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canucksnihilist

Next 5 years and prospects....

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Ok we all are super happy this team is making strides - and should be challenging for a playoff spot next year.

 

however we all know that - let’s analyze what the difficulties are in the coming 5 years.  And what you think they are.  And what you think we should do about it.

 

Problem:  the prospect cupboard in Utica is bare.  We have been lucky in that he last few years (3 counting the upcoming year assuming QH makes the team - I would say he is a lock) we haven’t needed Utica to develop anyone.  Players have gone straight to the bigs.  But unless we win a top-3 lottery spot(15% chance now?) this is coming to an end.  

 

History - this is just my take, correct me if you think otherwise, im not trying to make 100% accurate statements but looking at trends. I’m not saying I know this better than anyone else:

 

1. MG drafted poorly and developed poorly and left virtually no top or mid level prospects in the system. 

 

2. JB took over and was forced to get a team to compete for the playoffs with the Sedins.  He did that.  Playoffs first year.  And then that plan continued for a few years.   But the way to do that was to trade picks for active players - who although still relatively young had a lower ceiling than draft picks.  And go heavy into FA.   We can say this strat worked for the first year but then we had a few years of failures.

 

3. Last year/2 of the Sedins the team switched tactics and started a more traditional rebuild.  But the team still had no mid level prospects being developed on the farm - so FA was still the focus.

 

4. The team hasn’t developed anyone in Utica of any real quality.  It seems all the good prospects and not playing at Utica.  This means the team has zero depth.  So the team  still goes to FA  for mid level players - who are older and in the long run aren’t as good as young hungry talented players.  Stress “long run”.  The issue is there aren’t enough quality draft picks making it to Utica to develop any depth.  All those players people are keen on should most of the time just be depth call ups - most prospects don’t make the bigs.

 

5 years:  it will take years to develop any real depth in Utica.  And to actually use players from Utica on the team.  The team had to make this the next focus - as the aged FA are great but the last part of contracts really hurts the team - not saying there was much choice so far...

 

All the talk about Gadjovich and woo and all the players that were great 2nd round picks - they need to be in Utica building a winning environment there.   Without this - and the ability to call up a decent defense man for instance if you get an injury in a playoff run, at least one that can potentially even help the team and not have a huge drop off - the team can never win a cup.

 

Problem:  I’m worried that young players and picks will continue to be traded away - to augment the budding core we see - and this development depth that we could have had (if we weren’t trying to win with the last few years of the Sedins) will never arrive.  It’s not too late to start building it - but the clock is close to midnight, we need that depth NOW cause the next core is ready to compete NOW.

 

the problem of always being injured and using that as an excuse for failure - is not acceptable.  Every team is injured all the time.  The only way to combat this is depth on the farm.  Real depth.  That you don’t trade away cause you have glaring holes on your big league team.  

 

So... prove me wrong, PLEASE!!!   The real proof will be if we see great strides are made in Utica.

 

/peace

 

 

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I think the problems in Utica are not as great as generally thought on this board.

The two D prospects that were both looking the most ready were OJ and Chatfield who both missed most of the year.   The goal tending department was a disaster too with all the injuries.

We were still able to bring up Sautner and Brisebois who have not looked out of place.  These are guys developed in Utica.

The prime forward that was supposed to be in Utica was Gaudette.  He ended up spending most of the year here.  

Disappointing what happened with Dahlen.  Not sure how much is on the Canucks vs him.

Lind and Gadjo are second round pics who started D+2 season and had a lot of development to do.  Gadjo clearly had a big shortcoming in his game and if they took this year for physical development to really work on his foot speed then I am okay with it, as long as we see progress next year.  I thought Lind's game would transfer better to AHL but again looking at growth not absolute success as a 20 year old just starting his pro career.  Remember second rounders only have about a 20% chance of becoming NHLers.

Utica has suffered due to a lack of high end talent, because our high end youth is in the NHL, and injuries at both the NHL and AHL level.  

Next year the D already looks to be improving with the addition of Teves and Rafferty.  Good battles in the goaltending position with Dipietro and Kielly.  Will see if Lind and Gadjo continue to develop and turn into AHL regulars next year.  Not sure which other forward prospects we may see in the AHL next year.

This years plan was not a bad one.  Starting with Gaudette, Dahlen, Lind, Palmu and Gadjo.  Very little experience but some good talent at F complemented with some solid AHL vets.  Turns out most of the kids weren't ready.  A D built around OJ, Chatfield, Brisebois and Sautner.  With Demko, who was thought to be a candidate for AHL MVP, we should have been very competitive.  All of these things fell apart though.  Mostly for injuries but some because of youth.

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Here is another thing that will help, if it happens...……….

 

If Benning goes out and signs 2 above average UFA's...………...it will strengthen our club

 

but what else it does is fill in those holes, that our young guys would go into...………..so again, it creates a log jam and keeps guys down

 

It would be nice at some point that we did not have to count on adding our D+1 year players directly into the NHL

 

And could give them that time to adjust and develop into the pro game...….

 

I have been a Canuck fan since before they were in the NHL...……...and I can tell you

 

This is an exciting time...…..I personally can not remember so much young skill on our team ever

 

It just needs time to mature...………..

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Utica hasn't developed "quality"? what about Demko? Gaudette? Jake? Saunter? Bresbois? and probably Juolevi once we finally get to have a look.

 

You're also ignoring the potential of MacEwan, Lind and Gadjovich, its too soon to call them busts or that the cupboard is "bare" while they are still in the system.

 

We also have DiPieto, Woo, Rathbone and whoever we pick this year, and the new crop of college guys we just got all set to make appearances in Utica in the next 1 or 2 seasons.

 

Not sure what your expectations are, to turn all non-1st rounders into 1st rounders? Utica isn't there to turn every player into a superstar. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, N7Nucks said:

Why do we NEED to see players develop through Utica? I mean, is it so wrong players are coming from the SHL, College, etc. straight to the NHL? Do we absolutely need players to come through Utica to prove whatever point you want proven? And even then, we've had a few players go from Utica to the NHL. One being Demko, Biega was a guy that came through Utica. Sautner and Brisebois look solid and very well could be depth pieces on the roster next season. Further back you have Jake Virtanen and Jacob Markstrom. 

 

This obsession with Utica developing players is getting a tad out of hand. Not to mention people keep moving the goal posts so those that do develop there don't count. "Well Virtanen and Markstrom don't count cause they only needed one season". Utica has provided prospects for the main roster. People just want to focus on the few that fizzle out. I know people are feeling like the sky is falling cause a bunch of rookies are struggling in the A this season but lets give em a couple seasons at least before we worry about Utica.

 

Players of real quality don't normally go through the AHL anymore. This is the new NHL where kids are ready sooner and sooner and other leagues are catching up at developing NHL ready players. 

[/end thread]

 

Seriously this is getting ridiculous.

 

464.jpg

Edited by aGENT
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Lets just play it smart and not lose some good players for nothing to the expansion (Seattle),soon.

 

Lets continue to stock through the LOTTO DRAFT,and if we ever get lucky at that stupid thing, we are rebuilding quicker than a lot of teams.

There are teams that have 40 year olds playing for them,and these are the teams that are going to drop quickly in the standings,while our young group will just be coming into their prime.

A stud defense man and a few more snipers through the draft and AWAY WE GO.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Utica hasn't developed "quality"? what about Demko? Gaudette? Jake? Saunter? Bresbois? and probably Juolevi once we finally get to have a look.

 

You're also ignoring the potential of MacEwan, Lind and Gadjovich, its too soon to call them busts or that the cupboard is "bare" while they are still in the system.

 

We also have DiPieto, Woo, Rathbone and whoever we pick this year, and the new crop of college guys we just got all set to make appearances in Utica in the next 1 or 2 seasons.

 

Not sure what your expectations are, to turn all non-1st rounders into 1st rounders? Utica isn't there to turn every player into a superstar. 

 

 

Demko isn't lights out right now. Gaudette Spent more time on the Canucks than in Utica. Sutner and Brescois are not even as good as Biega yet. And why is it that our European players don't seem to make it there? Every name that has been brought up are North American prospects, any Europeans we had, ended up getting shipped out or are playing in another league. Coincidence?

Edited by smokes
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The lack of depth outside the nhl means they have one choice. UFA market. They will dump tons of cash at it. That's my fear. Not accumulating extra picks is beginning to catch up with them. 

Will they be willing to step back and be patient for a couple more years? 

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remember Will Lockwood? Sure we could be deeper - but  there's a few more coming in this off season. I like  JB and crew picking up some of these college kids - one never know who will pan out. Keep building on defense - sooner or later we will find a fit

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2 hours ago, canucksnihilist said:

 

4. The team hasn’t developed anyone in Utica of any real quality.  It seems all the good prospects and not playing at Utica.  This means the team has zero depth. 

 

5 years:  it will take years to develop any real depth in Utica.  And to actually use players from Utica on the team.

 

This is where your post crashes hard imo.

 

When  you make fairly embellished overstatements like this - it's hard for people to take it seriously. 

As others have already pointed out, referring to players like Demko, Gaudette, etc as "no real quality' suggests you have pie-in-the-sky expectations - a seriously unrealistic perspective of what consitutes quality - or are simply uninformed about the Canucks prospects.  

 

It also presumes that the recent drafts will produce nothing - and ignores the reality - that some of the higher end picks, particularly those out of college - or those that develop in European leagues - don't develop in and through Utica.

 

Secondly - no - it does not take years to develop AHL depth.   AHL rosters fluctuate a lot from year to year.   The AHL is a development league in any event - the point is to strip it of it's young depth - on route to the NHL - that is a best case scenario - it is there to feed the parent club - which it's done a fine job of imo.  Not only have there been a healthy amount of prospects but the Canucks head coach also 'developed' through Utica on his NHL path.

 

I think there's far more alarmism than necessary here.    The team has far more young depth than you suggest - and it's far too early to assume that players like Madden, Utunen, etc will amount to nothing.

 

Stay the course - keep at minimum a regular complement of picks each draft - and their trajectory is fine.

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40 minutes ago, smokes said:

Demko isn't lights out right now. Gaudette Spent more time on the Canucks than in Utica. Sutner and Brescois are not even as good as Biega yet. And why is it that our European players don't seem to make it there? Every name that has been brought up are North American prospects, any Europeans we had, ended up getting shipped out or are playing in another league. Coincidence?

He's had 2, maybe 3, bad games that have largely effected his overall numbers but the other 5 to 6 games he's been stellar. That's pretty good for a rookie that's been dealing with injuries this season. He's faced 30+ shots in 6 of his 8 starts. 

 

Buffalo: 36 saves, 39 shots .923%

Arizona: 19 saves, 24 shots .792%

Edmonton: 31 saves, 34 shots .912%

Vegas: 16 saves, 17 shots .941% 

Chicago: 29 saves, 31 shots .935%

Columbus: 28 saves, 33 shots .848%

Los Angeles: 37 saves, 39 shots .949%.

San Jose: 33 saves, 35 shots .943%

 

For a rookie goalie dealing with injuries while playing behind our porous defense (also dealing with injuries) I'd say that's pretty good if not lights out. The only real blemish is that Arizona game. Every other game he's facing a lot of rubber and/or playing a really tough team.

 

And the European point has been touched on. Those players prefer to develop in their own leagues (Liiga, SHL whatever) or were long shot prospects anyway. People crying about Palmu need to realize he was a 5'7 20 year old when we drafted him in the 6th round. Hardly a prospect that had legit NHL chances. Juolevi would have graduated outta Utica this year very likely if not for another injury setback. Zhukenov was a 4th round longshot. Dahlen wanted out and for all we know he's got character issues (personally don't believe it to be the case but we flat out don't know) and other than that we had no real notable Euro players that had legit NHL chances. Gunnarsson was an overage 5th rounder. Jasek is in the A right now and looks pretty okay, he was a late round pick anyway so him fizzling isn't worth crying about anyway.

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Keep in mind that the AHL is not the priority of winning but rather, if they are ready for NHL, they should be promoted in expense of the loss of depth in AHL during the season and we replenish our depth every year when players have graduated from junior to AHL.  The logic of this is to make sure that prospects are ready for the NHL, even fi they are the best player on Utica and a loss of that could potential jeopardy their season in AHL and that's what it is supposed to be that way even if your cupboard is so bare, it's not possible to build a depth because there are 31, soon to be 32 teams competing for their young players on average.    The AHL has a veterans rule in place so therefore, it's not possible to build a depth either, you can only play 5 veterans at a time for a game.   That is the intention so that the NHL would agree to have an affiliation with the AHL team so that they would be able to develop their own prospects.   Without this veterans rule in place, their young prospects would have a hard time cracking in the AHL roster and be forced to play in ECHL.  

 

Remember, Chicago Wolves was one of Canucks affiliation team and they were so frustrated that they wouldn't give Canucks prospects some ice time in that they went and bought their own AHL team as they have their own AHL players/contract and in Chicago, they were so young enough without a NHL contract that they are not considered a veterans and yet giving out more ice time for them than Canucks' prospects.   Now that they have their own team, they are in judge of making sure that their own prospects are ready for AHL rather than ruin their development in their control rather than without any control.  For example: Lind were not playing much due to injury and not playing well, the same for other prospects.   Even Dahlen were complaining about it too in that they traded him away.   I do not blame the Canucks for doing this because the NHL is far tougher league than the AHL and if they can't cut it in AHL, they will not be able to perform in the NHL.   I think that they rather to be in control of their own development than Chicago Wolves did as they had no control over their development.  

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1 hour ago, smokes said:

Demko isn't lights out right now. Gaudette Spent more time on the Canucks than in Utica. Sutner and Brescois are not even as good as Biega yet. And why is it that our European players don't seem to make it there? Every name that has been brought up are North American prospects, any Europeans we had, ended up getting shipped out or are playing in another league. Coincidence?

I disagree on the comp's with Biega, both Sautner and Breisbois will beat him out for a job next seson, and possibly Schenn as well. 

 

I think if you're seeking a reason that many of the Euro players didn't make it, is look at what rounds they were taken in and what that means for probability of success. 

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2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Utica hasn't developed "quality"? what about Demko? Gaudette? Jake? Saunter? Bresbois? and probably Juolevi once we finally get to have a look.

 

You're also ignoring the potential of MacEwan, Lind and Gadjovich, its too soon to call them busts or that the cupboard is "bare" while they are still in the system.

 

We also have Madden, DiPieto, Woo, Rathbone and whoever we pick this year, and the new crop of college guys we just got all set to make appearances in Utica in the next 1 or 2 seasons.

Not sure what your expectations are, to turn all non-1st rounders into 1st rounders? Utica isn't there to turn every player into a superstar. 

 

 

Im disappointed in ya Jimmy... You didn't mention one of my favourite prospects. 

image.thumb.png.9ae0577630e4a6a3c94b6874a2ac57a3.png

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No one is suggesting that there is nothing coming but it takes players like Lind and others several years to be ready. Or I will say show whether they will make the grade. We have all of our top prospects at the NHL. If Lind is to make it he has probably got 2 years in the A yet to go. Woo will spend a couple in the A.(one for sure) There is literally nothing for next year. So that means they have one choice  and that is the UFA market. Maybe a low level trade.

Because we are drafting around tenth we will not land a player who is up to the NHL this year. (unless we win one of the top spots on Tuesday ).

 

Tell me one prospect who you think will make an impact at the NHL level next year. (That is not on the team now) I am not sold on OJ but he is all I could come up with.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, N7Nucks said:

He's had 2, maybe 3, bad games that have largely effected his overall numbers but the other 5 to 6 games he's been stellar. That's pretty good for a rookie that's been dealing with injuries this season. He's faced 30+ shots in 6 of his 8 starts. 

 

Buffalo: 36 saves, 39 shots .923%

Arizona: 19 saves, 24 shots .792%

Edmonton: 31 saves, 34 shots .912%

Vegas: 16 saves, 17 shots .941% 

Chicago: 29 saves, 31 shots .935%

Columbus: 28 saves, 33 shots .848%

Los Angeles: 37 saves, 39 shots .949%.

San Jose: 33 saves, 35 shots .943%

 

For a rookie goalie dealing with injuries while playing behind our porous defense (also dealing with injuries) I'd say that's pretty good if not lights out. The only real blemish is that Arizona game. Every other game he's facing a lot of rubber and/or playing a really tough team.

 

And the European point has been touched on. Those players prefer to develop in their own leagues (Liiga, SHL whatever) or were long shot prospects anyway. People crying about Palmu need to realize he was a 5'7 20 year old when we drafted him in the 6th round. Hardly a prospect that had legit NHL chances. Juolevi would have graduated outta Utica this year very likely if not for another injury setback. Zhukenov was a 4th round longshot. Dahlen wanted out and for all we know he's got character issues (personally don't believe it to be the case but we flat out don't know) and other than that we had no real notable Euro players that had legit NHL chances. Gunnarsson was an overage 5th rounder. Jasek is in the A right now and looks pretty okay, he was a late round pick anyway so him fizzling isn't worth crying about anyway.

I did not even read your whole post and I agreed with it...…..great numbers and great points!

 

Take the best one and the worst one out as none conforming and you get a Save percentage of,,,,,,,,,,,,173 saves out of 189 = .915 Save Percentage

 

That is exactly the same Save percentage as (22) Tukka Rusk .915 % and exactly .007 from top 10 in the league......that is pretty damn good for a rookie

 

With a defense like ours!

Edited by janisahockeynut
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