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Why the Canucks shouldn't make the playoffs (not about draft)

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15 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Players don't play for draft position.  Period.

They play to perform their best - at least, that's what pros do.

 

There's nothing that can be done if this group decides it's going to continue winning games.

 

The team is a M.A.S.H. unit.

It's a replacement roster with a blueline made up of a #8 in the #3 slot - and three AHLers behind him - two rookies and one replacement level placeholder.

 

If this team can't "tank" - then it's out of everyone's hands.  Blame Green for getting too much out of a repeatedly depleted roster.

Blame Benning for too much serviceable depth.

Whatever.   Find a way to consider Benning a failure for both not yet contending and not sucking badly enough.

 

I personally can't be bothered to care.  If they win, I'm pleased for them, and enjoy watching competitive hockey.

If they lose and win up losing the lottery again - that sounds about right.

 

Anyway - I'm nothing but impressed by what this team has done throughout the year.

To start - the relatively healthy group - could play with anyone - and were in the heart of it.

When they were insanely depleted - they went on a 12 game skid - but never let up their effort.

They came back from that and pushed themselves back into playoff contending.

They fell back again as the injuries and deadline deals further shallowed the roster.

And yet, even with this half-roster, they're once again pushing into contention.

 

Don't hear much whining about Green's "systems" lately, do we?

The guy deserves to be in the Jack Adams conversation.

And the few healthy guys -  like Horvat, Motte, Stecher - have been simply outstanding all along - and I'd add some kudos to LE, who has played almost exclusive shutdown this season, at 38.4% ozone starts for the season (11 goals and 27 pts is not that bad in that role/context).

Good post old news.  I think the same way about tanking, players do it, and neither do coaches, their careers and future earnings depend on production and overall play.  Markstroms playing like at least a top ten goalie most nights, and the rest of what we have is playing better then we should expect given the roster...

 

Might as well just enjoy the hockey.

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If it's "not about the draft" - it makes literally zero - perhaps less than zero - sense.

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38 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

To play devil's advocate they did have that taste when they made it to the 2nd round 3 years ago. They have missed playoffs the 2 years since.

I was thinking moreso about pre-McD. The organization's culture was already a losing one by the time he got there.

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1 hour ago, stawns said:

ferland can be a legit top 6 winger and sheriff.  That's what he does, and he did it well riding shotgum for JG in Calgary.

When he is healthy and at his best I totally agree. That playoff series was 3 years ago though, he was younger and coming off of only playing less than 60 games combined with AHL/NHL. He was fresher and hungrier. I am not underselling what he could potentially bring to the table. I just think it would be very risky to go hard after him in the off season. He has battled concussions and UBIs all year this year, which will make it tough for him to keep up a physical style of play and likely affect his motivation to play that way.

 

He has 17G, 19A (62 games) playing with very skilled players and has been ice cold for the last month or so. I don't think that production is worth the money he will likely get or be asking for. Maybe @Rob_Zepp can give us some input on his physical play with the canes this year and if his style of play has changed following his injuries.

 

I think the risk is too high for us to regret tying up that amount of cap in him.

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1 hour ago, oldnews said:

If it's "not about the draft" - it makes literally zero - perhaps less than zero - sense.

bro my whole point was not wanting any of our star players being injured, I do not care about tanking. Would you like to go into the summer knowing a few more of our players have had to undergo surgery? Obviously, this may seem exaggerated, however, it's clear that this team has been getting hurt left and right this year, and the intensity of playoff hockey may not be the best course for development. I hope they get a bit more physically stronger than go into the playoffs.

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I disagree about toughness. The reason I don’t want them to make the playoffs is I don’t want management to think they’re further ahead than they actually are and start making moves to complete immediately rather than build for the future, a la Edmonton.

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5 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Making the playoff with a roster not ready for serious CUP play is great for the vanity of some fans who measure success in 4 and out. Dropping 4 or 5 draft positions is another bonus I guess. 4 and out provides lots of ammo for the group who cry for Benning's or Green's firing. Benning cn't win. 4 and out equals his inability to ice a playoff team and missing playoffs forces him to pull off another stellar draft session. Sorry but drafting at #6 instead of #12 does make a difference. Not just in the 1st Round but in the 2nd & 3rd as well

 

If not playing 4 playoff games crushes the young core of this group then JB made bigger mistakes than some on here have accused him of. Another solid draft should give the Canucks another 2 possible NHL'ers. Next year this club should make playoffs and the pieces should be in place for development towards serious CUP contention within 2 - 3 years. Time lines are just that, all about time passing towards a goal. Fans have to be comfortable about that.

 

2014 playoffs against Calgary showed a lack of physicality in the org that Benning tried to address but still has work to do. The team is getting bigger. Playoffs are not regular season. As much hot air that has been spent BS'ing around it the format will not change. It is open season on any perceived weakness in a club. In the Calgary series the Flamers went after Tanev and the Twins. Odds were strong that if Tanev was knocked out the d-core would fold. Whether it is EP40 or Quinn Hughes they will be targeted and the NHL will not protect them. Addressing this is one of the developmental aspects that have to be addressed over the next 2 - 3 years. Many want Ferland signed which is OK but I suspect the price and term will be to high for the basic job required.  

On the first point you are so right.  I think we tend to overlook that fact. That it is not just the first round that all teams that land ahead of us get first dibs. It is all 7 rounds. If you think about that, it is quite a significant aspect when looking at your total draft haul. And how has that affected the Canucks through the many years of sliding down the draft order?

In all fairness, I think that that is too much of an advantage for those teams picking higher. Perhaps it should be that after the first round, (maybe after the second) all teams not making the playoffs that season throw their names into a bucket and they draw for each round's top order after that.

 
The second point, is that no one is saying that NOT playing them would "crush them"  The OP was saying the opposite. That playing playoff games would crush the young core, which I find even more ridiculous. 15 teams end up losing. I'd hope it doesn't "crush" all their young players.

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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Good post old news.  I think the same way about tanking, players do it, and neither do coaches, their careers and future earnings depend on production and overall play.  Markstroms playing like at least a top ten goalie most nights, and the rest of what we have is playing better then we should expect given the roster...

 

Might as well just enjoy the hockey.

Totally agree with both of you

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1 hour ago, magicman12 said:

Are you saying we can't even tank properly 

Just hilarious!  Well said.

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3 hours ago, Jester13 said:

Take Edmonton as an example. Do you think they were better off never making the playoffs with their youth, or do you think one small taste of a chance to win the cup would've done wonders for their confidence?

They did make the playoffs, look at the confindence there exploding with.,, oh that’s right there terrible. Wow it really helped. 

 

 

And if your talking about  pre McDavid then your cherry picking to prove your point. 

It didn’t help McDavid but it would have help the other group...huh. 

Edited by combover

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13 hours ago, ButterBean said:

This is nothing we haven’t seen before. Can’t rely on the refs to win games. 

You can have **** officiating but still have the better team advance.  If Willie D quit rolling his lines fairly equally and give the Sedins additional ice time (they were playing well that season & in that series) we might’ve prevailed in spite of the refs.

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9 minutes ago, combover said:

They did make the playoffs, look at the confindence there exploding with.,, oh that’s right there terrible. Wow it really helped. 

 

 

And if your talking about  pre McDavid then your cherry picking to prove your point. 

It didn’t help McDavid but it would have help the other group...huh. 

After they miraculously made the finals they missed the playoffs for something like 10 straight years. I'm not cherry picking anything. I'm making a point that you aren't seeming to grasp, and that's fine. With all those years of high picks and top prospects without making the playoffs, they created a culture of losing, which still persists to this day in their McD era. 

 

The Canucks are creating a culture of competing and winning, and they're progressing way faster than the Oilers have. 

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5 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Making the playoff with a roster not ready for serious CUP play is great for the vanity of some fans who measure success in 4 and out. Dropping 4 or 5 draft positions is another bonus I guess. 4 and out provides lots of ammo for the group who cry for Benning's or Green's firing. Benning cn't win. 4 and out equals his inability to ice a playoff team and missing playoffs forces him to pull off another stellar draft session. Sorry but drafting at #6 instead of #12 does make a difference. Not just in the 1st Round but in the 2nd & 3rd as well. 

 

If not playing 4 playoff games crushes the young core of this group then JB made bigger mistakes than some on here have accused him of. Another solid draft should give the Canucks another 2 possible NHL'ers. Next year this club should make playoffs and the pieces should be in place for development towards serious CUP contention within 2 - 3 years. Time lines are just that, all about time passing towards a goal. Fans have to be comfortable about that.

 

2014 playoffs against Calgary showed a lack of physicality in the org that Benning tried to address but still has work to do. The team is getting bigger. Playoffs are not regular season. As much hot air that has been spent BS'ing around it the format will not change. It is open season on any perceived weakness in a club. In the Calgary series the Flamers went after Tanev and the Twins. Odds were strong that if Tanev was knocked out the d-core would fold. Whether it is EP40 or Quinn Hughes they will be targeted and the NHL will not protect them. Addressing this is one of the developmental aspects that have to be addressed over the next 2 - 3 years. Many want Ferland signed which is OK but I suspect the price and term will be to high for the basic job required.  

Plus ten.  This covers basically everything.  About Benning trying to address the team toughness, you’d think a 6’5” promising young defenseman that can throw with the best of them would be enough, but he wasn’t and he didn’t enough (and became a whipping boy) ... and he did the right thing for our team by trading him despite what he gave up for him (which really wasn’t enough to get whiny about, Crosby could make Motte into a PPGer too) ... but still it was something and Pearson is definitely not enough to fix it.  Don’t think Ferland will be enough either, and will not come close to living up to whatever his cap hit is so stay away.  McEwen should get promoted full-time for awhile to see if he’s got what it takes to play in the NHL and would hope Green plays him (in a playoff setting even more so).   Find others like him and trade for them, a defenseman is ideal as he is on the ice more often and can do more police work.  Three or four guys like that would make the world of difference, and teams wouldn’t look forward to playing us ever.

 

It also has a lot more to do with setting the tone with the group, it doesn’t matter who’s on the team if they fight for each other and together teams will take notice and shy away.  Right now we are almost pillow soft, we need more nasty. 

 

On draft spot, if I had to pick making the playoffs and the possibility of an upset (however slim) or a 12th overall I’d pick playoffs every time.   I don’t think we’d lose 4 in a row, Markstrom is playing too well right now for that.  It would be a good test for our team, and a chance to galvanize over something that may or may not happen (guys running out stars for example).   Nowadays it’s not like it used to be, 8th seeds have actually won a cup recently...thanks mostly to Quick.  

 

Between a 7th and playoffs id take the pick though. 

 

Aside from the OTT game, every game we’ve won recently is like a playoff game in intent, as each team is either fighting for their playoff aspirations by making it or getting a better position, the reffing might be different but that’s about it.  If we continue the streak and make it somehow whomever we play shouldn’t take us lightly, we’d be one of the hottest teams in the league and already battle tested.    

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1 hour ago, Boest-er said:

bro my whole point was not wanting any of our star players being injured, I do not care about tanking. Would you like to go into the summer knowing a few more of our players have had to undergo surgery? Obviously, this may seem exaggerated, however, it's clear that this team has been getting hurt left and right this year, and the intensity of playoff hockey may not be the best course for development. I hope they get a bit more physically stronger than go into the playoffs.

It's a valid concern, but playes live to play - you can't 'preserve' them from injuries by underachieving (if they were in fact good enough to make the playoffs).

 

I agree there is a need to add toughness/heaviness to the roster - and that in the longer run it could benefit players like EP to have a longer rest/recovery this offseason after a pretty challenging rookie grind, in which he's been injured.

 

But a lack of toughness doesn't necessarily lead to injuries either - the majority of which are simply bad fn luck.  Ideally the team could add some toughness, particularly to EP's wing, in the offseason - but at this point a guy like Leivo isn't that light/soft.  

 

I'm not sure the management group approached the deadline as a time to get 'playoff ready' - I think the opposite was probably the case - ie. that they were shopping a veteran defenseman (Edler=no waive, Tanev injured and unshoppable - pretty much fell to Gud by default).   They also jumped at the opportunity to get a pick for a veteran (MDZ) - and regardless of what people might think of Schenn - some people laughably fluffing him as if he's as good or better than Gudbranson - I think it's pretty clear he was a contract they took back and was earmarked for Utica depth.   The contingency - losing Tanev, that got him in the lineup is not one that you expect to overcome with this blueline and make a run at a playoff race.   All unexpected - pleasant surprises as results - but overachievements given the rosters Green is working with. 

That deadline certainly didn't make the club tougher or more playoff ready, but I think they were looknig to the offseason more so than the remainder of this season.  Realistically, no GM would want to head into a playoff race with Biega as a #3, Schenn in the lineup with a pair of rookies....but Green and this group have proven to be highly resilient and are getting results against the grain.....

Regardless of how well they are performing, it will be a very difficult task to leapfrog three teams down the stretch, even if they are in what appears to be striking distance  - so it's probably all a moot point.

Edited by oldnews

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Serious question, do teams that have "enforcers" and teams that "stand up for each other" never experience their top players getting hit?

 

This honestly sounds as whiny as when Edmonton was complaining that McDavid was being checked too well and couldn't "showcase" himself.

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29 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Serious question, do teams that have "enforcers" and teams that "stand up for each other" never experience their top players getting hit?

 

This honestly sounds as whiny as when Edmonton was complaining that McDavid was being checked too well and couldn't "showcase" himself.

Or teams without them......look at how soft that Leafs lineup is (wadr to them) - is Hyman their 'tough guy'?

Kadri with 31 pm is 2nd on that team.... Tavares 3rd....Andreas Johnson 4th....and on and on....Gardiner 6th....

Is Muzzin their 'tough guy'/enforcer?

 

Funny how mum-the-word is when it comes to the #proper-rebuild over there, but where exactly is their 'pushback'? 

Is that a problem for them?  What will they do if teams start running their "smurfs"?  Or has the league sent out the salt-peter and put teams on notice that their stars are untouchable, or Shamaplan will make a call to his buddies at the DOPeS?  The good people over there will take care of it for them?

Edited by oldnews
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2 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

When he is healthy and at his best I totally agree. That playoff series was 3 years ago though, he was younger and coming off of only playing less than 60 games combined with AHL/NHL. He was fresher and hungrier. I am not underselling what he could potentially bring to the table. I just think it would be very risky to go hard after him in the off season. He has battled concussions and UBIs all year this year, which will make it tough for him to keep up a physical style of play and likely affect his motivation to play that way.

 

He has 17G, 19A (62 games) playing with very skilled players and has been ice cold for the last month or so. I don't think that production is worth the money he will likely get or be asking for. Maybe @Rob_Zepp can give us some input on his physical play with the canes this year and if his style of play has changed following his injuries.

 

I think the risk is too high for us to regret tying up that amount of cap in him.

So a 23ish goal pace over 82 games and I'd bet he'd easily hit 25 with Petey.  When you consider everything else he brings to the table, he's be a difference maker in Van, imo.  If the term was good, the money would be worthwhile.

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16 minutes ago, stawns said:

So a 23ish goal pace over 82 games and I'd bet he'd easily hit 25 with Petey.  When you consider everything else he brings to the table, he's be a difference maker in Van, imo.  If the term was good, the money would be worthwhile.

Ferland, Virtanen, Motte, Rousell... could be a pretty relentless forecheck coming at the opposition.  

 

I haven’t put a lot of thought into specifically who I’d want to add this offseason beyond a top 4 RHD but Ferland would be a very nice piece. 

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38 minutes ago, stawns said:

So a 23ish goal pace over 82 games and I'd bet he'd easily hit 25 with Petey.  When you consider everything else he brings to the table, he's be a difference maker in Van, imo.  If the term was good, the money would be worthwhile.

I'm not sure it's safe to assume Ferland would produce more elsewhere.

 

His linemates (Aho and Teravainen) have scored 146 pts this year - ie playing with two guys producing at the rate EP is .... Ferland's 36 in 62 lags considerably behind their scoring rate.

 

6 of Ferland's 17 goals are powerplay goals = 11 even strength goals in 62 games with a pair of point per game linemates.

 

I like Ferland a lot - but not at the rumoured types of terms it would apparently take = that's just too much of a premium for grit and hitting.....as was the pricetag of giving up Lindholm - who has 77 points himself... I imagine Calgary jumps at that deal all over again.

 

I look at a player like the Canes' Jordan Martinook - scoring 15 goals....177 hits....50 takeaways....better underlying numbers than Ferland - and more versatile / able to kill penalties - and I'm not looking at him as a top 6 winger, but as a guy that brings comparables on ice - and was signed for a couple million.

 

I think the thing about Ferland - his bargain days - as a bargain to the team who holds his rights - are over.  You might be fortunate to get market value outcomes out of him for the early, or hopefully majority of his contract - but I don't think I'd take the risk.

 

Instead I'd take the challenge of finding your own emerging Ferland comparable - as opposed to buying high on a UFA who has a nice set of qualities he brings - but already cost the Canes an extreme asset premium for what he brings - and is now about to cost a significant term.

 

I think I'd be looking at alternatives personally - or players that bring a slightly different skillset but still add some weight, two way game, and mobility/forecheck to EP's line.

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