that Boqvist makes it to 11.

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I'm doubtful that Boqvist makes it to 11.

Then we should take Boqvist with 7, if he’s there.  We need to swing for the fences, and get us a franchise Dman.  Do you see that type of ceiling in Dobson or Bouchard?  I don’t.  

[oldnews]

8 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Then we should take Boqvist with 7, if he’s there.  We need to swing for the fences, and get us a franchise Dman.  Do you see that type of ceiling in Dobson or Bouchard?  I don’t.  

It's so hard to say with 'ceilings'.  I agree that Boqvist looks like a sky's-the-limit type of O/PMD, but when you talk about 'franchise' defenseman, then I look at that as less isolated upside and an all situations type of D - a guy that plays huge minutes, both special teams - imo a Norris candidate type D ought to be a prototypical 'two way' D - and in that sense, if I'm looking at both ends of the ice, perhaps Dobson does have the highest cumulative ceiling?

[filthycanuck]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Then we should take Boqvist with 7, if he’s there.  We need to swing for the fences, and get us a franchise Dman.  Do you see that type of ceiling in Dobson or Bouchard?  I don’t.  

I disagree, Boqvuist probably has the least chance of being a franchise D-man compared to Dobson or Bouchard. Bovquist, the kid is an absolute wiz offensively, great shot, can pretty much unleash that bad boy anywhere blue line in, but defensively is a bit worrysome and someone brought up the concussions, that is a HUGE strike on him. He may pan out, may not but hes a less safer pick than most of the D-men around where hes ranked. If we are swinging for the fences,my gosh if Ryan Merkley gets his head straight, he could IMO even surpass Dahlin offensively . I saw 2 games and the kid was absolutely electric in the offensive zone, you can't tear your eyes of him the way he plays, just plays with just a reckless abandon its nuts.

[Bissurnette]

19 hours ago, stawns said:

Tkachuk has played C, but is not, currently, a C at the NCAA level.  It is highly unlikely that he plays C at the pro level.  His offensive numbers were low, though he was a freshman........I would still expect a top 5 pick to put up better numbers.  Don't get me wrong, I like his intangibles, but I'd pick someone with a more rounded game.

 

JK was around the 50% mark for faceoffs, was his team's top pk cman, as well as getting significant pp time as well.  He's a playmaker, not a sniper, so he makes the players around him better.  He is outstanding in all three zones.

I know he's playing the wing at NCAA. I'm just saying he has been capable of playing C, so while it is likely that he remains a winger in the NHL, he could also play C eventually in the NHL. His numbers were looking much better than Kotkaniemi. Again both are reaching up in their respective leagues for sure, although I'd definitely give Kotkaniemi the advantage in that regard.

 

Kotka's scouting report says he's both a playmaker and a shooter so that's a plus. Again, not saying he's a bad pick in the top 10, I'm just a little more wary about him for the reasons I outlined above, and I would prefer Tkachuk between the 2.

 

That said, I'd like to not continue to sidetrack this thread and keep it between Dobson and Bouchard. We might just have to agree that we prefer different players between Tkachuk and Kotka.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

On 6/18/2018 at 10:22 AM, Silky mitts said:

I also feel zadina is a top four lock , no way he falls 

Imho, if Zadina and Hughes were in last year's draft, either would have been in contention to be the top pick. I feel that the main knock on Zadina is that he's not a C, but in the games I've seen of him, he can do it all on O (playmaking, scoring, creating something out of nothing) and he was very solid on D. Some scouts seem to be very high on Hughes and think that he is better than Cale Makar (who I personally would be happy to give up this year's number 7 for).

[Vinny in Vancouver]

On 6/18/2018 at 4:43 PM, Alflives said:

Then we should take Boqvist with 7, if he’s there.  We need to swing for the fences, and get us a franchise Dman.  Do you see that type of ceiling in Dobson or Bouchard?  I don’t.  

There are many flavours of a franchise D-man: Karlsson, Subban, Doughty, Burns, Pronger, Lidstrom, etc. are all different. Boqvist reminds a lot of Karlsson, but one can argue that Noah Dobson who is still young could grow into one of those bigger D-men. He already has very good edge work, size, hockey IQ, leadership ability, playmaking, great stick work and an underrated shot. Last year, he was assigned Pierre Luc Dubois during the playoffs and pretty much shut him down. This year, he really improved.