aGENT Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, Sean Monahan said: If you look st expected values for first round draft slots, we’d be doing very well to get a player as good as Miller from 10th onwards. I'd argue even 5th onwards. He's basically a second Horvat, what do you think all these same people would want in trade for our captain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal.view Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 miller is what this team needs actually, stone would have been an ideal fit but miller is stone-lite very credible pick up and we will not regret this addition the cost was fine.. he is locked in on a reasonable contract for what he brings i have no problems with this acquisition and have said so from the outset kudos to jb for getting jt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Wilbur said: Pretty much. If the Canucks give a pick up in the 20s, this trade is worth it. If the Canucks give up a lottery pick, not worth it. Simple as that. So you would trade Miller for Pool Party or Nolan Patrick? Not all lottery picks are the same and not all make it to the big leagues or progress to being more than a complimentary player. Miller is a top 6 winger at the very least who can play all 3 forward positions. These players are hard to find. Especially guys that can play both centre and wing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whale Tail Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Will Virtanen be as good as Miller in 3 years? Will the pick have the same luck as Juolevi? It could be a Pettersson or a Horvat. Could be a Gaunce or Shinkaruk. Can Miller keep this play up? lots of Variables to make this a gamble. So far based on the start, it is looking good and I’m excited to see how it unfolds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Stoked we have this guy for 4 years at a bargain of a contract too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sean Monahan said: If you look st expected values for first round draft slots, we’d be doing very well to get a player as good as Miller from 10th onwards. Yeah, if the lottery pick is in that 10-16 area it makes things more gray than black and white. I realize you can't necessarily wait to draft your entire core and, once you're confident in enough of the core it's more efficient to go out and get what you need to finish it off via trade. Miller is one of those pieces but if the Canucks don't make the playoffs in the next two years that'll be two years too early to make this trade (in hindsight). For the record, I think the timing is fine and the trade will work out for the Canucks. But if the Canucks miss the playoffs the next two years and have to cough up a lottery pick, in hindsight they should've waited because the rebuild isn't going as well as originally thought. Edited October 11, 2019 by Wilbur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said: So you would trade Miller for Pool Party or Nolan Patrick? Not all lottery picks are the same and not all make it to the big leagues or progress to being more than a complimentary player. Miller is a top 6 winger at the very least who can play all 3 forward positions. These players are hard to find. Especially guys that can play both centre and wing. Of course not. Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd for 28 year old Chris Kreider? Miller at 26 is perfectly fine for Vancouver if they start to complete in the next two years. But if they sputter for two more years Miller will be two years older and two years closer to UFA status. Miller is a valuable piece, I agree. And if this pushes the Canucks into the playoffs in the next year it'll be draft picks well spent (and the biased Canuck fan in me believes this trade will be worth it). However, if the Canucks don't make the post season the next two years and have to give up a lottery pick, well, those have the potential to be way more valuable than a 28 year old player and Benning should've waited (in hindsight) to make a trade like this. Time will tell, I think it'll work out for the Canucks (meaning they make the playoffs this year or next) but it's not a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, Wilbur said: Of course not. Would you trade a 1st and a 3rd for 28 year old Chris Kreider? Miller at 26 is perfectly fine for Vancouver if they start to complete in the next two years. But if they sputter for two more years Miller will be two years older and two years closer to UFA status. Miller is a valuable piece, I agree. And if this pushes the Canucks into the playoffs in the next year it'll be draft picks well spent (and the biased Canuck fan in me believes this trade will be worth it). However, if the Canucks don't make the post season the next two years and have to give up a lottery pick, well, those have the potential to be way more valuable than a 28 year old player and Benning should've waited (in hindsight) to make a trade like this. Time will tell, I think it'll work out for the Canucks (meaning they make the playoffs this year or next) but it's not a slam dunk. You point out the obvious potential negative of the Miller trade, but our team needs to finish rebuilding and move to compete at some point. I agree with JB that now is the time to do so. The Leafs gave up their first just to dump Marleau. They are in s ein now window. They have a terrible future though because they are trying to win now. We are trying to win now. Using picks to win now, when the young core is ready to win now, makes good sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Alflives said: You point out the obvious potential negative of the Miller trade, but our team needs to finish rebuilding and move to compete at some point. I agree with JB that now is the time to do so. The Leafs gave up their first just to dump Marleau. They are in s ein now window. They have a terrible future though because they are trying to win now. We are trying to win now. Using picks to win now, when the young core is ready to win now, makes good sense. When I had first made the comment I had said as well that if the Canucks make the playoffs, then yes, this trade does make good sense. I agree that it will be worth it too. But there is some element of gambling, which sometimes you have to do as you can wait forever to have all your ducks in a row to make a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Wilbur said: When I had first made the comment I had said as well that if the Canucks make the playoffs, then yes, this trade does make good sense. I agree that it will be worth it too. But there is some element of gambling, which sometimes you have to do as you can wait forever to have all your ducks in a row to make a run. Drafting is also gambling. Sometimes you get a Pettersson and sometimes you get a Pool Party. It's the same with trades. I don't think there has ever been a GM in the league who has won a Cup who has not gambled to some degree... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: Drafting is also gambling. Sometimes you get a Pettersson and sometimes you get a Pool Party. It's the same with trades. I don't think there has ever been a GM in the league who has won a Cup who has not gambled to some degree... Agree completely. If the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two years the Miller gamble will pay off (very well), but if they don't then it wouldn't have. This is a worthy gamble as the core looks good. But if the gamble doesn't pay off then maybe the core isn't as good as we thought and the organization should look very closely at what is going wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Monahan Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, Wilbur said: When I had first made the comment I had said as well that if the Canucks make the playoffs, then yes, this trade does make good sense. I agree that it will be worth it too. But there is some element of gambling, which sometimes you have to do as you can wait forever to have all your ducks in a row to make a run. I don’t think it’s as simple as making or not making playoffs. If they miss playoffs AND win a top 3 pick in the lottery then yeah it might be a bad trade, but if that pick is anywhere from 10 or below (maybe up to 8 or below) then it’s a very good or at least fair trade. And I think it’s almost certainly going to be 10 or lower. Edited October 11, 2019 by Sean Monahan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Wilbur said: Agree completely. If the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two years the Miller gamble will pay off (very well), but if they don't then it wouldn't have. This is a worthy gamble as the core looks good. But if the gamble doesn't pay off then maybe the core isn't as good as we thought and the organization should look very closely at what is going wrong. I'd argue if they don't make the playoffs, it still wouldn't make this trade bad, mostly because there are so many factors that can go into making the playoffs: some to do with the team and others we won't be able to control whatsoever. I know it's easy for people to want to simplify each trade into "it was good" or it was not good" in the end, but it does tend to ignore a lot in the process. I think, if we don't make the playoffs, it's more on whatever transactions we've made from here on out, or possibly injuries, possibly the resurgence of other teams in the division: there are so many moving parts to it that it would be like a car breaking down and blaming the starter for not going.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
22and33 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 The way I see it is the Canucks traded away a mid to late 1st round draft pick for a mid 1st round draft pick that has developed into exactly that. I also think Miller has the potential to hit another level on this team since he'll be leaned in much more here. Most likely scenario Canucks win this trade since the odds say the draft pick won't develop into what Miller is today. Worst case scenario the draft pick turns into the next Pastrnak. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timberz21 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, The Lock said: I'd argue if they don't make the playoffs, it still wouldn't make this trade bad, mostly because there are so many factors that can go into making the playoffs: some to do with the team and others we won't be able to control whatsoever. I know it's easy for people to want to simplify each trade into "it was good" or it was not good" in the end, but it does tend to ignore a lot in the process. I think, if we don't make the playoffs, it's more on whatever transactions we've made from here on out, or possibly injuries, possibly the resurgence of other teams in the division: there are so many moving parts to it that it would be like a car breaking down and blaming the starter for not going.... Exactly....if Canucks don't make the playoffs but Miller end up with 25G and 60+ pts, it'll still be a good trade. Edited October 11, 2019 by timberz21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 One 4 point game, like Neal’s and bam! Its settled... haha What a site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Monahan Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Just now, 189lb enforcers? said: One 4 point game, like Neal’s and bam! Its settled... haha What a site. I wouldn’t say it’s just the four point game. I think right from the preseason through Wednesday night Miller has been very good. Probably our best forward so far and clearly brings elements of speed, size, physicality, and skill that the team needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Sean Monahan said: I wouldn’t say it’s just the four point game. I think right from the preseason through Wednesday night Miller has been very good. Probably our best forward so far and clearly brings elements of speed, size, physicality, and skill that the team needed. Sure, that’s why they traded for him, agreed. But that’s not my point, nor the early birds’ chiming in here over the past several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazzle Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said: Sure, that’s why they traded for him, agreed. But that’s not my point, nor the early birds’ chiming in here over the past several hours. For someone that's supposedly ahead of the herd, you're not that far ahead... What you have described in your last post is not new for CDC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 On 6/22/2019 at 12:14 PM, Monty said: $5.25M for a 50 point player? Bargain. On 6/22/2019 at 12:43 PM, Monty said: Do people here not realize that if a team were to draft a player in the first round, if they were to turn out being a 50 point player, that’s an absolute win? Jeez. JT Miller is worth a conditional first. He’s in his prime right now, people. If it turns out that I'm right on the value of this trade, that would be the first time since joining in 2005. Time to break out the champagne! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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