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Why its a mistake to spend huge $$$ on a big name Defenseman in 2019


*Buzzsaw*

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Everyone knows there are three UFA D's available this summer.

 

Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Jake Gardiner.

 

Of those, one is a legitimate #1 superstar... Karlsson.  The other two are top 4 pairing... maybe #2's.

 

But they all come with asterisks...  all have lost significant numbers of games to injury... with Gardiner and Karlsson having recent serious problems.

 

They all come with significant CAP hits... a Karlsson signing would seriously limit the Canucks ability to pay their existing stars fair contracts and almost eliminate the possibility of any major free agent forwards signings.

 

Karlsson:  A 12 million per year CAP hit, for a player who is trending down in both the number of games played and production.  Karlsson has missed 20 games this season, and he seriously underperformed the first 20 games at the start of the season due to nagging injuries.  Right now he is out due to groin problems... but the real question is his ankle... which required extensive surgery in 2017 with the removal of half his ankle bone and the insertion of an artificial tendon:

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-says-doctors-removed-half-ankle-bone/

 

Gardiner:  A likely at least 7 million dollar CAP hit.  This is a player who brings decent offensive numbers, but who is only average in his own zone... but he is the closest thing to a #1 in Toronto.  But he is also suffering from a undisclosed back injury which has kept him out of the Leafs lineup... and most concerning is there are persistent rumours he may need surgery.  Potential back surgery is never a 'sure' thing... especially in cases where the player tries to heal the problem with down time... that indicates spinal issues.

 

Myers:  Currently a 5.5 million dollar CAP hit... likely much higher for the new contract... likely 7 million at least, maybe much higher due to the fact the Jets have said they do not want to trade him and will try to resign.   There is the potential for a bidding war inflating his price.  Probably the least concerning player re. injuries... as he is generally healthy now.  However he did miss 71 games back in 2016/2017 and has only had two full seasons without injury in his 11 year career.  Also, like Karlsson, he is getting older, his production is trending down, and the chances of him being injured again are on the increase.

 

Looking objectively at all three options, it is clear there are questions about all of them.  Two are potentially seriously damaged goods, the third is no superstar but will bring a significant cost at limited benefit.

 

For all the above reasons, I don't think it is worthwhile for Benning to consider a serious effort to acquire these players... especially Karlsson.  Karlsson made sense for San Jose as they are a team who are rapidly falling out of their Stanley Cup window... they need to get the job done NOW.  Whereas the Canucks are still a team very much in development... and bringing Karlsson in when the team is not ready to make a run at the Cup is shortsighted and may result in longterm harm due to the CAP hit he will bring.  The other two are just not good enough to spend a lot of money on... especially Gardiner... who has the injury asterisk hanging over his head. 

 

The only one who is potentially worth considering is Myers... but in my opinion he brings nothing which Tryamkin can't also provide... at significantly less expense.

 

The Canucks would do better to try to acquire young D prospects in the off season instead of signing older free agents.  The team does have trade bait in Sutter and some of the other older players on the team.

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6 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

Everyone knows there are three UFA D's available this summer.

 

Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Jake Gardiner.

 

Of those, one is a legitimate #1 superstar... Karlsson.  The other two are top 4 pairing... maybe #2's.

 

But they all come with asterisks...  all have lost significant numbers of games to injury... with Gardiner and Karlsson having recent serious problems.

 

They all come with significant CAP hits... a Karlsson signing would seriously limit the Canucks ability to pay their existing stars fair contracts and almost eliminate the possibility of any major free agent forwards signings.

 

Karlsson:  A 12 million per year CAP hit, for a player who is trending down in both the number of games played and production.  Karlsson has missed 20 games this season, and he seriously underperformed the first 20 games at the start of the season due to nagging injuries.  Right now he is out due to groin problems... but the real question is his ankle... which required extensive surgery in 2017 with the removal of half his ankle bone and the insertion of an artificial tendon:

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-karlsson-says-doctors-removed-half-ankle-bone/

 

Gardiner:  A likely at least 7 million dollar CAP hit.  This is a player who brings decent offensive numbers, but who is only average in his own zone... but he is the closest thing to a #1 in Toronto.  But he is also suffering from a undisclosed back injury which has kept him out of the Leafs lineup... and most concerning is there are persistent rumours he may need surgery.  Potential back surgery is never a 'sure' thing... especially in cases where the player tries to heal the problem with down time... that indicates spinal issues.

 

Myers:  Currently a 5.5 million dollar CAP hit... likely much higher for the new contract... likely 7 million at least, maybe much higher due to the fact the Jets have said they do not want to trade him and will try to resign.   There is the potential for a bidding war inflating his price.  Probably the least concerning player re. injuries... as he is generally healthy now.  However he did miss 71 games back in 2016/2017 and has only had two full seasons without injury in his 11 year career.  Also, like Karlsson, he is getting older, his production is trending down, and the chances of him being injured again are on the increase.

 

Looking objectively at all three options, it is clear there are questions about all of them.  Two are potentially seriously damaged goods, the third is no superstar but will bring a significant cost at limited benefit.

 

For all the above reasons, I don't think it is worthwhile for Benning to consider a serious effort to acquire these players... especially Karlsson.  Karlsson made sense for San Jose as they are a team who are rapidly falling out of their Stanley Cup window... they need to get the job done NOW.  Whereas the Canucks are still a team very much in development... and bringing Karlsson in when the team is not ready to make a run at the Cup is shortsighted and may result in longterm harm due to the CAP hit he will bring.  The other two are just not good enough to spend a lot of money on... especially Gardiner... who has the injury asterisk hanging over his head. 

 

The only one who is potentially worth considering is Myers... but in my opinion he brings nothing which Tryamkin can't also provide... at significantly less expense.

 

The Canucks would do better to try to acquire young D prospects in the off season instead of signing older free agents.  The team does have trade bait in Sutter and some of the other older players on the team.

But there's no guarantee that Tryamkin is going to come back. 

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Just now, Ghostsof1915 said:

But there's no guarantee that Tryamkin is going to come back. 

You are right... but that doesn't change the fact Myers is not really a fit.

 

Better to look for younger prospects who will fit in with the current youth movement in the team.

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6 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

You are right... but that doesn't change the fact Myers is not really a fit.

 

Better to look for younger prospects who will fit in with the current youth movement in the team.

No, you rebuild via multiple routes and not putting all your eggs in one basket. Rebuilding takes a mix of Drafting and Devloping, FA signings, and Trades. Loading up only on prospects is just as foolish as building a team entirely through FA. 

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3 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

You are right... but that doesn't change the fact Myers is not really a fit.

 

Better to look for younger prospects who will fit in with the current youth movement in the team.

Honestly, I don't think Karlsson will test UFA. He has a new family and recently suffered a lot of on-ice and off-ice drama. SJ is a fresh, new place for him and I just don't see him upsetting his current situation. I could be wrong of course.

 

That means Myers and Gardiner are left.

 

I remember for many years Gardiner was wanted to be traded by Toronto fans. I remember his brutal performance in the playoffs one year. I do think signing him will be a huge mistake, especially due to the fact that he won't come cheap. IMO, he's pretty overrated. PASS.

 

Myers is 29. He doesn't fit the Canucks plan.

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2 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

Honestly, I don't think Karlsson will test UFA. He has a new family and recently suffered a lot of on-ice and off-ice drama. SJ is a fresh, new place for him and I just don't see him upsetting his current situation. I could be wrong of course.

 

That means Myers and Gardiner are left.

 

I remember for many years Gardiner was wanted to be traded by Toronto fans. I remember his brutal performance in the playoffs one year. I do think signing him will be a huge mistake, especially due to the fact that he won't come cheap. IMO, he's pretty overrated. PASS.

 

Myers is 29. He doesn't fit the Canucks plan.

Karlsson will hit FA imo, if he was going to stay in SJ it would have been done by now. His comments paired with his conversations with Doughty and market value lead me to being very glad we weren't the team to trade for him. His goal no matter who had him is to go to FA this off season. 

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5 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

You are right... but that doesn't change the fact Myers is not really a fit.

 

Better to look for younger prospects who will fit in with the current youth movement in the team.

I would agree with you if it wasn't  for the fact that our only legit top4 dmen are very injury prone and we will most likely be bringing in a couple of rookie dmen next year. If what our team looks like when Tanev and Edler were out this year is any indication, we cannot afford to not have any kind of veteran presence out of our line up for any extended period of time.

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Yeah I think the Canucks would be wise to sit this year out on FA defenseman. Most of these guys seem one dimensional and the only guys worth getting are too expensive unless they sign on a short term deal which is unlikely. The 2020 list looks much better and Hughes/Juolevi should be a good upgrade next year. 

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12 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

Karlsson will hit FA imo, if he was going to stay in SJ it would have been done by now. His comments paired with his conversations with Doughty and market value lead me to being very glad we weren't the team to trade for him. His goal no matter who had him is to go to FA this off season. 

Well, to counter that, one could argue that Karlsson is "focussed" on the playoffs, which SJ is well-poised to be positioned for. If Karlsson does amazing there, he would be worth even more. I think he could maximize his worth by standing put from negotiations for now - what's the hurry?. Unless SJ is really tight on the cap (which I don't have information on right now), chances are, they will approach Karlsson about an extension.

 

If I remember correctly, if Karlsson re-signs, SJ has to cough up a pick I believe. (Was it a 1st? Gonna have to look it up), so SJ might be wary about signing him too quickly.

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34 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

You are right... but that doesn't change the fact Myers is not really a fit.

 

Better to look for younger prospects who will fit in with the current youth movement in the team.

I don't think you're far off on the risks associated with the big names, but acquiring ELC or RFA level young defensemen is also very hard to do, you don't see that much anymore. NCAA free agency is the place to get those now, and the draft of course. 

 

For me, I like the idea of just going after Stralman. He won't cost anything like the big 3 and he and Edler would be a great shut down pair. Hughes and Tanev can be paired, and then Hutty-Stecher. Just adding Stralman will bring a lot of stability and also let Hughes be mentored by Tanev. 

 

When the inevitable injuries arrive, thats when we can slot in some of our younger d in the system. 

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1 minute ago, Dazzle said:

Well, to counter that, one could argue that Karlsson is "focussed" on the playoffs, which SJ is well-poised to be positioned for. If Karlsson does amazing there, he would be worth even more. I think he could maximize his worth by standing put from negotiations from now. Unless SJ is really tight on the cap (which I don't have information on right now), chances are, they will approach Karlsson about an extension.

 

If I remember correctly, if Karlsson signs, SJ has to cough up a pick I believe. (Was it a 1st? Gonna have to look it up)

If Karlsson wins the Conn Smythe in playoffs and San Jose wins the Cup, his price will be $13 million.

 

I doubt San Jose and Karlsson are seriously negotiating now...  they are all waiting to see what happens in the post season.

 

Giving up a 1st rounder is a significant cost.  I think San Jose saw their acquisition of Karlsson essentially as a rental for this years playoff.

 

That is why they are not rushing him back into the lineup... they want him healthy for the playoffs.

 

Basically Doug Wilson took the worthwhile gamble of trading for him because the Sharks are a team which is in its window... almost all vets with their Stars mostly in their last years in the league.

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i see us needing a right side d-man to complement hughes, maybe that is woo, if they want to sign an older d-man, sign edler. woo might be the heir apparent to tanev. we have older forwards and defensemen, now we need 25 year old d-men with upside. but not huge salaries. 

knowing cdc, if JB signs one of these high priced players they want and they don’t work out, they won’t be saying, well i was wrong. they will cry that JB is a dumb gm. 

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2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think you're far off on the risks associated with the big names, but acquiring ELC or RFA level young defensemen is also very hard to do, you don't see that much anymore. NCAA free agency is the place to get those now, and the draft of course. 

 

For me, I like the idea of just going after Stralman. He won't cost anything like the big 3 and he and Edler would be a great shut down pair. Hughes and Tanev can be paired, and then Hutty-Stecher. Just adding Stralman will bring a lot of stability and also let Hughes be mentored by Tanev. 

 

When the inevitable injuries arrive, thats when we can slot in some of our younger d in the system. 

Stralman is a little cheaper, current contract is 4.25 million per, but he is also older at 32.  He will be 33 in August.  He will want a minimum 3 year contract... likely at 5 million. 

 

Do we want to pay him $5 million per for age 33, 34, 35?

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1 minute ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

Stralman is a little cheaper, current contract is 4.25 million per, but he is also older at 32.  He will be 33 in August.  He will want a minimum 3 year contract... likely at 5 million. 

 

Do we want to pay him $5 million per for age 33, 34, 35?

I think we do. Our upcoming d's are very young. 2-3 more years with dependable veterans like Edler and Stralman are what they will need to learn to succeed imo. Plus I don't think we'll see a Tanev extension, so he's gone after next season anyway by trade or by letting him walk. 

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3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I think we do. Our upcoming d's are very young. 2-3 more years with dependable veterans like Edler and Stralman are what they will need to learn to succeed imo. Plus I don't think we'll see a Tanev extension, so he's gone after next season anyway by trade or by letting him walk. 

I would disagree the Canucks will let Tanev walk... he is an excellent defenseman when he is healthy.

 

Better to sign, then trade if there is an good return.

 

I say they sign Tanev and they lay down the law to him re. shot blocking... i.e.  avoid the '...block at all costs' style he currently practices and change it to "... block when you aren't going to be injured...' style of play.  Plus they will work on getting him really good custom protected boots this off season.

 

 

 

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I really don't want Myers, as he doesn't really control play from the blueline and is more of a passenger on a deep Jets blueline. He's a good d-man, but he won't be someone we can build around on defense and won't be worth the money he'll get.

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26 minutes ago, *Buzzsaw* said:

If Karlsson wins the Conn Smythe in playoffs and San Jose wins the Cup, his price will be $13 million.

 

I doubt San Jose and Karlsson are seriously negotiating now...  they are all waiting to see what happens in the post season.

 

Giving up a 1st rounder is a significant cost.  I think San Jose saw their acquisition of Karlsson essentially as a rental for this years playoff.

 

That is why they are not rushing him back into the lineup... they want him healthy for the playoffs.

 

Basically Doug Wilson took the worthwhile gamble of trading for him because the Sharks are a team which is in its window... almost all vets with their Stars mostly in their last years in the league.

Keep in mind Karlsson can sign an 8 year deal in SJ and only 7 anywhere else too. Even if he takes $12 mil in SJ that puts him $5 mil ahead still in SJ taking “less than market value”

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