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Joe Biden Accepts Democratic Nomination for POTUS

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12 minutes ago, canuckistani said:

Biden has zero chance of beating Trump. He simply does not have the personality to go up against a bombastic, sound-byte generating psychological bully. 

He'll win the same way Kenney did.

 

He wasn't Notley, and Biden isn't Trump

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2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

He'll win the same way Kenney did.

 

He wasn't Notley, and Biden isn't Trump

I don't understand how Kenney winning is relevant to Biden. 

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3 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Your opinion doesn't matter.  Basic fact does

 

Trump did not win the popular vote.

Trump won literally based on the electoral college and gerrymandering of districts which gave him crucial seats in crucial ridings nothing more.

50,000 votes the other way in one riding in one state and Hillary is president.

 

Hillary was barely likeable let alone voteable yet beat trump everywhere but the electoral college.  That is a simple verifiable fact

 

Sanders, O'Rourke, Biden on the campaign trail destroy Trump and it's really not close,  Like at all.

 

 

I literally said my opinion means nothing.

 

Your opinion means nothing as well. But carry on acting as if it does if that makes you feel better :) 

 

I dislike Trump as much as the next guy, but can see the writing on the wall.

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4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Your opinion doesn't matter.  Basic fact does

 

Trump did not win the popular vote.

Trump won literally based on the electoral college and gerrymandering of districts which gave him crucial seats in crucial ridings nothing more.

50,000 votes the other way in one riding in one state and Hillary is president.

 

Hillary was barely likeable let alone voteable yet beat trump everywhere but the electoral college.  That is a simple verifiable fact

 

Sanders, O'Rourke, Biden on the campaign trail destroy Trump and it's really not close,  Like at all.

 

 

Not quite. 

Trump had 304 EC votes, Hillary had 227.

The 'closest' Trump win, in terms of votes, for a major state ( as in greater than 10 EC votes) was Pennsylvania- where Trump had 2.970 million votes to Hillary's 2.926 million votes. Thats a split of around 44,000 - closer to the '50,000 one way or another' as you put it. Unfortunately, Pennsylvania has only 20 EC votes, which just makes Trump's victory a little less cushy, thats all. 

 

Hillary didn't beat trump 'everywhere' - she basically owned him in  the two big blue states of NY and California and won the popular vote as a result of it. 

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5 minutes ago, Whorvat said:

I literally said my opinion means nothing.

 

Your opinion means nothing as well. But carry on acting as if it does if that makes you feel better :) 

 

I dislike Trump as much as the next guy, but can see the writing on the wall.

Then you can't read it; it's pretty simple

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6 minutes ago, canuckistani said:

I don't understand how Kenney winning is relevant to Biden. 

The "voted them out just to vote them out" situation says something

 

Just now, canuckistani said:

Not quite. 

Trump had 304 EC votes, Hillary had 227.

The 'closest' Trump win, in terms of votes, for a major state ( as in greater than 10 EC votes) was Pennsylvania- where Trump had 2.970 million votes to Hillary's 2.926 million votes. Thats a split of around 44,000 - closer to the '50,000 one way or another' as you put it. Unfortunately, Pennsylvania has only 20 EC votes, which just makes Trump's victory a little less cushy, thats all. 

 

Hillary didn't beat trump 'everywhere' - she basically owned him in  the two big blue states of NY and California and won the popular vote as a result of it. 

You're still not showing me wrong here.  Gerrymandered districts and the electoral college won Trump the presidency.

 

The people though spoke and the people didn't vote for Trump.  2.87 million more votes in fact say that Hillary beat Trump, but that electoral lines won the presidency.

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1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Based on what exactly?

Jobs are a big part.  Unemployment noticeably lower, participation rate has risen slightly as opposed to the steady decline experienced since W was elected. Wages are increasing more than they had in Obama's time.  And, perhaps most importantly, he has improved the small business environment by killing regulations that made it so difficult for small businesses to stay afloat.  His tax plan was not (IMO) a major success, since he focused more on big companies/richer people than on small business/middle class, but it still helped the overall situation.  

 

These changes will also likely reduce Dem support from black voters, since Trump's policies are helping them out more than Obama's did, most noticeably through employment.  Likely not a big drop, but there will be some.

 

Unless something drastic happens to the economy in the next 16 months, and people's paychecks start taking hits, it's tough to see things changing in the Oval Office... especially given the ongoing presence the #Resist Movement.  As more attacks show to be unfounded, or so minor that pursuing them looks petty, it gives Trump some underdog appeal... whether he deserves that appeal or not. 

 

IMO, the Resist movement also gives Trump some support within any of his original supporters who might be wavering in their support now.  In their eyes, he has been successful.  Not as much as hoped, but considering some of the nonsense piled on by the Dems and Fake News (as they see it at least), Trump will get more of a pass considering what he has had to deal with along the way.

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3 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

The "voted them out just to vote them out" situation says something

Apples and oranges. No reason to see it apply to the POTUS situation after 1 term. In fact, i'd say 'anti-incumbency' politics has almost never applied to the POTUS race after 1 term only. 

Quote

 

You're still not showing me wrong here.  Gerrymandered districts and the electoral college won Trump the presidency.

 

The people though spoke and the people didn't vote for Trump.  2.87 million more votes in fact say that Hillary beat Trump, but that electoral lines won the presidency.

You are half-wrong. Districts do not matter in the POTUS election, its a straight numbers count for the ENTIRE state. EC won Trump the Presidency, not gerrymandered districts (which have relevance to the HoR and Senate elections, especially HoR). You are wrong in the whole '50K votes in one district going Hillary's way and Boom, she is President'. 

Edited by canuckistani

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2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

tbh I don't believe that he can beat Trump, or anyone else in that field, I think we're in for a full 8 of the orange clown. Maybe pre-icky gate but now its tainted with that odd behaviour. 

 

The dem's need to work on retaining the house and taking the senate with some kick-ass local candidates. Thats the only way any kind of sanity will be restored in the US.

I know that there is a 50% chance that Trump stays in as president, but I'm not totally convinced.

 

Certainly Dumbpf has used indoctrination to work his malleable flock to follow and adore his every expulsion. That, in and of itself, is a very powerful tool. It's worked for various dictators in the past.

 

I just don't think that it's a total given that the same methods will guarantee him a second term.

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Bernie or bust. Bernie is actually proposing  things and talking to people on the other side of the aisle. There are plenty of Bernie closet fan boys in red states but it's like being an atheist and you can't come out as one. Biden is riding solely on the anti-Dotard train. 

 

Edited by Tortorella's Rant
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10 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

Bernie or bust. Bernie is actually proposing  things and talking to people on the other side of the aisle. There are plenty of Bernie closet fan boys in red states but it's like being an atheist and you can't come out as one. Biden is riding solely on the anti-Dotard train. 

 

Yeah, Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump and IMO would've beaten Trump the first time around. As Hillary found out the hard way, there is an age-old truism about countering a bombastic, catchy-sound-byte generating guy who will whip the crowd up in a frenzy: its not 'wallowing in the mud playing his own game' (which is suicide, as Hillary found out after 1st debate), its the 'metronomic drone of facts, facts, more facts, hammer, hammer, hammer - hammer till all that remains are your boring facts'. Bernie is the guy tailor-made for that job. 

But unfortunately, he is too far left for the Dems to handle and won't get past the Democract nomination process itself. 

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23 minutes ago, Kragar said:

Jobs are a big part.  Unemployment noticeably lower, participation rate has risen slightly as opposed to the steady decline experienced since W was elected. Wages are increasing more than they had in Obama's time.  And, perhaps most importantly, he has improved the small business environment by killing regulations that made it so difficult for small businesses to stay afloat.  His tax plan was not (IMO) a major success, since he focused more on big companies/richer people than on small business/middle class, but it still helped the overall situation.  

While unemployment is down right now, that is only partially due to Dumpf. The slow and steady economic expansion began under Barack Obama. In fact, a Gallup poll showed that nearly half (48%) of those polled believed their economic condition worsened. He would have everyone believe that it's been solely his work that has set the unemployment downturn alight, and had nothing to do with the 5,000,000 jobs created in the last two years of Obama's presidency.

 

Small businesses did benefits from his policies. For sure. Some of the deregulation was a welcome sight to them. Can't argue there.

 

Steel and aluminum businesses are booming because of his tariffs, but taxing goods being exported to overseas countries has really hurt the farming and automaking sectors of the country. So much so that Trump is becoming reverting to socialist tactics with his $12,000,000,000 aid package.

 

His tax cuts mainly helped the mega-wealthy get even mega-wealthier. They passed on almost none of those benefits to their workers. Much like Trump has done in his businesses. Since February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker received a whopping 2 cent increase in hourly pay. The companies? Well, they've bought back shares of their own stock to inflate the value.

23 minutes ago, Kragar said:

 

These changes will also likely reduce Dem support from black voters, since Trump's policies are helping them out more than Obama's did, most noticeably through employment.  Likely not a big drop, but there will be some.

 

Unless something drastic happens to the economy in the next 16 months, and people's paychecks start taking hits, it's tough to see things changing in the Oval Office... especially given the ongoing presence the #Resist Movement.  As more attacks show to be unfounded, or so minor that pursuing them looks petty, it gives Trump some underdog appeal... whether he deserves that appeal or not. 

 

IMO, the Resist movement also gives Trump some support within any of his original supporters who might be wavering in their support now.  In their eyes, he has been successful.  Not as much as hoped, but considering some of the nonsense piled on by the Dems and Fake News (as they see it at least), Trump will get more of a pass considering what he has had to deal with along the way.

The stock market is bound for a massive correction which I'm sure Trump won't tweet about when it happens.

 

His narrative is easy to digest due to it's lack of multi-syllabic words, but it's complete lack of context is seemingly flying well under the radar.

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17 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

Bernie or bust. Bernie is actually proposing  things and talking to people on the other side of the aisle. There are plenty of Bernie closet fan boys in red states but it's like being an atheist and you can't come out as one. Biden is riding solely on the anti-Dotard train. 

Exactly. Bernie isn't basing his whole campaign on a monotonous "Trump this and Trump that" narrative. He's soundly and thoughtfully proposing ideas, even going on Fox News and engaging with Americans who don't wholly share his ideals and views. And they even gave him ovations, much to Dumbpf's chagrin.

 

The Democratic nominees who subsist only on the narrative that Trump is a problem and must be stopped aren't going to and shouldn't get any traction.

 

It's akin to standing on a beach and pointing to a tsunami and telling people that a lot of water is coming their way, rather than telling people where the evacuation routes are and getting the (expletive deleted) out of there.

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11 minutes ago, canuckistani said:

Yeah, Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump and IMO would've beaten Trump the first time around. As Hillary found out the hard way, there is an age-old truism about countering a bombastic, catchy-sound-byte generating guy who will whip the crowd up in a frenzy: its not 'wallowing in the mud playing his own game' (which is suicide, as Hillary found out after 1st debate), its the 'metronomic drone of facts, facts, more facts, hammer, hammer, hammer - hammer till all that remains are your boring facts'. Bernie is the guy tailor-made for that job. 

But unfortunately, he is too far left for the Dems to handle and won't get past the Democract nomination process itself. 

The fact that Hilary was almost equally as loathsome as Trump in those debates didn't help.

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13 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

The fact that Hilary was almost equally as loathsome as Trump in those debates didn't help.

Yeah, her sanctimonious 'deplorables' comment did untold harm to her campaign. I am a left-leaning centrist and a person of color. Best way to get me to vote for Scheer is to call me a race-traitor, deplorable, blahblahblah. Lets hope the sanctimonious left has learnt its lessons. 

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1 minute ago, PhillipBlunt said:

While unemployment is down right now, that is only partially due to Dumpf. The slow and steady economic expansion began under Barack Obama. In fact, a Gallup poll showed that nearly half (48%) of those polled believed their economic condition worsened. He would have everyone believe that it's been solely his work that has set the unemployment downturn alight, and had nothing to do with the 5,000,000 jobs created in the last two years of Obama's presidency.

First, there's a good helping of opinion in the bolded.  Obama himself admitted that the years of 3+% growth were gone.  Second, even if it were 100% fact, that's not the perception.  Removing stupid red tape is a huge deal to business owners.  One of the big flaws about Obamacare was that it encouraged companies to hire less people and have them work part time instead of full time.  Unrelated at the Fed level, but a similar concept: there is a new state law here in CA (Dem governor, senate and legislature by a strong margin)  regarding plastic straws in restaurants... which does not apply to places below a certain threshold of employees.  Why are Dems pass laws that discourage employment?

 

8 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Steel and aluminum businesses are booming because of his tariffs, but taxing goods being exported to overseas countries has really hurt the farming and automaking sectors of the country. So much so that Trump is becoming reverting to socialist tactics with his $12,000,000,000 aid package.

I'm not a fan of his tariff policies for the most part, and whenever new ones come up, they always worry me.  If they are a short-term means to a beneficial end, fine, but long term they are harmful.  I also disagree with his fixation on balance of trade.  As far as reverting to "socialist tactics", first that won't put off Dems so much, and second, I've never considered him a strong conservative in many of his policies.  As far as how that impacts Trump, losing farmers' support can hurt, but that depends on where you live.  CA farmers likely won't waver, because the state Dems are so terrible here, and the parties will often get lumped together.  Not necessarily good practice, but many people do vote by party on the ticket without delving too deep into merits of the individual candidates involved.  Autoworkers, well, they likely won't vote for him anyhow.

 

15 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

His tax cuts mainly helped the mega-wealthy get even mega-wealthier. They passed on almost none of those benefits to their workers. Much like Trump has done in his businesses. Since February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker received a whopping 2 cent increase in hourly pay. The companies? Well, they've bought back shares of their own stock to inflate the value.

 

The stock market is bound for a massive correction which I'm sure Trump won't tweet about when it happens.

 

His narrative is easy to digest due to it's lack of multi-syllabic words, but it's complete lack of context is seemingly flying well under the radar.

Yep, and I admitted to that.  I'm not mega-wealthy, by Western standards.  My company (one of those large ones that likely benefited well from the plan) saw fit to not give me much of a raise (again), despite the steady support of my supervisor.  However, despite losing some tax cuts as Trump punishes wealthy Blue states, I still had a noticeable drop in income taxes levied.

 

You bring up wages since February, but wage growth last year was significant (except mine ;)).  Also, according to this site (where the chart below comes from), Feb 2019 had a big jump already.  A month of going sideways is a terribly small sample size to hang your hat on.  The chart shown is a better representative.

 

MW-HF319_CES050_20190308084423_MG.png?uuid=484bd1de-41a8-11e9-b36e-ac162d7bc1f7

 

Corrections won't surprise me.  We've already had a couple since he's been in charge, and there will be more.  As long as he keeps doing things to improve the economy, and doesn't let the tariffs ruin things too much, the stock market, and Trump, will be fine.

 

Unless someone can come around with an economic plan that involves dealing with the debt, deficit, and unfunded liabilities and still maintain respectable job and wage levels, Trump will do well enough.  And, since Dems are campaigning on increasing unfunded liabilities (Medicare for All, free tuition, etc.) they can't win on the rising debt issue.  GOP doing nothing hurts the debt too, but since it is better than the Dems, they win by comparison for any who worry about the debt.

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34 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Exactly. Bernie isn't basing his whole campaign on a monotonous "Trump this and Trump that" narrative. He's soundly and thoughtfully proposing ideas, even going on Fox News and engaging with Americans who don't wholly share his ideals and views. And they even gave him ovations, much to Dumbpf's chagrin.

 

The Democratic nominees who subsist only on the narrative that Trump is a problem and must be stopped aren't going to and shouldn't get any traction.

 

It's akin to standing on a beach and pointing to a tsunami and telling people that a lot of water is coming their way, rather than telling people where the evacuation routes are and getting the (expletive deleted) out of there.

I agree that Bernie would primary better than Biden, and maybe beat the field.

 

Edit: as far as the field goes, depends on how easily Dems can support a consistently Independent, old white guy

Edited by Kragar

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One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this thread is the electoral college. Trump became President because he managed to flip 3 states in the rust belt Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He flipped these 3 states by a total of less than 100,000 votes total. That's less than .1% of the total votes cast.

 

His path to a second term will require following that same path and defending those states. Joe Biden is from Pennsylvania and is very popular there especially in rural Pennsylvania. Given how bad Trump's current approval rating is in Pennsylvania you can pretty much put that state in the Biden column already. Pennsylvania is worth 20 electoral votes. Taking it from Trump to Biden is a swing of 40 votes.

 

Trump is currently polling horribly in Wisconsin and Michigan. The problems they faced pre 2016 are the same problems they face now. Loss of good paying jobs, the opioid epidemic, unemployment rates far higher than the national average. These states never really benefited from the lift out of the Great Recession. Which made them vulnerable to be flipped. For them they are still stuck in the economic mud. They took a chance on Trump but he has not delivered for them. Making them ripe to be flipped back.

 

Independents in these rust belt states (you can throw in Ohio as well) broke heavily for Trump. They were simply fed up of seeing a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot and wanted change. Independents have abandoned Trump nationwide. They have no party allegiance and are simply disgusted with his behavior.

 

Trump is currently under water 17 points with women. With women being 50% of the electorate that's kind of a big problem. In the 2016 general election Trump surprisingly won the majority of white women. His current numbers with white women are a major problem.

 

Trump has a major problem. The people who took a chance on him haven't got much of anything out of his presidency. They'll vote for whoever they feel will deliver for them.

 

Politicians lie all the time. Numbers don't.

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2 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Bernie seemed to really inspire the youth in the States in 2016. That is until Hillary and the DNC f'ed him over.

He inspired the youth by over-promising free stuff. All of which wouldn't be economically feasible.  

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3 minutes ago, Hansman said:

He inspired the youth by over-promising free stuff. All of which wouldn't be economically feasible.  

That's an oversimplification of his platform. Great input though. But $610,000,000 on the military is totally feasible?

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