VanGnome

Playoffs, could it happen?

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Let's start off with saying I don't want Quinn Hughes playing more than 9 regular season games this year because that would burn off the first year of his ELC and he'd have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft.  Just looking at this for the good of the team, the more players exempt from this draft the better.  I definitely don't think he'd leave college early to sign with the Canucks.

 

Secondly, Markstrom is still a wild card.  Markstrom played quite well during the second half of last year too, so I'm hoping this is the same streak here.  Sure he can't keep up is .943 save percentage for December, but .920 would be respectable at least which is what he was doing in the back half of last year.  Remember before this streak of games he came off a horrendous streak.  As much as I wouldn't want to see this, I still have it in the back of my mind, but I'm cheering for him every day to keep this up.

 

Thirdly, I don't really want to look into general specifics.  I just want to enjoy the ride.  No need to complicate this.  I'm just gonna walk with Elias.

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Just now, drummerboy said:

I’m pretty sure if he plays 1 game he burns a year off his contract.  

The 9 game thing is for juniors. 

I read somewhere that the 9 game rule came into effect for this as well and I also heard it on one of mirokiondefence's videos (I trust him with knowing nhl contract specifics).  Could be wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

Let's start off with saying I don't want Quinn Hughes playing more than 9 regular season games this year because that would burn off the first year of his ELC and he'd have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft.  Just looking at this for the good of the team, the more players exempt from this draft the better.  I definitely don't think he'd leave college early to sign with the Canucks.

 

Secondly, Markstrom is still a wild card.  Markstrom played quite well during the second half of last year too, so I'm hoping this is the same streak here.  Sure he can't keep up is .943 save percentage for December, but .920 would be respectable at least which is what he was doing in the back half of last year.  Remember before this streak of games he came off a horrendous streak.  As much as I wouldn't want to see this, I still have it in the back of my mind, but I'm cheering for him every day to keep this up.

 

Thirdly, I don't really want to look into general specifics.  I just want to enjoy the ride.  No need to complicate this.  I'm just gonna walk with Elias.

The only players I'm even remotely concerned with protecting for the expansion is Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, Virtanen, Gaudette, Demko, Juolevi. Everyone else are replaceable pieces.

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2 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

I read somewhere that the 9 game rule came into effect for this as well and I also heard it on one of mirokiondefence's videos (I trust him with knowing nhl contract specifics).  Could be wrong.

Gaudette played 5 last year and It took a year off his.  

Boeser played 9 and same thing.  

 

Dont see why Hughes would be any different 

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Just now, VanGnome said:

The only players I'm even remotely concerned with protecting for the expansion is Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, Virtanen, Gaudette, Demko, Juolevi. Everyone else are replaceable pieces.

So you don't want to protect Dahlen, Baertschi, Goldobin, Hutton, Gadjovich, or any big splash free agents we could sign over the next two years?  Cause I know I would want to keep all the guys I could rather than set a team back which just made it out of a rebuild.

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Just now, drummerboy said:

Gaudette played 5 last year and It took a year off his.  

Boeser played 9 and same thing.  

 

Dont see why Hughes would be any different 

Hughes is in his first year.  The slide rule applies to D+1 players.  Gaudette was D+3, Boeser D+2.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

Hughes is in his first year.  The slide rule applies to D+1 players.  Gaudette was D+3, Boeser D+2.

Misread that.  lol.  

Im still not sure that matters

Edited by drummerboy
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The expansion rules have minimum thresholds for 

2 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

So you don't want to protect Dahlen, Baertschi, Goldobin, Hutton, Gadjovich, or any big splash free agents we could sign over the next two years?  Cause I know I would want to keep all the guys I could rather than set a team back which just made it out of a rebuild.

Teams had to submit their list of protected players by June 17, 2017, and they had to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman that had played at least 40 games in the 2016–17 season or more than 70 games in the 2015–16 and 2016–17 seasons combined and had to still be contracted for the 2017–18 season.

 

The Seattle expansion will be using the same rules as the Vegas expansion. 2020-2021 is a ways away and a lot can happen in terms of roster flux. Goldobin, Baertschi, and Hutton could very well not be on the team. Juolevi, Dahlen and Gadjovich could not be eligible for expansion at all depending on how they're used.

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5 minutes ago, VanGnome said:

The expansion rules have minimum thresholds for 

Teams had to submit their list of protected players by June 17, 2017, and they had to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman that had played at least 40 games in the 2016–17 season or more than 70 games in the 2015–16 and 2016–17 seasons combined and had to still be contracted for the 2017–18 season.

 

The Seattle expansion will be using the same rules as the Vegas expansion. 2020-2021 is a ways away and a lot can happen in terms of roster flux. Goldobin, Baertschi, and Hutton could very well not be on the team. Juolevi, Dahlen and Gadjovich could not be eligible for expansion at all depending on how they're used.

Yes, Juolevi, Dahlen, Gaudette, Macewen, and Gadjovich will all be elgible since they are playing in the AHL this year.  All 3rd year professionals are eligible and this includes the AHL.

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1 minute ago, Rindiculous said:

Yes, Juolevi, Dahlen, Gaudette, Macewen, and Gadjovich will all be elgible since they are playing in the AHL this year.  All 3rd year professionals are eligible and this includes the AHL.

I still think that worrying about one player who could improve our odds at making the playoffs which could unbelievably improve the team when it comes to expansion is a bit too conservative. If as you say all 3rd year AHL players are eligible as well then we will have more players eligible for expansion than we'll be able to protect anyway. I'd rather take overall team improvement over not having that improvement by being too cautious and conservative in fear of the unknown 2 years from now.

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Posted (edited)

Canucks need a 0.667 Winning % the rest of the season to get to 96 points, or a combination of OTL / W will also do. Theoretically, the worst record the canucks could have in wins / losses is : 18-1-20

 

Basically the canucks have to 2 W / 1 L for the rest of the season to guarantee playoffs, if at any point, the team does say 6 W in a row, they could afford 2L in a row. What would really help vancouver is a 9 game winning streak which if started now, would be at 28-19-4 or 60 points. AT that point, with 31 Games left, all they'd need is a 18-13-0 record or 0.58%, still hard. This team needs to realistically get to a point where they play only .500 to get in, which would require them to go on a 14 game winning streak. If that is the case, they'd be at 33-19-4, or 70 points. Then all they need to do is 13-13-0.

Edited by Shaelon
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57 minutes ago, VanGnome said:

The expansion rules have minimum thresholds for 

Teams had to submit their list of protected players by June 17, 2017, and they had to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman that had played at least 40 games in the 2016–17 season or more than 70 games in the 2015–16 and 2016–17 seasons combined and had to still be contracted for the 2017–18 season.

 

The Seattle expansion will be using the same rules as the Vegas expansion. 2020-2021 is a ways away and a lot can happen in terms of roster flux. Goldobin, Baertschi, and Hutton could very well not be on the team. Juolevi, Dahlen and Gadjovich could not be eligible for expansion at all depending on how they're used.

All our AHL guys now will be eligible to be taken because AHL counts as pro years.

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Posted (edited)

A lot of variables but we have all home games nicely spaced out after the Toronto game in January. This means recovery and practice time. Also the games in hand everyone has (Minnie has 5 gih!) will pretty much even out by the end of the month. Realistically we are 5-6 points away from the final wildcard spot which is not massive over the course of 39 games. If we can improve at home we will make the playoffs (which hopefully means we play the Flames round one)

Edited by theochar

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3 hours ago, Rindiculous said:

Let's start off with saying I don't want Quinn Hughes playing more than 9 regular season games this year because that would burn off the first year of his ELC and he'd have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft.  Just looking at this for the good of the team, the more players exempt from this draft the better.  I definitely don't think he'd leave college early to sign with the Canucks.

 

Secondly, Markstrom is still a wild card.  Markstrom played quite well during the second half of last year too, so I'm hoping this is the same streak here.  Sure he can't keep up is .943 save percentage for December, but .920 would be respectable at least which is what he was doing in the back half of last year.  Remember before this streak of games he came off a horrendous streak.  As much as I wouldn't want to see this, I still have it in the back of my mind, but I'm cheering for him every day to keep this up.

 

Thirdly, I don't really want to look into general specifics.  I just want to enjoy the ride.  No need to complicate this.  I'm just gonna walk with Elias.

 

Hughes needs just 1 game to burn a year of his ELC.  He's going to turn 20 this year - he will no longer be a teenager so the 9 games doesn't apply anymore.  He'll be a 3rd year pro by the expansion draft and will need to be protected.

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We have played more games than other teams around us, so we are a bit higher than where we really are IMO. We will be competitive down to the wire this year instead of collapsing like years before (barring injuries), but just miss out on the playoffs this year. This is going along well with how I've been projecting this rebuild so far. 

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I still say the odds are very low. 

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The toughest part of the schedule is still to come. In years past the Canucks have fallen off hard in January/February. The win 2 lose 1 philosophy is extremely difficult to maintain with half the schedule still to come. However, if they can keep scoring at a decent pace and get solid goaltending down the stretch anything is possible. Unlikely, but possible. 

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