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[Signing] Penguins re-sign Jake Guentzel

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32 minutes ago, coryberg said:

Guentzal .33 goals/game  .72 points/game

With crosby and the high flying penguins

At age 24

 

Vs.

 

Boeser     .46 goals/game  .86 points/game

With the 2017-19 canucks

At age 21

 

Why not?

EP aint far off Crysby point totals. Boeser is getting more than Guentzal, but I just hope JB can get a solid deal for the team. Next will be EP, we need to lock up our key guys soon as possible to try keep the cap hit down.

 

Boeser didnt want to sign in summer, he was betting on himself. Is that an issue why wouldnt he want to sign and get that guaranteed $? Personally I dont think Brock can make a line go, he is more of a finisher, he can play make dont get me wrong.

 

Boeser 8yr 7.5m cap hit that should be fair for everyone. The Flow on his head can make him Millions too with endorsements 

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1 hour ago, Type R said:

He's a good player, but 6M per seems a little steep no? 

He has to give Crosby half of his yearly salary as part of a clause in the contract. 

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I don’t think it is too far of a stretch that this is a comparable at the low end for Boeser.

 

Pastrnak, Nylander, Guentzel.

 

Somewhere is the $6-7 million is fair.

 

 

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Over a point per game in the playoffs in a team that won back to back cups. That’ll boost your pay day no matter how you play in the regular season. 

 

Worth noting that he and boeser have the same agent, so possibly a similar negotiation may go on for Brock. 

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2 hours ago, Canuckster86 said:

why? Guentzal 33pts in 36gp

 

Brock 23ps in 26gp

 

Boeser is should be around 7ish Million per season. I hope it does go higher that in the 7's, would prefer the high 6's but thats unlikely. 

 

Be interesting to see how JB handles this. Brock has had some injuries, he is also playing with 1 of the best youngsters in the league. We have cap space, but we need to try be smart when it comes to resigning guys. We got lucky with Bo, but his next deal will be $$$

 

2 hours ago, Canckelhead said:

Guentzal is every bit as good a Boeser, maybe better, thats a fair deal for him and the club.

My first reaction is that this is pretty good news, as I would see Guentzel and Boeser as pretty similar.

 

It is possible to do a lot of cherry-picking with numbers and by changing time periods you can change the results.

 

Here are some relevant numbers.

 

1. Although this year is still a fairly small sample, Guentzel is quite far ahead in 5-on-5 scoring. He has 3.3 points per 60 minutes. Boeser has 2.0 PP60. That is a big difference. They are similar in goals (1.54 vs. 1.47) but Guentzel is a long way ahead in assists (1.76 vs. 0.49). And the guy Boeser is playing with (EP) is no slouch.

 

2. However, Boeser has better PP numbers than Guenztel. If you combine PP and 5-on-5 they are pretty similar.

 

3. To get a longer sample we can add in last year. If we do that, the 5-on-5 numbers are close: 2.28 for Guentzel vs. 2.19 for Boeser,

However, Boeser is quite far ahead on the PP: 6.7 vs. 4.1 in PP60. But it is relevant that Guentzel has improved over last year and Boeser has not.

 

4. Over this year and last year Guentzel contributed more the physical game: 5.7 hits per 60 vs. 1.4 for Brock. Also Guentzel draws more penalties than he takes, whereas Brock takes a few more than he draws. Guentzel is also a better skater.

 

5. The injury worries with Boeser have to be a lot more than with Guentzel, who played all 82 games last year.

 

6. Boeser is younger than Guentzel, which means he is actually much more valuable to the franchise. But that also means that he is at the stage of his career where you could expect a lower "bridge" contract, whereas Guentzel just signed his "prime contract" as it will cover his prime. Brock could expect to sign a moderate contract now and cash in a for a bigger payday down the road. (I agree that the Nylander deal indicates that bridge contracts are getting less common.)

 

I don't think Brock would get any less than Guentzel, but I don't see him getting that much more. So I have Boeser's numbers at between 6 and 7 million and I could see a term of 4 to 6 years.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, coryberg said:

This puts brock at 9 mil :(

 

5 hours ago, Canuckster86 said:

why? Guentzal 33pts in 36gp

 

Brock 23ps in 26gp

He won’t get $9M, but he’ll certainly get well over $7M.

 

Guentzal is 3 years older and has the “Crosby Factor” that is obviously factored in a little.

 

Brock does not have the talent surrounding him to guarantee his production as Guentzal does, which means if he’s not driving his play, or Pettersson, then nothing. Guentzal has Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, and Letang as safety nets to help distribute his production to and get primary or secondary assists to, should he get into a funk.

 

Boeser will likely be in the $7.5M region.

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1 hour ago, 406in604 said:

Maybe not 9, but above 7.5 unless production falls off. 

If he gets a 9 million cap hit, he would be in the top 12 paid players in the league. At 7.5, that puts him around the top 30 paid players. To put it into perspective (just points alone), Boeser is about 60th in points per game this season. Boeser doesn't provide a whole lot aside from his offense, so I don't see much added value to boost his value. Plus we will be buying a lot of RFA years.

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6 hours ago, Provost said:

I don’t think it is too far of a stretch that this is a comparable at the low end for Boeser.

 

Pastrnak, Nylander, Guentzel.

 

Somewhere is the $6-7 million is fair.

 

 

I think Boeser waits to see what Point or Marner gets.

Point is going to get the most money besides Mathews and Laine.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's at least 7.25m+ or it's a bridge deal

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4 hours ago, Monty said:

 

He won’t get $9M, but he’ll certainly get well over $7M.

I was exaggerating a bit when I said 9... but these contracts are spiraling hard.

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8 hours ago, theo5789 said:

If he gets a 9 million cap hit, he would be in the top 12 paid players in the league. At 7.5, that puts him around the top 30 paid players. To put it into perspective (just points alone), Boeser is about 60th in points per game this season. Boeser doesn't provide a whole lot aside from his offense, so I don't see much added value to boost his value. Plus we will be buying a lot of RFA years.

Another thing to factor in though is that a lot of those contracts you're comparing are older and were signed under a lower salary cap, meaning that a newer contract would always be tending higher. A better measure than straight dollars would be percentage of total cap space at time of signing, but those numbers aren't easily available.

 

Players who are currently making $7.5M may have signed that deal three years ago when a $7.5M contract was a bigger deal than it is in today's salary cap situation.

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17 hours ago, Canckelhead said:

Guentzal is every bit as good a Boeser, maybe better, thats a fair deal for him and the club.

uhh?? Have Malkin and Sid feeding Boeser last year he would have scored 50

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9 minutes ago, logic said:

uhh?? Have Malkin and Sid feeding Boeser last year he would have scored 50

Maybe, or maybe Sid and Malkin take a lot of the offensive opportunities as the offense is driven through them unlike with the Canucks where the offense went through Boeser. The Sedins were elite playmakers in their peaks and some players just didn't gel as well despite what looked like a good fit on paper. The Sedins seemed to work better with gritty puck chasers rather than snipers. So in this case, Guentzel who plays a more speed game might fit well with Crosby so it works.

 

Keep in mind, if he was in Pittsburgh, he wouldn't have gotten all those lucky goals against Murray ^_^

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3 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Another thing to factor in though is that a lot of those contracts you're comparing are older and were signed under a lower salary cap, meaning that a newer contract would always be tending higher. A better measure than straight dollars would be percentage of total cap space at time of signing, but those numbers aren't easily available.

 

Players who are currently making $7.5M may have signed that deal three years ago when a $7.5M contract was a bigger deal than it is in today's salary cap situation.

Certainly a lot of factors, but should Boeser be paid in the upper echelon of the league (top 30 paid) regardless of when those contracts are signed? Maybe by his 3rd contract whenever that will be, there's a possibility given he remains consistent. But RFA majority contract and comparables at 6-7 million, I think it'll be overpaying above 7 no matter how you slice it IMO. The cap going up is suppose to give your team more space to sign good depth players, but if you sign players with respect to the cap going up, then it becomes moot and you shoot yourself in the foot. So of course the agent and maybe player wants to sign based on cap percentage, but teams certainly do not and should not. Then factor in the Canucks using an internal signing like Bo and see if they can justify Boeser getting 2 million more a season.

 

Boeser comes off as too much of a team player to think only about himself and will care about the team being successful in the long run, but agents come into play so who knows although he has the same agent as Guentzel and his contract seems quite reasonable.

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12 hours ago, Monty said:

 

He won’t get $9M, but he’ll certainly get well over $7M.

 

Guentzal is 3 years older and has the “Crosby Factor” that is obviously factored in a little.

 

Brock does not have the talent surrounding him to guarantee his production as Guentzal does

Guentzal is the best playoff performer in the last 5 years. Success in the playoffs pays.

 

Brock has played with the Sedins or EP40 virtually his whole career. It's not like he's playing with scrubs.

 

There is absolutely no way Brock's agent can argue he's worth 2mil more than Guentzal, especially with his injuries. The Canucks will laugh at that ask.

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1 minute ago, mephnick said:

Guentzal is the best playoff performer in the last 5 years. Success in the playoffs pays.

 

Brock has played with the Sedins or EP40 virtually his whole career. It's not like he's playing with scrubs.

 

There is absolutely no way Brock's agent can argue he's worth 2mil more than Guentzal, especially with his injuries. The Canucks will laugh at that ask.

Not when Nylander just got the contract he did.

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44 minutes ago, Monty said:

Not when Nylander just got the contract he did.

That Nylander contract has to be considered an anomaly. If his contract becomes the new standard, there will be a lockout guaranteed. I hope for Nylander and Toronto's sake that he takes himself up another level to earn that contract, but at the same time, it'll be fun to see Toronto crash and burn because of it as well.

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1 hour ago, mephnick said:

Brock has played with the Sedins or EP40 virtually his whole career. It's not like he's playing with scrubs.

Now that you mention it....

 

H. Sedin 3 goals and 50 points

Crosby   29 goals and 89 points

 

Looks like a wash to me :P

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