Ryan Strome

Liberals win minority government

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The election will be in the fall. The race will be between Trudeau and the Liberals vs Scheer and the Conservatives. The NDP is looking like they may get destroyed in this election.

 

The carbon tax looks like it will be a main topic in the campaign. Scheer is promising to scrap the tax while Trudeau is saying he will give tax money back to people.

 

Recent polls suggest it will be a close race.

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Just now, Shift-4 said:

You should add Federal to title  :) 

Good point as we have an election here...if you want to even call it that.

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Polling Firm: Date: Source: Con. NDP Lib. Bloc Green Other Poll weight:  
Nanos 2018-12-07   34.8 15.8 34.1 3.1 8.2 4 0.486 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-11-30   32.2 14.3 37.9 3 7.6 5 0.014 purblebar.png
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Forum 2018-11-29   43 11 34 4 6 2 0.093 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-11-23   31.5 14.5 39.6 2.4 6.9 5.1 0.003 purblebar.png
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Leger 2018-11-20   33 14 39 4 5 5 0.142 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-11-16   28.7 17.2 39.4 2.5 7.3 4.9 0.003 purblebar.png
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Abacus 2018-11-13   31 16 38 4 9 2 0.073 purblebar.png
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Campaign 2018-11-09   35 17 35 4 7 2 0.037 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-11-09   27.5 19.8 39.4 2 6.1 5.2 0.003 purblebar.png
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Mainstreet 2018-11-07   34.6 10.8 39.3 3.4 6.8 5.1 0.031 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-11-02   28.1 19.3 39.6 1.9 6.9 4.2 0.003 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-10-26   28.2 19.3 39.4 2.8 6.5 3.8 0.003 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-10-19   29.4 16.9 39.5 3.6 7 3.6 0.002 purblebar.png
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Nanos 2018-10-12   31.4 16.1 37.1 3.7 7.2 4.5 0.002 purblebar.png
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Forum 2018-10-10   41 15 32 4 7

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As of right now I see another Liberal majority government. Mainly because NDP is damn near defunct.

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I agree the carbon tax will be one of the 'big 3' issues the media discusses this election season. I don't think its going to be the winner the CPC and some premiers think it will be though. It won't have any effect in BC e.g., and people love rebate cheques. I suspect it will play out exactly along party lines and not shift the needle either way.

 

I'm curious to see how much the CPC goes for both personal attacks on JT and fear over manufactured "crisis" points / principle levers that really aren't such as birth tourism or hordes at the border. 

 

The KM pipeline is a loser for Trudeau tho no matter how you slice that one, so maybe that will put him into minority government territory already given the anger in BC over it. 

 

I don't think the key topic has emerged quite yet that will shift the swing vote nationally. Maybe it will be a moment in a debate, maybe it will be something external like a real crisis caused by Trump, but I don't see the 'big issue' quite yet that would say make a red Tory vote for Scheer or someone switch from Liberal to NDP. 

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Just now, Shift-4 said:

As of right now I see another Liberal majority government. Mainly because NDP is damn near defunct.

Ya I'm kind of worried about that and I also think Bernier may steal some votes.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I agree the carbon tax will be one of the 'big 3' issues the media discusses this election season. I don't think its going to be the winner the CPC and some premiers think it will be though. It won't have any effect in BC e.g., and people love rebate cheques. I suspect it will play out exactly along party lines and not shift the needle either way.

 

I'm curious to see how much the CPC goes for both personal attacks on JT and fear over manufactured "crisis" points / principle levers that really aren't such as birth tourism or hordes at the border. 

 

The KM pipeline is a loser for Trudeau tho no matter how you slice that one, so maybe that will put him into minority government territory already given the anger in BC over it. 

 

I don't think the key topic has emerged quite yet that will shift the swing vote nationally. Maybe it will be a moment in a debate, maybe it will be something external like a real crisis caused by Trump, but I don't see the 'big issue' quite yet that would say make a red Tory vote for Scheer or someone switch from Liberal to NDP. 

Do you see any potential major shifts like Layton in Quebec? I wonder if the provincial governments in Ontario and Quebec may push people to vote conservative there.

Edited by Ryan Strome

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7 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think the key topic has emerged quite yet that will shift the swing vote nationally. Maybe it will be a moment in a debate, maybe it will be something external like a real crisis caused by Trump, but I don't see the 'big issue' quite yet that would say make a red Tory vote for Scheer or someone switch from Liberal to NDP. 

I think the big issue will actually be finances. Liberals said they would only run deficits of $10B. They failed on that account.

If economics become a challenge over the coming months for Canada this will give CPC a key topic to hammer Liberals on. Given the Scheer ads I would say the CPC is already positioning themselves for this. No surprise. This is a typical Conservative angle.

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Posted (edited)

I hope for a Conservate minority, or a Liberal minority so that Bernier has some pull in Ottawa.  I’m not a fan of Scheer, he’s shifted the party to the center

Edited by mpt

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3 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Do you see any potential major shifts like Layton in Quebec? I wonder if the provincial governments in Ontario and Quebec may push people to vote conservative there.

Quebec is interesting.... they did elect a right of centre party so thats not good news for JT. 

 

There's no Layton imo but Trudeau might be disliked enough and if there are enough local CPC candidates that people like then Scheer might just pull out a win if BC goes all Green and NDP too which I think is possible. 

 

As of today i think the most likely scenario is a minority Liberal government. Trudeau had the benefit of people really disliking Harper, this time he's standing on his record and people might just be tired of him. Maybe thats the thing the election really turns on, are we sick of Trudeau yet? :P

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3 minutes ago, mpt said:

I hope for a Conservate minority, or a Liberal minority so that Bernier has some pull in Ottawa.  I’m not a fan of Scheer, he’s shifted the party to the center

I'm not so sure he has shifted the party to the centre. Bernier does have ideas I like but his stunt was pretty pathetic. He can't get over the fact he lost.

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2 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

I think the big issue will actually be finances. Liberals said they would only run deficits of $10B. They failed on that account.

If economics become a challenge over the coming months for Canada this will give CPC a key topic to hammer Liberals on. Given the Scheer ads I would say the CPC is already positioning themselves for this. No surprise. This is a typical Conservative angle.

I think we've found big issue #2. 

 

Yeah this one bothers me. I haven't heard any kind of justification for running perpetual deficits. It doesn't mean there isn't a scenario where it makes sense but I don't think they've explained it or sold it well enough.

 

When you look at the numbers yes the dept-GDP ratio is actually going down, which it should be since we're basically stimulus spending at the moment, but that can't mask the fact that the debt itself is growing too large. Saying oh maybe by 2040 it will be balanced scares me. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Quebec is interesting.... they did elect a right of centre party so thats not good news for JT. 

 

There's no Layton imo but Trudeau might be disliked enough and if there are enough local CPC candidates that people like then Scheer might just pull out a win if BC goes all Green and NDP too which I think is possible. 

 

As of today i think the most likely scenario is a minority Liberal government. Trudeau had the benefit of people really disliking Harper, this time he's standing on his record and people might just be tired of him. Maybe thats the thing the election really turns on, are we sick of Trudeau yet? :P

Like Shift said I think Conservatives need to hammer away at the defecit. The new nafta is pretty good for Canada so that's a no go for the cpc. It's also worth mentioning that when Trudeau takes on Trump he seems to spike in the polls. Is that an angle the liberals will use?

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2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I think we've found big issue #2. 

 

Yeah this one bothers me. I haven't heard any kind of justification for running perpetual deficits. It doesn't mean there isn't a scenario where it makes sense but I don't think they've explained it or sold it well enough.

 

When you look at the numbers yes the dept-GDP ratio is actually going down, which it should be since we're basically stimulus spending at the moment, but that can't mask the fact that the debt itself is growing too large. Saying oh maybe by 2040 it will be balanced scares me. 

 

Why?

 

It's been the same bs for decades. Balance the debt! Pay down this! Pay down that! Spend! Save!

 

Does any of it really matter? Does anything really change? 

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3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I think we've found big issue #2. 

 

Yeah this one bothers me. I haven't heard any kind of justification for running perpetual deficits. It doesn't mean there isn't a scenario where it makes sense but I don't think they've explained it or sold it well enough.

 

When you look at the numbers yes the dept-GDP ratio is actually going down, which it should be since we're basically stimulus spending at the moment, but that can't mask the fact that the debt itself is growing too large. Saying oh maybe by 2040 it will be balanced scares me. 

 

I think the issue that will be attacked is they didn't do what they said they would do. It means they either don't know what they are doing or they lied. At least if I was a strategist this is what I would hammer them on.

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2 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Like Shift said I think Conservatives need to hammer away at the defecit. The new nafta is pretty good for Canada so that's a no go for the cpc. It's also worth mentioning that when Trudeau takes on Trump he seems to spike in the polls. Is that an angle the liberals will use?

Oh for sure, trade is one of the areas where Trudeau's team (Freeland in particular) did pretty well. 

 

I'd hammer away on the debt and fiscal responsibility too if I were Scheer. I'd stay away from stuff like "Jihadi Jack" as that is one of those issues that seems like a winner but once you hear the issues it won't shift the needle. Yes he's a little creep, but he also is a Canadian citizen, and by law we have to provide consular assistance if asked. That kind of red herring stuff plays with the base but just makes the argument that Scheer is "just like Harper" more believable. In fact Trudeau is going to do all he can to paint Scheer as Harper 2.0 and things like the Jihadi Jack stuff helps to make Trudeau's case. 

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4 minutes ago, inane said:

Why?

 

It's been the same bs for decades. Balance the debt! Pay down this! Pay down that! Spend! Save!

 

Does any of it really matter? Does anything really change? 

actually Paul Martin did reduce the debt, so every few decades we do get a competent financial manager. 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

actually Paul Martin did reduce the debt, so every few decades we do get a competent financial manager. 

I think Harper early on paid a significant amount towards the debt using surplus money. Then the recession hit and he borrowed and all the sudden it became so easy to run up debt.

 

It's so easy to borrow but it's harder than hell to get out of debt.

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