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[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick


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44 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Yet another false narrative with zero evidence, the least of which being "coulda shoulda traded the Sedins".  The roster was nearly completely turned over by that point, save for Sedins, Edler, and Tanev.  The rebuild started when Benning got here.  Even the vaunted #shanaplan didn't come in kicking chairs over in their first year, and as I've said before, the current regime has done far FAR more of a rebuild than they did.

Sorry, HW, if anything your narrative is false may be due to short memory...JB came with the intention of making the playoffs, but his signings were unable to get it done...your comment is laughable.

Edited by Pete M
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4 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Everybody understands the potential consequence, just not everybody is a pessimistic wet blanket afraid of a little risk.

True, others are over zealous believers that inflate this team’s reality.

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4 minutes ago, mpt said:

We are entitled to our opinions, you can feel we will make the playoffs, we can wish we’ll make the playoffs. However, this team still has way too many holes need filling for that to be anything to bet on.

You're right, there are still other holes to fill, especially on defense. And yes, the playoffs are not a guarantee.

 

But my point is, even if we miss the playoffs, and subsequently give up a lottery pick, it's still a plus for our team because the return is a solid roster player that can bring physicality and scoring to the top 6.

 

And Jim still isn't done filling the holes, the trade market isn't exhausted yet, and we still have free agency.

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26 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Miller is a quality player who the Canucks paid a premium for, in the context of a rebuilding team’s only real currency.

By what metric?  As has already been shown, they paid less than for recent comparable rentals, which have less value.  Miller is also in his prime, not an aging veteran.  Moreover, the 1st was not only not for this year, but a year from now or even two years from now.  That GREATLY reduces its value.  Is the value of a 2022 pick the same as next year's?  Not even close, no matter what the team.  If it were for this year's 1st and 3rd it would be a far different story and have had significantly more value.  That valuation would be something much more up to open debate, but even then would not be an absolute declared loss. Canucks got him at FAR less than market value.

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8 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Everybody understands the potential consequence, just not everybody is a pessimistic wet blanket afraid of a little risk.

For every Apollo...

 

If we were all like that and on that side of it all... this site would tip over on its side. 

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6 minutes ago, Pete M said:

Sorry, HW, if anything your narrative is false may be due to short memory...JB came with the intention of making the playoffs, but his signings were unable to get it done...your comment is laughable.

No, both he and Linden said that their goal was to make the playoffs, every year.  Not as a specific goal for that team at that time, but that it should and would be the goal for every team.  The signings were made to keep the team competitive and help to shelter the young players that would be coming in, not to make more cup runs.  This has been explained countless times, and was apparent as much at the time as it is now in hindsight.

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1 minute ago, Hutton Wink said:

No, both he and Linden said that their goal was to make the playoffs, every year.  Not as a specific goal for that team at that time, but that it should and would be the goal for every team.  The signings were made to keep the team competitive and help to shelter the young players that would be coming in, not to make more cup runs.  This has been explained countless times, and was apparent as much at the time as it is now in hindsight.

I'm not going to open up old wounds...future is bright!

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I look at it this way..........  

 

It is 2021 (2 years from now)  and we are awaiting the NHL draft.  The Vancouver Canucks have missed the playoffs and the Tampa Bay Lightning get Vancouvers 1st round pick.  Vancouver finished just out of the playoffs and are scheduled to be picking at number 12. The number 12 pick this year was Matthew Boldy a very good "prospect"  He is 18 years old and has committed to Boston College. He attends Boston College for 3 years and turns pro.  He likely needs a year in the AHL or two.  He is now 22 or 23 and it's 2025/26.  May turn out to be a very good player.  Like a JT Miller.  Very likely progression and not a bad thing.  

 

Or you get JT Miller now who is turning 26 and in the prime of his career  Plays all forward positions including Center and was a 2011 1st round pick at #15.  Has been a 40 - 50 point guy without consistent top six minutes and opportunity.  Kills penalties, hits, can pass and score,  is 6'1" and 215 pounds with 4 years of cap certainty at a very reasonable cap hit.  Plus the Canucks need exactly that player right now.  I can live with this.

 

And yes we could potentially be missing out on the next Connor McDavid.  But the odds of that are 1000's to 1.

 

Here are the odds of where Tampa gets to use Vancouvers pick if it's number 12:

 

image.png.2a267cdcfafe5272c026b1a0a6e36f2d.png

                                                 image.png.726f178c6745017fd8fb154a95b4f34f.png

 

 

Edited by Borvat
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33 minutes ago, mpt said:

Not sure you can make that conclusion.  I like the player, and dislike the trade

I like how much improved our team is, and will be, come the start of the season. We were contending last year for a playoff spot, and we will be lightyears better this year than last. This is so clear to see to the point I just shake my head when I read posts that think otherwise.

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4 minutes ago, mpt said:

True, others are over zealous believers that inflate this team’s reality.

 

1 minute ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

For every Apollo...

 

If we were all like that and on that side of it all... this site would tip over on its side. 

I’m a homer but I don’t mind dissenting opinions.

 

There’s a line though: if we miss the playoffs the next two years (fair chance to happen) then the kicker would be to win the draft lottery (or be a cellar dweller) in 2021 that’s a whole lot less likely.  If the team keeps playing for TG, and JB keeps adding pieces, I don’t see it happening.  Being a bubble group and falling short? Sure.  Completely falling apart?  Nah.  I like JB betting on his own horses here.

 

And thus, I can understand some griping about giving up a 1st (always pricey) and targeting a winger (over a d) but arguing as though we just gave up a top 3 pick is  assuming the unlikely and a completely silly stance to take from where I’m sitting.  

 

If you’re assuming we’re still a bottom dweller in 2 years then something’s gone horribly wrong with Bo, Brock, Petey, Quinn, Olli and Jake... and we’re looking to sell some of them to recoup that first anyways. 

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1 hour ago, Pete M said:

off topic, I agree Edler..esque.

5 year deal at $5.5M per year would put him at 34 years old...he will maintain his current pay scale and sprinkle in some performance bonuses...his stats and current cap hit/ contract are below, plus he would be coming back to BC. Good chance Canucks get him for this term and amount.

Capture.PNG

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Can't “sprinkle in some performance bonuses” only available on ELC and +35 contracts. 

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I'm curious as to what value people put on the 1st round draft pick that the Canucks sent to Tampa.  What do people think the intrinsic value of this pick to be?  We cannot assess it's value based on the player that Tampa receive with this pick, because that is in the future. But we can look at the value of the pick itself.  What is the average point total per season for a player taken in the first round?

60+ pts  nope

50-60 pts  getting closer, but not much

40-50 pts   keep going

30-40 pts  lower

20-30 pts   surely more than that!

The average point total per season for a player selected in the first round is 18 pts.  This is based on players drafted in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (reasonable sample.  Go back further and the number falls because more players will have left the league.  Excluded more recent years because most players take 2 to 3 years to get to the NHL after being drafted so this would skew the figure).

For the record JT Miller's number is 30pts per year.  It took him 4 years to become an NHL regular.

Still think we gave up too much?

 

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so i think a lot of overstatement is happening about the conditional 1st rounder going to tampa in this trade

 

surely people do not value the smallish chance allotted to every team that misses the playoffs to win a top 3 draft position to make all of those 15/soon to be 16 1st round draft slots ultra valuable?

 

the value is really only the top 3 draft slots (plus/minus a slot or 2 depending how deep/weak the draft is that year)

 

if that is the case, let's get  a bit real about what the nucks traded away

- no matter where the nucks finish, they never move up in the draft, so if this team improves at all, that pick simply will be worse then then 10oa pic the team used in this years draft - that is just a fact about this particular team, it does not apply to other nhl teams

- if fans of this team seriously believe/worry that the nucks will not improve next season and the season after, the team has serious issues with its new core that should be talked about now, since this defective core not developing to its potential is the only way that conditional pick is going to "burn" this team

- if that conditional pick is not in the top 10, then the nucks have acquired a proven player for a much less then 100% chance at a player who might be better then the acquired player (remember jt was picked 15th in his draft year - if the conditional pick ends up being 15oa when it is used, theoretically a player like jt could/would be chosen - just a full decade later then jt),  the downside for the bolts is that player could end up being worse then jt.

 

this trade is not risk free

but it is pretty damn solid in my view

the conditional 1st round pick really does not have the value so many people on here are suggesting, it has possible better value but also possible lesser value

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

You’re assuming we’re still a bottom dweller in 2 years then something’s gone horribly wrong with Bo, Brock, Petey, Quinn, Olli and Jake... and we’re looking to sell some of them to recoup that first anyways. 

Exactly this. I'm betting on our core guys to continue to grow and be all stars and succeeding, something they're all already doing in such young careers. 

 

Fans that are so negative about the state of our team and any time we make a trade/move will forever find something to complain about.

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1 hour ago, cuporbust said:

It just seems like a very steep price.  Maybe it was the sportsnet radio hosts that got me worked up. Lol. I do like the player . Maybe it will turn out to be good return in time . 

That's what they do. They stir the pot constantly for ratings.

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