Proposal - Draft Pick Frenzy EDM-DAL-CAR-PITS-OTT

[Pepe Silvia]

On 5/24/2019 at 11:10 AM, Seannnp said:

Why? Because they are willing to trade them for what I perceive to be approximate value?

 

I'm certain that Carolina would prefer to upgrade their forward group then draft 29th, a player who likely doesn't help them for 2-3 years if ever. I'm sure our offer could be beaten by other teams for that 1st round pick but usually when you make a proposal you don't consider what all 30 teams may be willing to offer.

 

I seriously don't get the smartass comments? You can simply just say "hey man, don't think these trades work because of x,y,z"...what are you 12?

Wow someone is sensitive. 

I'll put it in a way that won't hurt your feelings this time. 

Your value is way off.

Edmonton isn't so urgent to dump Lucic that they would serve up the 8th and 38th pick on a nice silver platter. The 8th pick is absolutely massive for the Oilers. McDavid and Draisaitl are in desperate need of some quality line mates and Edmonton is in prime position to add a highly skilled forward for their core. It makes ZERO sense for them to trade those picks for an aging, injury prone centre. McDavid is 22 and Drai is 23. How does 30 year old Brandon Sutter work long term for the Oilers?

 

If you were the Canucks, would you trade Eriksson, 10thOA and 40thOA for Phillip Danault? Of course not. 


 

[The Lock]

On 5/24/2019 at 4:24 PM, Seannnp said:

If we were expecting to compete for the playoffs, were constrained by the cap and couldn't add secondary scoring to the best player in the world, with a decent defense core and up and coming prospects already in the system; not to mention free agents like Karlsson, Panarin and Lee available that we could potentially go after, absolutely I would.

 

Oilers have 2 first line centers, a 2nd line center, 3 top 4 defenseman with Bouchard likely to make the jump next year. They need desperate help on the wings. RNH takes one spot if someone like Sutter can come in and play 3c and take on the defensive responsibilities. They are missing top 6 forwards as Pool and Yam haven't shown they are ready to take on that role. They do not have the cap space to bring on guys like Lee, Panarin or Karlsson to help with the offense because of 6 million tied into a player that cant play the top 6 role they need him to play. The 8th OA isn't going to be ready for a minimum of two years and likely wont be an impact forward in his first year, so that's 3 years away. They have little to no cap space and need a 3c (Brock Nelson just signed a 6x6 contract today to play 3c for the Islanders for his 20-25 goals a year), and two more top 6 wingers. How do you expect them to fill those spots and compete with no cap space.

 

Other GM's not only need to consider the 6 million cap hit but also the 24 million salary that actually needs to be paid and the expansion protection slot. The NMC that Lucic has can be disqualified when he gets traded to the Canucks so long as both parties agree to it. I would expect Benning to ensure that happens. Lucic also decides where he wants to go and hes expressed his feelings to return home. Holland has no leverage. He needs to bring in players to produce and help McDavid get this team to the playoffs and that Lucic contract is his biggest obstacle.

 

Maybe the additional 2nd doesn't happen but if you think someone is going to take on a 6m cap hit for 4 more years, pay 24 million dollars in cash for 1st round pick only its never going to happen and if there is a team that is willing to do that Lucic has to agree to the trade. Oilers don't have very many options. I don't think they have any options actually.

 

The Canucks are gearing upto compete but likely wont be for another year or two, they have the cap space at the very least for the next two years, they can renegotiate the NMC allowing us to move Lucic or expose him during the expansion draft (he wont get picked up anyways), we can still move Eriksson, and our owners are in a pretty good financial position to take on the additional salary.

I think you are missing the point. These trades won't happen. The GMs would hang up (or at least politely decline) if you offered them. You can talk all about where we need to go but unless if you provide the other teams something that they want, none of this will happen. I get that you want to improve the team, but I really think you are thinking entirely about us in these trades and not about the other teams. There's a lot of homerism going on in these proposals, grossly over-valuating our assets and undervaluating the other team's assets.

 

Let me ask you think even: Would you trade away our 10th OA pick, our 2nd rounder, and Eriksson, for a player similar to Sutter but at 50% retained? Personally, I don't think I could even sleep at night if we pulled the trigger on something like that and Benning would probably be ran out of town. This is pretty much what you would do to Holland with your trade. lol

[Seannnp]

On ‎5‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 5:24 PM, CaptainLinden16 said:

You make good points but you only think in prism where all of these teams have to trade with Canucks.  Tanev is not the only defensive defensmen that Dallas could go after.  Maybe Stralman in a cap strapped TB team would be more appealing to them.  Or insert other player here__.  In order to trade a 1st round pick they would have to really WANT Tanev.  If that WANT was there then there would be some smoke coming out about something like this.  I haven't heard a Tanev rumor in ages.  

 

As a GM, I personally would almost never ever trade down.  The success probability chart is exponential not linear.  Each position is worth significantly more than the one above it based on career success probability.  These types of trades are very infrequent in the first round, so I am fairly certain most GMs are of the same opinion.  

 

If you have Hutton and Baertschi both worth a 3rd round pick then how on Earth does that equal a 1st round pick.  If you traded me 10 - 3rd round picks, I would still keep my 1st and say no thank you.  

 

Moving Lucic will not require the 8th overall.  I am very confident of that.  Maybe he only wants to come here and maybe thats all you would be willing to take for him, but there is noway Edmonton does that.  They dont need to win now and they dont have the roster for it.  There is no reason to sacrifice such a significant piece for cap flexibility.  You take on a 4M per year bad contract or 3M plus a 2nd rd pick from some other team and throw in a B prospect and someone will find that enticing.  

 

I completely don't agree on trading a 1st and a 2nd to get rid of Eriksson.  Why?  Free agents are very rarely worth the money.  UFA = over valued contract because of the supply and demand dynamics.  Every GM wants a "free" player.

 

1st round picks not at the trade deadline get typically traded for a marquee player in a package.  I don't remember the last time a GM traded a 1st round pick for spare parts on June 1st.

All valid points. I agree that the team would have to want Tanev along with any other Canuck player for a trade to work out in. I was just presenting possibilities that were available to use that could be explored.

 

I take 10 3rd round picks, over our 10th OA, every day of the week and twice on sundays. You just have to look at some of the players that have been drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds. There have been some all-stars, some hall of famers even that have been taken in the later rounds and if youre giving Jim Benning 10 cracks at find a few gems, I would rather take that than one 1st round pick. This doesn't even get into the value that 10 3rd rounders would bring back.

 

Trading down always has a perceived value regardless of the success probability being exponential. This is simply because team needs, team perspective is different from team to team. If you had the 3rd OA pick but really really wanted Gabe Villardi and were convinced he was going to reach his ceiling, etc the 3rd round pick no longer carries the same value to you as it does to another team when the player you want is likely to go in the 6-7-8 position. The value for your team is in trading down and acquiring additional assets. You could say the 6th pick holds more value for your team because it comes with an additional 2nd for example.

 

We'll just agree to disagree here. I think it takes a lot. I don't think there are very many teams Lucis is interested in playing for. The Stanley cup contenders likely don't have a spot for Lucic, then basement dwellers, rebuilders he likely does not want to go to. The perfect fit for him is a team that is in transition to compete. A team that is finishing a rebuild, looking to compete in the next year or two, could use another high draft pick and could take on the salary and Lucic needs to be willing to go there. I cant think of single team other than Vancouver and Arizona where this would work out for all parties involved.

 

In some cases free agents are not worth the money. When Eriksson signed his contract, he was worth that contact. When Lucic signed his contact, he may have been slightly over paid but was worth pretty much what he was being paid. Panarin this year likely gets 10million. He is absolutely worth that contract. Problem is some players cant live up to those contacts throughout the term. Edmonton has the option of either drafting one of Boldy or Krebs or signing Panarin at 10 million, which option do you think they are taking? Can they take the 2nd option without the cap space? Would that option be more of a possibility if they didn't have Lucic? As of right now no one helps them out and takes Lucic off their hands and his 6 mill cap, 24 million dollars for 2 2nds. It starts with 8th OA, or Puljujarvi and 2 2nds minimum.

[CaptainLinden16]

18 hours ago, Seannnp said:

All valid points. I agree that the team would have to want Tanev along with any other Canuck player for a trade to work out in. I was just presenting possibilities that were available to use that could be explored.

 

I take 10 3rd round picks, over our 10th OA, every day of the week and twice on sundays. You just have to look at some of the players that have been drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds. There have been some all-stars, some hall of famers even that have been taken in the later rounds and if youre giving Jim Benning 10 cracks at find a few gems, I would rather take that than one 1st round pick. This doesn't even get into the value that 10 3rd rounders would bring back.

 

Trading down always has a perceived value regardless of the success probability being exponential. This is simply because team needs, team perspective is different from team to team. If you had the 3rd OA pick but really really wanted Gabe Villardi and were convinced he was going to reach his ceiling, etc the 3rd round pick no longer carries the same value to you as it does to another team when the player you want is likely to go in the 6-7-8 position. The value for your team is in trading down and acquiring additional assets. You could say the 6th pick holds more value for your team because it comes with an additional 2nd for example.

 

We'll just agree to disagree here. I think it takes a lot. I don't think there are very many teams Lucis is interested in playing for. The Stanley cup contenders likely don't have a spot for Lucic, then basement dwellers, rebuilders he likely does not want to go to. The perfect fit for him is a team that is in transition to compete. A team that is finishing a rebuild, looking to compete in the next year or two, could use another high draft pick and could take on the salary and Lucic needs to be willing to go there. I cant think of single team other than Vancouver and Arizona where this would work out for all parties involved.

 

In some cases free agents are not worth the money. When Eriksson signed his contract, he was worth that contact. When Lucic signed his contact, he may have been slightly over paid but was worth pretty much what he was being paid. Panarin this year likely gets 10million. He is absolutely worth that contract. Problem is some players cant live up to those contacts throughout the term. Edmonton has the option of either drafting one of Boldy or Krebs or signing Panarin at 10 million, which option do you think they are taking? Can they take the 2nd option without the cap space? Would that option be more of a possibility if they didn't have Lucic? As of right now no one helps them out and takes Lucic off their hands and his 6 mill cap, 24 million dollars for 2 2nds. It starts with 8th OA, or Puljujarvi and 2 2nds minimum.

You are confusing incidence with probability.  Just because there has been good players drafted in the 3rd round doesn't mean its likely.  Just because you can win Black Jack with 13 doesn't mean its likely.  You can always sign middling players in free agency.  You can always trade for middling players easily.  You can always develop middling players.  The reason why the 8th or 10th or 1st round pick is worth more is that it gives you a significantly larger probability of getting a high end talent.  You cannot easily obtain high end talent through free agency or trade.  It's simply a numbers thing.  The math is heavily against you drafting 10 times in the 3rd round even if you give Benning a higher than average probability of success.  Then when you get into contract slots, play time and development opportunities for 10 bodies versus 1 then it really becomes challenging...

 

You just have to think of it structurally there are maybe 500 scouts worldwide that look at these players constantly.  Nowadays there is film on every player who is draft eligible.  If a player is past up twice by 31 teams then the likelihood of that player having star potential is really quite low.  People can grow, mature and get better; but there are only about 5 difference makers every draft.  Maybe even less...

 

The most valuable thing in hockey is the 1st overall.  There is nothing like it to obtain a true high end talent even if there are some busts.  1-10 also give you a true shot at a star.  The exponential scale actually relates to the 1st round as well.  picks 20-30 have a significantly lower probability than a top 10 pick. 29+30 is definitely a worse mathematically than 11.

 

GMs have very few chips that can genuinely change a roster.  A top 10 pick is a HUGE difference maker.  It really can't be overstated.  A lot of fans have unrealistic expectations of what a GM can accomplish picking 22nd.  That being said, there is no sane GM that didn't make the playoffs who would trade an 8th overall pick for anything other than a top 7 pick or a 22 year old player already producing.  Panarin is 0.000000000% likely to want to go to the frozen wasteland of Edmonton.  No amount of capspace is going to make that happen.  Trading an 8th overall pick to get rid of Lucic then go out and sign another Lucic makes no sense.