[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Pete M]

6 hours ago, Baggins said:

Once again, cash strapped or not, this was an easily moved asset that several teams would have interest in. There's no way they would get fleeced trading a quality player with no trade restrictions. Other teams that could use such a player aren't going to let another team get him for peanuts when they could easily offer more and still be in a reasonable price tag. Honestly, as a GM, would you let another team obtain a quality player for peanuts, that you could use, simply because the team moving him needed cap space?

to understand the trade value, a value needs to be put on the player (JT Miller). If the comparable values are Evander Kane, Duchene, etc, then Canucks got a killer deal, if JT Miller keeps getting better (since he is just entering his prime with a contract that is cap friendly).

[Gaudette Celly]

39 minutes ago, Pete M said:

...by making this trade, it seems that now management does not have the appetite for a methodical rebuild (and it's only been one year since the Sedins have retired)....I say methodical (premature) because the up coming core of our "D" are only now starting to making the roster...they still need time to develop at the NHL level...JB has now created pressure for this development, unless he goes out and gets two stud "D" men to round out the core.

Wait a minute.  The narrative out there is that Benning's job is on the line because the team is still in the lotto and should have been better by now, i.e. he's incompetent. 

 

Can't have it both ways.  Either the "right way" is slow and methodical, in which case Benning was doing it right and should be extended even if the team continues to miss the playoffs, or that the team needs and should be a playoff team shortly which involves making moves to push it forward.  If the former, just exactly how long is this "methodical" to take, considering we're now 4-5 years in, and with Horvat now hitting his mid-20s?

[khay]

12 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

Didn't you know, we gave up two firsts?

 

It's kindof funny how some haven't thought this through, including people in the media who have made this same false speculation.  If we make the playoffs next year the pick goes 17+ to Tampa and the trade is done.  But that's not the right narrative, we must first assume that Canucks won't make the playoffs either year and it will not only be a lottery pick but moreover that Tampa will win the lotto with it.  Of course they also ignore how Colorado had the best chance with Ottawa's yet dropped the full 3 spots, but we must consider worst-case scenarios no matter how remote the odds.

 

Evidently it's important to dig up any possible negative outcome, even if it means changing the trade itself.

 

 

I guess you are using sarcasm to point out how people assume the worst for the Canucks. 

 

Yeah, so we gave up one first rounder: https://www.tsn.ca/tradecentre/trade-tracker.

 

If we make the playoffs in 2020, TBL gets our 2020 first. As you say, it will be 17th+ overall. If we miss the playoffs in 2020, then they get unprotected 2021 first. People are concerned that we miss the playoffs in 2021 and our pick will win the lottery. Low change that happens but you never know.

 

Wait, is this the reason why people are angry? They thought that we gave up 2 first rounders or that they give too much weight on the least probable outcome?

 

[stawns]

4 hours ago, khay said:

Basically, what he is saying is that if we make the playoffs in 2020 or 2021, then the cost is fair since it's JT Miller for mid-late first + 3rd.

 

On the flip side, if we miss the playoffs in both of those years and the pick we give up in 2021 turns out to be a top 10 pick, we lose the trade. If it turns out to be a top 5 pick or a lottery pick, then we lose big. 

 

JT Miller is certainly a good addition to the team. But I don't like this type of trade that depends on team's future performance as it brings way too much uncertainty. It's like one of those financial derivatives (i.e., call/put options).

 

Some fans are mad because of the risk factor. Look at Ottawa, they were within one game of SCF, so they traded for Duchene to help them over the top. Well they got to pick 4th overall in two consecutive years and one of those 4th overall isn't going to be playing for them.

 

There is no denying that this was a bit of a desperation move by JB to try and improve the roster now. His job is on the line and really, the only tradable assets that can get us a top 6F/top 4D are future 1st rounders. I understand the move, but I don't like the risk. 

 

Now, I hope JB can sign Panarin and get us a top 4D and for his sake, EP, Boeser, and Hughes take a huge step forward as well as JV, Gaud, and Juolevi. If we make the playoffs, this risk will have been worth it.

 

I just don't see it that way.  It was a moderately steep price, but he went after a pretty sure thing.......a big, consistent scoring winger on an excellent deal for 4 more years, without giving up a first this year and lottery protected next year. 

 

That doesn't seem desperate to me........it seems like someone who believes his young core of drafted players can win in the next two years.  To me, the move was a vote of confidence, not one of a GM grasping for a life raft 

[Pete M]

9 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Wait a minute.  The narrative out there is that Benning's job is on the line because the team is still in the lotto and should have been better by now, i.e. he's incompetent. 

 

Can't have it both ways.  Either the "right way" is slow and methodical, in which case Benning was doing it right and should be extended even if the team continues to miss the playoffs, or that the team needs and should be a playoff team shortly which involves making moves to push it forward.  If the former, just exactly how long is this "methodical" to take, considering we're now 4-5 years in, and with Horvat now hitting his mid-20s?

exactly, furthermore what pressure from ownership was there when the Sedins were on the team to stay competitive...thereby, delaying the true rebuild and getting zero assets for two HoF players...realistically, the on-ice rebuild started at the beginning of last year...so we are one year in, and no fruit (Dmen) of JB's tenure have made the team yet...(OJ, Tryamkin, Woo, Hughes, Brisbois...none were on the roster last year....if ownership is holding a gun to JB's head and making him make premature moves, then that is on ownership...if Canucks are not in the playoff this coming year, is JB's tenure done? If it is, then some other puppet will reap the reward of JB's tenure.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Pete M

[khay]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

I just don't see it that way.  It was a moderately steep price, but he went after a pretty sure thing.......a big, consistent scoring winger on an excellent deal for 4 more years, without giving up a first this year and lottery protected next year. 

 

That doesn't seem desperate to me........it seems like someone who believes his young core of drafted players can win in the next two years.  To me, the move was a vote of confidence, not one of a GM grasping for a life raft 

You are probably right. More of a calculated risk rather than a desperate move.

 

More I learn about Miller, more I like his addition. I somehow assumed that he is under 200 pounds but he is 218!! More I think about it, he brings exactly what EP and Boeser needs on their line.

 

Someone raised a concern that Miller is a center so maybe he sucks on the wing. In that case, we can shift EP to LW, who has proven that he is even better scorer on LW.

 

EP-Miller-Boeser or Miller-EP-Boeser.

 

Either way, we have a first line.

 

 

 

 

[Spoosh]

I say this once a year. CDC is a horrible place to be during the summer. I hang around until July 2nd and then I take a vacation as the stupidity rises to new levels about then. This year it seems to start early.

 

I loved to come here for news on trades as they often came out a bit early here vs. TSN or Sportsnet etc. Now we get the news off twitter and ’discuss’ them from there on. By page 3 the disussion is no longer on topic, it’s insult after another and people crying out loud like infants. It is a discussion board, we know, and everyone is entitled to an opinion. But in general all that looks like is a below average fan base. 

 

I think this board should be for positive stuff and motivation between fans. People here (minus just a few members) are just making a fool out of themselves. 

 

I personally like the trade. The only thing I dont like about it is the excitement a 1st round choice gives me. The anticipation, the potential. Other than that it’s just a gamble. Now we know what we get. I’m more than fine with this move. Bring on the season. Ok, july 1st and then the season!

 

Spoosh

[sonoman]

9 minutes ago, Spoosh said:

I say this once a year. CDC is a horrible place to be during the summer. I hang around until July 2nd and then I take a vacation as the stupidity rises to new levels about then. This year it seems to start early.

 

I loved to come here for news on trades as they often came out a bit early here vs. TSN or Sportsnet etc. Now we get the news off twitter and ’discuss’ them from there on. By page 3 the disussion is no longer on topic, it’s insult after another and people crying out loud like infants. It is a discussion board, we know, and everyone is entitled to an opinion. But in general all that looks like is a below average fan base. 

 

I think this board should be for positive stuff and motivation between fans. People here (minus just a few members) are just making a fool out of themselves. 

 

I personally like the trade. The only thing I dont like about it is the excitement a 1st round choice gives me. The anticipation, the potential. Other than that it’s just a gamble. Now we know what we get. I’m more than fine with this move. Bring on the season. Ok, july 1st and then the season!

 

Spoosh

Agree with most of this.  July-August are the months to really avoid CDC

[Pete M]

4 hours ago, babalu said:

Yeah come on Benning. We should be able to get  him for sutter, hutton and a third.

lol

[MoneypuckOverlord]

Very good trade.

 

back to back almost 60 points while averaging 16 minutes per game not top line minutes and not on the top power play units.  Posted 47 last season as a 3rd line player behind a stacked Tampa team, which is also insane as 50 points itself is considered productive.

 

so in other words we trade do our 4th string goalie a 3rd and a 1st for a 26 year old who has 4 years left.

 

ive seen teams give up much more for pending ufa’S at trade deadline.  That said losing a 1st hurts and our pick cannot be a bottom 10 pick but it’s a good trade.

 

we also cannot be rebuilding forever. It’s time to make a move and try to make the playoffs. You can’t expect us to stockpile top 10 picks forever. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by MoneypuckOverlord

[Pete M]

5 hours ago, Drakrami said:

What's with this talk JT Miller is a great player etc... I see someone who's failed to help a stacked up Lightning team do any damage in the playoffs 2 years in a row, demoted to bottom 6 and gave up on by trading away. Sure, nice top 6 for us. But probably not a big difference maker especially with our defense so crappy. 

double edge sword...this is the other edge of the sword.

[Pete M]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Great post.   Got to admit I was in shock when I heard the trade and it took some time and some research for it to soak it.  Don’t see JT Miller a lot so for a lot us including me he’s a bit of an unknown.   Knew TB coveted him when they picked him up though...seemed like a guy that would help push them over the top.  And he’s helped them do that for sure.   To me we’ve added another Horvat type that can move around where he’s needed....that’s worth a first and a third every time.   What would we want back if we traded Horvat in a year or two ?  Similar sIze, game (both have clutch abilities and leadership qualities) and stats.   Probably a lot more then we paid for JT Miller, I’ve heard he’s worth a number one RHD many times on the CDC. 

 

We cant build a team just through the draft, just ask EDM and they had what five first overalls? 

 

If Bennings done for now then we know he’s steering the boat towards a modest improvement but likely another lottery ticket next season.  If he continues and switches his attention to our defense next then we know he’s working towards improving our team at an accelerated rate now, to take the most advantage he can during  Hughes, EP, Boesers and Horvats second contract window as that’s when he will have the most cap space with this core.  

 

Wait three years from now sure we will continue to have a steady stream of quality guys coming in but we’d also not be creating the best environment for them to succeed ala EDM and wasting some of their early prime etc.

 

Like your comments on what Horvat must think about this....he’s going to take a lot of pressure off the entire top six and the team for that matter.   For now I’d like to see him on the LW to help or first line...sure every guy on the team is stoked too.

 

Once Podz arrives our top six will be sick...somehow Benning did it one more time, and this time at 10th.  A possession wizard as he “gets you” if you have the puck either takes it away or forces a bad play on their part.  One source called him a “lion” because of how he plays the game.   Our top six is going to be very, very difficult to play against in a couple years. 

 

Fear and upset has turned to excitement for this fan over the trade, don’t think this will do anything but help the team make the next step, keeps the cap structure in great shape too.

Calgary are shaking in their boots right now thinking about the future...Podz will be a beast for us, but also consider this, Hoglander is arguably better than the pick Calgary took at 26 OA....and we also have Podz.

[TheCerebral1]

Overall, despite a poor season on a great team JT Miller comes with a lot of intangibles.  Able to slot in anywhere in the top six at all positions, as well as being a Swiss Army Knife utility jewel.  He's able to kill penalties, use his speed to get into the tight places, and can play the wall.  He's locked in at 26 for four more years at a VERY flexible cap hit of 5.25M.  So for all these reasons, I call it a win. Mark Mazanec, had no place on this team and provides Tampa Bay an alternative goalie for the AHL and a spot starter for injury.  The third round pick is fine, and if we're being realistic, the Canucks will have a hard time making the playoffs.  A lot will have to go right.  Starting with Edler and staying healthy, especially the latter.  In addition, they will need to utilize the UFA market to fill a spot in the top six for defense, and some upgrades on both the bottom six forward group and another mix forward.  Overall, it's a solid B trade for me. 

[Alflives]

9 minutes ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

Very good trade.

 

back to back almost 60 points while averaging 16 minutes per game not top line minutes and not on the top power play units.  Posted 47 last season as a 3rd line player behind a stacked Tampa team, which is also insane as 50 points itself is considered productive.

 

so in other words we trade do our 4th string goalie a 3rd and a 1st for a 26 year old who has 4 years left.

 

ive seen teams give up much more for pending ufa’S at trade deadline.  That said losing a 1st hurts and our pick cannot be a bottom 10 pick but it’s a good trade.

 

we also cannot be rebuilding forever. It’s time to make a move and try to make the playoffs. You can’t expect us to stockpile top 10 picks forever. 

Our pick can’t be bottom 10?  So if we make the playoffs next season, and win a round, the pick moves to 2021?  I don’t think that’s right.  

[DrJockitch]

49 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

Didn't you know, we gave up two firsts?

 

It's kindof funny how some haven't thought this through, including people in the media who have made this same false speculation.  If we make the playoffs next year the pick goes 17+ to Tampa and the trade is done.  But that's not the right narrative, we must first assume that Canucks won't make the playoffs either year and it will not only be a lottery pick but moreover that Tampa will win the lotto with it.  Of course they also ignore how Colorado had the best chance with Ottawa's yet dropped the full 3 spots, but we must consider worst-case scenarios no matter how remote the odds.

 

Evidently it's important to dig up any possible negative outcome, even if it means changing the trade itself.

 

 

Haha, woops got that flipped in my head. 

Obviously not a terribly serious comment given my expectation that we will give them 31 next year. 

 

[86Viking]

1 minute ago, TheCerebral1 said:

Overall, despite a poor season on a great team JT Miller comes with a lot of intangibles.  Able to slot in anywhere in the top six at all positions, as well as being a Swiss Army Knife utility jewel.  He's able to kill penalties, use his speed to get into the tight places, and can play the wall.  He's locked in at 26 for four more years at a VERY flexible cap hit of 5.25M.  So for all these reasons, I call it a win. Mark Mazanec, had no place on this team and provides Tampa Bay an alternative goalie for the AHL and a spot starter for injury.  The third round pick is fine, and if we're being realistic, the Canucks will have a hard time making the playoffs.  A lot will have to go right.  Starting with Edler and staying healthy, especially the latter.  In addition, they will need to utilize the UFA market to fill a spot in the top six for defense, and some upgrades on both the bottom six forward group and another mix forward.  Overall, it's a solid B trade for me. 

It is not a bad bad trade, too bad we could have included a cheap F contract going back like Granny, Schaller or Spooner 50% retained just to clear a spot on the roster. I think we have 17 or 18 F listed on cap geek

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

Overall, despite a poor season on a great team JT Miller comes with a lot of intangibles.  Able to slot in anywhere in the top six at all positions, as well as being a Swiss Army Knife utility jewel.  He's able to kill penalties, use his speed to get into the tight places, and can play the wall.  He's locked in at 26 for four more years at a VERY flexible cap hit of 5.25M.  So for all these reasons, I call it a win. Mark Mazanec, had no place on this team and provides Tampa Bay an alternative goalie for the AHL and a spot starter for injury.  The third round pick is fine, and if we're being realistic, the Canucks will have a hard time making the playoffs.  A lot will have to go right.  Starting with Edler and staying healthy, especially the latter.  In addition, they will need to utilize the UFA market to fill a spot in the top six for defense, and some upgrades on both the bottom six forward group and another mix forward.  Overall, it's a solid B trade for me. 

JTM had a poor season last year?  

[BobbyClarke]

A lot of people look at the PK Subban trade and assume the assets NJ gave up to get him make this a bad trade.  But its a totally different situation.  PK's cap hit is $9M/yr.  And that is a lot of money to tie up for that particular guy.

 

Getting Miller at $5M allows us the chance to go after a D Man like Myers.  As yourself, would you rather have $9M in cap space tied up for PK, or would you rather have roughly 12M for both JT Miller and Myers.

 

As for Miller himself, he's a 50 point guy with 14-15 minutes average ice time.  He plays a heavier game and seems like he would be a pretty good compliment to EP and BB.  He worked his way up the lineup in Tampa, and he's only 26.  That is worth a (non lottery) first round pick easy.

 

And as I said before, free agents want to get paid and they want to go to a winner and be in a good situation.  Getting JT helps us.  So how much is that worth?  Depends on who we can sign in FA.

[Hogs & Podz]

32 minutes ago, Spoosh said:

I say this once a year. CDC is a horrible place to be during the summer. I hang around until July 2nd and then I take a vacation as the stupidity rises to new levels about then. This year it seems to start early.

 

I loved to come here for news on trades as they often came out a bit early here vs. TSN or Sportsnet etc. Now we get the news off twitter and ’discuss’ them from there on. By page 3 the disussion is no longer on topic, it’s insult after another and people crying out loud like infants. It is a discussion board, we know, and everyone is entitled to an opinion. But in general all that looks like is a below average fan base. 

 

I think this board should be for positive stuff and motivation between fans. People here (minus just a few members) are just making a fool out of themselves. 

 

I personally like the trade. The only thing I dont like about it is the excitement a 1st round choice gives me. The anticipation, the potential. Other than that it’s just a gamble. Now we know what we get. I’m more than fine with this move. Bring on the season. Ok, july 1st and then the season!

 

Spoosh

+1

Couldn't agree more!

[rekker]

I wonder how many teams would of offered a lot for PK. Fans can say all they want but where there is smoke theres fire. I personally can't stand guys like him on my team. Hockey is all about team, best team sport on the planet. When I played my teammates were as important as I was. PK is about himself, spotlights, and his dumb hats. He's not even good defensively. Easily the most overrated player in the NHL IMHO.