Recent Canuck Draft Picks - Early Season Results

[Rob_Zepp]

21 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

all top ten picks should locks and future corner stones within draft +3 years.

Where is this written in stone????   There are so many top 10 picks in NHL history that have come to be cornerstones for franchises that didn't become "stars" or "locks" by D+3.    Particularly for larger forwards (power), dmen and goalies.   I cannot understand this fixation with a timeframe that isn't supported by anything other than impatience.   EVERY player develops at a different rate.   Further, some of those early "stars" that come out of the gate flying have their career best years out of that gate and plateau and get passed by those who develop over a longer period.   Like many wines, cheeses and some meals, those that develop over time become more valuable and far more pleasing when they emerge.   

[TheGuardian_]

11 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Where is this written in stone????   There are so many top 10 picks in NHL history that have come to be cornerstones for franchises that didn't become "stars" or "locks" by D+3.    Particularly for larger forwards (power), dmen and goalies.   I cannot understand this fixation with a timeframe that isn't supported by anything other than impatience.   EVERY player develops at a different rate.   Further, some of those early "stars" that come out of the gate flying have their career best years out of that gate and plateau and get passed by those who develop over a longer period.   Like many wines, cheeses and some meals, those that develop over time become more valuable and far more pleasing when they emerge.   

2003 - 2016, 14 drafts, 21 out of 140 top ten picks could be said to be let downs. Out of the 140 only 1 has not played a single game, 129 played at least 10% of the average number of games for that draft class, a few passed away, a couple moved back to Europe, goalies.

 

I don't have a stats generator so compiling all numbers can have some errors, I try to catch them all.

Canuck top ten picks in that time frame;

#10 Luc Bourdon - 36 games - accident

#10 Cody Hodgson - 328 games -  malignant hyperthermia, a genetic disorder

#9   Bo Horvat - 310 games - career average toi - 16:53 - cornerstone player

#6   Jake Virtanen - 155 games - career average toi - 11:49 - still some hope

#5   OJ

 

If/when OJ and Hughes crack the line up the team will have the most top ten picks playing in it's history.

Benning may end up holding the Vancouver record as the GM with the most top 10 picks, wrong, already does.

 

I am pretty sure most posters and fans will/would acknowledge that this team has been in decline since 2013 maybe even the 2012 playoffs. The team has won 3 playoff games since 2012.

 

Seven/eight years, Benning has been in charge four/five of those years, the team has only 6 drafted players on it since 2012 including Gaudette, two of which were inherited.

 

While I understand the concept of a late bloomer how is it explained that out of 35 draft picks only 7 can/did play in the NHL and only 4 on this team? That is a huge number of late bloomers, 28 that develop slower? This fixation is all about time gone by, Benning was supposed to be an uber genius in player evaluation.

Of course now the best plan is to try for two more top draft picks, that would fill out the team for a decade or more and with some judicial trading of aging assets maintain a dominant team much longer. The added assets could be used for position specific trading even if overpaying there should be ample assets available. 

[JM_]

14 hours ago, lmm said:

who?

wander over to the Juolevi thread, you'll find them. 

[Rob_Zepp]

2 hours ago, TheGuardian_ said:

2003 - 2016, 14 drafts, 21 out of 140 top ten picks could be said to be let downs. Out of the 140 only 1 has not played a single game, 129 played at least 10% of the average number of games for that draft class, a few passed away, a couple moved back to Europe, goalies.

 

I don't have a stats generator so compiling all numbers can have some errors, I try to catch them all.

Canuck top ten picks in that time frame;

#10 Luc Bourdon - 36 games - accident

#10 Cody Hodgson - 328 games -  malignant hyperthermia, a genetic disorder

#9   Bo Horvat - 310 games - career average toi - 16:53 - cornerstone player

#6   Jake Virtanen - 155 games - career average toi - 11:49 - still some hope

#5   OJ

 

If/when OJ and Hughes crack the line up the team will have the most top ten picks playing in it's history.

Benning may end up holding the Vancouver record as the GM with the most top 10 picks, wrong, already does.

 

I am pretty sure most posters and fans will/would acknowledge that this team has been in decline since 2013 maybe even the 2012 playoffs. The team has won 3 playoff games since 2012.

 

Seven/eight years, Benning has been in charge four/five of those years, the team has only 6 drafted players on it since 2012 including Gaudette, two of which were inherited.

 

While I understand the concept of a late bloomer how is it explained that out of 35 draft picks only 7 can/did play in the NHL and only 4 on this team? That is a huge number of late bloomers, 28 that develop slower? This fixation is all about time gone by, Benning was supposed to be an uber genius in player evaluation.

Of course now the best plan is to try for two more top draft picks, that would fill out the team for a decade or more and with some judicial trading of aging assets maintain a dominant team much longer. The added assets could be used for position specific trading even if overpaying there should be ample assets available. 

Uh, I was talking about 2014 to present.   Not sure how going back a decade helps that.    Your stats take an entirely different era with two different GMs into account and somehow mushed together is makes some point that Benning isn't very good.   

 

I will keep posting the factual information about the players that the Canucks have drafted under the regime.   You are more than welcome to post what you do obviously but the bringing different eras and management regimes into a thread about recent drafting is a great topic for another thread if you like.   

[Rob_Zepp]

25 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

wander over to the Juolevi thread, you'll find them. 

They have entered this there too.     

[cuporbust]

21 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Lol. That's awesome. 

[smithers joe]

2 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Lol. That's awesome. 

that's a stretch. 

[Rob_Zepp]

23 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

that's a stretch. 

we need a groan emoticon........

[TheGuardian_]

6 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

we need a groan emoticon........

[Rob_Zepp]

Just now, TheGuardian_ said:

Facepalm expresses, at least to me, frustration with the sheer level of "missing the point completely" whereas a groan is the type of thing for a "dad joke" response.   I wouldn't facepalm a dad joke.

[PhillipBlunt]

39 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

that's a stretch. 

[higgyfan]

2 hours ago, TheGuardian_ said:

2003 - 2016, 14 drafts, 21 out of 140 top ten picks could be said to be let downs. Out of the 140 only 1 has not played a single game, 129 played at least 10% of the average number of games for that draft class, a few passed away, a couple moved back to Europe, goalies.

 

I don't have a stats generator so compiling all numbers can have some errors, I try to catch them all.

Canuck top ten picks in that time frame;

#10 Luc Bourdon - 36 games - accident

#10 Cody Hodgson - 328 games -  malignant hyperthermia, a genetic disorder

#9   Bo Horvat - 310 games - career average toi - 16:53 - cornerstone player

#6   Jake Virtanen - 155 games - career average toi - 11:49 - still some hope

#5   OJ

 

If/when OJ and Hughes crack the line up the team will have the most top ten picks playing in it's history.

Benning may end up holding the Vancouver record as the GM with the most top 10 picks, wrong, already does.

 

I am pretty sure most posters and fans will/would acknowledge that this team has been in decline since 2013 maybe even the 2012 playoffs. The team has won 3 playoff games since 2012.

 

Seven/eight years, Benning has been in charge four/five of those years, the team has only 6 drafted players on it since 2012 including Gaudette, two of which were inherited.

 

While I understand the concept of a late bloomer how is it explained that out of 35 draft picks only 7 can/did play in the NHL and only 4 on this team? That is a huge number of late bloomers, 28 that develop slower? This fixation is all about time gone by, Benning was supposed to be an uber genius in player evaluation.

Of course now the best plan is to try for two more top draft picks, that would fill out the team for a decade or more and with some judicial trading of aging assets maintain a dominant team much longer. The added assets could be used for position specific trading even if overpaying there should be ample assets available. 

I find this post confusing because your focus changes half way through (and back to your usual agenda of Benning bashing), so I will only address the highlighted.

 

Seeing as we are primarily talking about Benning's  era; we will drop Gaunce, Horvat and Hutton from the list of picks that are NHL players.  I see that Benning actually has selected 7 players since 2014 that are considered NHL players; Just because a player is traded (Forsling, McCaan) or leaves the team (Tryamkin), it doesn't change the fact that the GM selected well.  The chances of a player selected beyond the 1st round diminishes quickly, so I'd say he has done quite well.

 

I think it's a stretch including the last 2 drafts, as there are very few prospects from those drafts that are actually playing. 2017 has 11 from the 1st round and only 1 beyond, while 2018 only has 5 playing.

 

2016 is probably your main concern, as a great many of the 1st rounders are all ready playing in the NHL and Juolevi isn't there yet.  At 20yrs I think it is too early to write him off and I'm sure the teams of the other prospects that are not playing in the NHL are thinking likewise.  Beyond the 1st round in 2016 there are just a smattering of prospects playing in the NHL, so it's way to early to suggest that the other player selected in that draft should have made the team already.

 

It seems to me that the only draft years we can utilize to assess JBs selections fairly, is 2014; 2015; the 1st round of 2016; the 1st round of 2017 (due to it being a top 5).

 

Using the guidelines above, JB has selected 4 pics that are currently playing on the team; 1 that has fled to Russia and 2 that have been traded.  That's 7 players from two full drafts (14&15) and 1st rounds only (16&17).  Not bad at all.

[Kevin Biestra]

On 11/5/2018 at 9:41 AM, HerrDrFunk said:

That's all very interesting but what will we ever do about Hughes being a mere 5'10"?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Housley

[TheGuardian_]

1 hour ago, higgyfan said:

I think it's a stretch including the last 2 drafts, as there are very few prospects from those drafts that are actually playing. 2017 has 11 from the 1st round and only 1 beyond, while 2018 only has 5 playing.

I didn't include the last two drafts, 2017 & 2018 at all, 2012 to 2016. 2016 has a total of 30 players play at least 1 game, 2015 has 64 players with at least one game. The point was just the amount of time it is taking Canuck prospects to develop. 

1 hour ago, higgyfan said:

Beyond the 1st round in 2016 there are just a smattering of prospects playing in the NHL

Of the 30 to get a cup of tea, most of the 1rst round is playing.

 

The jist was how long some players take to make the show, late boomers so the numbers came in as a comparison to try to determine a longtime vs average time. And the impact of 3 year AHL pro's in the NHL.

1 hour ago, higgyfan said:

That's 7 players from two full drafts (14&15) and 1st rounds only (16&17). 

I included all the Benning picks as well.

 

The time to beat up on JB for doing a bad job is past, if he continues as before then the Nucks could nab two more real good drafted players. The rebuild started when the Sedins retired so 5 years....Pettersson might change that though. Defence needs mega work.

 

Even Benning best draft year 2014, he had Canuck and Bruins scouting reports, all the players that did play in the NHL did so within 2 years of draft. 3+years now?

[Fred65]

Good article in THN, here's an excerpt, discussing how the NHL is basically made up with first round picks and the importance of first round picks

 

 

"

Spoilers aside, though, here’s a more in-depth analysis of the results. (Note: Stats through games played as of Nov. 2.)

Top 50 NHL scorers (13+ points)
1st round: 40
2nd round: 4
3rd round: 2
4th round: 1
5th round: 0
6th round: 0
7th round: 0
Undrafted: 3
Notable: If this doesn’t illustrate the importance of the first round of the NHL draft, nothing does. Entering Friday night’s games, 50 players had scored at least 13 points this season — and 40 of those 50 players were first-round picks

"

 

That's why the JV & OJ are not considered great selections ( other than by the  fans who repeat ad nausea about you have to wait and be patient )

[higgyfan]

14 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

I didn't include the last two drafts, 2017 & 2018 at all, 2012 to 2016. 2016 has a total of 30 players play at least 1 game, 2015 has 64 players with at least one game. The point was just the amount of time it is taking Canuck prospects to develop. 

Of the 30 to get a cup of tea, most of the 1rst round is playing.

I wouldn't count players that have below 7 games, as they are often guys that are sent back to whatever league they came from.  In 2015 draft I only see around 15 that are playing in the NHL (selected beyond the 1st round) and in 2016 there are 15/30 from the 1st round and 7 beyond that a currently playing in the NHL.  Those are not huge numbers, which leads me to think that there will be many more making the jump in the next 2-3 yrs.

14 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

 

The jist was how long some players take to make the show, late boomers so the numbers came in as a comparison to try to determine a longtime vs average time. And the impact of 3 year AHL pro's in the NHL.

I included all the Benning picks as well.

 

The time to beat up on JB for doing a bad job is past, if he continues as before then the Nucks could nab two more real good drafted players. The rebuild started when the Sedins retired so 5 years....Pettersson might change that though. Defence needs mega work.

I think the rebuild started (officially) the year before when Burr and Hansen were traded.  Many fans think it stared before that.  5yrs is about right for completion, but I think Pettersson may change that. 

[Phat Fingers]

18 hours ago, TheGuardian_ said:

You mistake the words "not in the NHL" for garbage, the players are what they are and it is not their fault the position drafted in or management's decision not to play them, the way management treats them or the hype management creates to sell tickets.

 

Eriksson is not a garbage player, he just isn't worth the money he is being paid, again not his fault, nobody twisted Benning/Linden's arm to give out such an outrageous contract.

 

The same with some of the prospects that are struggling, they are doing their best, if you think about the prospects and where they are and then envision they were selected by Edmonton or Toronto it is likely your opinion changes because the Canucks drafted players immediately behind them, anyone of 3 players behind them they were more successful. When Oiler picks failed the Oiler management was THE example of bad drafting, the Leafs drafting was so bad the team literally became the Maple Laffs. 5 drafts, 6 first rounders, 4 in the top ten, only 2 of six on the team and one a later pick. Hughes is not on the team and is a prospect only, not a good or bad NHLer yet. His size does make him a gamble though, his skill is evident.

 

Being good, heck even being great in the AHL for two or three years hasn't meant a whole lot. Even Keith and Weber were in the show by D+3 and they were 2nd round picks.

 

74 dmen taken in 2016, 9 in the first round, only 4 of the 9 are NHL. All selected after. Some are still in Europe albeit expectations are much lower, of the first 16 players selected three haven't played a game, OJ (7pts), Jake Bean (6pts), Michael McLeod (6pts) all starting their first AHL season.

210 prospects drafted in 2014, 135 never played a game just around 20 have played 100 games, 16 were 1rst round selections (Jake and Jared in there), 10 have 90+ points, 8 are 1rst round picks. (Jake and Jared not there).

 

All this info means is all prospects are essentially long shots but now all top ten picks should locks and future corner stones within draft +3 years.

Guards,

 

There is no set time line for these young guys to make the show or not. Jake is a prime example of a rush to judgement. 

 

Cherry picking Kieth and Weber as examples, well taking the exceptions and making them the rule is a flawed way to rationalize expectations.  

 

Top ten picks are not supposed to be locks by D+3 years.  This ignores that everyone grows and develops at different rates.  

 

But keep being you, wouldn’t expect you to ever see it differently. 

 

[HerrDrFunk]

2 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

Guards,

 

There is no set time line for these young guys to make the show or not. Jake is a prime example of a rush to judgement. 

 

Cherry picking Kieth and Weber as examples, well taking the exceptions and making them the rule is a flawed way to rationalize expectations.  

 

Top ten picks are not supposed to be locks by D+3 years.  This ignores that everyone grows and develops at different rates.  

 

But keep being you, wouldn’t expect you to ever see it differently. 

 

To be fair, last year when Pettersson was setting records in the SHL, Guardian on here asking "if he's so good, why isn't he in the NHL yet?" so the goalposts are constantly moving. 

[Chris12345]

On 05/11/2018 at 12:26 PM, Wanless said:

Crosby is 5’11” and is doing just fine. Yes I know he is also 200 pounds, but try knocking him off the puck or keeping him from knocking you off the puck

 

look at gudbranson, 6’5” 217. Pressure him and he has a hard time moving the puck, always injured

 

erik karlsson 6’0” 190, no problem playing his role

 

so Hughes is 5’10” 170. He can skate, stick handle, and is smart. He should be able to get to 180-190 and could very well grow an 1 or 2. He isn’t going to be expected to stop Crosby or kopitar 

 

 

 

I 'm on your side but if Hughes is 170 I'm Brad Pitt.

 

 

[TheGuardian_]

18 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

Guards,

 

There is no set time line for these young guys to make the show or not. Jake is a prime example of a rush to judgement. 

 

Cherry picking Kieth and Weber as examples, well taking the exceptions and making them the rule is a flawed way to rationalize expectations.  

 

Top ten picks are not supposed to be locks by D+3 years.  This ignores that everyone grows and develops at different rates.  

 

But keep being you, wouldn’t expect you to ever see it differently. 

 

Using them was for two reasons, the fact they did end up being so good, worth the wait, extreme example and they were not 1rst round dmen selections. I could have used Cam Barker and Gudbranson as examples of 1rst round #3 overall dmen that haven't/didn't live up to expectations of their drafted position.

 

Hughes might be 5'10" with his hair standing straight up or on his toes, many media people have commented upon his reported height, I think Shorthouse and Garrett mentioned that if he is 5'10" Garrett is 6', the consensus is he is 5'9+" ish. He would have a big problem moving Lucic out from the front of the net, not a fair example, Getsaf or Kesler.