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Playoffs, could it happen?

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Hockey Gawd is really rounding into a significant NHL center with a complete 200 foot game, offensive upside, and flat-out drive and is making it easier to do without Sutter.

Nobody is going to replace Roussel of course, but Gaudette, Motte, Beagle, Bulldog,  and maybe even Teves are all really good motors.

 

Even if we don't make the playoffs (say it ain't so, Joe), this run is very exciting and building team morale big time.

The wheels could always fall off and it is just too easy to predict like Negative Nelly or Chicken Little when the odds are so long.

 

But the hockey is great.  The team is really coming together and playing great.  Fans are really entertained.

This is just a whole lot of fun and we're not (mathematically) out of it yet.

 

If we do get in, we will be on one hell of a run and primed to keep it going.

We will probably get Calgary (I think) and will have most-likely beaten them recently (tomorrow's game should be great), so who knows?

 

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15 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

 

Horvat's ppg increased with Sutter out of the lineup this season, from 0.654 to 0.833. 

 

 

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

Just give Bo the C already. 

Edited by rekker
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4 minutes ago, rekker said:

Just give Bo the C already. 

I wasn't certain at the start of the season....seeing the disposition that EP has - he looks like a natural born captain himself - thought it may make sense to wait and let the chips fall later.

 

But what Horvat has done this year is in/approaching Bergeron territory - not just a captaincy - but emerging as one of the best two way play drivers in the game.

Edited by oldnews
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21 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I wasn't certain at the start of the season....seeing the disposition that EP has - he looks like a natural born captain himself - thought it may make sense to wait and let the chips fall later.

 

But what Horvat has done this year is in/approaching Bergeron territory - not just a captaincy - but emerging as one of the best two way play drivers in the game.

Also, Bo has worked so hard on his faceoff prowess and it has paid off. EP is a leader as well and either would make a good choice. I love the emotion Bo brings to his game. His emotions seem very much in control on the downs which is very important for a captain. But when Bo is up he is way up which I like. One further point is both Bo and EP hate, absolutely hate losing. They can't even hide it. I still lean towards Bo for captain for sure though. 

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40 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

Glad you asked.

Roussel, Eriksson, Virtanen, Goldobin, and Boeser have all also increased their ppg with Sutter out. So no, it's not an anomaly. The anomaly is actually Pettersson, which makes sense as he started the year on a tear and has slowed as the season has progressed.

Edited by Duodenum

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1 minute ago, rekker said:

Also, Bo has worked so hard on his faceoff prowess and it has paid off. EP is a leader as well and either would make a good choice. I love the emotion Bo brings to his game. His emotions seem very much in control on the downs which is very important for a captain. But when Bo is up he is way up which I like. One further point is both Bo and EP hate, absolutely hate losing. They can't even hide it. I still lean towards Bo for captain for sure though. 

Yeah - I think Horvat has done his time, 'earned' his leadership role - learned from his veteran team-mates - and probably more importantly, his on-ice game is speaking for itself - louder and louder as he continues to develop.

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8 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

Glad you asked.

Roussel, Eriksson, Virtanen, Goldobin, and Boeser have all also increased their ppg with Sutter out. So no, it's not an anomaly. 

Your reading comprehension requires some attention if you believe you were asked something there.

 

Shocking though, that players like Roussel, Eriksson etc might increase their production as the lineup loses multiple forwards, and they step up in the lineup,  play more minutes.  I think you forgot Josh Leivo!

 

I'd certainly try to find a way to blame that on Sutter lol.

 

You're outsmarting yourself.

Edited by oldnews

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1 hour ago, oldnews said:

Your reading comprehension requires some attention if you believe you were asked something there.

 

Shocking though, that players like Roussel, Eriksson etc might increase their production as the lineup loses multiple forwards, and they step up in the lineup,  play more minutes.  I think you forgot Josh Leivo!

 

I'd certainly try to find a way to blame that on Sutter lol.

 

You're outsmarting yourself.

 

Nope, you're trying to move the goalposts when you're wrong, as usual. 

 

Quote

Those are all causes to be really interested in the rest of the season imo - but the playoffs - and you're talking a real 'optimist' here - I'm not all that 'optimistic' in spite of those young guys - because I think the team will really need Sutter, Tanev (and/or Hutton)....

Without those guys - it's a one scoring line team with Horvat's playing too much shutdown

You are the one that said we are a one-line team when Sutter is out. Then I showed you how most of the players have done better with him out. Here's another tidbit: The Canucks have a higher gpg without Sutter overall. I'm making zero claims regarding this information, solely that in order to be a 'one scoring line team' without Sutter, the statistics have to back that up. Otherwise, you are simply just trying to pass off your opinion as a false fact. Unless you also mean to say we are a one line team with Sutter, but then what would be the point of saying that in the first place :lol: . If you want to salvage something at this point, you can try the 'what I meant was scoring line, Horvat is now a defensive line'. Though that is just picking at straws. We know what you meant, you've paraded this nonsense in other posts (usually saying that Horvat's production decreases..when it clearly does not, in fact, it goes up by quite a bit). 

 

Your claim is incorrect, sorry. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

If you want to salvage something at this point, you can try the 'what I meant was scoring line, Horvat is now a defensive line'. Though that is just picking at straws. We know what you meant, you've paraded this nonsense in other posts (usually saying that Horvat's production decreases..when it clearly does not, in fact, it goes up by quite a bit).

 

 

Not sure if serious.

What I've precisely said is that Horvat's line is drawn into shutdown/defensive zone starts in the absence of Sutter.  Try quoting something - representing what a person is saying and you save yourself this weak grasping.

And feel free to quote any of my posts that "usually say that Horvat's production decreases".   Just one will do.  Good luck with that.

 

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15 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Not sure if serious.

What I've precisely said is that Horvat's line is drawn into shutdown/defensive zone starts in the absence of Sutter.  Try quoting something - representing what a person is saying and you save yourself this weak grasping.

And feel free to quote any of my posts that "usually say that Horvat's production decreases".   Just one will do.  Good luck with that.

 

Sure, here you go:

 

Quote

When the team had a second scoring line - ie when Sutter was in the lineup and Horvat was not forced into shutdown duty - EP's line was as 'planned' = they had hard-minutes shutdown support from the 'bottom 6' - and they had a second threat for opponents to handle = Horvat's line, which was likewise producing very nicely in less d-weighted minutes.

 

Quote

Overall Pearson at 39.8% ozone starts, with respectable 'possession' numbers (47.4% corsi) -  but bringing a bit more heaviness to the forward group.

Looking forward to what that line will look like when the team is healthy - with Sutter and Beagle lines intact, Horvat was up over 50% ozone starts (earlier in the season) - the team has that second scoring line, those guys production spike significantly (as does EP's....)

I guess teams don't need to worry about Horvat anymore, he's only put up a 68 point pace with Sutter out vs a 54 point pace with Sutter in :bigblush:

 

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So the Canucks have eight games left to play and are four points out of a playoff spot. 

In their last five games they've secured 9 of a possible 10 points.

 

Hughes hasn't even played one game. Cant wait to see how he contributes to a team fighting for a playoff spot.

 

Could the Canucks make the playoffs? Yes. 

Will they?

 

Calgary
Columbus
Anaheim
Los Angeles
Dallas
San Jose
Nashville
St-Louis

Edited by Me_

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11 minutes ago, Me_ said:

So the Canucks have eight games left to play and are four points out of a playoff spot. 

In their last five games they've secured 9 of a possible 10 points.

 

Hughes hasn't even played one game. Cant wait to see how he contributes to a team fighting for a playoff spot.

 

Could the Canucks make the playoffs? Yes. 

Will they?

 

Calgary
Columbus
Anaheim
Los Angeles
Dallas
San Jose
Nashville
St-Louis

1.6 % chance.

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41 minutes ago, Me_ said:

So the Canucks have eight games left to play and are four points out of a playoff spot. 

In their last five games they've secured 9 of a possible 10 points.

 

Hughes hasn't even played one game. Cant wait to see how he contributes to a team fighting for a playoff spot.

 

Could the Canucks make the playoffs? Yes. 

Will they?

 

Calgary
Columbus
Anaheim
Los Angeles
Dallas
San Jose
Nashville
St-Louis

Could the Canucks make the playoffs? It's possible depending on if they pretty much  run the table. Will they? If the teams they are chasing have a losing record to close out the season. 

Edited by AlwaysACanuckFan

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Wild beating Washington doesn't help. What's up with that?

Edited by Slegr

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15 hours ago, Filthy McNasty said:

You are a buzz kill 

 

I know I know

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15 hours ago, oldnews said:

every year people formulate these over-thought (imo) rationalizations of probability.....

 

And every year there are unpredictable things that happen.  I think people overthink / 'analyze' these scenarios.

 

I mean - when you're talking about a 4 pt gap - you're talking about a two-game/win deficit - and it can be as simple as a few teams losing a couple consecutive games - and the entire formula becomes meaningless.   Literally 3 nights from now this team could be tied for a playoff spot.....

 

We'll know when we know - but to try to put a 1% on it isn't necessarily as 'rational' as the math might appear.

Yeah and I'm saying that the 4 point gap (now 5 point gap) is more than you think you consider the fact that it's not just one team that's ahead, it's 4 teams.

 

So even if we were ONE point behind all 4 teams for the last playoff spot, the possibility would still be very small, because there's 4 teams ahead and we need to outplay all of them.

 

In this situation, we need to not only outplay 4 teams, but vastly outplay Colorado, Arizona, and Minnesota, hence the even smaller probability.

 

I can take the probability component out completely and it would essentially be the same.

 

And of course, unexpected things do happen, but that's when you're not expecting them or thinking about them, which is why it seems like it happens so often. There's so many small probability events that people never think about because people have better things to worry about in life, and most of don't happen just as they shouldn't according to their probabilities. But it's the ones that do happen that catch our eye, and make the graphics on Sports Centre that say how small of a probability there was etc... and make us think math is wrong

Edited by Grape

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When scoreboard watching, it's really only Minnesota, Colorado and Arizona that matter. This relates to post season play only. As far as draft goes, teams like Chicago, Edmonton, NYRs enter the conversation.

 

Personally, while I cheer, every game, for the Canucks to win, I'm not pro any post season. We're just too vulnerable physically. Some good would definitely come out of making the playoffs, but there's a lot of potential negatives too. Draft position wise, I don't really care. We're probably picking 9/ 10 ish ( pre lotto ). Picking 16 is not an issue.

 

Absolutely not on 'team tank', but don't want to make the playoffs because other teams lose to our advantage !

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