[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Dazzle]

4 hours ago, mpt said:

Which you had to give up a 1st and a 3rd.  Hayes cost a 5th to negotiate and sign him to UFA numbers,   I would rather have Hayes and keep a 1st rounder.  Would I trade Miller for Hayes? No way, but if this type of player was yourvtarget would I have traded for his rights and sign him for a larger contract to keep a 1st round pick, yes I would since the pick can easily be a lottery pick

What proof is there that Hayes would've signed? If you gave up a 5th for nothing, plenty of ppl would have harped on Benning for throwing away picks.

[BlueDragon23]

Now that the dust has settled and I’ve thought about it more, this is actually a solid deal. Of course I don’t prefer trading away a 1st rounder, but it is lottery protected, so if we flop next year, we still get to pick. 

Meanwhile, Miller will be a Top 6 forward playing alongside Bo, or Brock and Petey. Still young with not too bad a cap hit. We starting to transition from a bottom feeder to a playoff team and eventually contenders. 

We cannot keep being lottery contenders. Eventually we need to make that transition from expecting tanking to expecting to make the playoffs. Do you guys want to be like Buffalo or Edmonton where it is okay to lose aka a losing culture? I know I sure as hell don’t. 

[JamesB]

53 minutes ago, danaimo said:

I'm curious as to what value people put on the 1st round draft pick that the Canucks sent to Tampa.  What do people think the intrinsic value of this pick to be?  We cannot assess it's value based on the player that Tampa receive with this pick, because that is in the future. But we can look at the value of the pick itself.  What is the average point total per season for a player taken in the first round?

60+ pts  nope

50-60 pts  getting closer, but not much

40-50 pts   keep going

30-40 pts  lower

20-30 pts   surely more than that!

The average point total per season for a player selected in the first round is 18 pts.  This is based on players drafted in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (reasonable sample.  Go back further and the number falls because more players will have left the league.  Excluded more recent years because most players take 2 to 3 years to get to the NHL after being drafted so this would skew the figure).

For the record JT Miller's number is 30pts per year.  It took him 4 years to become an NHL regular.

Still think we gave up too much?

 

Ok, I'll bite on the question of how to evaluate draft picks.

 

1. I have not re-done the calculations, but for the number to be meaningful, it would have to be just forwards -- with Ds excluded.

2. It would be better to look at PPG instead of points per season because of lot guys play partial seasons, especially in their early years.

3. Three years is a fairly small sample, although much better than only one year or only two years.

3. There is a huge difference between high first round picks and low first round picks. A lot of analysis has been done on this. Here is a good article.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Here is a key diagram. It shows expected PPG (forwards only) based on all players drafted between 1995 and 2007.

 

 

For forwards drafted at #5 overall, the expected or average PPG is about 0.4, at #10 overall the expected value is about 0.3 and at #25, the expected value is about 0.2 PPG. That is a big drop-off. However based on that Miller looks pretty good.

 

4. However, the biggest issue is time and salary. The biggest single  advantage of high draft picks is that the team gets a good player at a very low cap hit. It is very hard to having a successful team if everyone is getting UFA level market value. To win, a team has to have high performance per dollar spent.  Last year EP and Boeser were great value and guys who sign as RFAs are usually good value. On a similar point, a team that drafts a player gets to control that player for a long time -- up to age 27.

 

Miller has 4 years left on his contract, and he will be 30 at the end of it anyway--about the age when forwards typically (although not always) start noticeable age-related decline. And his contract is not cheap at 5.25 million per year -- "reasonable" but not cheap.

 

5. There is also the issue of variance. With draft pick picks you might hit a home run or you might strike out -- you might get EP or you might get Hunter Shinkaruk. But you are much better off with one EP and one Hunter Shinkaruk than with two guys who are at the average between them (say two Jake Virtanens) because you don't have to Hunter Shinkaruk. Miller is a pretty good player and is a known quantity. But that means that you give the possibility of hitting a home run.

 

Bottom line: This trade obviously increases the probably of making the playoffs in the next two years, but it probably reduces the probability of having a Cup contender 4 or 5 years down the road.

Edited June 23, 2019 by JamesB

[danaimo]

11 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

ah no

while i do not agree with the anxiety being expressed on these boards

that jb traded away a lottery pick

this really is not what you are suggesting either

 

avs got more assets then just that 1 first rounder for duchene

the 1st rounder the avs got was a very high value first rounder

the ones the sens got from cbj were considerably less, and combined would not have netted the pick the avs got

 

the other component to the avs side of the trade is

duchene was a bit of a cancer on that team, and the avs turned things around once he was shipped out

sorta an addition by subtraction thing (even if they had received no other assets in return)

 

the other component to the sens side is

that the team fell apart after that trade (they expected the trade to make them immediately better)

now that is not all on duchene, but turris being shipped out really hurt that team culture

and then sens management added many other tires to the fire there

ah yeah, and something about uber also created some controversy

I can't argue with that, you make some valid points.  My contention is that picks are made based on projection of what a team hopes will be, whereas veteran players can be assessed based upon actual performance at the NHL level.   We don't know if Byram goes on to be the next Hedman or the next Gudbranson.

[Dazzle]

1 minute ago, Losing With Pride said:

A Tampa Fan would be over the moon. 

They shed salary to re-sign their RFAs and are guaranteed another first round pick in the next two years. 

 

That or they have another piece of currency they can use to acquire a different piece to take a run at a Stanley cup. 

They (Tampa) actually broke even on their their initial trade to obtain Miller.

 

JT Miller's a good trade guys.

[Losing With Pride]

Watch this 2021 draft pick cost us a shot at Luke Hughes. 

[Kanukfanatic]

5 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Ok, I'll bite on the question of how to evaluate draft picks.

 

1. I have not re-done the calculations, but for the number to be meaningful, it would have to be just forwards -- with Ds excluded.

2. It would be better to look at PPG instead of points per season because of lot guys play partial seasons, especially in their early years.

3. Three years is a fairly small sample, although much better than only one year or only two years.

3. There is a huge difference between high first round picks and low first round picks. A lot of analysis has been done on this. Here is a good article.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Here is a key diagram. It shows expected PPG (forwards only) based on all players drafted between 1995 and 2007.

 

 

For forwards drafted at #5 overall, the expected or average PPG is about 0.4, at #10 overall the expected value is about 0.3 and at #25, the expected value is about 0.2 PPG. That is a big drop-off. However based on that Miller looks pretty good.

 

4. However, the biggest issue is time and salary. The biggest single  advantage of high draft picks is that the team gets a good player at a very low cap hit. It is very hard to having a successful team if everyone is getting UFA level market value. To win, a team has to have high performance per dollar spent.  Last year EP and Boeser were great value and guys who sign as RFAs are usually good value. On a similar point, a team that drafts a player gets to control that player for a long time -- up to age 27.

 

Miller has 4 years left on his contract, and he will be 30 at the end of it anyway--about the age when forwards typically (although not always) start noticeable age-related decline. And his contract is not cheap at 5.25 million per year -- "reasonable" but not cheap.

 

5. There is also the issue of variance. With draft pick picks you might hit a home run or you might strike out -- you might get EP or you might get Hunter Shinkaruk. But you are much better off with one EP and one Hunter Shinkaruk than with two guys who are at the average between them (say two Jake Virtanens). Miller is a pretty good player and is a known quantity. But that means that you give the possibility of hitting a home run.

 

Bottom line: This trade obviously increases the probably of making the playoffs in the next two years, but it probably reduces the probability of having a Cup contender 4 or 5 years down the road.

Nice analysis.

 

Weak conclusion. In 4 or 5 years Miller's contract is up so that affects the Canucks being a Cup Contender how? Could they not trade him in 2-3 years if needed?

[189lb enforcers?]

6 minutes ago, Losing With Pride said:

A Tampa Fan would be over the moon. 

They shed salary to re-sign their RFAs and are guaranteed another first round pick in the next two years. 

 

That or they have another piece of currency they can use to acquire a different piece to take a run at a Stanley cup. 

Tampa has had great success in the aspect of drafting. 

These picks will most likely produce further examples of what has made them such a deep, talented team, with a consistently and relatively full pipeline, to boot. 

 

That franchise deserves what ever successes they get. They didn’t take any shortcuts. 

[wildwood12]

Jim Benning doesn’t give a rats ass what anyone thinks about the trade. He was smiling when it was announced, and he still is smiling.

[Disgruntler]

I dunno. These top two look ok to me?

 

Miller / Petey / Boes

Pearson / Bo / Virt

 

Second line is thiiiick.

[Gurn]

15 minutes ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

I can't believe they would trade the best trade chip this team has for a forward. 

They did not trade their best chip, or any of these other chips either.

These chips are still here and playing.

EP

BH

BB

QH

TD

[Mustapha]

9 minutes ago, BlueDragon23 said:

Now that the dust has settled and I’ve thought about it more, this is actually a solid deal. Of course I don’t prefer trading away a 1st rounder, but it is lottery protected, so if we flop next year, we still get to pick. 

Meanwhile, Miller will be a Top 6 forward playing alongside Bo, or Brock and Petey. Still young with not too bad a cap hit. We starting to transition from a bottom feeder to a playoff team and eventually contenders. 

We cannot keep being lottery contenders. Eventually we need to make that transition from expecting tanking to expecting to make the playoffs. Do you guys want to be like Buffalo or Edmonton where it is okay to lose aka a losing culture? I know I sure as hell don’t. 

Maybe you missed the last 50 years but Vancouver has been losing for decades. This team has never been good enough to mock the Oilers, despite their 'decade of failure' (where they have won more playoff series than the Leafs btw).

 

The reality is that JB has to trade futures to get decent forwards on the team. They haven't been able to develop complimentary players, they are relying on raw talent like Boeser and Petey. And yeah, they overpaid big time considering the cap issues Tampa is in. But most people know what type of player JT Miller is, for all we know the 2020 1st rd pick will be Juolevi 2.0 John Weisbrod special.

[CaptainLinden16]

Just now, 189lb enforcers? said:

Tampa has had great success in the aspect of drafting. 

These picks will most likely produce further examples of what has made them such a deep, talented team, with a consistently and relatively full pipeline, to boot. 

 

That franchise deserves what ever successes they get. They didn’t take any shortcuts. 

You mean Stamkos and Hedman right?  Let me know when the Canucks win the lotto and draft 1st or 2nd overall.  I am fairly certain this team with with Matthews and Eichel would be a pretty sweet squad.  People give too much credit to things that happen primarily by chance.  No one would pass on Hedman or Stamkos at their draft positions.  To get their draft positions took no skill.  Much easier to build a team when you get gifted a number one center (richard winning) and a Norris winning number 1 defender.  

 

They definitely didnt take any shortcuts into getting incredibly lucky. 

[CaptainLinden16]

Just now, gurn said:

They did not trade their best chip, or any of these other chips either.

These chips are still here and playing.

EP

BH

BB

QH

TD

so you are suggesting that the team trade Petterson? or Horvat or Quin Hughes or Brock Boeser?  Are you for real?

[ilduce39]

7 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Nice analysis.

 

Weak conclusion. In 4 or 5 years Miller's contract is up so that affects the Canucks being a Cup Contender how? Could they not trade him in 2-3 years if needed?

True.  A lot of people seem to think draft picks are the only thing of value and once used for a player; especially a veteran player, we’ve lost all value.  

 

I can kind of see why... our overall crappy past 5 years and injury woes have dampened the value of a lot of our players.. but it IS possible for players to maintain or even raise their value as they play for us.  It just hasn’t happened much lately due to circumstance and misfortune.  

[189lb enforcers?]

4 minutes ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

You mean Stamkos and Hedman right?  Let me know when the Canucks win the lotto and draft 1st or 2nd overall.  I am fairly certain this team with with Matthews and Eichel would be a pretty sweet squad.  People give too much credit to things that happen primarily by chance.  No one would pass on Hedman or Stamkos at their draft positions.  To get their draft positions took no skill.  Much easier to build a team when you get gifted a number one center (richard winning) and a Norris winning number 1 defender.  

 

They definitely didnt take any shortcuts into getting incredibly lucky. 

I’m not going to go into detail here, but I think you owe it to yourself here to look up Tampa’s draft history. They are perhaps the very best at hitting gold, late, mid and whenever they make a pick.

 

This isn’t a subjective opinion, it’s a fact. Do your homework. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by 189lb enforcers?

[danaimo]

6 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Ok, I'll bite on the question of how to evaluate draft picks.

 

1. I have not re-done the calculations, but for the number to be meaningful, it would have to be just forwards -- with Ds excluded.

2. It would be better to look at PPG instead of points per season because of lot guys play partial seasons, especially in their early years.

3. Three years is a fairly small sample, although much better than only one year or only two years.

3. There is a huge difference between high first round picks and low first round picks. A lot of analysis has been done on this. Here is a good article.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Here is a key diagram. It shows expected PPG (forwards only) based on all players drafted between 1995 and 2007.

 

 

For forwards drafted at #5 overall, the expected or average PPG is about 0.4, at #10 overall the expected value is about 0.3 and at #25, the expected value is about 0.2 PPG. That is a big drop-off. However based on that Miller looks pretty good.

 

4. However, the biggest issue is time and salary. The biggest single of advantage of high draft picks is that the team gets a good player at a very low cap hit. It is very hard to having a successful team if everyone is getting UFA level market value. To win, a team has to have high performance per dollar spent.  Last year EP and Boeser were great value and guys who sign as RFAs are usually good value. On a similar point, a team that drafts a player gets to control that player for a long time -- up to age 27.

 

Miller has 4 years left on his contract, and he will be 30 at the end of it anyway--about the age when forwards typically (although not always) start noticeable age-related decline. And his contract is not cheap at 5.25 million per year -- "reasonable" but not cheap.

 

5. There is also the issue of variance. With draft pick picks you might hit a home run or you might strike out -- you might get EP or you might get Hunter Shinkaruk. But you are much better off with one EP and one Hunter Shinkaruk than with two guys who are at the average between them (say two Jake Virtanens). Miller is a pretty good player and is a known quantity. But that means that you give the possibility of hitting a home run.

 

Bottom line: This trade obviously increases the probably of making the playoffs in the next two years, but it probably reduces the probability of having a Cup contender 4 or 5 years down the road.

Thanks for the input.  I accept that my analysis has flaws but any analysis of this type will.  It would be wrong to exclude Dmen all together because there are some that offer real offence and put up big numbers.  Perhaps a better analysis would be to weigh their pts more.  I did not use PPG because that puts weight on players that enter the NHL later in their career and value must be given to youngsters who come straight in at 18 or 19.  Also, players that spend time in the treatment room do not help their team win games but they may have a better PPG.  The article drives home the put that every draft has a drop off in talent from top picks to later picks and this is the fact that I'm trying make, although not as well as you.  

[Gurn]

1 minute ago, CaptainLinden16 said:

so you are suggesting that the team trade Petterson? or Horvat or Quin Hughes or Brock Boeser?  Are you for real?

I am saying all players without no trade or no movement clauses are chips. Every single player without such a clause can and should be traded if the return is right.

Example

Bo Horvat to Ottawa for 6 first round picks.

[grandmaster]

24 minutes ago, Losing With Pride said:

A Tampa Fan would be over the moon. 

They shed salary to re-sign their RFAs and are guaranteed another first round pick in the next two years. 

 

That or they have another piece of currency they can use to acquire a different piece to take a run at a Stanley cup. 

You’re being ridiculous. They lost a piece and you think that puts them in a position to be a better contender? You can not replace a versatile 50 point young producer at just a 5M cap like they had. Good luck shopping for that...

[CaptainLinden16]

Just now, 189lb enforcers? said:

I’m not going to go into detail here, but I think you owe it to yourself here to look up Tampa’s draft history. They are perhaps the very best at hitting gold, late, mid and whenever they make a pick.

 

This isn’t a subjective opinion, it’s a fact. Do your homework. 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TBL/draft.html#

 

You can do your homework.  He is a link to their drafting.  Very underwhelming.  The only substantial player they have drafted in the last 40 picks is Brayden Point.

 

If the Canucks drafted 1st and 2nd overall in the last 10 years this roster would look dramatically different.  Petterson, Boeser, Horvat, Hughes were all obtained in the last 40 picks.  Not counting Demko, Joulevi and Gaudette.  

 

I think the Canucks win hands down.

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TBL/draft.html#