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[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | Jan. 05, 2019

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On ‎1‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 6:38 PM, b3. said:

Gudbranson really showed us how awful he can be. Good Lord.

Problem is he came advertised as a shut down defenseman and a "nuclear deterrent" so people won't cheap shot our players.  
He's neither of those things.  He's a physical 3rd pairing guy and if he's asked to do anything else he'll look awful at times.  

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3 hours ago, 'NucK™ said:

Can't argue with you there but I'm not trying to say that +/- is a tell-all stat, while you are saying it's completely useless.

 

No actually what I said is it's useless out of context, which is how you took it originally.  Your paraphrase unfortunately is straw.

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54 minutes ago, oldnews said:

No actually what I said is it's useless out of context, which is how you took it originally.  Your paraphrase unfortunately is straw.

Well then, the context is that Gudbranson and Hutton are both fringe NHL d-men. Their awful +/- backs that up. Better? 

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On 1/5/2019 at 11:10 PM, 'NucK™ said:

I disagree. 

The team has a -15 goal differential. Guddy is 5th in league +/- (-), Hutton is 11th. 

Sad.

Yes you will say the stat is not useful on it's own... but these two are not playing top pairing minutes and yet this?? So why?? 

Considering all teams who make the playoffs mostly have "+" (they score more goals than goals against) and teams that don't make the playoffs have mostly "-"; and each player on the team contributes to +/- of the team.....nah, give your head a shake, it's a mean nothing stat that should be ignored.

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On 1/5/2019 at 11:13 PM, Seinfeld said:

Team is borderline unwatchable.

 

Horvat has been run into the ground and is on fumes. Feel bad for the guy and can't imagine what he says in his head when he constantly sees Eriksson and whatever other plug line up beside him.

 

A bottom nine nobody will remember in about in 2-3 years.

 

Finally people are seeing the true Gudbranson aka a 6/7th defensemen, a wannabe tough guy who does his patented rub-out hit when he follows his check up the half wall putting himself out of position but makes sure he presses himself against his check hard enough to make the end boards wobble a bit to draw 'oohs' and 'aahhs' from the casuals and a hard-earned hit on the stat sheet, a player who can't make a 7 foot pass to his D-partner on the other side if his life depended on it - let alone a stretch pass, doesn't clear the crease effectively as much as you would imagine from a guy his size, a fringe NHLer who if you searched for "off the boards and out" in the NHL dictionary you wouldn't see a picture of him because all he does is "off the boards and icing". And has two more years at 4M per?!?!?! HAHAHHAHA

maybe it is as simple as Gud needing glasses....he could be really near sighted.

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On 1/5/2019 at 11:19 PM, oldnews said:

What do you disagree with?

First the numbers are plain wrong - Gud and Hutton would have had to combine for -18 tonight to hit those numbers - what the poster did is double their minuses from tonight, assuming they hadn't been factored into.

They went into this game -12 and -13.

Why are their plus/minus like this?  First, they were the shutdown pairing in the absence of Edler, Tanev, Sutter and Beagle - during a brutal 12 or so game stretch in which the team lacked realistic depth.    They still play a secondary shutdown role that is going to end in more minuses that pluses, regardless, unless you do so on an exceptionally competitve team, which this one is not in the present.

Lastly, tonight is an anomaly - I seem to remember a game not long ago where Edler was -4 or 5.....  Shizz happens / can happen on any given night. 

maybe they're not good as shutdown "D"....maybe the stat doesn't lie?

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On 1/6/2019 at 4:52 AM, Wolfgang Durst said:

Seriously, just one good winger?

Right now we have only one real good winger in the top six with Brock.

 

 

...passed on one in the draft (5th overall) and Calgary took him (6th overall)

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On 1/7/2019 at 1:08 PM, PhillipBlunt said:

The forward line shuffle looks good. I was hoping that Green would shuffle the defense though.

 

Might be time to put Edler with Gudbranson and Tanev with Hutton.

 

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On 1/7/2019 at 1:16 PM, oldnews said:

My take on that would be:

Let's start with EP......First of all, 67.2% ozone starts.   Period.  He's utilized as a specialized ozone start player - like the Sedins were - in order to maximize his production, as clearly the most lethal/dangerous scoring threat this team has.  Additionally there's the counterpoint - to avoid having him face inopportune/tough matchups whereever possible - as both a young and undersized center - to 'shelter him' to some extent, particularly from a lot of down low battling in his own zone whereever avoidable. 

Other factors though - asided from tailoring his minutes - he's actually a very intelligent defensive forward - his ability to read and anticipate plays, particularly in open ice, will serve his ability to counterpunching /score in transition - we've already seen some prominent events in this respect this year (ie that game-winning assist off the stick of Dion Phaneuf).    Pettersson also tends to draw the more productive two-way D pairing(s) to complement him - and the team has literally been built to enable him and his wingers - from Sutter and Beagle to Horvat, there are three capable defensive centers in the lineup - a build designed to provide young players like EP, Boeser (Goldobin) conditions that enable/maximize their ability to produce.

A third factor - he finishes at an astonishing rate.  Period again.  His corsi (with those 67.2% ozone starts) is just over 50% at 50.9 - so despite the tilted ice, his line is relatively giving up territory and shots - but EP crushes it with a 27.8% shooting percentage (!) - and Brock is no slouch either at 14%.  They convert at an 'elite' level - and, tending to face opposition shutdown units, their opponents tend not to.

 

Stecher - likewise in addition to being a solid, hard working, intelligent young defenseman - comes in behind a pair of shutdown RHD like Tanev and Gudbranson.  While his ozone starts aren't quite as high (at 52.8% - would likely be higher had it not been for absences of, injuries to Tanev/Edler), he generally does not have to face the quality of competition those other two pairings do (and conversely, +/- of guys like Gud and Hutton are inflated and misleading, particularly when they had to step up to principal shutdown unit).   

Stecher is under-rated imo - mobile and quick-minded, you can see how adept he is both with his first pass, and his defensive reads - makes consistent, solid decisions and gets into the heart of plays quickly.   Like with EP, his situational use helps enable good goal (metrics) results, but he also takes advantage of those minutes imo (worth noting that an undersized defenseman has a +10 turnover differential - 19 takeaways, 9 giveaways - Virtanen +15, Motte +12 and Granlund +14 are the only players on the team who exceed Stecher, and they're all defensive/two-way forwards).   I also think that despite the "Pooalot" whipping boy obsession on these boards, DP (despite his puck-moving mistakes under pressure, principally down low behind his own net) actually moves and drives play subtley, as does Stecher, and despite their being undersized as a pair, they are both mobile, reasonably aggressive in general, they are both capable in coverage, they can both move the puck....maybe an unconventional 'third pairing', but not exactly ineffective, particularly when they're coming in behind what are essentially a couple shutdown pairings (with Edler, and sometimes Hutton, drawing 'two-way' duty). 

EP and Stecher - both solid players - and in situations to succeed.

 

A more nutshell answer would be - you don't judge players like Manny Malhotra negatively on plus/minus.  And conversely, you don't judge the Sedins positively on their corsi or their +/-.

forgot to mention EP40 gets matched with the other teams shutdown "D" and stiffer competition....yet he has a good "+" stat.

 

I've noticed you put a lot of weight into Ozone and Dzone starts, I'm not discounting this as unimportant, but you seem to put too much emphasis on this stat. Hockey is a fast game where chances can be created just as well in the Dzone off the rush as they can in the Ozone...the key is puck retrieval and puck possession. A team may be better retrieving the puck in the Dzone and creating off the rush, than facing off in the Ozone and trying to retrieve the puck and create a scoring chance. The game is more complex than ozone and dzone starts and corsi also doesn't consider quality of competition...separating stats can be very misleading if they are not used in combination with the overall systems of the game.

 

Hey, I'm not discouraging you from spewing your stats, I don't mind seeing the numbers....but I take them with a grain of salt.

 

 

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On 1/6/2019 at 11:19 AM, EdgarM said:

 

 

 

 

 

So with a little better then half the season over, a few things are emerging with this team. There are players who are increasingly looking like they are not a fit on this team going forward and are expendable.

Sutter- Replaceable by eventually Gaudette and not as important as years past, especially with the acquisition of Beagle

Pouliot-Is not really improving to a point where he can be a serviceable NHL Dman.

Granlund- Has been good defensibly on most nights but is too small and not very aggressive for a bottom 6 forward.

Ericksson- Paid a lot of money and does very little for it. Does not produce like a top six and not big and mean enough for the bottom 6.

Goldobin- Weak defensively and not consistent enough producing points as a top 6. Never really improved since his acquisition. He did OK playing with EP ,for a while.

Schaller- Does very little effectively. Should be mean and aggressive but has done very little of that. Should have been an upgrade to Archie but will probably follow him in his footsteps.

Hutton- He is OK but does nothing great and is probably nothing more then a serviceable NHL Dman.

 

Now there are some bright sides to this season so far and the obvious is EP. He is the cornerstone, enough said. Can someone please watch his back though? Anyone!

Markstrom-Big improvement from last year, much more consistent. Should be OK until Demko takes over.

Virtanen-Has improved greatly over last year. Not perfect but he is one of our top 6 and I am not sure why he is not a mainstay there yet.

Horvat- has shown improvement every year since coming here, however he is looking tired or injured lately. Hopefully he gets back to his formal self soon.

Edler/Tanev- These guys are the reason we are not getting blown out most nights, unfortunately they need to come off the ice to rest and that's when we get into trouble.

Motte- He has been a "sparkplug" for most of the season but like Bo, he looks tired or injured as well lately.

Biega- I see him as an upgrade to our bottom D and is at least as good or better then Stecher and Pouliot. Another sparkplug who gives his all every shift and is defensively responsible.

Leivo- Looks like he could be a fit on this team but still may need some more time to get a good look at him.

 

Like others have stated, we are in need of 1 or 2 top 4 dmen and 1 or 2 top 6 forwards, especially one that can help out EP and allow him to grow and prosper and have his back.

Bo needs a winger who has a little more offensive upside and its not Roussel or Ericksson.

Hutton and Gudbranson need to be a third pairing and we need a big dman who can eventually play with Hughes and be a top 4.

We are still too passive IMO and so a big mean winger or a Dman would be a welcome sight for this Canuck fan.

I like the direction we are going and I trust JB will make the appropriate adjustments when he gets the chance.

I agree with alot of this. Hutton is an interesting guy. I think he's played really well, especially compared to last season, but I still don't see him as anything more than a serviceable #4 right now. Its really a shame Juolevi is out for the year, but he should be pushing for Hutton's spot going forward. (hopefully even as early as somepoint next season) 

 

I don't know if Jay Beagle is as good a matchup guy as Sutter. I think Sutter still needs to take the defensive role away from Bo. Gaudette's not quite there yet. 

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On 1/6/2019 at 7:12 PM, PistolPete13 said:

Correct Wai_lai16. This guy would have shutout the Canucks tonight.

 

8B85A5C4-2E90-4EE5-AF52-7BC957B0A1A6.jpeg

I wouldn’t bet against it. We are 1-5 against backups and 5 shutout against :)

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On 1/7/2019 at 4:57 PM, oldnews said:

No actually what I said is it's useless out of context, which is how you took it originally.  Your paraphrase unfortunately is straw.

Oh look at that, all d-men are healthy, playing one of the worst teams in the league, and Guddy is still -2.

 

In case you're still confused (as all your reactions indicate), maybe watch Arizona's 3rd goal again.

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On 1/7/2019 at 4:57 PM, oldnews said:

No actually what I said is it's useless out of context, which is how you took it originally.  Your paraphrase unfortunately is straw.

Still confused? Here's a summary: 

+/- if a perfect stat to indicate how braindead and useless Guddy and Hutton are defensively. 

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19 hours ago, 'NucK™ said:

Still confused? Here's a summary: 

+/- if a perfect stat to indicate how braindead and useless Guddy and Hutton are defensively. 

At least Hutton can skate, and is paid $1.2 million less. 

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