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First Unit Power Play


JamesB

Reasons for Drop-off in First Unit PP Performance  

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One of the biggest problems in the recent Canuck losing streak has been the drop-off in the performance of the first unit PP. Obviously it hurts having three guys from the 1st unit injured, but the question is whether the Canucks could do something different under the circumstances. 

 

It was good see EP40 finally score a nice PP goal again against Montreal -- a one timer off a nice pass from the point (Hutton) -- one of the most important plays on the PP. I was thinking it was nice to finally see EP40 get off a one-timer instead of digging the puck out of his feet after a pass from Pouliot or Goldy. Getting a good pass from the point man to the shooter is very important on the PP and even slight delays due to off-target passes can take away scoring chances. 

 

But maybe I am being unfair to Pouliot and Goldy. What does the data say?

 

Power play performance is, in my view, on the cleanest statistical measures. On the PP you are focused on scoring, so defence is not a big issue. And on any PP your opponents are good defenders and they change up often enough that variation in quality of competition is not likely to be a statistical issue. I took a look at the numbers for goals per 60 minutes and shots per 60 minutes. (Actually, i looked at goal differential and shot differential per 60. There are not many goals against or shots against but we should take account of them.) The numbers are pretty interesting.

 

There are 13 Canucks who have played more than 25 min on the PP this year. The best on-ice net goals for per 60 minutes goes to Edler at 11.49, followed by Baertschi at 10.59.

 

That should not be a big surprise. We already know that the 1st unit PP was scoring more early in the year when those guys were playing. So, in a sense, we already know they have to be among the leaders.  (Edler, by the way, always has good PP numbers and good PK numbers -- never understand why he takes so much criticism).

 

The third place guy is a bit of  a surprise: Hutton at 8.84, followed by Horvat at 7.37. Then, Boeser and EP and Virtanen are all pretty close -- between 6 and 7.

 

Who is worst on the team? This is not a surprise. It is Pouliot at an abysmal net goals for of 1.01 per 60 minutes. This is a case where the eye test and numbers match.

 

The question is why Green keeps sending him out there on PP. Reminds me of when Willie insisted on sending out Megna with the Sedins for long stretches. We like to believe that the coaches know better than casual fans but I cannot see a justification for staying with Pouliot so long. I guess the argument relates to development -- give the guy a chance to improve. But when Hutton took his spot on the 1st unit PP against Montreal it was better right away.

 

You might argue that this is all based on a small sample. And it is. That is an argument for using shots.  So who is worst on the team in net shots per 60? The answer is still Pouliot. Second worst is Goldy. Hard to get shots off when passes are being deflected or doing into your feet.

 

The first unit PP will be a lot better when Edler, Baerschi and Boeser come back. Everyone knows that. But in the meantime, on the numbers, the PP would be much better with Hutton instead of Pouliot (who would seem to have no business on either the 1st unit or the 2nd unit). I would give Stecher a chance on the second unit. 

 

The "fix" for the forwards is not obvious, but one guy who will be playing is Gagner who is almost certain to improve the PP. And, in the numbers, Granlund, Virtanen and Gaudette are well ahead of Goldy (although position is an issue.)

 

Ericksson's PP numbers are, by the way, terrible. His defensive play is solid but is offensive play is not very good.

 

Anyway, glad to get this off my chest. Would be interesting in any comments. Thanks for reading.

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Only 1 vote?  It's a combination.  Missing Edler, Boeser and Baertschi.  We wouldn't see the same impact with only 1 missing or even 2.

 

Pouliot, Goldobin and ? are 2nd pp at best

 

I'm not even wild about Horvat on the 1st unit.  He's better off the rush than moving the puck around on the pp

 

The drop off of the 1st pp is for the same reason as overall play.  Players can't be playing over their normal level indefinitely.  Somebody has to come back from injury soon

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The PP ain’t great right now obviously miss’n Dudes & Gagne sure as s”&@? Isn’t going to make it better if any thing it might get worse , until there’s a real threat on the other side it’s gonna stink , did you see Montreal’s coach after the Pettersson goal he was steamed,cause the whole game plan is to smuther Pettersson & they didn’t do it on that shift . So alls teams are doing right now against our PP is glue’n a guy to Horvat & having 2 guys who can close the gap on Pettersson cause those are the only real threats out there for now . 

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The injuries are the biggest factors. As you said, Edler gets criticized unfairly. He moves the puck well although his ability to get the shot through is not quite elite. Baer's role in the middle of the ice is critical in opening up a seam so that a pass can get through to Boeser or EP for one timers and Baer generally does a great job of relaying the puck. And of course, if Boeser is not injured, we have two elite level triggermen in EP and Boeser. More options mean harder PP to defend for the opposition.

 

With Boeser out, EP is our only triggerman. Therefore, our PP formulation should have the puck flow to EP for a one timer. It is much easier to defend this PP than the one where you have two triggermen. However, many teams are successful even with one triggerman: Washington with Ovi and Tampa with Stamkos. Granted, they have better personnel that can get the puck to these guys with relative ease.

 

Based on my limited understanding of the game, I don't know if the Canucks were doing the obvious thing of setting EP up for a shot... until, the game against Montreal as is evidenced by Hutty moving the puck to EP for two one timers, the second one leading to a goal.

 

In previous games, the players were trying to get EP the puck to get him to make plays from the left side. But other teams have clearly adapted and EP had to try to thread difficult passes to Goldy or Pouliot. The bigger problem seemed to me that, even when the puck did get to Pouliot or Goldy, it would only lead to a weak shot attempt or worse, turnovers. It was so stupid... you try so hard to get a pass across only to get a weak wrist shot attempt on net? What were the coaches thinking?

 

Hutton succeeded in setting up EP in just one game. But I don't know if this is because Hutty was good (it probably is the case based on your analysis) or because the coaches finally realized that it is best to run the PP from the right side to set EP up for a shot rather than run play from the left so the EP sets up Pouliot or Goldy for a weak wrist shot. 

 

I'd say the injuries are the biggest factors, followed by inability of the coaching staff to modify a PP followed by their inability to get the right personnel out.

 

With Gagner back, we should be able to improve our PP.

 

 

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Gaudette - Horvat - Petey

Gagner - Hutton

 

If thats not how the power play looks tonight then I think they've made a mistake. Also I think it gets understated how much the injuries hurt not just PP 1, but PP 2 as well. the 2nd unit, when healthy, would be something like

 

Eriksson - Grandlund - Goldobin

Virtanen - Pouliot

 

instead, players like leipsic, gaudette, and others have found their way into the mix and their not exactly quaterbacks. Moving Goldy and pouliot down to the 2nd Unit will help the powerplay big time, IMO. looked at how effective that unit was during the winning streak, getting shots and chances and even scored a big goal in the Avs games.

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Yup we miss edler Sven and brock. Considering those three consist of half the skill on this team. 

Horvat ep virtanen the other half.

 

they should put tanev on the point atleast he’s smart with the puck unlike pooalot who has no business even being in the nhl. 

 

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If Goldobin stays on the 1pp, they need to design plays where he shoots and everyone but the point man crashes the net.  Get some greasy goals.  Too often he's trying to make plays that won't work and give away possession or he's trying to shoot top shelf, misses and the puck goes off the boards and down the ice.  Have a net front presence, whether Jake, Loui or Bo and shoot the puck at the net.  Shoot with the intention of a rebound or deflection and don't try too hard.  I'm not a fan of Bo below the goal line unless Baertschi is on the ice - they worked some plays but since he's been off, there's been nobody with chemistry for that play.  This has left exactly one play - one timer from Pettersson.  If that's all you've got, it's easy to shut down.

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18 hours ago, Alflives said:

Need Juiolevi to run the PP.  

Yasss looking forward to that. his deceptive cross ice passes are sorely lacking. 

 

Once healthy with Boes set up on the left and Petey set up on the right with Bo in front of the net.... will be great 

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