Ryan Strome

2019 Election thread

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1 hour ago, riffraff said:

CBC news website is embarrassingly laughable.

 

i check it most mornings and then I’m embarrassed for getting sucked in.

Honestly wtf. If something is embarrassingly laughable, why on earth would you check it most mornings? 

 

We all laugh at fox, but I sure don't check it most mornings lol

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1 hour ago, luckylager said:

Cheers to that. I usually watch it after work while the kids are still awake so if they decide to stare at a screen they might earn something.

It's gone downhill though.

 

I find it frustrating most nights but choke my though it. Had to vent on the first day of this election though. Bunch of corporate fluffing going on there. 

No talk on education, childcare, elderly care, health, pharma, you know, socialist stuff. Real things Canadians should care about waaaayyyyy before Alberta's oil and pipelines.

 

CBC = Oil > Canada

Thats cause the cbc is a liberal mouth piece.

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11 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Doesn't matter

 

Much like the "ermehgerd capital gains tax" statement Scheer posted out, the ignorant will simply say the RCMP is after Trudeau hehehehe that's why he called an election hehehehe

 

It's tiring knowing that people in the same education system that we went through are literally this stupid

I wonder why the pmo is blocking the rcmp if there is nothing to hide. Hehehe, right?

10 hours ago, luckylager said:

Well CBC can kiss my ass. Today's episode of power and politics was a bunch of tripe.

 

Getting opinions from former premiers on the "key election points" and you drag on a couple of senile assholes and that smug ass waste of skin, corporate crotch licker  Krusty Klaerk

 

Was like a 10 minute plug for focussing on the energy sector. &^@# off.

 

Lol forget balance hey?

10 hours ago, luckylager said:

Cheers to that. I usually watch it after work while the kids are still awake so if they decide to stare at a screen they might earn something.

It's gone downhill though.

 

I find it frustrating most nights but choke my though it. Had to vent on the first day of this election though. Bunch of corporate fluffing going on there. 

No talk on education, childcare, elderly care, health, pharma, you know, socialist stuff. Real things Canadians should care about waaaayyyyy before Alberta's oil and pipelines.

 

CBC = Oil > Canada

Without our oil how will we afford all your *socialist* ideas?

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13 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Doesn't matter

 

Much like the "ermehgerd capital gains tax" statement Scheer posted out, the ignorant will simply say the RCMP is after Trudeau hehehehe that's why he called an election hehehehe

 

It's tiring knowing that people in the same education system that we went through are literally this stupid

I don't think anyone really cares about SNC, they certainly don't in Quebec and Ontario wants protection from Ford.

 

The more Scheer talks about it instead of other things is actually good for Trudeau. Trying to save your ass by saving jobs isn't the sponsorship scandal where people lined their pockets. Or took a $90,000 cheque. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ryan Strome said:

Without our oil how will we afford all your *socialist* ideas?

Alberta grain and beef exports. 

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1 hour ago, Ryan Strome said:

I wonder why the pmo is blocking the rcmp if there is nothing to hide. Hehehe, right?

Honestly?  I think it comes down to common sense and survival.

 

The SNC scandal turned in to an absolute nothing.  Like at all.  The RCMP are now just doing their due diligence because if anything truly investigative was going on, we'd have heard about it.  Ottawa cannot keep secrets to save their lives.

 

But knowing that this turned in to a near 11 point lead for Scheer that then turned in to a 1 point deficit; I think the Libs are simply just trying to keep it under wraps until post election.  I don't think for a moment anything is going to happen in the realms of criminal prosecution but I do think that for all parties involved it is best that this just be looked at under the surface over the next 6 weeks.  

 

Trudeau is obviously not going to bleed much more support over it

Scheer is possibly going to lose support over it because he won't stop talking about it instead of his actual platform.  

Singh...well I don't even know if Singh is aware there's an election going on right now

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3 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

If that's not a bad omen, I don't know what is...

 

 

yikes. Laureen Harper might as well show up with a black cat now. 

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3 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

If that's not a bad omen, I don't know what is...

 

 

As long as the bus didn’t run over pretty boy’s face the Liberals will be just fine.  

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5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

As long as the bus didn’t run over pretty boy’s face the Liberals will be just fine.  

lol how insecure are some people

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some actual real news for 1st time homebuyers - this actually will help some people get into the market here: 

 

Under the current terms of the program, a buyer qualifies for assistance only if the total value of the mortgage, plus the CMHC's portion, does not exceed $480,000. Trudeau announced today that ceiling will increase to $789,000 for certain hot markets such as Victoria, Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/first-time-homebuyers-liberal-announcement-1.5280751

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uh oh. Andrew with some explaining to do again. Quick, where's a 'mad face' gif of Wilson-Raybould? 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

some actual real news for 1st time homebuyers - this actually will help some people get into the market here: 

 

Under the current terms of the program, a buyer qualifies for assistance only if the total value of the mortgage, plus the CMHC's portion, does not exceed $480,000. Trudeau announced today that ceiling will increase to $789,000 for certain hot markets such as Victoria, Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/first-time-homebuyers-liberal-announcement-1.5280751

Carrying through on that.  The economy is always the #1 issue in an election.  This might be the first election cycle in which people are literally willing to ignore simple economic fact and numbers compiled through dozens of different sources though so...who knows

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-votes-2019-cost-of-living-election-issues-1.5280090

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp-growth

 

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/09/canadian-economy-resilient-even-as-global-outlook-worsens/

 

 

 

It's the number one concern among Canadians heading into the fall federal election

CBC News · Posted: Sep 11, 2019 8:37 PM ET | Last Updated: September 11
 
canada.jpg
When asked what their main issue was ahead of the 2019 federal election, almost one-third of respondents said the cost of living. (Reuters)

When asked what their greatest concern is going into the fall election, Canadians put the cost of living at the top of the list by a wide margin, according to a poll commissioned in late May by CBC News.

One-third of Canadians surveyed said it was their number one concern, followed by climate change, which was the top concern of 19 per cent of respondents.

 

How is Canada's economy performing?

Despite the perceived anxieties, Canada's economy has actually been performing quite well. At the end of August, Statistics Canada reported that Canada's economy expanded for the fourth month in a row in June, with 17 of the 20 industries that the data agency tracks growing.

What's more, from April to June, Canada's economy grew at a 3.7 per cent annual pace. That's better than what economists were expecting, and the fastest pace in more than two years.

The majority of Canadians say they have to think about money, but they're getting by. Just over one in 10 say they are not getting by.

What is the unemployment rate?

Canada's jobless rate remained at 5.7 per cent for a second month in September, as the economy added 81,100 net new positions, the bulk of which were part time, in the services sector and picked up by young people.

 
job-gains-losses-graphic-august-2019.jpg

"Stepping back from the monthly swings, the trend remains healthy — a 30,000 average pace of hiring over the last six months is healthy by any measure," Brian DePratto, a senior economist with TD Economics, told CBC News.

Wages in Canada are also on the rise after a long period of stagnation. In  August, Statistics Canada reported that wages increased by 4.5 per cent in the past 12 months, the fastest annual pace in a decade.

Are Canadians still carrying too much debt?

Definitely. For every dollar Canadians earn, they owe about $1.77.

There is some good news. In the first quarter of 2019, Canadians took on less credit debt.

But their total debt levels — including mortgages, credit card debt, and all other forms of personal debt — continue to grow.

Are interest rates going to go up?

The Bank of Canada left its central rate unchanged in September for the seventh cycle in a row. It sits at 1.75 per cent.

"Canada's economy is operating close to potential and inflation is on target," the bank said. "However, escalating trade conflicts and related uncertainty are taking a toll on the global and Canadian economies."

In short, the bank will adjust if necessary, cutting its rate if it feels it needs to to stimulate the economy and raising it in order to tame inflation.

Economists and other market watchers are split on whether a rate cut is coming this fall.

The last time there was a rate change was in October 2018, when it was increased by 0.25 per cent.

Is the housing market going to collapse?

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the housing market is actually doing a little better today than it had been for the past two years or so.

The CMHC says there's little evidence of widespread overheating, price acceleration or overbuilding. But there's enough overvaluation to warrant a yellow flag, indicating a "moderate" level of vulnerability.

As usual, there are a few regions that raise some concern. Regina was given a red warning for overbuilding, while Victoria, Hamilton and Toronto's markets were given a red — or "high" — overall.

 
cmhc-quarterly-report-card.JPG
The CMHC's grading system found a 'moderate' level of vulnerability in the housing market overall, with pockets of higher risk in some places. (CMHC)
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5 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

uh oh. Andrew with some explaining to do again. Quick, where's a 'mad face' gif of Wilson-Raybould? 

 

 

That first comment on that twitter thread is a photo of Trudeau at his fathers funeral....this is why I have a hard time trying to reconnect with the right in canada these days.  They're as bad and in fact often times worse than the left because they'll take a stance on things then completely ignore it to attack attack attack.,

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8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

That first comment on that twitter thread is a photo of Trudeau at his fathers funeral....this is why I have a hard time trying to reconnect with the right in canada these days.  They're as bad and in fact often times worse than the left because they'll take a stance on things then completely ignore it to attack attack attack.,

I don't think its going to work. 

 

Trudeau is his own worst enemy in this one, he's really running against himself. Is there enough left of "Trudeau 2015" for people to want him back? Scheer, Singh and May are not good choices. No quality leadership candidates ran for the CPC because no one thought Trudeau would be vulnerable yet. 

 

Voter turnout is going to be fascinating. If there's tons of apathy that might be great for the CPC and maybe they pull off a win. I don't think anyone really knows or can predict this one. 

 

Edited by Jimmy McGill

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Todays polls via Canada 338.  (really enjoying this guys work btw)

 

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-a-day-1-vote-projection-shows-a-liberal-lead-and-a-new-ndp-low/?utm_medium=organic&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3KkLk0vRfy5aaiKroPyxus0xvRJrkMo6Qae6-6kO3WiFXLOBjZoikUbJ4#Echobox=1568293670

 

As Justin Trudeau paid a visit to Governor General Julie Payette this morning, a flurry of new polls were released throughout the day—enough to warrant a full updated projection of the race at the starting line. Here is a short recap:

After releasing it latest federal numbers yesterday, Mainstreet Research published this morning four riding polls for three Quebec regional newspapers: Sherbrooke (La Tribune), Trois-Rivières (Le Nouvelliste), and Quebec City (Le Soleil). Here are the ridings’ poll results:

  • In Trois-Rivières, a town of 140,000 inhabitants halfway between Montreal and Quebec city (which I have affectionately called the Red Deer of Quebec on occasion), incumbent NDP MP Robert Aubin appears to be standing at the bottom of a steep hill for re-election (which would be the case for virtually every Quebec NDP MPs). According to Mainstreet, Aubin is polling in fifth place at only 5 per cent in the district. The Liberals are leading the pack with 36 per cent. The Conservatives take second place with 28 per cent. See Le Nouvelliste‘s article here.
  • In the same Le Nouvelliste article, it is revealed that Bloc québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet is trailing in Beloeil-Chambly, a suburban district in the all-important South Shore of Montreal. With a sample size of 825 respondents in the district, Blanchet gets the support of 26 per cent of decided and leaning voters, against 35 per cent for the Liberal challenger. Incumbent NDP MP Matthew Dubé is fifth with only 8 per cent of support.
  • In Sherbrooke (Quebec’s fourth largest urban centre), incumbent MP Pierre-Luc Dusseault (yet another NDP MP) is in tough for re-election. According Mainstreet, Dusseault is polling at only 12 per cent in fourth place. The Liberal candidate is pulling away from the pack with 44 per cent support, with the Bloc in a distant second place. Here is the La Tribune article.
  • Finally, new numbers in Le Soleil indicate that incumbent Liberal MP Joël Lightbound is leading comfortably in his suburban district of Louis-Hébert (near Quebec City) with 40 per cent. Both the Bloc and the Conservative sit at 20 per cent. Here is the Le Soleil article.

We also add to the 338Canada projection the latest Léger/The Canadian Press poll which was released in the past few hours. Léger’s top line numbers are in line with the recent trends: The Conservatives (35 per cent) are in a virtual tie with the Liberals (34 per cent) on voting intentions. The Greens and NDP are fighting for a distant third place with 11 per cent apiece.

As we have seen with other pollsters lately, Léger’s national and regional numbers do not tell the same story: In Quebec, the Liberals now hold a commanding 15-point lead at 37 per cent. The Conservatives (22 per cent) and the Bloc (21 per cent) are battling for second place. The NDP, after being a force in the province in the past two federal general elections, are polling at a dismal 6 per cent—a level of support that could see the NDP being completely wiped out of Quebec—yes, including the Island of Montreal.

In Ontario, Léger has the Liberals six points ahead of the Conservatives (37 to 31 per cent). Out west, the Conservatives dominate the Prairies by 27 points and Alberta by 46 (!) points. Find the complete Léger report here.

Here are the updated 338Canada popular vote projections:

FOURNIER1-2.png

 

The Conservatives and Liberals remain in a statistical tie with averages of 34.5 and 34 per cent, respectively. Once again, the NDP loses ground to the main parties and slides to 12.6 per cent—the lowest it’s averaged in the 338Canada model since the tracking began last year.

With leads in Atlantic CanadaQuebec and Ontario (and in a near tie in British Columbia), the Liberals lead the seat projections with an average of 169 seats—only one seat short from the majority threshold:

FOURNIER2-2.png

The Conservatives win an average of 142 seats, by (almost) running the table in AlbertaSaskatchewanrural B.C. and major parts of Central and Southwestern Ontario.

The Bloc québécois takes an average of 12 seats (with 19 per cent in Quebec). The NDP falls to 11 seats and the Greens, 4 seats.

Nevertheless, since there remains so many close races—especially in the suburbs of Montreal and Toronto, as well as parts of the Lower Mainland—the Liberals only win the most seats in 68 per cent of all simulations. As of this writing, the Liberals are barely 2-to-1 favourites to win a plurality of seats at the House of Commons.

FOURNIER3-2.png

The Conservatives have their work cut out for them: They hold the most safe seats among major parties and dominate two provinces almost entirely. But it is in Eastern Canada that the CPC has to find ways to make gains.

Numbers in Quebec have looked promising in the past months for Andrew Scheer. (Notice that he launched his campaign in the toss up riding of Trois-Rivières?) But his party seems to have peaked too soon in the province. Last spring, Léger measured as much as 30 per cent support in Quebec for the Conservatives—enough to hope for major gains in rural Quebec—but its latest poll has the CPC down to only 22 per cent, tied with the Bloc in the province.

As John Geddes writes in his new Maclean’s article, the Conservatives’ last hopes to win the most seats and defeat Justin Trudeau may lie in the 30 districts of the GTA where both Harper (2011) and Trudeau (2015) fared extremely well in their respective majority victories.

The writ has been dropped/drawn up (or issued, as some scholars have told me was the correct jargon). The 2019 federal campaign has been launched. In the next 40 days, we will follow the numbers to give Canadians an accurate description of their political landscape.

Enjoy the campaign, dear readers.

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I honestly don't know why anyone uses or believes polls anymore.

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4 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think its going to work. 

 

Trudeau is his own worst enemy in this one, he's really running against himself. Is there enough left of "Trudeau 2015" for people to want him back? Scheer, Singh and May are not good choices. No quality leadership candidates ran for the CPC because no one thought Trudeau would be vulnerable yet. 

 

Voter turnout is going to be fascinating. If there's tons of apathy that might be great for the CPC and maybe they pull off a win. I don't think anyone really knows or can predict this one. 

 

apathy certainly works for the Conservatives without question.  They own the largest most consistent voting bloc.  Being 55+ 

 

But, Ontario/Quebec seem to be almost anti CPC at this point.  They are running endless ads of Scheer's threat to force a national energy corridor through Montreal/Quebec and Ford is the gift that keeps on giving, now with educators and health care seeing provincial funding slashed and tuitions increasing.  Added Dorian just hit the maritimes and the Libs have been skulking around since it was safe but not one Conservative worth mentioning has been seen at all in the maritimes.

 

When you factor that in, if the Libs can take 60% of Ontario 70% of Quebec, 50% ish of BC and the maritimes they hold their majority.

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2 minutes ago, inane said:

I honestly don't know why anyone uses or believes polls anymore.

That's a good point....

 

....we should ask everyone what they think....B)

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2 minutes ago, inane said:

I honestly don't know why anyone uses or believes polls anymore.

These aren't traditional polls.  Canada 338 was created by an astrophysi-something or other.  It compiles real time data from literally every single data bank in the nation to gauge not only electoral trends but also current voter movements.

 

It's actually super impressive from a statistical point of view

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