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Vasily Podkolzin | #92 | RW


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On 11/7/2019 at 2:21 AM, Horvat is a Boss said:

Well, I actually looked into my own question since I didn't think anyone else would research something that might make a Canuck's prospect look bad. My question was pretty much this: "How does Podkolzin's draft year production compare with anybody who played a decent amount in the same leagues in the last 20 years?" I looked at Podkolzin's production relative to some of his comparables back before the draft, so the results don't really surprise me. 

 

MHL:

 

Filatov: 47 points in 23 games (2.04 PPG)

Kuznetsov: 16 points in 9 games (1.78 PPG)

Chistov: 9 points in 7 games (1.29 PPG)

Gurianov: 25 points in 23 games (1.09 PPG)

Frolov: 24 points in 25 games (0.96 PPG)

Nichushkin: 8 points in 9 games (0.89 PPG)

Mikhnov: 35 points in 40 games (0.88 PPG)

Radulov: 31 points in 42 games (0.74 PPG)

 

Denisenko: 22 points in 31 games (0.71 PPG) 

Yakubov: 24 points in 35 games (0.69 PPG)

Smirnov: 8 points in 12 games (0.67 PPG)

Podkolzin: 8 points in 12 games (0.67 PPG) 

Kryukov: 9 points in 15 games (0.6 PPG)

 

VHL:

 

Kovulchuk: 46 points in 40 games (1.15 PPG) 

Kravtsov: 7 points in 9 games (0.78 PPG)

Nuchushkin: 10 points in 15 games (0.67 PPG)

Podkolzin: 5 points in 14 games (0.36 PPG)

Kostin: 1 point in 9 games (0.11 PPG)

 

 

* I didn't use KHL stats because Podkolzin only played like 3 shifts over 3 games in his draft year, so there's no real sample size there. Guys like Ovechkin, Malkin, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, etc. played most if not all of their draft year's in the KHL.  

 

** I left out players that didn't play more than like 3 games in a league. For example, Kravtsov played 1 MHL game and had 3 points, so his PPG would be 3.0. 

 

*** The Russian system underwent an overhaul around 2008 that changed all the leagues. Players before that played in 3 different leagues: Russia, Russia 2 or Russia 3. I just assumed that Russia = KHL, Russia 2 = VHL and Russia 3 = MHL, since the KHL is the strongest league and the MHL is the weakest. All players in italics played in Russia 2 or Russia 3. 

 

As you can see, Podkolzin compares less than favourably to every Russian 1st rounder who played in the MHL and/or VHL in their draft year. There are have been 2 players that have scored at a lower rate than him in the last 20 years and gotten picked in the 1st round (one of them was drafted in 2000): Kryukov and Kostin. Kryukov was drafted 15th overall in 2000 and never signed an NHL contract. Kostin was drafted 31st overall in 2017 and missed almost the entire year with a bad shoulder. Smirnov had the same MHL production as Podkolzin, was drafted 12th overall in 2000 and had an NHL career that lasted 52 games over 2 years. 

 

Even if you want to throw away the comparables from over 10 years ago who technically played in another league (which is fairly reasonable), the only player that Podkolzin compares favourably with was one who was one pick away from the 2nd round and had a major surgery in his draft year. I'm not sure how you can tell someone not be concerned with his production right now. His VHL production has improved from last year, but it still trails behind Nuchushkin's draft year pace. 

 

The good news is that a large part of Podkolzin's contributions to his team are away from the scoresheet with things like forechecking, physical play and defensive awareness. Whether that's worth drafting one of the lowest scoring prospects relative to his peers this century at 10th overall is up to you. 

 

HiB.  

 

 

Stat watching Podz is not a decent way to gauge his projection.  

 

Minutes played vs games played.  This might be considered as Podz has had some very unusual deployment.  To just list games played while following this thread as you have, is disingenuous.  

 

Had Nish had Podz's character and work ethic, he would be a true top six winger in the NHL atm.  

 

Podz's complete game is a tangible benefit to this team.  Much like Bo Horvats.  Podz is physically beyond his peers, but is already getting to play against men in the second strongest pro league in the world.  

 

This list, while interesting has  no players on it that even come close to having the complete game that Podz has.   Even with lower production that is being accurately presented in your data makes no reference to any defence stats.  While no one would normally associate russian first round forwards with defence, it's a big part of what Podz brings.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phat Fingers said:

HiB.  

 

 

Stat watching Podz is not a decent way to gauge his projection.  

 

Minutes played vs games played.  This might be considered as Podz has had some very unusual deployment.  To just list games played while following this thread as you have, is disingenuous.  

 

Had Nish had Podz's character and work ethic, he would be a true top six winger in the NHL atm.  

 

Podz's complete game is a tangible benefit to this team.  Much like Bo Horvats.  Podz is physically beyond his peers, but is already getting to play against men in the second strongest pro league in the world.  

 

This list, while interesting has  no players on it that even come close to having the complete game that Podz has.   Even with lower production that is being accurately presented in your data makes no reference to any defence stats.  While no one would normally associate russian first round forwards with defence, it's a big part of what Podz brings.  

 

 

It makes sense that those who just track Podz stats might get concerned about the pick, but his game isn't based entirely on offence. I've watched a lot of his condensed game highlights and he seems comparable to Virtanen in junior, except he maintains that aggression and dog on a bone mentality when playing against men, while Virtanen became a little more passive after junior. Also, he has much better vision than Virtanen, and frequently blows down the wing only to buttonhook and hit the trailing dman with a pass for a quality chance. 

As far as the points, I've seen him set his linemates up for so many chances just to have them fumble the puck or miss, but I've also seen Podz fumble a few breakaway chances, including a game in the KHL where he dangled the goalie but just lost the puck before he could tuck it in the open corner. The points will come, he is playing well. I don't think Podkolzin is a prospect that we should follow his stats super closely due to his unique deployment situation, and we shouldn't worry about the pick until seeing him play in the World juniors at the earliest. 

Matthew Boldy who was the next forward picked after Podz only has 1 goal playing college hockey. I still think Podz was the right pick based off the massive potential, and he might not figure out his offensive tool kit until he's 22-23 but he has potential to be a 50-60 point player in the NHL, and definitely even higher than that if he can make it onto Pettersson's line at some point

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2 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

HiB.  

 

 

Stat watching Podz is not a decent way to gauge his projection.  

 

Minutes played vs games played.  This might be considered as Podz has had some very unusual deployment.  To just list games played while following this thread as you have, is disingenuous.  

 

Had Nish had Podz's character and work ethic, he would be a true top six winger in the NHL atm.  

 

Podz's complete game is a tangible benefit to this team.  Much like Bo Horvats.  Podz is physically beyond his peers, but is already getting to play against men in the second strongest pro league in the world.  

 

This list, while interesting has  no players on it that even come close to having the complete game that Podz has.   Even with lower production that is being accurately presented in your data makes no reference to any defence stats.  While no one would normally associate russian first round forwards with defence, it's a big part of what Podz brings.  

 

 

 

I stated in my post that I didn't look at KHL production because Podkolzin only played like 30 seconds over 3 games or something in the KHL in his draft year. Most players who have gone on to have notable NHL careers have had some sort of impact in the KHL in their draft years, so if you want to add that into the comparisons it would only look worse for Podkolzin. Podkolzin's in game usage in the VHL and MHL was not unusual, so that's fair game. 

 

Nobody is debating whether or not Podkolzin brings value to his team away from the scoresheet. His defensive awareness, tenacity and strength are well recognized. There are people who are skeptical as to whether that is worthy of a top 10 pick though. There are people who see a similar career path to Virtanen. Both were virtual locks to be NHL players at the draft to their physical tools, but the overall upside and ceiling were in question. That's pretty much exactly how the Virtanen pick turned out as there were some players with lower floors but higher ceilings taken after him. I could see the same thing happening with this pick as there were players who I felt had higher ceilings who were taken after him. 

 

Why are you bringing Rick Nash into this? That came out of nowhere. If Nash had that defensive ability and tenacity he would have been an even better player than he already was, but if Podkolzin had Nash's offensive ability he would also be a way better player right now. Nash was a 1st overall pick, NHL captain, consistent 20-30 goal scorer, 2 time Olympic gold medal winner with Canada who stepped out of the league after concussion issues. That whole comment is just mind boggling. 

 

Dorsett was someone who brought character, tenacity and strength to the team. He cost a 3rd rounder to acquire, not a top 10 pick. 

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On 11/6/2019 at 10:21 PM, Horvat is a Boss said:

Well, I actually looked into my own question since I didn't think anyone else would research something that might make a Canuck's prospect look bad. My question was pretty much this: "How does Podkolzin's draft year production compare with anybody who played a decent amount in the same leagues in the last 20 years?" I looked at Podkolzin's production relative to some of his comparables back before the draft, so the results don't really surprise me. 

 

MHL:

 

Filatov: 47 points in 23 games (2.04 PPG)

Kuznetsov: 16 points in 9 games (1.78 PPG)

Chistov: 9 points in 7 games (1.29 PPG)

Gurianov: 25 points in 23 games (1.09 PPG)

Frolov: 24 points in 25 games (0.96 PPG)

Nichushkin: 8 points in 9 games (0.89 PPG)

Mikhnov: 35 points in 40 games (0.88 PPG)

Radulov: 31 points in 42 games (0.74 PPG)

 

Denisenko: 22 points in 31 games (0.71 PPG) 

Yakubov: 24 points in 35 games (0.69 PPG)

Smirnov: 8 points in 12 games (0.67 PPG)

Podkolzin: 8 points in 12 games (0.67 PPG) 

Kryukov: 9 points in 15 games (0.6 PPG)

 

VHL:

 

Kovulchuk: 46 points in 40 games (1.15 PPG) 

Kravtsov: 7 points in 9 games (0.78 PPG)

Nuchushkin: 10 points in 15 games (0.67 PPG)

Podkolzin: 5 points in 14 games (0.36 PPG)

Kostin: 1 point in 9 games (0.11 PPG)

 

 

* I didn't use KHL stats because Podkolzin only played like 3 shifts over 3 games in his draft year, so there's no real sample size there. Guys like Ovechkin, Malkin, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, etc. played most if not all of their draft year's in the KHL.  

 

** I left out players that didn't play more than like 3 games in a league. For example, Kravtsov played 1 MHL game and had 3 points, so his PPG would be 3.0. 

 

*** The Russian system underwent an overhaul around 2008 that changed all the leagues. Players before that played in 3 different leagues: Russia, Russia 2 or Russia 3. I just assumed that Russia = KHL, Russia 2 = VHL and Russia 3 = MHL, since the KHL is the strongest league and the MHL is the weakest. All players in italics played in Russia 2 or Russia 3. 

 

As you can see, Podkolzin compares less than favourably to every Russian 1st rounder who played in the MHL and/or VHL in their draft year. There are have been 2 players that have scored at a lower rate than him in the last 20 years and gotten picked in the 1st round (one of them was drafted in 2000): Kryukov and Kostin. Kryukov was drafted 15th overall in 2000 and never signed an NHL contract. Kostin was drafted 31st overall in 2017 and missed almost the entire year with a bad shoulder. Smirnov had the same MHL production as Podkolzin, was drafted 12th overall in 2000 and had an NHL career that lasted 52 games over 2 years. 

 

Even if you want to throw away the comparables from over 10 years ago who technically played in another league (which is fairly reasonable), the only player that Podkolzin compares favourably with was one who was one pick away from the 2nd round and had a major surgery in his draft year. I'm not sure how you can tell someone not be concerned with his production right now. His VHL production has improved from last year, but it still trails behind Nuchushkin's draft year pace. 

 

The good news is that a large part of Podkolzin's contributions to his team are away from the scoresheet with things like forechecking, physical play and defensive awareness. Whether that's worth drafting one of the lowest scoring prospects relative to his peers this century at 10th overall is up to you. 

 

Artyom Manukyan is the all time MHL leader for points in a draft year, stats aren't everything at that level. 

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7 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Artyom Manukyan is the all time MHL leader for points in a draft year, stats aren't everything at that level. 

 

Manukyan played 60 games exclusively in the MHL that year. Nobody on that list played more than 42. That's 18 extra games to pile up points, which is considerably more playing time. 

 

Kuznetsov would have broken that record if he scored at that pace for same amount of games, but he was busy playing in the KHL.

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6 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Manukyan played 60 games exclusively in the MHL that year. Nobody on that list played more than 42. That's 18 extra games to pile up points, which is considerably more playing time. 

 

Kuznetsov would have broken that record if he scored at that pace for same amount of games, but he was busy playing in the KHL.

Podkolzin also only played 12 games in MHL likely after just turning 17 years old and had 8 points and was a +9, not terrible. I would like to see more offensively from him too though, but too early to panic in my opinion. He is not in the mold of a Goldobin type player that needs to put up tons of points to be effective.   

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25 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I stated in my post that I didn't look at KHL production because Podkolzin only played like 30 seconds over 3 games or something in the KHL in his draft year. Most players who have gone on to have notable NHL careers have had some sort of impact in the KHL in their draft years, so if you want to add that into the comparisons it would only look worse for Podkolzin. Podkolzin's in game usage in the VHL and MHL was not unusual, so that's fair game. 

He's only played 2 games (4pts) in the MHL this year (which suggests that he has surpassed that level) and last year only 12 (8pts) which would look very intriguing if it was equated to a full season.  Especially if you keep his age in mind.

 

His current VHL stats are 7pts in 12 games (out of possible 23); even at that he is 11th in points on a team where the players are much older.  We have to take into account that he barely has a chance to play with consistent linemates before he is shuffled off to another team.   I would think his #s would be pretty darn good if he was on a Jr team in Canada.

 

25 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Nobody is debating whether or not Podkolzin brings value to his team away from the scoresheet. His defensive awareness, tenacity and strength are well recognized. There are people who are skeptical as to whether that is worthy of a top 10 pick though. There are people who see a similar career path to Virtanen. Both were virtual locks to be NHL players at the draft to their physical tools, but the overall upside and ceiling were in question. That's pretty much exactly how the Virtanen pick turned out as there were some players with lower floors but higher ceilings taken after him. I could see the same thing happening with this pick as there were players who I felt had higher ceilings who were taken after him. 

I don't see much similarity in these players other than being N/S.  Virtanen simply doesn't have the complete package or the character that Pod has.  If he did, he'd be a permanent fixture in the top 6.

 

25 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

Why are you bringing Rick Nash into this? That came out of nowhere. If Nash had that defensive ability and tenacity he would have been an even better player than he already was, but if Podkolzin had Nash's offensive ability he would also be a way better player right now. Nash was a 1st overall pick, NHL captain, consistent 20-30 goal scorer, 2 time Olympic gold medal winner with Canada who stepped out of the league after concussion issues. That whole comment is just mind boggling. 

Yeah, no...not Nash, who was 1st overall in his draft.  Not a good comparison.

 

25 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

Dorsett was someone who brought character, tenacity and strength to the team. He cost a 3rd rounder to acquire, not a top 10 pick. 

Now you are trolling.

 

I think Pod will become a very unique player for the Canucks and will be a huge factor in creating a team that is very difficult to play against.  The way he moves the puck and holds it in the o zone is exciting; especially factoring in the # of takeaways and his aggressive puck retrieval.  He is a complete package and his overall competitive nature is foreboding.

 

He's is learning to be a power forward in the midst of adult players and lack of consistent teammates.  I don't expect him to put up huge points, but I do believe he will end up being a player that will be invaluable in the top 6. 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

He's only played 2 games (4pts) in the MHL this year (which suggests that he has surpassed that level) and last year only 12 (8pts) which would look very intriguing if it was equated to a full season.  Especially if you keep his age in mind.

 

His current VHL stats are 7pts in 12 games (out of possible 23); even at that he is 11th in points on a team where the players are much older.  We have to take into account that he barely has a chance to play with consistent linemates before he is shuffled off to another team.   I would think his #s would be pretty darn good if he was on a Jr team in Canada.

 

I don't see much similarity in these players other than being N/S.  Virtanen simply doesn't have the complete package or the character that Pod has.  If he did, he'd be a permanent fixture in the top 6.

 

Yeah, no...not Nash, who was 1st overall in his draft.  Not a good comparison.

 

Now you are trolling.

 

I think Pod will become a very unique player for the Canucks and will be a huge factor in creating a team that is very difficult to play against.  The way he moves the puck and holds it in the o zone is exciting; especially factoring in the # of takeaways and his aggressive puck retrieval.  He is a complete package and his overall competitive nature is foreboding.

 

He's is learning to be a power forward in the midst of adult players and lack of consistent teammates.  I don't expect him to put up huge points, but I do believe he will end up being a player that will be invaluable in the top 6. 

 

 

 

Last year's MHL totals would not be intriguing over a full season if he stayed at the same pace. If he improved his scoring rate considerably as the year went on, then that would be more intriguing, but there isn't much that indicates that would be the case. His scoring has improved from last year to this year, but not in any meaningful way relative to his comparables so far. As I said, he's still behind Nichushkin's draft year VHL pace. Most players who have a considerable impact move on the KHL pretty much full time by their draft +1 year, so there isn't much in terms of comparables there as Podkolzin plays extremely limited and sheltered minutes. Basically, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for his KHL production for this entire season. 

 

If you want to say he didn't have consistent linemates last year that's fine, but he has also been at a lower level than pretty much all of his comparables and hasn't looked out of place as someone who's too good for that league. Shouldn't a top 10 caliber player be able to generate offense himself in a league that is considered worse than the CHL?

 

There's also nothing that indicates Podkolzin would have scored more in North America last year, people just say that because the Russian leagues are unfamilar and it makes them feel better. The rough conversion factors estimate something along the lines of 50 points over a full year in the WHL. In other words, absolutely abysmal production for a top 10 forward. I'm pretty sure that would be the lowest scoring rate of any top 10 forward in the last 15 years, excluding major injuries and other extreme factors. 

 

I wasn't trying to compare Virtanen and Podkolzin style wise, but in terms of the situation surrounding them and their general career paths. Virtanen was a high floor, low ceiling pick who had players with lower floors and higher ceilings behind him turn out better. Podkolzin looks like a high floor, low ceiling player who could have lower floor, higher ceiling players taken behind him turn out better. That's the extent to which I was comparing them. 

 

For example, I see Podkolzin's ceiling as a DeBrusk type player. DeBrusk is a good player, but there's a reason why we make fun of Boston for passing on Connor, Barzal, Boeser, Chabot, etc. 

 

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Podkolzin will have a Dorsett type career. I think he'll be a fair bit better than that. I was just trying to say that if the goal is to acquire someone who is strong, tenacious and defensively conscious, I would have rather spent a 3rd round pick to acquire it than a top 10 pick.

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2 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Last year's MHL totals would not be intriguing over a full season if he stayed at the same pace. If he improved his scoring rate considerably as the year went on, then that would be more intriguing, but there isn't much that indicates that would be the case. His scoring has improved from last year to this year, but not in any meaningful way relative to his comparables so far. As I said, he's still behind Nichushkin's draft year VHL pace. Most players who have a considerable impact move on the KHL pretty much full time by their draft +1 year, so there isn't much in terms of comparables there as Podkolzin plays extremely limited and sheltered minutes. Basically, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for his KHL production for this entire season. 

 

If you want to say he didn't have consistent linemates last year that's fine, but he has also been at a lower level than pretty much all of his comparables and hasn't looked out of place as someone who's too good for that league. Shouldn't a top 10 caliber player be able to generate offense himself in a league that is considered worse than the CHL?

 

There's also nothing that indicates Podkolzin would have scored more in North America last year, people just say that because the Russian leagues are unfamilar and it makes them feel better. The rough conversion factors estimate something along the lines of 50 points over a full year in the WHL. In other words, absolutely abysmal production for a top 10 forward. I'm pretty sure that would be the lowest scoring rate of any top 10 forward in the last 15 years, excluding major injuries and other extreme factors. 

 

I wasn't trying to compare Virtanen and Podkolzin style wise, but in terms of the situation surrounding them and their general career paths. Virtanen was a high floor, low ceiling pick who had players with lower floors and higher ceilings behind him turn out better. Podkolzin looks like a high floor, low ceiling player who could have lower floor, higher ceiling players taken behind him turn out better. That's the extent to which I was comparing them. 

 

For example, I see Podkolzin's ceiling as a DeBrusk type player. DeBrusk is a good player, but there's a reason why we make fun of Boston for passing on Connor, Barzal, Boeser, Chabot, etc. 

 

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Podkolzin will have a Dorsett type career. I think he'll be a fair bit better than that. I was just trying to say that if the goal is to acquire someone who is strong, tenacious and defensively conscious, I would have rather spent a 3rd round pick to acquire it than a top 10 pick.

I was thinking maybe a worse Russian Landeskog.

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Bob Gainey was never a big scorer but Montreal picked him first round in 73 or 74. He was an elite defensive forward, became captain of the Canadiens and if I remember correctly, the Russian coach said he was the best player (ahead of Lafleur, Lemaire, Shutt, Robinson, etc) in that Canadiens vs Russia New Year Eve's match.  I see Podz as a Gainey/Burrows hybrid.

 

And he was also current asst coach Doug Jarvis' partner-in-crime.

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1 hour ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Last year's MHL totals would not be intriguing over a full season if he stayed at the same pace. If he improved his scoring rate considerably as the year went on, then that would be more intriguing, but there isn't much that indicates that would be the case. His scoring has improved from last year to this year, but not in any meaningful way relative to his comparables so far. As I said, he's still behind Nichushkin's draft year VHL pace. Most players who have a considerable impact move on the KHL pretty much full time by their draft +1 year, so there isn't much in terms of comparables there as Podkolzin plays extremely limited and sheltered minutes. Basically, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for his KHL production for this entire season. 

 

If you want to say he didn't have consistent linemates last year that's fine, but he has also been at a lower level than pretty much all of his comparables and hasn't looked out of place as someone who's too good for that league. Shouldn't a top 10 caliber player be able to generate offense himself in a league that is considered worse than the CHL?

 

There's also nothing that indicates Podkolzin would have scored more in North America last year, people just say that because the Russian leagues are unfamilar and it makes them feel better. The rough conversion factors estimate something along the lines of 50 points over a full year in the WHL. In other words, absolutely abysmal production for a top 10 forward. I'm pretty sure that would be the lowest scoring rate of any top 10 forward in the last 15 years, excluding major injuries and other extreme factors. 

 

I wasn't trying to compare Virtanen and Podkolzin style wise, but in terms of the situation surrounding them and their general career paths. Virtanen was a high floor, low ceiling pick who had players with lower floors and higher ceilings behind him turn out better. Podkolzin looks like a high floor, low ceiling player who could have lower floor, higher ceiling players taken behind him turn out better. That's the extent to which I was comparing them. 

 

For example, I see Podkolzin's ceiling as a DeBrusk type player. DeBrusk is a good player, but there's a reason why we make fun of Boston for passing on Connor, Barzal, Boeser, Chabot, etc. 

 

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Podkolzin will have a Dorsett type career. I think he'll be a fair bit better than that. I was just trying to say that if the goal is to acquire someone who is strong, tenacious and defensively conscious, I would have rather spent a 3rd round pick to acquire it than a top 10 pick.

Still what was Boston thinking lol. It was the fact that they had 3 consecutive picks in the first round and the clear BPA was Barzal and then Connor. I won’t fault them for Chabot because I believe the dman they did take at the draft was ranked slightly ahead. Going consensus BPA they should have walked away with Barzal, Connor and Zboril.

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