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Generational.EP40

Brian Burke on changing the Draft Lottery Format

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Posted (edited)

 

First off, I don’t agree with all of what Burkie said but he did mention some good points:

 

 

> I agree that teams should not be jumping 8-12 or whatever spots into the top3. The lottery is there to prevent purposeful failure; that doesn’t mean middle of the pack teams should be rewarded, it should be more focused to the bottom end teams. He talks about having the bottom5 teams play for the lottery, I could live with that but would also be open to 7 teams which he suggest and no more than that. This way, the deserving bad teams are the only ones in position to potentially move up. Not borderline playoff teams which has been the case the past couple years that has become the norm when it was supposed to be the exception. Clearly the current system is flawed and already failed. “This is not an isolated occurrence, it happens with regularity. Let the worst teams pick the best players. Minimize the effect of the lottery to the smallest number of teams you have to have which is 5. Maybe it’s 7, but it ain’t 15!”

 

> I agree with him that there needs to be a way to prevent systematic failure in consecutive years. Aka the Oilers or more recently the Devils having 1st overall picks 2 out of 3 years. He kind of goes to an extreme which I’m not for, saying if you pick 1st then for the next 3 years you’re moved out of lottery contention with best being you can do 4th. Imo something like kicked out of top3 for just the following year would be fairer instead of 3 years. And maybe even add the year after, that team is still kicked out of 1st overall but would be able to play for 2nd or 3rd overall. This way if it’s 3 years down the road and the team is really still that bad, they can’t get 2 1st overall picks in 3 years but instead could get 1 1st overall, 1 non top3 pick, and then a non top1 pick. Get rid of the 1st overall pick 2 out of 3 years. “New Jersey just did it again for the 2nd time in 3 years. Is that right, is that fair? Not for me it’s not. 4th is still a good pick. I’m not saying you go all the way to the back of the line, it’s not saying you don’t get a 1st round pick. But you can’t pick in the top3 [if you win 1st overall year prior]”.

Edited by Generational.EP40
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Posted (edited)

His arguments are kind of contradictory.   First he says, worst teams pick the best players.   Then he says, if your the worst teams a few years in a row, then you not allowed to get the best players?

 

Well that's not fair either....McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin dont come around every year.   New Jersey won the lottery when it was Hischier/Patrick.   That was one of the worst top 2 overall prospect in the past decade.  Therefore, since all draft class are not equal....it wouldn't be fair for a team to get 1st overall on a bad year and be denied 1st overall when McDavid or Matthews shows up.

 

Everything about the NHL, playoffs format, schedule, cap ceiling, cap floor, is design to bring parity around the league.  Rich teams are prevented from spending crazy  money to "buy" a championship like the Yankees, Red Sox, Lakers can do.  With this new lottery that's the only rules that goes against parity.  Meanings, the worst teams won't necessarily get the best pick/player.

 

The past lottery gave more chances to bad teams to get 1st overall and the Oilers benefitted from that.  Yes, the Devils now won the lottery twice, but the odds are made to that's its much more random than it used to be.

 

I'm pretty pissed how bad luck the Canucks had the past few years, but I prefer this method anyways.  Heck, if the Canucks had won the lottery in the 2017 draft, they would have probably picked Hischier or Patrick instead of Pettersson. 

Edited by timberz21
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I sort of agree with Burkie.

 

If i recall correctly, in the original version of the NHL draft lottery, any team that missed the playoffs could win, but winning would mean they only jumped a few spots.  Maybe they could re-introduce that.  Win the lottery, jump up 5 spots, or something like that along those lines.

 

At the same time, I would be OK with a rule that says you can't win the top pick in consecutive years.  I'm OK if a team wins it two out of three.  If you suck so bad that you are eligible to win the top spot two out of three years, then maybe you deserve it.

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I personally think all the GMs should be put in a giant hamster ball arena.  Last man standing picks first.

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Thanks to the bloody Oilers tanking every year, the lottery is now a sham. If it wasn't, they would exploit it on TSN and get the viewers to tune in. Make a big deal out of it. All in the name of ratings.

 

50 years and the Canucks have never won the #1. NJ just won it twice in the last three years. This method is not working.

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What will occur first:

 

- Canucks win the Stanley Cup

- Canucks get the #1

 

(trick question: they won't win a Cup without a #1)

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Thanks to the bloody Oilers tanking every year, the lottery is now a sham. If it wasn't, they would exploit it on TSN and get the viewers to tune in. Make a big deal out of it. All in the name of ratings.

 

50 years and the Canucks have never won the #1. NJ just won it twice in the last three years. This method is not working.

So you would have preferred winning the lottery in 2017 and picking Hishicer instead of Pettersson instead?  It's pure luck...sometime bad luck brings good luck ;)

Edited by timberz21
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Teams that have a #1 pick on the roster:

 

COL - McKinnon 

CGY - n/a

WPG - n/a

STL - n/a

NSH - n/a

DAL - n/a

SJ - Thornton

VGK - n/a

BOS - n/a

TOR - Matthews and Tavares

WAS - Ovechkin

CAR - n/a

CBJ - n/a

TB - Stamkos

NYI - n/a

PIT - Crosby

 

Guaranteed, one of the teams with a name next to it will win the Cup this year.

 

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I think each teams front office should participate in Boat races to determine the draft order.

 

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8 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Teams that have a #1 pick on the roster:

 

COL - McKinnon 

CGY - n/a

WPG - n/a

STL - n/a

NSH - n/a

DAL - n/a

SJ - Thornton

VGK - n/a

BOS - n/a

TOR - Matthews and Tavares

WAS - Ovechkin

CAR - n/a

CBJ - n/a

TB - Stamkos

NYI - n/a

PIT - Crosby

 

Guaranteed, one of the teams with a name next to it will win the Cup this year.

 

Wasn't fluery 1stOA as well? 

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22 minutes ago, Master Higgins said:

Wasn't fluery 1stOA as well? 

Yep

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I  am not sure there is a simple solution that works for most people. If you limit the chance at #1 to the bottom 5 teams or something, then tanking happens from 4th to 8th from the bottom as teams know they can't make the playoffs and try to get in on #1

Maybe there is some complicated formula that rewards teams with a higher % at moving up a few spots based on... # of wins against each other, or # of wins in final 20 games, or something? Something that would encourage teams a bit to win down the stretch? 

 

I would also say that any team that has had 2 top 3 selections in the previous 3 years cannot pick better than 4th in the subsequent year

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1 hour ago, xereau said:

I personally think all the GMs should be put in a giant hamster ball arena.  Last man standing picks first.

Bergevin would smash them every year

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I’ve been saying the same thing since before the lottery, when the oilers made lastplace  the seasons goal, 

 

Option A 

bottom 5 team equal lottery odds complete draft order. Of the top 5

only one 1st over in 3years. Best you can do is second then 

Only 2 top 3 picks in three years the 5 pick is then that teams for two season if they end in the bottom 5. 

 

 

Option B 

equal odds in a lottery that determines the complete bottom 10 draft order.

Done LIVE by a third party. 

If you can’t pick players in the top ten in today’s drafts that should become difference makers then you shouldn’t have your job.

11-31 draft in  reverse order of standings. 

 

I agree with Burke it needs to be changed to help the teams that actually need help but still punish the ones that do like the oilers and can’t seem to manage talent. 

 

Sad part is the rule changed when Vancouver needed help and the rules will most likely change when Vancouver won’t. 

 

 

 

 

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I agree with a lottery.

 

I don't agree with three our current separate draws for 1st 2knd & 3rd. Particularly good teams, Jersey for example was probably a play off team with Hall in the line up. Three draws is 3 chances to move up. I also agree a team just barely dropping out of the play off's should have a shot at picks 1-3. Move up? Fine...

 

15 teams don't make the post season. Last place team gets 15 balls, 2knd last 14, etc.,15th place 1.

 

When you win you can only move up 5 spots. Leave the remaining balls in the drum & go again. The odds of a truly poor team dropping 2 or 3 places is almost negligible.

 

As soon as first is decided the balance is on reverse order standings like the rest of the draft. 

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23 minutes ago, Stelar said:

Bergevin would smash them every year

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I like this format.  

 

Canucks have been unlucky but it'll balance out over the long run. 

 

Maybe Canucks jump feom 13th to 1st and get lafrenier in 2020 

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