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BlastPast

Mid-point schedule analysis and playoff implications

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23 hours ago, Alflives said:

I know our guys are trying like crazy to make the playoffs, but (at this point of our rebuild) I don't know if a high draft pick is better in the long run?

The Canucks are sitting at 20 wins and 25 losses. After 45 games, you have to say that this is a fair representation of the quality of this team. On the plus side, this team is far better than the bottom dwellers. On the negative side, the Canucks are in that 18 to 20th position in the standings which makes acquiring top end talent a challenge. In my opinion, there are a lot of similarities between the Canucks now and the Oilers 3 years ago. The improvements from here on are tough to make as the Oilers have shown, even with an absolute top end talent and couple of other excellent pieces.

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Minny lost today, a huge win! Now hoping for a regulation loss for the ducks tomorrow ( i dont see it happening though)

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Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I'd rather they not make the playoffs. Yea, it'll be a great experience but IMHO, the expectation to match that success will put too much pressure on the players and organization. Besides' we're still building and missing some key pieces to be contenders.

Let's see where we stand the next season or two.

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OTT tied the game half way through the 3rd, if OTT wins, Vancouver has a chance at overtaking the WC2 spot tomorrow!

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12 hours ago, NexusRift said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I'd rather they not make the playoffs. Yea, it'll be a great experience but IMHO, the expectation to match that success will put too much pressure on the players and organization. Besides' we're still building and missing some key pieces to be contenders.

Let's see where we stand the next season or two.

Best case scenario is Canucks stay close to a playoff spot for the  games to remain competitive.... then we fade over the last 15 games and tank down to great drafting position to get another piece in the puzzle.....

Edited by kingofsurrey
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Playoffs remained in reach after 4 days off for Vancouver,

 

here is today's best possible outcomes:

VAN beats ARI in any fashion

PHI beats DAL in regulation

MTL beats STL in any fashion

**WPG beats MIN** - A win for MIN would mean a minimum of a 1 point separation between VAN / MIN for the WC2 spot, but could be as high as 3 points tonight

*FLA Beats EDM*

Edited by Shaelon

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Today's loss was not as bad as it could have been... but every team I wanted to lose won today, so not a great day for the Canucks,

 

For Tomorrow:

 

PIT beats ANA - This keeps Vancouver 2 pts back rather than 3 pts back

 

Saturday:

MTL beats COL - Brings Colorado closer to Vancouver, 45 GP with 48 pts

DET beats MIN  - Keeps Vancouver 2 pts back, but a win would only make gap 3 points

STL beats DAL - Keeps Dallas closer to Vancouver but not a huge impact

ARI beats EDM - ARI has 3 games in hand and this would bring them closer, but beating Edmonton keeps them at 45 points with only one game in hand

 

Best Case Scenario:

WC1: COL - 45 GP / 48 PTS

WC2: MIN - 44 GP / 47 PTS

3: ANA - 45 GP / 46 PTS

4: EDM - 45 GP / 45 PTS

5: VAN - 46 GP / 45 PTS

6: ARI - 44 GP / 43 PTS

 

Worst Case Scenario:

WC1: COL - 45 GP / 50 PTS

WC2: MIN - 44 GP / 49 PTS

3: ANA - 45 GP / 48 PTS

4: EDM - 45 GP / 47 PTS

5: VAN - 46 GP / 45 PTS

6: ARI - 44 GP / 41 PTS

 

So either a 2 point, 3 point or 4 point gap by the time we play.

 

Playoff bar in the west is currently at 88 points, so Vancouver needs a 21-14-1 record to make the playoffs at existing projections.

Edited by Shaelon

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Every game scenario is working out well, Vancouver is well positioned to tie MIN tomorrow for the final playoff spot and only be one game back of Colorado, lets go CAnucks!

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Hmmmmm..........thus far, us and another team has played more games than all the others. So, our chances of getting near a wildcard spot is.........................................................................NIL!

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Playoff bar after today: 85 pts in the west

 

canucks need 20-16-0 record at current pace.

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20 minutes ago, NexusRift said:

Hmmmmm..........thus far, us and another team has played more games than all the others. So, our chances of getting near a wildcard spot is.........................................................................NIL!

Nope, teams with games in hand keep losing, colorado / minny lost today, best case scenario is edmonton loses tonight, then playoff bar drops to 84 pts! 19-16-1.

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Update:

 

Tomorrow:

TOR Beats COL in regulation

PHI beats MIN in regulation

BUF beats EDM

 

tuesday:

DET beats ANA

LAK bests MIN

 

Standings:

Best Case Scenario:

WC1: COL - 46 GP, 48 PTS

WC2: MIN - 46 GP, 47 PTS

1: VAN - 47 GP, 47 PTS

2: ANA - 47 GP, 47 PTS

3: EDM - 46 GP, 45 PTS

 

Worse Case Scenario:

WC1: MIN - 46 GP - 51 PTS

WC2: COL - 46 GP, 50 PTS

1: ANA - 47 GP, 49 PTS

2: EDM - 46 GP, 47 PTS

3: VAN - 47 GP, 47 PTS

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3 hours ago, Shaelon said:

Update:

 

Tomorrow:

TOR Beats COL in regulation

PHI beats MIN in regulation

BUF beats EDM

 

tuesday:

DET beats ANA

LAK bests MIN

 

Standings:

Best Case Scenario:

WC1: COL - 46 GP, 48 PTS

WC2: MIN - 46 GP, 47 PTS

1: VAN - 47 GP, 47 PTS

2: ANA - 47 GP, 47 PTS

3: EDM - 46 GP, 45 PTS

 

Worse Case Scenario:

WC1: MIN - 46 GP - 51 PTS

WC2: COL - 46 GP, 50 PTS

1: ANA - 47 GP, 49 PTS

2: EDM - 46 GP, 47 PTS

3: VAN - 47 GP, 47 PTS

Kudos for doing this.

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13 hours ago, BlastPast said:

Kudos for doing this.

Will continue to update this thread as the season progresses, either until they clinch or until they miss.

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Today's results were not great, but the good news is Minny lost, so tomorrow, pray for another MINNY loss and we can go into our game Wednesday taking control of WC2.

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Yost tries to assess the strength of the remaining schedule. 

https://www.tsn.ca/strength-of-schedule-and-its-impact-on-playoff-races-1.1241110

 

To map out strength of schedule across the league, I rolled up opponent quality for every team in the league based on expected goal percentage, which better captures team talent than straight goal differential. I also appropriately weighted each team’s road/home splits and applied respective adjustments for ‘schedule loss’ type of games, which include (a) a team on a back-to-back playing a rested team; and (b) a team in a three-game-in-four-night situation playing a rested team.

 

Example: an “Opp. Quality” of 53.0 would indicate an average opponent who has carried 53 per cent of the expected goals through the first half of the season, which would indicate Stanley Cup-calibre competition.

travis-yost.jpg

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We got a point, but winning tonight was so crucial,

 

tomorrow’s results:

BOS beats STL

ANA beats MIN in regulation

LAK beats DAL in regulation

 

best case scenario:

WC1: DAL - 48 GP / 50 PTS

WC2: MIN - 47 GP / 49 PTS

1: EDM - 47 GP / 49 PTS

2: ANA - 48 GP / 49 PTS

3: VAN - 48 GP / 48 PTS

4: STL - 46 GP / 45 PTS

 

worst Case Scenario:

WC1: MIN - 47 GP / 51 PTS

WC2: COL - 47 GP / 50 PTS

1: EDM - 47 GP / 49 PTS

2: VAN - 48 GP / 48 PTS

3: STL - 46 GP / 47 PTS

4: ANA - 48 GP / 47 PTS

 

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