(DISCUSSION) Bold Predictions...or Wishful Thinking for 2018-2019

[mikeyman109]

On 7/7/2018 at 8:48 AM, janisahockeynut said:

Back to the original Post

 

I would love for this to be true

 

My only hope is that CDC and Canuck fans in general remember that the new prospects will have ups and downs and will have growing pains

as with all young players put into a higher league where there are higher expectations

 

My fear, is that the fans forget these are first and second year players and put their own expectations over the players true reality, where there 

is a learning curve. 

 

(This was last exhibited after Gaudette played the last 5 games of the year, and was deemed a bum by some posters.)

 

This will take time in most cases and there will  be failures, as well as successes...….

 

Personally, I have no team expectations this year, and only hope the "talent": we have amassed, develops to their ceilings, over the next few seasons.

 

If we get that, we will all be very happy....but don't expect it all to happen as we have written it! There most likely will be bumps!

The expectations most likely will be very high for the likes of Petterson this year and whatever year Hughes plays. The reality is these two young players will have to learn to adjust to the league, travel, city and they will have ups and downs along the way.I think we are still a few years away from being able to put expectations on any of the young players. Boeser may come in and not miss a beat or he might have a bad sophomore year like a lot of players do. That could happen. Petterson could come in and struggle to have the success he has had. As the re build continues we will see some improvements in some areas and declines in others. The players JB has drafted  are starting to become players that will play. We may end up a lottery pick team again this year but the prospects are there. As long as no one panics if they have a tough start and make bad trades ala Neely

[189lb enforcers?]

4 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

absolutely agree with bolded on the D

 

Hughes Juolevi and Woo are a good start to re build the D but they may not make an impact this year.

 

EP doesn't necessarily need to do anything this year. I think everyone agrees he is capable and hopefully comes in and has a strong rookie campaign. But if he doesn't what is the effect? I don't expect the team to make the playoffs this year. What if he just comes in and puts up 40 points? Is there panic in the streets?

I don’t really want EP playing just yet, so a strong showing at the end of the year, like Bure, would be great.

Yes, 40 points in 50 games or something sounds dreamy. 

[oldnews]

On 7/7/2018 at 8:48 AM, janisahockeynut said:

My fear, is that the fans forget these are first and second year players and put their own expectations over the players true reality, where there 

is a learning curve. 

 

(This was last exhibited after Gaudette played the last 5 games of the year, and was deemed a bum by some posters.)

 

This is what impatient, small-sample google scouts do.  Lots of noise to this effect that people just need to ignore.

 

Perhaps this is in part because of the hangover from  the smarmy crew ripping that pick - very negative responses when the Canucks drafted Gaudette?

 

 

Gaudette played 12 minutes x 5 games, his first 5 in the NHL, 38% ozone starts, 47.5% corsi, + 2 - not a goal scored gainst while he was on the ice in those five games.....

 

But didn't score..... the only metric in the minds of many casual, highlight reel 'fans'. 

 

He was actually quite active in the scoring areas but did not convert.  No real reason to judge a young player negatively.

I think he looked great actually - but it was a very small sample - in which he gave a very strong impression and reason for optimism that his game will translate.

 

If I'm gambling on young players that make the roster this year, I would put some money on Gaudette.

If Sutter is in fact going to be utilized to shelter a couple young forwards in a weighted o-role - I think a Pettersson Sutter Gaudette line could be damn fun to watch - but Gaudette could also probably handle a winger role on a 3rd line/shutdown line, like the way Green utilized Virtanen a fair amount in developing him the past few years. 

 

Gaudette is probably the guy with the biggest range of versatility and upside among the new group/wave of young forwards - my guess would be that he might be one of the guys with an inside edge.

 

Leipsic/Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Pettersson/Leipsic/Goldbin Sutter Gaudette/Virtanen

Eriksson Schaller Granlund/Gaudette/Virtanen

Roussel Beagle Gaunce/Motte

 

The only guy I can't find a prospective spot for is Gagner.

[TheGuardian_]

Leipsic - 5'9+"/Baertschi - 5'10+", Horvat - 6', Boeser - 6'+"

Pettersson - 6'2+"/Leipsic/Goldbin - 5'11" Sutter - 6'3" Gaudette - 6'+"/Virtanen - 6'1"

Eriksson - 6'2" Schaller - 6'2" Granlund - 6'/Gaudette/Virtanen

Roussel - 5'10+" Beagle - 6'3" Gaunce - 6'2"/Motte - 5'9+"

Average height 71.7 " - 5'11.2", league average last year - 73.1" - 6'1.1"

 

Might not seem like much but this the average, the Nucks are 31rst the smallest, the largest average is Winnipeg at 74.1" - 6'2.1"

 

Defence is even worse;

Average - 6'1" if Hutton - 74", comes back, if Hughes 5'9+" makes it and not Hutton then 72.4", 6' 0.5", again the smallest in the league if Guddy - 77" gets hurt again or Tanev - 74" and Edler - 75" then much smaller.

 

They always round up for height and weight ie; 5'9.5" becomes 5'10", 6'.25" becomes 6'1" so when players are listed at 5'10" they could be as much as 3/4 of an inch shorter. They never round down.

League average often uses actual real numbers but will count all roster players not just the one's playing, so some teams can inflate size by calling up players and putting them on medical rehab, in the press box, giving them a few minutes of ice time.

 

This may/could be the smallest team iced in the last 30 years in the NHL, not counting the 2 goalies - each at 78" the tallest players on the team.

 

The last 5 cup champs averaged - LA - 73.8", Chicago - 73.2", Pittsburgh - 73.2", Pittsburgh - 73.1", Washington - 74.4", every team is over the league average height, most in the top 3rd of the league.

 

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Leipsic - 5'9+"/Baertschi - 5'10+", Horvat - 6', Boeser - 6'+"

Pettersson - 6'2+"/Leipsic/Goldbin - 5'11" Sutter - 6'3" Gaudette - 6'+"/Virtanen - 6'1"

Eriksson - 6'2" Schaller - 6'2" Granlund - 6'/Gaudette/Virtanen

Roussel - 5'10+" Beagle - 6'3" Gaunce - 6'2"/Motte - 5'9+"

Average height 71.7 " - 5'11.2", league average last year - 73.1" - 6'1.1"

 

Might not seem like much but this the average, the Nucks are 31rst the smallest, the largest average is Winnipeg at 74.1" - 6'2.1"

 

Defence is even worse;

Average - 6'1" if Hutton - 74", comes back, if Hughes 5'9+" makes it and not Hutton then 72.4", 6' 0.5", again the smallest in the league if Guddy - 77" gets hurt again or Tanev - 74" and Edler - 75" then much smaller.

 

They always round up for height and weight ie; 5'9.5" becomes 5'10", 6'.25" becomes 6'1" so when players are listed at 5'10" they could be as much as 3/4 of an inch shorter. They never round down.

League average often uses actual real numbers but will count all roster players not just the one's playing, so some teams can inflate size by calling up players and putting them on medical rehab, in the press box, giving them a few minutes of ice time.

 

This may/could be the smallest team iced in the last 30 years in the NHL, not counting the 2 goalies - each at 78" the tallest players on the team.

 

The last 5 cup champs averaged - LA - 73.8", Chicago - 73.2", Pittsburgh - 73.2", Pittsburgh - 73.1", Washington - 74.4", every team is over the league average height, most in the top 3rd of the league.

 

Uh, your stats are incorrect.   No idea where your stats are coming from but the official NHL tracker has the following.    Note some of the "shortest" teams are also some of the more successful but, alas, Vancouver is neither shortest nor tallest.

 

[Rob_Zepp]

FEARLESS PREDICTION

 

If the Canucks are leading the Leafs, Oilers and Flames in the Standings by Christmas, the CDC trolls will spontaneously combust.     

 

[TheGuardian_]

1 minute ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Uh, your stats are incorrect.   No idea where your stats are coming from but the official NHL tracker has the following.    Note some of the "shortest" teams are also some of the more successful but, alas, Vancouver is neither shortest nor tallest.

Yes it is difficult and very time consuming to get accurate up to date numbers for the players actually playing.

That chart is inaccurate, premature and counts all roster players playing or not and both 6'6" goalies and while there are many teams with big goalies few have two at 6'6". 6'5" Guddy and 6'2" Tanev were both counted but only played a little over half a season.

 

If the Canucks play 16 players under the league average, then that is the most and makes them the smallest team.

 

Even using the chart the Nucks have a projected 18 players under the league average not counting Hughes or other prospects.

15 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

FEARLESS PREDICTION

 

If the Canucks are leading the Leafs, Oilers and Flames in the Standings by Christmas, the CDC trolls will spontaneously combust.     

 

don't laugh over the last 25 years or so, many teams finishing near the bottom of the league started out winning lots of games early and in the hunt until the all star break.

 

 

[EdgarM]

I really believe the new acquisitions and the retirement of the Twins will push some of our middle of the roaders such as Baertchi, Granlund and Sutter to produce more offensively.

This will finally be a rebound year for Ericksson!

Demko and the new coaching staff will push the goalies to be better along with a healthier D core.

Jake will show why he was drafted so high and will surprise the naysayers and have a break out year.

I think the prospects will make intermittent appearances in the line up to facilitate injuries but will stay in Utica except for Demko. He plays his way on to the team. Pettersen maybe sticks if he can handle the rougher play of the NHL. 

Unfortunately Gagner, Stecher and Hutton prove they have reached a stalemate and get moved at the trade deadline.

The team is in contention for the playoffs and sneaks in as long as there are no significant injuries. 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

4 hours ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Yes it is difficult and very time consuming to get accurate up to date numbers for the players actually playing.

That chart is inaccurate, premature and counts all roster players playing or not and both 6'6" goalies and while there are many teams with big goalies few have two at 6'6". 6'5" Guddy and 6'2" Tanev were both counted but only played a little over half a season.

 

If the Canucks play 16 players under the league average, then that is the most and makes them the smallest team.

 

 

 

You can make that silly argument for any team in the league and pick/choose and exclude players.   Until the NHL releases their updated numbers, those are the most accurate and have Vancouver middle of the pack.   Period.

 

Your projection of the team probably has very little to do with the team that hits the ice.    Further, you have not a clue what other teams will ice starting October so you are simply trying to make another in a long string of negative comments about a team you claim to like to follow.   The team went out and significantly added toughness with their signings and you complain yet again.    Well done.   

[apollo]

On 06/07/2018 at 11:04 PM, bigbadcanucks said:

While my wife is out for her monthly girl's night out and I wait for the call to come and pick her and her drunken BFFs up from wherever they are (yah...this is what my life has become), I'm left contemplating what might be for this coming season for the Canucks.

 

Just curious what everyone's bold predictions (or wishful thinking) for the upcoming season are? 

 

Here are some of mine (caveat: lines are heavily blurred between what's real and what's fantasy):

 

1) Pettersson does what Matt Barzal did this past season and breaks 80 point barrier, en route to Calder Cup season (as a centerman);

2) Boeser scores 40 goals and quells concerns about his back and the myth of the sophomore jinx;

3) Gaunce makes the team out of camp and has a break out season and becomes Canucks permanent third line centerman, forcing Sutter to RW, where he re-discovers his 21-goal self of 2009-2010 and 2014-2015 (that's a two-for-one);

4) Hughes signs ELC and becomes the re-incarnation of Phil Housley/Brian Leetch;

5) Demko makes the team out of camp and becomes the undisputed number 1 goalie by Christmas;

6) Roussel -- Beagle -- Schaller form the best (and most expensive) fourth line in the NHL;

7) Pettersson, Dahlen and Eriksson form the Swedish Connection, resulting in Eriksson have a renaissance season;

8) Virtanen finally puts everything together and turns into the second coming of Cam Neely, Rick Vaive, Curt Fraser, Dirk Graham and all the other power forwards that the Canucks gave up too early on;

9) Juolevi makes the club, and plays with such poise that he makes Del Zotto and Hutton redundant, and removes any sort of urgency to re-sign Edler, forcing him to waive his no-trade clause at TDL to go play in Tampa Bay with his buddies Hedman and Karlsson;

10) Del Zotto, Gagner, Granlund and Hutton are moved out for a mittful of draft picks giving the Canucks a gazillion picks in the fourth and fifth rounds next draft in Vancouver where we know Benning, Weisbrod, Brackett rule the universe;

11) Canucks make the playoffs, lose in the first round in seven games, and gain invaluable experience.  Everyone touts "losing this one in seven hurts, but it didn't kill us, so it will make us stronger".

 

Would love to hear what everyone's predictions/hopes for the coming season are...

I love it. But it doesn't make sense IF 1-9 happen for the team to get kicked out in first round. If those things happen the team will win the cup... Virt becoming Neely, Elias Calder, brock 40+... Demko #1... 

 

I'm drooling over your predictions 

[TheGuardian_]

16 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

You can make that silly argument for any team in the league and pick/choose and exclude players.   Until the NHL releases their updated numbers, those are the most accurate and have Vancouver middle of the pack.   Period.

 

Your projection of the team probably has very little to do with the team that hits the ice.    Further, you have not a clue what other teams will ice starting October so you are simply trying to make another in a long string of negative comments about a team you claim to like to follow.   The team went out and significantly added toughness with their signings and you complain yet again.    Well done.   

I agree about the precise accuracy.

Using the recent acquisitions, newly signed contracts and not counting this draft.

I looked at previous averages over 4 years. I did try for precise accuracy of Canuck most probable NHL players, but because it was so hard for an entire league I ended up just counting the number of Canuck players under the league average's of the last 4 years of 6'1.3". 

[Rob_Zepp]

12 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

I agree about the precise accuracy.

Using the recent acquisitions, newly signed contracts and not counting this draft.

I looked at previous averages over 4 years. I did try for precise accuracy of Canuck most probable NHL players, but because it was so hard for an entire league I ended up just counting the number of Canuck players under the league average's of the last 4 years of 6'1.3". 

Let's see what the opening day 23 man roster is as that is where the league comparison comes from.    Plus, there is more to size/toughness than height.   Many of the toughest guys in the history of the game are your 5'10 to 6' 200 lb tank players versus the 6'5" stork like guys who rarely use their actual size for more than wooing women.

[TheGuardian_]

7 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Let's see what the opening day 23 man roster is as that is where the league comparison comes from.    Plus, there is more to size/toughness than height.   Many of the toughest guys in the history of the game are your 5'10 to 6' 200 lb tank players versus the 6'5" stork like guys who rarely use their actual size for more than wooing women.

Can't measure the size of the heart.

 

Not the size of the dog in the fight, it is the size of the fight in the dog.

[Rob_Zepp]

16 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Can't measure the size of the heart.

 

Not the size of the dog in the fight, it is the size of the fight in the dog.

LOL.   While true, I will still take a 6'5 280 lb best of a man over a Hughes sized dude in a fight any day.   

[Provost]

I have had a

Dahlen-Petterson-Eriksson

line pencilled into my mock roster for a while.  It would be an interesting test.  It gives Eriksson a clear role with consistent line mates.  He likely complements them in being a net front/garbage goal guy who is excellent defensively.  Could smooth out some of their rough patches as rookies.

 

I suspect Green isn’t going to start off with an experiment like that and would be forced to by injuries.  As much as they talk about having a young team, they also seem like they still want to err on the side of caution and not have any inkling of gifting time to kids.  Veterans grinders will still get more ice time than they should in all probability.

[JamesB]

On 7/6/2018 at 11:04 PM, bigbadcanucks said:

While my wife is out for her monthly girl's night out and I wait for the call to come and pick her and her drunken BFFs up from wherever they are (yah...this is what my life has become), I'm left contemplating what might be for this coming season for the Canucks.

 

Just curious what everyone's bold predictions (or wishful thinking) for the upcoming season are? 

 

Here are some of mine (caveat: lines are heavily blurred between what's real and what's fantasy):

 

1) Pettersson does what Matt Barzal did this past season and breaks 80 point barrier, en route to Calder Cup season (as a centerman);

2) Boeser scores 40 goals and quells concerns about his back and the myth of the sophomore jinx;

3) Gaunce makes the team out of camp and has a break out season and becomes Canucks permanent third line centerman, forcing Sutter to RW, where he re-discovers his 21-goal self of 2009-2010 and 2014-2015 (that's a two-for-one);

4) Hughes signs ELC and becomes the re-incarnation of Phil Housley/Brian Leetch;

5) Demko makes the team out of camp and becomes the undisputed number 1 goalie by Christmas;

6) Roussel -- Beagle -- Schaller form the best (and most expensive) fourth line in the NHL;

7) Pettersson, Dahlen and Eriksson form the Swedish Connection, resulting in Eriksson have a renaissance season;

8) Virtanen finally puts everything together and turns into the second coming of Cam Neely, Rick Vaive, Curt Fraser, Dirk Graham and all the other power forwards that the Canucks gave up too early on;

9) Juolevi makes the club, and plays with such poise that he makes Del Zotto and Hutton redundant, and removes any sort of urgency to re-sign Edler, forcing him to waive his no-trade clause at TDL to go play in Tampa Bay with his buddies Hedman and Karlsson;

10) Del Zotto, Gagner, Granlund and Hutton are moved out for a mittful of draft picks giving the Canucks a gazillion picks in the fourth and fifth rounds next draft in Vancouver where we know Benning, Weisbrod, Brackett rule the universe;

11) Canucks make the playoffs, lose in the first round in seven games, and gain invaluable experience.  Everyone touts "losing this one in seven hurts, but it didn't kill us, so it will make us stronger".

 

Would love to hear what everyone's predictions/hopes for the coming season are...

Very entertaining OP. Unlike some others, I am taking this mostly as fantasy/amusement rather than actual predictions. But I would focus on three items have a shot at coming true.

 

1. Based on career trajectory so far, Pettersson has to have a shot at the Calder. He is not the favorite going into the season, but he has to be in the top 5, maybe top 3. He won't get 80 pts, but he might be playing center before the season is too far along.

 

2. It is very tough to reach 40 goals, Last year only 8 guys did it and only one guy got over 45. But Boeser does have legitimate shot. 

 

3. Nothing else on the list is more than a longshot. But Juolevi certainly could be on the team by the end of the season. MDZ and Hutton might go, but Edler is unlikely to waive his NTC.

[coastal.view]

pettersson makes the team and plays really well

hughes makes the team and plays really well

 

both are strong in the running for the calder

and split votes as voters cannot really decide who was better

and another team's rookie ends up winning the calder

 

 

[Whale Tail]

Our rookies kick butt and go for some Canuck records. 

The team’s speed is improved and they play high scoring entertaining hockey. We still lose some games but it’s the kind of games you are not mad at as it was just such an awesome game. 

 

Win 2019 draft lottery finally. Select brother H and start a new bro dynasty in Van. 

[IBatch]

On 2018-07-07 at 11:07 AM, kingofsurrey said:

Winning in the ahl is done with old ahl lifers not nhl young prospects

 

canucks draft 5th overall next yr 

 

the rebuild continues 

Arguably the most dominating AHL team ever top three players  went on to play in TB,  they don't usually do it all on their own... but I get where your coming from, and for many of the vets this is the is the best they can hope.    

[IBatch]

On 2018-07-11 at 11:26 PM, JamesB said:

Very entertaining OP. Unlike some others, I am taking this mostly as fantasy/amusement rather than actual predictions. But I would focus on three items have a shot at coming true.

 

1. Based on career trajectory so far, Pettersson has to have a shot at the Calder. He is not the favorite going into the season, but he has to be in the top 5, maybe top 3. He won't get 80 pts, but he might be playing center before the season is too far along.

 

2. It is very tough to reach 40 goals, Last year only 8 guys did it and only one guy got over 45. But Boeser does have legitimate shot. 

 

3. Nothing else on the list is more than a longshot. But Juolevi certainly could be on the team by the end of the season. MDZ and Hutton might go, but Edler is unlikely to waive his NTC.

Before the draft Pettersson was picked with Casey M. as two guys at the head of the pack for the Calder, call it a tie so 1-2, and the draft changed nothing, Dahlin will play but he wasn't considered a candidate by at least one source, THN.  I just hope he gets some decent guys to play with.