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[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

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so i think a lot of overstatement is happening about the conditional 1st rounder going to tampa in this trade

 

surely people do not value the smallish chance allotted to every team that misses the playoffs to win a top 3 draft position to make all of those 15/soon to be 16 1st round draft slots ultra valuable?

 

the value is really only the top 3 draft slots (plus/minus a slot or 2 depending how deep/weak the draft is that year)

 

if that is the case, let's get  a bit real about what the nucks traded away

- no matter where the nucks finish, they never move up in the draft, so if this team improves at all, that pick simply will be worse then then 10oa pic the team used in this years draft - that is just a fact about this particular team, it does not apply to other nhl teams

- if fans of this team seriously believe/worry that the nucks will not improve next season and the season after, the team has serious issues with its new core that should be talked about now, since this defective core not developing to its potential is the only way that conditional pick is going to "burn" this team

- if that conditional pick is not in the top 10, then the nucks have acquired a proven player for a much less then 100% chance at a player who might be better then the acquired player (remember jt was picked 15th in his draft year - if the conditional pick ends up being 15oa when it is used, theoretically a player like jt could/would be chosen - just a full decade later then jt),  the downside for the bolts is that player could end up being worse then jt.

 

this trade is not risk free

but it is pretty damn solid in my view

the conditional 1st round pick really does not have the value so many people on here are suggesting, it has possible better value but also possible lesser value

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

You’re assuming we’re still a bottom dweller in 2 years then something’s gone horribly wrong with Bo, Brock, Petey, Quinn, Olli and Jake... and we’re looking to sell some of them to recoup that first anyways. 

Exactly this. I'm betting on our core guys to continue to grow and be all stars and succeeding, something they're all already doing in such young careers. 

 

Fans that are so negative about the state of our team and any time we make a trade/move will forever find something to complain about.

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1 hour ago, cuporbust said:

It just seems like a very steep price.  Maybe it was the sportsnet radio hosts that got me worked up. Lol. I do like the player . Maybe it will turn out to be good return in time . 

That's what they do. They stir the pot constantly for ratings.

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27 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

No.

 

I’m not surprised anymore when JB hits a foul ball. 

Instead, as in this case, I’m mildly entertained by my own self-interests of another Guddy-like situation, where masculinity is the key acquisition. 

 

I know this is all awash. I’d rather it be done With some level of dignity.

 

The power chock slam is Right up there with all the other prison rape scenes I’d rather not witness anymore. 

 

At least Miller won’t be be a puss out there. That’s a start. 

Slow, expensive clap, for Benning. 

What a weird post.  :frantic:

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2 minutes ago, danaimo said:

I'm curious as to what value people put on the 1st round draft pick that the Canucks sent to Tampa.  What do people think the intrinsic value of this pick to be?  We cannot assess it's value based on the player that Tampa receive with this pick, because that is in the future. But we can look at the value of the pick itself.  What is the average point total per season for a player taken in the first round?

60+ pts  nope

50-60 pts  getting closer, but not much

40-50 pts   keep going

30-40 pts  lower

20-30 pts   surely more than that!

The average point total per season for a player selected in the first round is 18 pts.  This is based on players drafted in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (reasonable sample.  Go back further and the number falls because more players will have left the league.  Excluded more recent years because most players take 2 to 3 years to get to the NHL after being drafted so this would skew the figure).

For the record JT Miller's number is 30pts per year.  It took him 4 years to become an NHL regular.

Still think we gave up too much?

 

I think most who aren't a fan of the 1st have that Ottawa deal for Duchene freshly stuck in their head, I know I kind of do. I mean, yes we have a few nice young piece but we have a poor all around D core, lackluster secondary scoring and a goalie who has had 1 solid season, was that just a fluke or is Marky just a late bloomer? we could make the playoffs next year but if we don't we automatically give up the 1st in 2021.

 

What if Marky has another good year and wants to cash in and Canucks dont bite as they Demko, what is Edler shows his age and tanev is gone and say Myers is a bit of a flop. There are still unknowns going forward. I think the pick should be safe from being a top 15 selection, GM JB is going all in this year and maybe next to ensure we make the playoffs, I am just not sure if he will still be the GM in 2021. Nice guy I am sure, I just haven't like the direction we have been on the past 4-5 years. I am entitled to that opinion, I dont have a crystal ball to say if we did these moves we would be cup contenders by now but as a fan I dont like some of the trades and FA signings he has made and likely will make next week

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1 hour ago, Pete M said:

off topic, I agree Edler..esque.

5 year deal at $5.5M per year would put him at 34 years old...he will maintain his current pay scale and sprinkle in some performance bonuses...his stats and current cap hit/ contract are below, plus he would be coming back to BC. Good chance Canucks get him for this term and amount.

Capture.PNG

Capture1.PNG

Being a UFA, I’m pretty sure he’ll be looking for a deal that will cost us 6-7M easy and probably a 6 year deal.

 

Which I’m okay with.

 

He’ll help our d alot. Ease Tanev and Edler with the big minutes and maybe Tanev doesn’t need to block every shot (or Stecher).

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Yesterday, when I first heard we traded for Miller I was quite happy... Then I found out the return. Initially I was pretty pissed off we gave up a 1st rounder. After having some time to think about it.... Given his age, production and contract, imho he is worth a first. I realize Tampa needed to shed cap but this is by no means a cap dump. The fact that the pick is lottery protected next year is huge... Keep in mind although we are still part way into a rebuild, we need to start progressing forward before EP and QH finish there ELC's. If we still haven't made the playoffs by then then that would be a huge failure. No teams have been successful without having some percentage of their talent still on ELC's. See Toronto, they are going to have a tough time surrounding their core with solid pieces with 3 guys over 11 Mil.

 

RIP Team Tank.... It's time to start thinking playoffs not lottery picks. 

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I don't mind the deal, though I see Miller as more a Baertschi replacement or a top 9 forward. Would be happy if he could do 20G-20A-40P like seasons.

 

I don't like trading the first because it's a big trade chip that is now off the table, and I like using the first for a key part of a team, rather than something that you could possibly get in free agency; i.e. I would have preferred using the first for a top-4 d-man, rather than a winger.

 

The trade might meet our need for a top-6 winger though, so it's good if Miller can play away from Tampa.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

I have to agree with those who say that we should be so lucky to use the conditional 1st to draft someone as good as Miller, so better to get a Miller now for four years and compliment our top young players now when it fits so perfectly with our timeline. He's everything we need and he fills a massive hole in our lineup, and we're playoff bound with him, so I think it was a fair price to pay for someone like him.

 

There's also still so much time left to make more moves and get a 1st, or more, back. Jim will be unloading players for picks soon, book it, and adding to our backend. His plan is coming to fruition, and the reward is going to be glorious for us fans. We're so poised to do some major damage soon.

 

Ive always wanted him on our team regardless of the sticker shock. Playes the right way all the time. I remember when he came here and scored on his brother in a win 4 JT. Thought then that he would be an awesome acquisition. 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/j-t-miller-scores-in-ot-to-give-rangers-win-over-canucks/

Edited by cuporbust

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Hutton Wink said:

By what metric?  As has already been shown, they paid less than for recent comparable rentals, which have less value.  Miller is also in his prime, not an aging veteran.  Moreover, the 1st was not only not for this year, but a year from now or even two years from now.  That GREATLY reduces its value.  Is the value of a 2022 pick the same as next year's?  Not even close, no matter what the team.  If it were for this year's 1st and 3rd it would be a far different story and have had significantly more value.  That valuation would be something much more up to open debate, but even then would not be an absolute declared loss. Canucks got him at FAR less than market value.

I bow down to your subjectivity, in this case. No need to split hairs here, IMO, as the rabbit hole of opinion is never-ending. 

 

If I were to spin this in another direction, perhaps citing this drafting dynasty’s legacy, ... albeit a continually pixelating scene of fantasy and delusion,... strength as being that of superior draft-masters, as if to prop of the value of that pick, would that move your position? Your position hasn’t impacted my own, so I suspect not. Just being honest in assessing the worth of this convos pretext. 

 

Metrics? 

Hmmmm... which metric should be cited here for gaging the the most valued commodity and currency for a rebuild club, especially one bereft of quality and skill in several areas within the prospect pool, in the later stages of a rebuild and of which has consistently lacked a surplus of quality draft picks? ... Hmmm... draft picks??? 

 

How many picks did AR and Beagle cost? 

 

Where you may see the juice being worth the squeeze, as others also did in the Guddy trade for instance, this being another example of the bizarre surrendering of prime assets/currency for a transition piece, I see an unnecessary expenditure of rebuild fuel, again.

 

To each their own, especially on the subject of cost. Ultimately, if I find the trade expensive for a rebuilding club, then that’s my opinion which I don’t need to qualify against your own and vice versa. 

 

Edited by 189lb enforcers?
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Posted (edited)

Good chance it ends up being a mid-round pick in '21.  That's a player that may make an impact in 4-5 years, if at all.  In that time 4-5 years of Brock/Elias/Bo's career will have ticked by.  This was an aggressive (and yes, somewhat risky) move to give them some quality to play with in that time. It doesn't just improve the top end of the forward group but can have the trickle down effect of pushing other guys (Virtanen/Baertschi/Pearson/whoever) down into a more appropriate role they can be successful in . The value of that pick won't be determined by the team you watched for the past 2 seasons , but for the next 2. 

Edited by BlastPast
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7 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Ive always wanted him on our team regardless of the sticker shock. Playes the right way all the time. I remember when he came here and scored on his brother in a win 4 JT. Thought then that he would be an awesome acquisition. 

That was Drew Miller when he was in Detroit.

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20 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

so i think a lot of overstatement is happening about the conditional 1st rounder going to tampa in this trade

 

surely people do not value the smallish chance allotted to every team that misses the playoffs to win a top 3 draft position to make all of those 15/soon to be 16 1st round draft slots ultra valuable?

 

the value is really only the top 3 draft slots (plus/minus a slot or 2 depending how deep/weak the draft is that year)

 

if that is the case, let's get  a bit real about what the nucks traded away

- no matter where the nucks finish, they never move up in the draft, so if this team improves at all, that pick simply will be worse then then 10oa pic the team used in this years draft - that is just a fact about this particular team, it does not apply to other nhl teams

- if fans of this team seriously believe/worry that the nucks will not improve next season and the season after, the team has serious issues with its new core that should be talked about now, since this defective core not developing to its potential is the only way that conditional pick is going to "burn" this team

- if that conditional pick is not in the top 10, then the nucks have acquired a proven player for a much less then 100% chance at a player who might be better then the acquired player (remember jt was picked 15th in his draft year - if the conditional pick ends up being 15oa when it is used, theoretically a player like jt could/would be chosen - just a full decade later then jt),  the downside for the bolts is that player could end up being worse then jt.

 

this trade is not risk free

but it is pretty damn solid in my view

the conditional 1st round pick really does not have the value so many people on here are suggesting, it has possible better value but also possible lesser value

 

 

I think the biggest disappointment is just that ”fans” here feel they don't have anything to look forward to come draft day. It’s exciting and now that could be gone for one year. 

But it’s a tough world out there. Things like that happen. ::D

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8 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Ive always wanted him on our team regardless of the sticker shock. Playes the right way all the time. I remember when he came here and scored on his brother in a win 4 JT. Thought then that he would be an awesome acquisition. 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/j-t-miller-scores-in-ot-to-give-rangers-win-over-canucks/

Ryan wasn't his brother. Ryan's brother was Drew Miller of Det, JT is no relation.

 

But agree, I like the guy

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7 minutes ago, c00kies said:

I don't mind the deal, though I see Miller as more a Baertschi replacement or a top 9 forward. Would be happy if he could do 20G-20A-40P like seasons.

 

I don't like trading the first because it's a big trade chip that is now off the table, and I like using the first for a key part of a team, rather than something that you could possibly get in free agency; i.e. I would have preferred using the first for a top-4 d-man, rather than a winger.

 

The trade might meet our need for a top-6 winger though, so it's good if Miller can play away from Tampa.

no not quite

 

sven is exactly my size

whereas jt is bigger then bo

and we all know bo is a bull

 

jt is also stronger defensively then sven

 

sven, when healthy and playing at his best, might be a top 6 player

in my view, jt is a top 6 player

 

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5 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

I bow down to your subjectivity, in this case. No need to split hairs here, IMO, as the rabbit hole of opinion is never-ending. 

 

If I were to spin this in another direction, perhaps citing this drafting dynasties legacy, albeit a continually pixelating scene of fantasy and delusion, strength as being superior or deft draft-masters, as if to prop of the value of that pick, would that move your position? Your position hasn’t impacted my own, so I suspect not. Just being honest in assessing the worth of this convos pretext. 

 

Metrics? 

Hmmmm... which metric should be cited here for gaging the the most valued commodity and currency for a rebuild club, especially one bereft of quality and skill in several areas within the prospect pool, in the later stages of a rebuild and of which has consistently lacked a surplus of quality draft picks? ... Hmmm... draft picks??? 

 

How many picks did AR and Beagle cost? 

 

Where you may see the juice being worth the squeeze, as others also did in the Guddy trade for instance, this being another example of the bizarre surrendering of prime assets/currency for a transition piece, I see an unnecessary expenditure of rebuild fuel, again.

 

To each their own, especially on the subject of cost. Ultimately, if I find the trade expensive for a rebuilding club, then that’s my opinion which I don’t need to qualify against your own and vice versa. 

 

I don't mean to offend but, are you high? Your last few posts seem to indicate that is probable. ::D

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

I think most who aren't a fan of the 1st have that Ottawa deal for Duchene freshly stuck in their head, 

And this is the root of the problem.  Ott gave up a 1st get Duchene .  They flipped him to CBJ a year later and got the first round pick back (along with spare pieces).  While at OTT he was a point per game player.  How was this bad for OTT?

The player that COL got with that pick has done nothing yet and unless he plays 700+ games and puts up 500+ pts, COL lose that trade.  People are seduced by picks and over value them, especially first round picks.

Edited by danaimo
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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, danaimo said:

I'm curious as to what value people put on the 1st round draft pick that the Canucks sent to Tampa.  What do people think the intrinsic value of this pick to be?  We cannot assess it's value based on the player that Tampa receive with this pick, because that is in the future. But we can look at the value of the pick itself.  What is the average point total per season for a player taken in the first round?

60+ pts  nope

50-60 pts  getting closer, but not much

40-50 pts   keep going

30-40 pts  lower

20-30 pts   surely more than that!

The average point total per season for a player selected in the first round is 18 pts.  This is based on players drafted in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (reasonable sample.  Go back further and the number falls because more players will have left the league.  Excluded more recent years because most players take 2 to 3 years to get to the NHL after being drafted so this would skew the figure).

For the record JT Miller's number is 30pts per year.  It took him 4 years to become an NHL regular.

Still think we gave up too much?

 

It would be more interesting to place a modifier in there due to the propensity for this site’s reverence for this club’s drafting abilities, one that increases the odds of each pick being a success, because you know, it was made by the Graft Guru, himself. 

 

It like a bipolar experience where posts include the drooling over the abilities of the scouting department here but over there, think picks are, meh. 

 

Seems counterintuitive to have a prevailing belief in this team’s drafting prowess while simultaneously holding one that draft picks are overvalued and statistically long-shot assets. 

 

If a 45th OA pick has a 40% chance of being an NHL player, wouldn’t JB’s drafting heroics modifier turn those odds up to 41, etc? It would be an interesting topic for elsewhere, but mainly hedged in hindsight and nobody likes that game.

 

 

Edited by 189lb enforcers?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

Ryan wasn't his brother. Ryan's brother was Drew Miller of Det, JT is no relation.

 

But agree, I like the guy

Hahaha. Oops . I totally thought JT was related . Dont i feel dumb now :lol:

Edited by cuporbust
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I dont think 20th or later 1st R pick for JT Miller is bad value, in a vaccum.

 

The problem with it for us is the risk that we miss the playoffs. Or that we are giving up a 16-18 pick in a very good draft year.

 

But no complaints about Miller as a player, excited to see him.

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