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The Utica crisis, and the inability to retain/ develope our top end draft picks


cuporbust

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Is there a "crisis"??

 

To be truthful, I don't follow Utica enough to know but am really hardpressed to see that word being applicable.  And the article posted seems to support that.  Seems it's just overblown to some degree and that people get too excited over prospects who may or may not work out over time and expect them to simply do so.  I think the crisis is that people panic too easily and that has a ripple effect.  

 

It's not as easy as plug in and go...development comes with hard work and a willingness to progress.  If Dahlen felt he was good to go and wasn't working on elements of his game that could expand on that, can coaches be faulted for trying?  In order to be a great NHL player, you have to be good at all elements of the game or at least willing to improve on areas of weakness.  If someone feels their game is being hampered by those trying to work on that, it's blaming others.  If they nit pick as you come off the ice it's your job to prove them wrong, not declare they are.

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When did Palmu, a 6th rounder, became a top end prospect?  Did I miss something.

 

Tryamkin refused to play in the AHL!!!  How is that the Comets' fault???

 

Go around the league and probably 20+ teams will have the same observations, comments, as the Canucks.  We are not alone and we are not an isolated case. 

 

With that said...our case is not that bad either.  First, because of our lack of depth and prospects from 2011-17, guys like Bo, EP, Boeser, Stetcher, Virtanen barely saw any AHL (could add Gaudette to the mix also).    Teams like Tampa and Nashville, have the luxury of having top end prospect play and dominate in the AHL because their NHL team is so strong and can be patient.  Our depth is so bad, that our best prospects make the jump rightaway in the NHL, skewing the numbers for Utica.  Juolevi played junior and Finland before being injured this year.  Again how is that Utica's fault.   We also drafted players like Boeser, Hughes and Lockwood who spent their developping years in the NCAA instead of the AHL.  If our AHL team would produced 2-3 star players every year, we would be a Dynasty.  Can't turn them all into Wayne Gretzky.

 

I would agree that our AHL development is average, but it has stabilized since moving to Utica.  Our stint in Chicago did not help our development system.  But again, our prospect since 2013 have been pretty thin, can't turn water into wine.

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1 hour ago, Stelar said:

Chances are only 3-4 of these will realistically have NHL careers

Outside of Hughes who is a high first rounder most of those picks statistically had a less than 20% chance from the get go. If we get 4-5 we're doing well there. 

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5 minutes ago, Gnarcore said:

Outside of Hughes who is a high first rounder most of those picks statistically had a less than 20% chance from the get go. If we get 4-5 we're doing well there. 

Yup, I was going to say 2-3 but then the trolls would desend upon me to claim the so and so, and so and so were locks. 

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The concern to me is we are now seeing the impact of Bennings decision to plug the age gap that they spoke about when they took over from Gillis. Granlund, Vey, Clendenning - all of those deals are now an issue. Can't change the past but it would be really great to have Forsling and Andersson available to this team right now for example. 

 

Honestly, I think the "crisis in Utica" simply is that we all assumed beginning in 2014 that there would be results from drafting and developing (especially by 2019). Boeser, Pettersson, Gaudette are playing. Virtanen has not met expectations (yes this season was certainly moving in the right direction). Demko is to be determined. Hughes is coming. Juolevi is still a huge unknown. And when you look at who is ready in Utica the answer is pretty much no one. I don't think that is a development issue - it is a selection issue (partly based on who was chosen but more based on what was given away in 2014, 2015 and 2016). 

 

Many other posters have already said it - outside the top 10 to 15 of the first round not many players make it. It really hurts when you see that the Canucks should have and could have used a pick given up to get a player that could now be developed and contributing - especially when the filler players in exchange for those picks provided nothing. Throw in that the roster is still plugged with tweeners and I think the crisis is simply pent up fan frustration trying find one thing to blame. 

 

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I think the problem with Utica is what people’s perception of what it was going to be this year.  Some thought that the team was going to be filled with all our prospects and that they would all be dominating.  Dahlen, Lind, Palmu, Gadj, OJ, Demko, Gaudette, etc.. It doesn’t work that way.  It’s the same in the NHL, you need experienced vets to help shelter the youth development. It takes time to develop these kids.  The Boesers and EP’s are a rarity. 

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1 hour ago, Pears said:

Honestly Dahlen is a bit overrated because of his friendship with Pettersson. He wanted out because he wasn’t being gifted minutes. End of story. 

Ottawa scouts had him pegged as 3rd line ceiling.


Canucks fans and media are the ones that tagged 1st line future core star on the kid LOL.


Saw him in Penticton last fall.  He looked like a one way soft floater with the puck, and without,  umm.. inept is the word I want to use.  Yeah, only 2 games, in a non intense showcase format. Still, others showed up and worked their asses off (like MacEwen).  Character is that one 'intangible' that spreads far and wide to hilight facets of what we the fans see, and Dahlen is showing less and less as time goes on, especially now that we have parted ways.  This whole social media dump is childish beyond words.  First thing a man should learn when growing into one, is that it simply does not matter what others say to, or about you.  Him getting upset at the "bullying" shows me just how soft these millennials , and also all of those gasping at all of this childish nonsense too, really are.  Also, Dahlen coming out and calling Jim a liar by contradicting the entire pre TDL timeline also kind of reeks of immature revisionism too.  Going to say that I am glad we dumped him.  We don't need this nonsense in the team.  And no, I didn't contact, or comment to or about Dahlen anywhere outside of this board.  I read twitter, but I do not have an account.

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1 minute ago, Stelar said:

Yup, I was going to say 2-3 but then the trolls would desend upon me to claim the so and so, and so and so were locks. 

Lets look at this list.  

 

Lind

Jasek

MacEwen  - solid chance he's a 3rd or 4th line guy based on performance this year.  On his toughness and willingness to battle alone I like this kid a lot. 

Gadjovich

Juolevi - will be an NHL defenseman. Maybe not what we hoped but will be a steady 3-4 guy....unless injuries....kid has had no luck there.  Even then his game was growing well. 

Eliot

Chatfield

Hughes - a lock. 

Karlsson

Brassard

Lockwood

Madden - I'd say he makes it. Pedigree is there and is showing very, very well this year. 

Rathbone - having a hell of a year. I'd say 30ish % chance at this point. 

Woo - I think he'll be a bottom 3 defender in the NHL.  Having a great draft + 1 and love his attitude. I see him putting in the work.  

Utenen

Theissen

 

If we can get those guys and maybe 1 to 2 more we're doing well. From comments I've seen Lind is taking things very seriously to learn the game he needs to play in the NHL.  That's a solid sign. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, stawns said:

There is no evidence that stockpiling picks, outside of the first round, equates success in any way.

In just a few minutes of my own research, I found quite a bit of evidence that your statement is completely false:

 

1) The following Tampa players/prospects were all acquired with picks they traded for:

- Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall, from Detroit as part of Kyle Quincey trade)

- Mathieu Joseph (4th rounder from Nate Thompson trade)

- Anthony Cirelli (extra 3rd rounder to trade down from a late first to a high 2nd, Mitchell Stephens being the first pick)

- Libor Hajek (pick from trading away DeAngelo once determined he was not in future plans), used to land Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller

- Boris Katchouk (one of the picks from trading away Brett Connolly)

 

2) The 2016 2nd that Chicago got for Andrew Shaw was used to pick Alex Debrincat.

 

3) By taking on Brooks Laich's contract, Toronto got Connor Carrick and the 2nd used to select Carl Grundstrom. Grundstrom was a big part of the package to get Muzzin.

 

4) San Jose doesn't acquire picks too often. But the 5th they got from NYI for Dan Boyle's rights was used to select Rudolfs Balcers, who was part of the return for Erik Karlsson.

 

5) One of the 2nds St. Louis got from Calgary for Brian Elliott was used to draft Jordan Kyrou. The 2nd they got in the Perron/Pajaarvi swap was used to select Ivan Barbashev. And the 2nd they got from trading Brad Boyes was used to select Joel Edmundson.

 

6) In 2009, Nashville sells to add a few extra picks in rounds 2-4. Although most do not pan out, they find Craig Smith (98th overall) and Mattias Ekholm (102nd) in the 4th round. They don't have one of those guys (likely Ekholm) without stockpiling picks.

 

 

...Again, this is just from spending a little time myself poking around in the draft records. 

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3 minutes ago, D-Money said:

In just a few minutes of my own research, I found quite a bit of evidence that your statement is completely false:

 

1) The following Tampa players/prospects were all acquired with picks they traded for:

- Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall, from Detroit as part of Kyle Quincey trade)

- Mathieu Joseph (4th rounder from Nate Thompson trade)

- Anthony Cirelli (extra 3rd rounder to trade down from a late first to a high 2nd, Mitchell Stephens being the first pick)

- Libor Hajek (pick from trading away DeAngelo once determined he was not in future plans), used to land Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller

- Boris Katchouk (one of the picks from trading away Brett Connolly)

 

2) The 2016 2nd that Chicago got for Andrew Shaw was used to pick Alex Debrincat.

 

3) By taking on Brooks Laich's contract, Toronto got Connor Carrick and the 2nd used to select Carl Grundstrom. Grundstrom was a big part of the package to get Muzzin.

 

4) San Jose doesn't acquire picks too often. But the 5th they got from NYI for Dan Boyle's rights was used to select Rudolfs Balcers, who was part of the return for Erik Karlsson.

 

5) One of the 2nds St. Louis got from Calgary for Brian Elliott was used to draft Jordan Kyrou. The 2nd they got in the Perron/Pajaarvi swap was used to select Ivan Barbashev. And the 2nd they got from trading Brad Boyes was used to select Joel Edmundson.

 

6) In 2009, Nashville sells to add a few extra picks in rounds 2-4. Although most do not pan out, they find Craig Smith (98th overall) and Mattias Ekholm (102nd) in the 4th round. They don't have one of those guys (likely Ekholm) without stockpiling picks.

 

 

...Again, this is just from spending a little time myself poking around in the draft records. 

OK, now list all the ones that didn't pan out. Adding picks obviously adds value but you're going to find yourself overvaluing those picks if you focus on the success stories .  One thing you don't want to do is treat a 10 dollar bill like a 100 dollar bill. 

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1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

"Why isn't anyone taking Kole Lind?"

 

...because he only has 2 goals in his 46 game AHL career so far.

 

Or....is it because of the coaching and development in Utica?

 

 

Or is it because JB's biggest flaw is his arrogance at the draft?  

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14 minutes ago, D-Money said:

In just a few minutes of my own research, I found quite a bit of evidence that your statement is completely false:

 

1) The following Tampa players/prospects were all acquired with picks they traded for:

- Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall, from Detroit as part of Kyle Quincey trade)

- Mathieu Joseph (4th rounder from Nate Thompson trade)

- Anthony Cirelli (extra 3rd rounder to trade down from a late first to a high 2nd, Mitchell Stephens being the first pick)

- Libor Hajek (pick from trading away DeAngelo once determined he was not in future plans), used to land Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller

- Boris Katchouk (one of the picks from trading away Brett Connolly)

 

2) The 2016 2nd that Chicago got for Andrew Shaw was used to pick Alex Debrincat.

 

3) By taking on Brooks Laich's contract, Toronto got Connor Carrick and the 2nd used to select Carl Grundstrom. Grundstrom was a big part of the package to get Muzzin.

 

4) San Jose doesn't acquire picks too often. But the 5th they got from NYI for Dan Boyle's rights was used to select Rudolfs Balcers, who was part of the return for Erik Karlsson.

 

5) One of the 2nds St. Louis got from Calgary for Brian Elliott was used to draft Jordan Kyrou. The 2nd they got in the Perron/Pajaarvi swap was used to select Ivan Barbashev. And the 2nd they got from trading Brad Boyes was used to select Joel Edmundson.

 

6) In 2009, Nashville sells to add a few extra picks in rounds 2-4. Although most do not pan out, they find Craig Smith (98th overall) and Mattias Ekholm (102nd) in the 4th round. They don't have one of those guys (likely Ekholm) without stockpiling picks.

 

 

...Again, this is just from spending a little time myself poking around in the draft records. 

The argument isn't that there aren't quality players to be found in the later rounds, it's that the practice of stockpiling picks doesn't guarantee finding those gems.  The odds are plain to see: you're much more likely to end up with nothing if all you focus on is "stockpiling" non-first rounders. 

 

I don't like the "tank" approach either, but at least you can see that top picks produce top players.  

 

The "depth stockpile" feels like selling your house and car to buy lottery tickets approach.

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23 minutes ago, D-Money said:

In just a few minutes of my own research, I found quite a bit of evidence that your statement is completely false:

 

1) The following Tampa players/prospects were all acquired with picks they traded for:

- Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall, from Detroit as part of Kyle Quincey trade)

- Mathieu Joseph (4th rounder from Nate Thompson trade)

- Anthony Cirelli (extra 3rd rounder to trade down from a late first to a high 2nd, Mitchell Stephens being the first pick)

- Libor Hajek (pick from trading away DeAngelo once determined he was not in future plans), used to land Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller

- Boris Katchouk (one of the picks from trading away Brett Connolly)

 

2) The 2016 2nd that Chicago got for Andrew Shaw was used to pick Alex Debrincat.

 

3) By taking on Brooks Laich's contract, Toronto got Connor Carrick and the 2nd used to select Carl Grundstrom. Grundstrom was a big part of the package to get Muzzin.

 

4) San Jose doesn't acquire picks too often. But the 5th they got from NYI for Dan Boyle's rights was used to select Rudolfs Balcers, who was part of the return for Erik Karlsson.

 

5) One of the 2nds St. Louis got from Calgary for Brian Elliott was used to draft Jordan Kyrou. The 2nd they got in the Perron/Pajaarvi swap was used to select Ivan Barbashev. And the 2nd they got from trading Brad Boyes was used to select Joel Edmundson.

 

6) In 2009, Nashville sells to add a few extra picks in rounds 2-4. Although most do not pan out, they find Craig Smith (98th overall) and Mattias Ekholm (102nd) in the 4th round. They don't have one of those guys (likely Ekholm) without stockpiling picks.

 

 

...Again, this is just from spending a little time myself poking around in the draft records. 

To add, I think the fifth round pick we used to draft Gaudette, wasn't ours.  It just makes sense that having more picks (especially in the first three rounds) increases the odds a team will get lucky with one of those young guys.  

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Most of the players that otherwise would have developed in Utica were promoted to the Canucks as a result of dire need, or they simply were ready to play in the NHL. (Horvat, Boeser, Hutton, Stecher, Petterson, Virtanen and Gaudette). The canucks were a bad team, and desparately needed these players to play right away.

 

There are good stories as well. Players that developed in Utica: Brendan Gaunce, Zack MacEwen, Guillaume Brisebois, Ashton Sautner, Alex Biega, Jalen Chatfield and Thatcher Demko.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

The argument isn't that there aren't quality players to be found in the later rounds, it's that the practice of stockpiling picks doesn't guarantee finding those gems.  The odds are plain to see: you're much more likely to end up with nothing if all you focus on is "stockpiling" non-first rounders. 

 

I don't like the "tank" approach either, but at least you can see that top picks produce top players.  

 

The "depth stockpile" feels like selling your house and car to buy lottery tickets approach.

In your analogy you are assuming the owner has only one house and one car, and both are newer.  I think we are talking about moving older guys out for picks, or guys (who may be younger) that have a couple younger guys coming up to battle for his place, and they are as good, if not better.  So, extending your analogy, we would be selling an older house and car, because we have several more newer ones, that are better.  

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19 minutes ago, BlastPast said:

OK, now list all the ones that didn't pan out. Adding picks obviously adds value but you're going to find yourself overvaluing those picks if you focus on the success stories .  One thing you don't want to do is treat a 10 dollar bill like a 100 dollar bill. 

 

1 minute ago, ilduce39 said:

The argument isn't that there aren't quality players to be found in the later rounds, it's that the practice of stockpiling picks doesn't guarantee finding those gems.  The odds are plain to see: you're much more likely to end up with nothing if all you focus on is "stockpiling" non-first rounders. 

 

I don't like the "tank" approach either, but at least you can see that top picks produce top players.  

 

The "depth stockpile" feels like selling your house and car to buy lottery tickets approach.

Of course they don't all pan out. But you need picks to even have a chance. And the more you have, the more chances you have. You make it sound like Benning should just trade all his own post-1st round picks at every draft for more sure things (even if they are sure plugs), because why try?

 

It's not like the vets we held onto the past few years gave us any discernible advantage. We still sucked. I listed a number of wins on some of the better teams in the league. They added picks, and used them well. Why can't we?

 

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Just now, Sergei Shirokov said:

Most of the players that otherwise would have developed in Utica were promoted to the Canucks as a result of dire need, or they simply were ready to play in the NHL. (Horvat, Boeser, Hutton, Stecher, Petterson, Virtanen and Gaudette). The canucks were a bad team, and desparately needed these players to play right away.

 

There are good stories as well. Players that developed in Utica: Brendan Gaunce, Zack MacEwen, Guillaume Brisebois, Ashton Sautner, Alex Biega, Jalen Chatfield and Thatcher Demko.

 

 

totally agree 100%.  But with the extra picks those names would double in total.  That gives us a better chance to find guys, who are really good, right?

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