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All this talk about Alex Edler and Chris Tanev, What about Erik Gudbranson??

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56 minutes ago, apollo said:

 

I believe jannik Hansen dropped the gloves immediately and Kadri went into the featle position. 

 

I hope Gudbranson answers the bell on Sunday. 

 

The Featles.  What a great band name.

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On 1/8/2019 at 5:25 PM, erkayloomeh said:

I would like to know why EG isn't playing as tough as he used to. 

I would like that answer before I were to decide about him because that's the primary asset on him is intimidation. 

Is it green restricting him ? (My suspicion)

He has sustained an injury which prevents him from fighting. ???

Doesn't want to????

If it's green restricting him his value should be higher than what it probably is. 

If he is not providing intimidation I would like to see what we can get for him and replace his physical presence in the off-season .  

green has the whole team on a leash. no retaliation and no rough hits or dirty plays.    which is the opposite hockey i thought green would bring to Vancouver... will have to change my name to the burrard street fairys soon

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On 1/8/2019 at 5:10 PM, 73 Percent said:

Gudbranson just turned 27 he has more of a future on this team than Edler who's turning 33 this year. I believe one of tanev or Edler can help groom young Dmen and contribute after the rebuild but not both. 

 

Just my .02$

 

On 1/8/2019 at 5:21 PM, MikeyBoy44 said:

As if Gudbranson has any value anyways

 

8 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Opposing players said he was tough to play against? Was that before or after he passed them the puck, or stood still while they skated by him?

I am a bit surprised that Guddy gets so much support on CDC. Any criticism generates a storm of protest.

 

Patrick Johnstron has a very interesting and quite critical article on Guddy in today's Province. (See https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/patrick-johnston-blue-liners-like-gudbranson-need-more-than-size-to-thrive-in-nhl-now).

 

Here are a couple of key quotes:

 

"The emphasis on high-tempo hockey that’s emerged over the past decade means the successful teams dress defencemen who can skate, move the puck well and be adept at keeping the puck away from the opposition. Defencemen who don’t meet all three criteria are now liabilities. In other words, the best defence is to not let the other team have the puck."

 

Johnston made the point that this is where Guddy really struggles -- maintaining control of the puck, especially on zone exits.

 

" Nearly one in four of his touches end up in turnovers, icings, or penalties in the defensive zone, it's bonkers!" (His "fail rate is 23.24% -- worst on the Canuck D.)

 

Puck control, or lack thereof, is closely associated with Corsi numbers and with scoring for and against. So it is not a big surprise that his plus/minus is a team worst -20, even though Chris Tanev gets much tougher minutes at RD.

 

These are disturbing numbers.

 

Okay, someone has to have the worst record in zone exits. That is okay if it is offset by something else -- some separating skill. Guddy's separating skill -- the area where he is the leader -- should relate to toughness and physical play. Not just making bodychecks, although that is important, but also acting as a deterrent to taking liberties with star players. That does not mean being a goon and dropping the gloves at every opportunity. It does mean that when opposing player take liberties with the players like EP or Boeser they can expect some extra attention from Guddy. In my view, Guddy has not provided nearly enough of that to offset his weaknesses in other areas.

 

My view is that Guddy and Stecher should swap places. Comparing Guddy and Stecher provides a classic example of the eye test versus the numbers. Guddy looks much more impressive -- much bigger, much stronger, and when he makes a hit people notice. It harder to notice but more important that Stecher makes a lot more clean passes to exit the D-zone.

 

And, interestingly, Pouliot and Guddy have not been too bad together. Not great but, in the numbers, Pouliot looks like a better match for Guddy than Hutton. Hutton, on the other hand, does much better with anyone other than Guddy.

 

I know that I have written a few times that Guddy can be valuable on the third pairing (provided that he plays with enough toughness) but overmatched on the second pairing. I think the time has come to at least take a look at Stecher on the second pairing.

 

 

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10 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Hamilton is as soft as Charmin on a rabbit's ass.

 Seriously? I haven't seen much of him but speaking of soft, that's been our team for quite some time. When will it end?  Way past tired of this b.s. 

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6 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

 

I am a bit surprised that Guddy gets so much support on CDC. Any criticism generates a storm of protest.

 

Patrick Johnstron has a very interesting and quite critical article on Guddy in today's Province. (See https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/patrick-johnston-blue-liners-like-gudbranson-need-more-than-size-to-thrive-in-nhl-now).

 

Here are a couple of key quotes:

 

"The emphasis on high-tempo hockey that’s emerged over the past decade means the successful teams dress defencemen who can skate, move the puck well and be adept at keeping the puck away from the opposition. Defencemen who don’t meet all three criteria are now liabilities. In other words, the best defence is to not let the other team have the puck."

 

Johnston made the point that this is where Guddy really struggles -- maintaining control of the puck, especially on zone exits.

 

" Nearly one in four of his touches end up in turnovers, icings, or penalties in the defensive zone, it's bonkers!" (His "fail rate is 23.24% -- worst on the Canuck D.)

 

Puck control, or lack thereof, is closely associated with Corsi numbers and with scoring for and against. So it is not a big surprise that his plus/minus is a team worst -20, even though Chris Tanev gets much tougher minutes at RD.

 

These are disturbing numbers.

 

Okay, someone has to have the worst record in zone exits. That is okay if it is offset by something else -- some separating skill. Guddy's separating skill -- the area where he is the leader -- should relate to toughness and physical play. Not just making bodychecks, although that is important, but also acting as a deterrent to taking liberties with star players. That does not mean being a goon and dropping the gloves at every opportunity. It does mean that when opposing player take liberties with the players like EP or Boeser they can expect some extra attention from Guddy. In my view, Guddy has not provided nearly enough of that to offset his weaknesses in other areas.

 

My view is that Guddy and Stecher should swap places. Comparing Guddy and Stecher provides a classic example of the eye test versus the numbers. Guddy looks much more impressive -- much bigger, much stronger, and when he makes a hit people notice. It harder to notice but more important that Stecher makes a lot more clean passes to exit the D-zone.

 

And, interestingly, Pouliot and Guddy have not been too bad together. Not great but, in the numbers, Pouliot looks like a better match for Guddy than Hutton. Hutton, on the other hand, does much better with anyone other than Guddy.

 

I know that I have written a few times that Guddy can be valuable on the third pairing (provided that he plays with enough toughness) but overmatched on the second pairing. I think the time has come to at least take a look at Stecher on the second pairing.

 

 

What guddy brings can't be measured by numbers. Opponents just play different when he'son the ice, timid if you will. You can also tell that he's a great leader in the room. I know most (including myself) have horvat labelled as the next captain, but guddy is an underdog candidate for me. 

 

I'm not an advanced stat fan at all but I'd bet you that webers aren't great either. But Montreal is far better when he is in the lineup. That's how i feel with gudbranson as well. 

 

Now I wasn't claiming that he can be as good as tanev or Edler, so i hope you don't think that. I'm claiming that there is no reason to trade him in my eyes. Worth every penny. 

 

Let me ask you this. Would you trade him to Edmonton for a mediocre return?

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2 hours ago, 73 Percent said:

 

I'm not an advanced stat fan at all but I'd bet you that webers aren't great either. But Montreal is far better when he is in the lineup. That's how i feel with gudbranson as well. 

 

 

Well except Weber actually puts up points. We cant say the same about Gudbranson

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16 minutes ago, iinatcc said:

Well except Weber actually puts up points. We cant say the same about Gudbranson

Points aren't an advanced stat.

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3 hours ago, 73 Percent said:

What guddy brings can't be measured by numbers. Opponents just play different when he'son the ice, timid if you will. You can also tell that he's a great leader in the room. I know most (including myself) have horvat labelled as the next captain, but guddy is an underdog candidate for me. 

 

I'm not an advanced stat fan at all but I'd bet you that webers aren't great either. But Montreal is far better when he is in the lineup. That's how i feel with gudbranson as well. 

 

Now I wasn't claiming that he can be as good as tanev or Edler, so i hope you don't think that. I'm claiming that there is no reason to trade him in my eyes. Worth every penny. 

 

Let me ask you this. Would you trade him to Edmonton for a mediocre return?

By play different on the ice do you mean one of the easiest defencemen to play against in the league? Hutton-Gudbranson are the WORST 5 on 5 pairing in hockey this season. No pairing has had more goals against. 

 

A mediocre player fetches you a mediocre return. 

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Just now, beni said:

By play different on the ice do you mean one of the easiest defencemen to play against in the league? Hutton-Gudbranson are the WORST 5 on 5 pairing in hockey this season. No pairing has had more goals against. 

 

A mediocre player fetches you a mediocre return. 

Are your sure about that?  Seems to me Florida and other teams (OTT) also have some issues with their bottom pairings.  Also it’s overall plus minus that should be considered, Hutton at least also provides a modicum or offense for a bottom pairing guy.  Plus Poilet and MDZ also play on our bottom pairing..

 

Definitely agree we should and could do better, quality or opposition takes into account as well (as in who are they defending against, and what are their zone starts like).  Chabot has a terrible plus minus for a guy that puts up so many points too for example, does that make him a terrible player?

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11 hours ago, burrardstreetbullies said:

green has the whole team on a leash. no retaliation and no rough hits or dirty plays.    which is the opposite hockey i thought green would bring to Vancouver... will have to change my name to the burrard street fairys soon

Green was just saying that he likes Edler this season because he is physical and when he hits guys they feel it.  He is asking for the bigger guys to be physical and make life miserable on the opponents to wear them down.

 

Some of these players are coming off major injuries.  Gudbranson had both shoulder and wrist surgery.  Responsibilities also change as player get older and are taking the next steps in their private lives.  Gudbranson was saying that he has decided to wear a visor because he is getting married.  

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44 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:

Points aren't an advanced stat.

Somehow they are still numbers. So Gudbranson doesn't have good regular stats and his advanced stats are not as good.

 

So what metrics does Gudbranson have to support the term and salary the Canucks are giving him?

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16 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Are your sure about that?  Seems to me Florida and other teams (OTT) also have some issues with their bottom pairings.  Also it’s overall plus minus that should be considered, Hutton at least also provides a modicum or offense for a bottom pairing guy.  Plus Poilet and MDZ also play on our bottom pairing..

 

Definitely agree we should and could do better, quality or opposition takes into account as well (as in who are they defending against, and what are their zone starts like).  Chabot has a terrible plus minus for a guy that puts up so many points too for example, does that make him a terrible player?

 

 

According to the stats The Athletics posted, yes they are the worst 5 on 5 pairing in the league. Ceci and Phaneuf are one spot ahead of them. 

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5 hours ago, 73 Percent said:

What guddy brings can't be measured by numbers. Opponents just play different when he'son the ice, timid if you will. You can also tell that he's a great leader in the room. I know most (including myself) have horvat labelled as the next captain, but guddy is an underdog candidate for me. 

 

I'm not an advanced stat fan at all but I'd bet you that webers aren't great either. But Montreal is far better when he is in the lineup. That's how i feel with gudbranson as well. 

 

Now I wasn't claiming that he can be as good as tanev or Edler, so i hope you don't think that. I'm claiming that there is no reason to trade him in my eyes. Worth every penny. 

 

Let me ask you this. Would you trade him to Edmonton for a mediocre return?

 

This is from last season.  Berkshire uses a video tracking software for those numbers.  That company has over 2/3rds of the teams under contract.  

 

There's a bit of a contradiction - if teams are intimidated by his physicality why would they target their zone entries against him.  With more and more teams now using video tracking softwares to game plan, it might not just be a coincidence.  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, iinatcc said:

Somehow they are still numbers. So Gudbranson doesn't have good regular stats and his advanced stats are not as good.

 

So what metrics does Gudbranson have to support the term and salary the Canucks are giving him?

Term and salary? You want me to justify 3yrs at 4 mill? No problem 

 

Leadership

Physicality

Youth

 

These are 3 things that he brings to the table. Believe it or not he's not as bad defensively as people make him seem. He's clearly a better option than pouliot MDZ and biega.  That makes him at MINIMUM  our number 5 defenseman. 

 

Let's look at some other contracts on our team 

 

Erikksson 6yrs at 6 mill with some no movement and no trades

 

Sutter 5 yrs at 4.375 with no trade clauses

 

With the emergence of hay beagle I would say gudbranson salary is far and away more justified than either of Sutter and erikksson.

 

Let's look at some other defenseman around the league

 

Andrew MacDonald 6 yrs at 5 mill

Andy Greene 5 yrs at 5 mill 

Marc stall 6 yrs at 5.7 mill

Danny dekeyser 6 yrs at 5 mill

Karl alzner 5 yrs at 4.625

 

This list goes on and on. I take gudbranson over any of these guys and many many more that make more than him for longer term. It's just time to accept that this is the cost of a defenseman of gudbransons calibre. 

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17 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:

Term and salary? You want me to justify 3yrs at 4 mill? No problem 

 

Leadership

Physicality

Youth

 

These are 3 things that he brings to the table. Believe it or not he's not as bad defensively as people make him seem. He's clearly a better option than pouliot MDZ and biega.  That makes him at MINIMUM  our number 5 defenseman. 

 

Let's look at some other contracts on our team 

 

Erikksson 6yrs at 6 mill with some no movement and no trades

 

Sutter 5 yrs at 4.375 with no trade clauses

 

With the emergence of hay beagle I would say gudbranson salary is far and away more justified than either of Sutter and erikksson.

 

Let's look at some other defenseman around the league

 

Andrew MacDonald 6 yrs at 5 mill

Andy Greene 5 yrs at 5 mill 

Marc stall 6 yrs at 5.7 mill

Danny dekeyser 6 yrs at 5 mill

Karl alzner 5 yrs at 4.625

 

This list goes on and on. I take gudbranson over any of these guys and many many more that make more than him for longer term. It's just time to accept that this is the cost of a defenseman of gudbransons calibre. 

Just because other guys have bad contracts doesn't mean we should be happy with Guddy. He doesn't bring much physicality to this team, he may have the ability to be physical but doesn't use it often. And his skating is awful, I could imagine Andre the giant skating by him with ease. The Gudbranson trade was terrible from the get go and now it's time to get some form of an asset back. It'd be nice if we could move one of Edler or Tanev too but it's hard to be proactive and rebuild when your owner is delusional. 

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5 minutes ago, ashlynnbrookefan said:

Just because other guys have bad contracts doesn't mean we should be happy with Guddy. He doesn't bring much physicality to this team, he may have the ability to be physical but doesn't use it often. And his skating is awful, I could imagine Andre the giant skating by him with ease. The Gudbranson trade was terrible from the get go and now it's time to get some form of an asset back. It'd be nice if we could move one of Edler or Tanev too but it's hard to be proactive and rebuild when your owner is delusional. 

But it's not just a couple of other guys of similar position and play it's like all of them. It's pretty much the going rate. 

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1 minute ago, 73 Percent said:

But it's not just a couple of other guys of similar position and play it's like all of them. It's pretty much the going rate. 

I don't have an issue with Guddys pay, it's his play. I wouldn't want him on the ice at anything because he's a massive liability at all times. It wouldn't be so bad if he was a mean, badass stay at home D man. But he's not. He's big and barks like a dog but it's beyond rare we see him bite. I just don't see his need in todays NHL. 

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Guddy is a modern day Harold Snepsts ...  the game is simply too quick now for these types of guys and combined with such poor break out passing.... forwards feast on these types of players....

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1 minute ago, kingofsurrey said:

Guddy is a modern day Harold Snepsts ...  the game is simply too quick now for these types of guys and combined with such poor break out passing.... forwards feast on these types of players....

Guddy is like Derian Hatcher post lockout. He would have been great in the mid 90's when you didn't need to skate and could get away with murder. Now that you actually need to play the game, skate, make outlet passes, think quickly. The old style doesn't work on the back end. Gudbranson is a dinosaur at 27, he should already be extinct. 

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56 minutes ago, beni said:

 

 

According to the stats The Athletics posted, yes they are the worst 5 on 5 pairing in the league. Ceci and Phaneuf are one spot ahead of them. 

We don’t have anything like Gudbranson on the team, to me he’s our Dana Murzyn except a much better skater and fighter.  It’s one article, doesn’t make it true but believe what you want.

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