[Discussion] if Podkolzin is available at 10 do we take him

[JeremyCuddles]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I think Button is basing his valuation on new viewings of the player though.  Bob's rankings are from earlier, aren't they?  

Anyway Button dropped the guy down to 13.  Add to that the whole Russian factor, and the player (maybe?) choosing to stay and over there, and the guy could fall a lot.  I'd rather pick up Broberg or Seider.  They both have higher ceilings.  

Neither of them have higher ceilings. Lol. But to each their own.

[JM_]

16 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

 

How is this different than say a guy going to college for a couple of years? Or being sent back to juniors and then a year in the AHL or whatever? The KHL is a men's league, so he will be developing there. 2 years is very little time and if he's NHL ready, then he would arrive at around the time any other player would be. Now unless we are looking for a player that can step in immediately, then it would be a different story, but that may not fit into the BPA mantra.

 

For comparison sake, Boeser did sign after his college season and played a few games, but he was a 20 year old before he became a full time NHLer. Not very far off from Podkolzin being away for a couple of years and jumping right in hopefully.

 

There is the chance he may not want to play here and maybe he's using this tactic to hopefully land on a team of choice (Jagr style?) because we all know about the buyout rules in the KHL. The teams will hopefully find out more on this during their interviews so they will make the decision to take him or not if he does drop to 10. But based on skill alone, I probably wouldn't pass on him if he does drop that far.

its different because he's already making pro money in Russia at a young age, and will be for 2 more years to come, so there might be less incentive to sign with a team he doesn't prefer. He can continue to make money until 22 and then sign a heavy bonus laden pro contract in the NHL. Its very different.  

Edited May 15, 2019 by Jimmy McGill

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

Neither of them have higher ceilings. Lol. But to each their own.

Both Seider and Broberg are D, who are big guys that skate really well - especially Broberg.  They have the "it" factor too. Each wants to dominate the game.  Not a fan of Podkolzin, but would become his biggest fan if we draft him.  

[theo5789]

1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

its different because he's already making pro money in Russia at a young age, and will be for 2 more years to come, so there might be less incentive to sign with a team he doesn't prefer. He can continue to make money until 22 and then sign a pro contract. Its very different.  

So could any other Russian player, but we constantly see players coming from the KHL to play here because the world knows this is the best league. Now if he doesn't prefer to play here, then of course we don't take him, but that's why I mentioned that they will hopefully figure this out during the interviews and with the assumption that he even falls to 10th. But the fact that he's in the KHL for 2 more years doesn't mean much when considering most prospects take an extra year or two before making the jump anyway.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Both Seider and Broberg are D, who are big guys that skate really well - especially Broberg.  They have the "it" factor too. Each wants to dominate the game.  Not a fan of Podkolzin, but would become his biggest fan if we draft him.  

you said the same thing about Goldy 

 

At 10 we still have the chance at a top pairing d, thats where Jim needs to pick imo. But thats why he gets the big bucks and has a staff. 

[aGENT]

I think this would depend entirely on his interview which we are sadly not privy too.

 

Solid kid who will happily come here in two years after his current contract is up? With his skill set we'd be fools not to draft him.

 

Entitled and wishy-washy about coming to North America/Vancouver in particular?  .... 

 

 

[Alflives]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

you said the same thing about Goldy 

 

At 10 we still have the chance at a top pairing d, thats where Jim needs to pick imo. But thats why he gets the big bucks and has a staff. 

Yup, it surely depends on which guys are left for us at 10.  If there is a choice between Podkolozin and Seider (assuming Broberg is gone already) then I'm for Seider.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, theo5789 said:

So could any other Russian player, but we constantly see players coming from the KHL to play here because the world knows this is the best league. Now if he doesn't prefer to play here, then of course we don't take him, but that's why I mentioned that they will hopefully figure this out during the interviews and with the assumption that he even falls to 10th. But the fact that he's in the KHL for 2 more years doesn't mean much when considering most prospects take an extra year or two before making the jump anyway.

well it is the most money he can probably make tho. If he comes to the NHL at 22 after 4 years in the KHL that bonus money is a lock. 

 

I agree totally on the interview part though, thats so important. And of course discussions with his agent. But if you can't get a firm read on that I'd like Jim to pass, I think we can get winger skill in free agency. 

[JeremyCuddles]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Both Seider and Broberg are D, who are big guys that skate really well - especially Broberg.  They have the "it" factor too. Each wants to dominate the game.  Not a fan of Podkolzin, but would become his biggest fan if we draft him.  

Podkolzin, as has been stated numerous times already, is a dog on the puck. He battles and plays hard. So they don't have an advantage on him in that category. Also, he's 6'1 190 right now at 17, chances are he'll be 6'2 200-210 at the NHL level. Podkolzin is a big boy too. Again, not a decisive advantage for them over Podkolzin. Podkolzin, even if what Button says is true, is still ahead of both of them in the offensive potential category while being good and reliable defensively. The only d-man I'd take in this draft over Podkolzin is Byram. 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Yup, it surely depends on which guys are left for us at 10.  If there is a choice between Podkolozin and Seider (assuming Broberg is gone already) then I'm for Seider.

For me its still Soderstrom, Brogberg, Seider but I think thats the same general feeling. I could be over-valuing the SHL but I'm impressed with how Soderstrom did there being so young. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, N7Nucks said:

Podkolzin, as has been stated numerous times already, is a dog on the puck. He battles and plays hard. So they don't have an advantage on him in that category. Also, he's 6'1 190 right now at 17, chances are he'll be 6'2 200-210 at the NHL level. Podkolzin is a big boy too. Again, not a decisive advantage for them over Podkolzin. Podkolzin, even if what Button says is true, is still ahead of both of them in the offensive potential category while being good and reliable defensively. The only d-man I'd take in this draft over Podkolzin is Byram. 

If we were somehow able to get that 8 OA pick from the Oilers, while still keeping our 10 OA, then I'm okay with taking Podkolzin with one of the two.  I still think Seider and Borberg have higher ceilings, and will effect the game more from their position than a winger like Podkolzin.  

[theo5789]

1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

well it is the most money he can probably make tho. If he comes to the NHL at 22 after 4 years in the KHL that bonus money is a lock. 

 

I agree totally on the interview part though, thats so important. And of course discussions with his agent. But if you can't get a firm read on that I'd like Jim to pass, I think we can get winger skill in free agency. 

How much is he making anyway? Is it really a lot compared to the money here? If money is his only aspiration, then I would pass indeed. Most players want to become the best player they can be in the best league in the world and that would be the reason I would want to pick him if he shows that passion with his skill.

 

It really depends on who's still on the board, but if he is available at 10 and from the skill-point alone, he should be the BPA at that point. It all doesn't matter if he doesn't want to play here though.

[JeremyCuddles]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

For me its still Soderstrom, Brogberg, Seider but I think thats the same general feeling. I could be over-valuing the SHL but I'm impressed with how Soderstrom did there being so young. 

Soderstrom in the SHL gives him the edge over Broberg for me. If we do go a d-man at 10 my vote is Soderstrom. I been riding high on Soderstrom all year though so I do have a dog in this fight. I like Seider but I'd rather trade down for him. The mock drafts I seen have him in the 20 range. Taking him at 10 is a bit too off the board for my liking. Although he's been playing pretty good in the Worlds. Gotta be climbing some lists because of it.

[Nucker 67]

I don't know. Watching little Jackie Hughes trying to keep up with the big boys at the Worlds sure puts things into perspective. Kakko looks amazing. Quinn has looked very good. So, seeing as Jack is struggling playing with men, is Button going to all of a sudden drop him down several spots in his rankings? Probably not, which is why I take his opinions with a grain of salt.

 

 

[Alflives]

Just now, NUCKER67 said:

I don't know. Watching little Jackie Hughes trying to keep up with the big boys at the Worlds sure puts things into perspective. Kakko looks amazing. Quinn has looked very good. So, seeing as Jack is struggling playing with men, is Button going to all of a sudden drop him down several spots in his rankings? Probably not, which is why I take his opinions with a grain of salt.

 

 

Jack Hughes has elite puck skills, skating, and vision.  Podkolzin dropped in the rankings because of his lack of puck skills.  Like you have pointed out though, likely Podkolzin is drafted before number ten.  Then this is like Joey says in Friends. 

[higgyfan]

10 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

Podkolzin, as has been stated numerous times already, is a dog on the puck. He battles and plays hard. So they don't have an advantage on him in that category. Also, he's 6'1 190 right now at 17, chances are he'll be 6'2 200-210 at the NHL level. Podkolzin is a big boy too. Again, not a decisive advantage for them over Podkolzin. Podkolzin, even if what Button says is true, is still ahead of both of them in the offensive potential category while being good and reliable defensively. The only d-man I'd take in this draft over Podkolzin is Byram. 

Button seems to be the holy grail of scouting around CDC.  In reality, he is one of hundreds of scouts and is more than capable of miscalculating a prospects value.  He seems to be out on a limb on this one.  Haven't heard any other reports on Podk that are critical of his stickhandling or most other skills.  The Russian factor will have him drop in the draft, but I still think he's gone before #10.

[JeremyCuddles]

Just now, higgyfan said:

Button seems to be the holy grail of scouting around CDC.  In reality, he is one of hundreds of scouts and is more than capable of miscalculating a prospects value.  He seems to be out on a limb on this one.  Haven't heard any other reports on Podk that are critical of his stickhandling or most other skills.  The Russian factor will have him drop in the draft, but I still think he's gone before #10.

Yeah Button gets way too much credit around here. He's a bit of a goof imo, but he is right often enough that I gotta take some of what he says into account. I still think he is incorrect in his assessment of Podkolzin. Having Podkolzin at 13 is an absolute joke to me. If he's around at 10 I'd be yelling at my tv for Benning to take him. Button likely suffers from what most fans do, recency bias. We'll see how this all shakes out in 5ish years though. Lol.

[BCNate]

24 minutes ago, Alflives said:

 

I think it was Craig Button (recently) who said that Podkolzin doesn't have the puck skills many thought he had.  I heard it on the radio recently.  Maybe someone here can find the comments? 

I read that, it's in his latest mock draft.

 

If Podkolzin is there at 10, JB will lose his mind. I'd take him in the 4-6 range. Most guys in this draft won't be in the NHL next year, so at most we are waiting 1 extra year for a guys who may be the 3rd most talented in the draft.   I don't see falling to 10 happening though, I think we may luck out and get Boldy of Zegras fall to us, which would still be a huge win.

[Rick Blight]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

No.

 

He has 2 more years on his KHL contract.

 

Also, for a guy touted as a "star in the making" already playing in Russia I'd be concerned about ever seeing him suit up if he didn't like who picked him. 

 

That and we have bigger holes to fill on defence. 

 

Also from a contract pov if he didn't sign with us, I think he'd be a free agent at 22 but I need a person with better cap knowledge than me to confirm that. 

 

As per the CBA.......

Players Drafted from a Club Outside North America. (i) Notwithstanding any provision of Sections 8.6(a) or (b) to the contrary, if a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is drafted from a club outside North America, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.

Upon the expiration of the applicable exclusive right of negotiation as outlined in subsections (i) and (ii) above, the Player shall be a draft-related Unrestricted Free Agent.

 

[Nucker 67]

There are a handful of players that, to me, seem more developed physically than the rest. Like they could possibly play next season. I know there are quite a few smaller players with a lot of skill, and I'm sure over time they will also grow into men. How big will Hughes and Caufield get?

 

Kakko

Dach

Podkolzin

Broberg

Seider

Lavoie

 

I know we won't get Kakko, and probably not Dach, and Lavoie seems a far fetch at #10, but I would be extremely happy with either Podkolzin, Broberg or Seider.