[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[mpt]

Just now, coryberg said:

Let me dumb this down to your level. You say it's even odds for us to make the playoffs or miss them. So flip a coin, then flip it again. The odds of you losing once are 50%.... the odds of losing twice in a row are 25%. Therefor the odds of you winning at least once is 75%.

 

75% odds are "easily" better.

 

That is under the assumption that its a coin flip both years, would you say a team that has missed the playoffs 4 years in a row has a 50% chance of making it?  By that logic that every year is a coin flip we’ve defied laws of probability.  

 

Keep up with the personal insults though, makes you look like your point is more valid when you sling mud.  In reality though, just makes you look like a tool.

[Gurn]

35 minutes ago, DryiceX said:

Hell, Jersey didnt even give up a first to get Schneider from the Canucks

[Gaudette Celly]

1 hour ago, ilduce39 said:

If I have a gripe about this trade, it’s exactly this.  I’d have rather spent that prime asset on a 20-something RHD.

 

If Miller becomes a “Burrows” or “Morrison” complementary piece for Brock and Petey though I guess it’s worth it.  The complementary player who pushes a pair of stars over the top.  

 

Edit: to clarify, “worth it” as in more worth it than a top 4 d.  I still think this is a decent trade; I’m just fixated on the back end if the goal is playoffs in 2 years.

Problem here is the underlying assumption that Benning has both not been pursuing that and that he did not offer that "prime asset" already for the likes of Risto/Ghost/Barrie.  It's been no secret that Benning has wanted a PMD/PPQB RHD as his #1 goal for at least two years now, so no small jump to believe he has explored every avenue and offered up any asset he's willing to move, including those he just moved for Miller.  Rest assured that doesn't somehow take him out of that pursuit, just as the purported high prices over the weekend won't either.  Things do not have to happen in a certain order nor with specific assets here nor there.  It's going to get done, just a matter of getting the right deal for the right player and hopefully we'll all agree that it was well worth the wait.

[Brad Marchand]

Arizona traded the 7th overall pick in 2017 and Tony DeAngelo for Derek Stepan, whose career high at the time was 57 points (to be totally fair, Antti Raanta was also a part of that trade).

 

The price for JT Miller might have been higher that what people are comfortable with, but it's not without precedent, either.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Brad Marchand

[danaimo]

38 minutes ago, DryiceX said:

 Hell, Jersey didnt even give up a first to get Schneider from the Canucks

Maybe it was all a dream.  How did we manage to draft Horvat?  I'm pretty sure Gillis didn't sneak up onto the draft stage when no one was looking.  Have you never heard those now famous words from Gary Bettman "We have a trade to announce.  I think you're gonna want to hear this!" 

[ilduce39]

2 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Problem here is the underlying assumption that Benning has both not been pursuing that and that he did not offer that "prime asset" already for the likes of Risto/Ghost/Barrie.  It's been no secret that Benning has wanted a PMD/PPQB RHD as his #1 goal for at least two years now, so no small jump to believe he has explored every avenue and offered up any asset he's willing to move, including those he just moved for Miller.  Rest assured that doesn't somehow take him out of that pursuit, just as the purported high prices over the weekend won't either.  Things do not have to happen in a certain order nor with specific assets here nor there.  It's going to get done, just a matter of getting the right deal for the right player and hopefully we'll all agree that it was well worth the wait.

Yeah, I’m still hopeful we’ll make something happen.  Lots of time between now and camp.

[coryberg]

 

5 minutes ago, mpt said:

That is under the assumption that its a coin flip both years, would you say a team that has missed the playoffs 4 years in a row has a 50% chance of making it?  By that logic that every year is a coin flip we’ve defied laws of probability.  

 

Keep up with the personal insults though, makes you look like your point is more valid when you sling mud.  In reality though, just makes you look like a tool.

Mpt is preaching reality... now I've seen it all.

[Jester13]

19 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

It just seems like a very steep price.  Maybe it was the sportsnet radio hosts that got me worked up. Lol. I do like the player . Maybe it will turn out to be good return in time . 

I have to agree with those who say that we should be so lucky to use the conditional 1st to draft someone as good as Miller, so better to get a Miller now for four years and compliment our top young players now when it fits so perfectly with our timeline. He's everything we need and he fills a massive hole in our lineup, and we're playoff bound with him, so I think it was a fair price to pay for someone like him.

 

There's also still so much time left to make more moves and get a 1st, or more, back. Jim will be unloading players for picks soon, book it, and adding to our backend. His plan is coming to fruition, and the reward is going to be glorious for us fans. We're so poised to do some major damage soon.

 

[AB72]

7 minutes ago, mpt said:

That is under the assumption that its a coin flip both years, would you say a team that has missed the playoffs 4 years in a row has a 50% chance of making it?  By that logic that every year is a coin flip we’ve defied laws of probability.  

 

Keep up with the personal insults though, makes you look like your point is more valid when you sling mud.  In reality though, just makes you look like a tool.

You are chasing your tail sir. Not a good look for you.

[Gaudette Celly]

3 minutes ago, mpt said:

That is under the assumption that its a coin flip both years, would you say a team that has missed the playoffs 4 years in a row has a 50% chance of making it?  By that logic that every year is a coin flip we’ve defied laws of probability. 

Does the reality of context, pattern, and trend have any meaning to you?  The team has improved every year in that time, and is clearly on an upward trajectory, being in a playoff position up until a month left in the season last year.  Or do you think this team has been exactly the same for 4 years and will continue be so for at least the next two?  Because that's exactly what you're basing your contention upon, and why it's directly contradicting reality.  By your logic, the Canucks will never again make the playoffs and New Jersey will continue to win the draft lottery 2 out of every 3 years.

[189lb enforcers?]

1 hour ago, Stelar said:

So after sleeping on this I am still not pumped about giving up a first. But let’s be honest, Bo, Brock, EP and Quinn aren’t interested in first round picks. They want to win games. Miller helps us win games.

 

 

We owe it to the young core to get better. 

 

I suppose it comes down on how we evaluate the “core” and what kind of rebuild we had envisioned before this trade. 

 

Personally, I don’t think the core is done being assembled yet and would have rather kept the draft picks. This is not to say I am against this trade - I doubt anyone reading would imagine that I’d be against bring character and toughness into the top 6. Still, the trade was a minor surprise and arguably a KPI and hallmark of this management’s rebuild philosophy. 

 

I’ll offer my musings on the trade and how it relates to my own preferences, which are admittedly unpopular. 

 

As a vocal advocate and member of Team Tank for the past several seasons, it caught several posters here by surprise when I proclaimed that I thought the best chance this roster had at a successful rebuild was to abandon it and go after star UFAs and make tough trades to ride what the past five years of accidental tanks have produced via the first round in the draft. 

 

Miller is a quality player who the Canucks paid a premium for, in the context of a rebuilding team’s only real currency.

 

A year ago I would have disliked this move, but I think the team is too far away with their prospect pool’s capacity to deliver these type of support players to stall-out the brilliance and youth of the most recent first rounders, so key trades and free agency are a means to fill in the roster gaps left from the misfortunes, or mismanagement, of the original rebuild. I will name the ironic strategy of the storied age-gap replaceathon as one such contribtor for the gap in the prospect pipeline. 

 

And what of the annual IR mainstays and annual excuse/reason for the accidental tank jobs? I will use this space to remind us of the definition on insanity, a yearly token post of mine turned-cynical and stale, but worth the note. 

 

With the dawn of this rebuild a good ways off, my last TDL assessment of this roster was that it needed to quickly abandon its *homegrown* goals and supplement the roster with quality, age-appropriate players to insulate Horvat and the kid-core with as a means to speed up the re-thingy with because of the time it would take to holistically repair the holes within in the system, specifically on D and wing. The rebuild hasn’t really worked, outside of the top 7 picks making an impact, but let’s be honest here and admit that EP40 is likely the saviour of this management and our fan-dignity. One player isn’t a rebuild, no offence to QH. 

 

I now give JB the green light to abandon his much-maligned re-thingy, the thing which for many, many days, couldn’t even be mentioned or cross the lips of this management in the first place. Let this trade be the first of several which will serve to remedy the cavitation in the flow supporting prospects to the big club.

 

I also won’t mind if JB continues his stellar management of rewarding FAs with overly generous contracts, as apparently it’s not my money, or so I’ve been reminded of in other discussions here. 

 

At this point, I’d rather salvage this leaky rebuild-vessel by spending quality assets, an absolutely vital currency for rebuilding clubs, to cement in and support the aggregates of the core and lavish FAs, an obvious monitory luxury which needs no explanation here. 

 

I’m happy with the trade and JB can continue to sell the farm to acquire the necessary pieces and to continue to overspend on UFAs and empty the purse for all I care. It’s just as viable or as much of a gamble as his original strategy, which thankfully didn’t work and ultimately resulted in a record run of top draft picks. It’s a shame that that’s all that made the roster thus far though, so, full steam ahead, but don’t Tank anymore, JB.  

Edited June 23, 2019 by 189lb enforcers?

[mpt]

2 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Does the reality of context, pattern, and trend have any meaning to you?  The team has improved every year in that time, and is clearly on an upward trajectory, being in a playoff position up until a month left in the season last year.  Or do you think this team has been exactly the same for 4 years and will continue be so for at least the next two?  Because that's exactly what you're basing your contention upon, and why it's directly contradicting reality.  By your logic, the Canucks will never again make the playoffs and New Jersey will continue to win the draft lottery 2 out of every 3 years.

Thats not what I’m saying at all, there is no guarantee we make the playoffs in the next two years.  People here are making assumptions and you know what happens when you make assumptions.

[mpt]

5 minutes ago, mcchorvirt said:

You are chasing your tail sir. Not a good look for you.

Chasing my tail by saying the 1st rounder we gave up can easily be a lottery pick?  No it still easily can, miss the playoffs both years and its a lottery pick.  Pretty easily to understand.  Maybe that is too difficult for you guys to understand, but it sounds pretty simple to me.

Edited June 23, 2019 by mpt

[JM_]

Hey lets compile a list of 15 year olds to see what we're missing out on, so we can really sink our teeth into the endless bitching about this deal. 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jimmy McGill

[Jester13]

1 minute ago, mpt said:

Chasing my tail by saying the 1st rounder we gave up can easily be a lottery pick?  No it still easily can, miss the playoffs both years and its a lottery pick.  Pretty easily to understand.

Why worry about something that hasn't, and likey won't, happened yet? The probability of this trade being a major win for us is much better than it working out poorly. 

[rekker]

1 hour ago, mll said:

Subban was very appreciated in Nashville.  Poile again said it was a business trade and not a hockey trade - they would have kept him if not the cap.   

 

Laviolette feels the opposite.  For him Subban's defensive game is underrated.  In Nashville he was their shutdown pairing.  

 

Poile started his conference on the trade by saying "The first thing I want to say is that how good P.K. was for the Predators, both on and off the ice".  He says "he was great on the ice and was even more fabulous off the ice".  

You can listen to him here:

https://www.nhl.com/predators/video/poile-discusses-subban-trade/t-277437416/c-68543203  

 

Ya. Funny though, rarely hear that from his former teammates. The vibe I got from his Montreal teammates was good riddance. 

[danaimo]

1 minute ago, mpt said:

Thats not what I’m saying at all, there is no guarantee we make the playoffs in the next two years.  People here are making assumptions and you know what happens when you make assumptions.

In fairness, no has made any guarantees of making the playoffs.  People that you are arguing with are simply making the rational argument that there is a higher probability that the Canucks do make the playoffs at least once in the next 2 years as opposed to them not making the playoffs at all in the next 2 years.  There logic is sound.  Yours is not.  Calm down and do the math.    

[Odd.]

53 minutes ago, DryiceX said:

I'm sure TB will be able to improve that position on their roster now that they have his cap space free and an extra first rounder to trade. I like the guy.. but Vancouver overpaid.  Hell, Jersey didnt even give up a first to get Schneider from the Canucks.. or a first to get subban from Nashville.   It shows the difference between a good Gm vs a mediocre won.

wrong quote

Edited June 23, 2019 by Odd.

[mpt]

1 minute ago, Jester13 said:

Why worry about something that hasn't, and likey won't, happened yet? The probability of this trade being a major win for us is much better than it working out poorly. 

Not sure you can make that conclusion.  I like the player, and dislike the trade

[ForsbergTheGreat]

38 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Fair enough point. We don't know who's actually available to help us on the back end and maybe Benning had inquired about the cost to acquire one and it was simply too steep.

That’s true as we don’t know what else JB has cooking and perhaps another trade is in the works. I just feel it’s going to be hard to make a deal without one of our best valued assets. 

 

I also have a feeling that we are going to take what D are available in UFA and try to force one of them into being the core player we need. Which usually doesn’t turn out well. 

 

Quote

Miller might only be a strong complimentary piece, but if it helps elevate our youth, is that so bad?

It depends on how much it elevates the team. I have a hard time seeing this roster make that much of a playoff splash without that top end D core. So if this move hinders our ability to fill a bigger area of need then it’s not great. But again we will have to see what JB is able to fetch this summer. 

 

 

Quote

We are looking at what should be a mid-late 1st as the condition is set which IMO is not a discounted value. I don't think we get a "core" dman under the same conditions without adding even more.

 

Nope we for sure likely have to add more. But that 1st is a big value and usually a starting point. We don’t have that starting point anymore. 

 

Quote

All I know is we were looking for more grit in the top 6 with speed and skill and we found a guy here. We don't know what the market is like down the road and who might even be available to fill the same role. Benning found a guy that he feels will be a good fit with his age and style of play and is signed to a reasonable deal through some of his best prime years.

I agree we need to get bigger and that’s why a player like miller will be a great fit. Just not sure if we are at the point to be moving picks to fill that hole when other areas have bigger urgency.