[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, 22and33 said:

The way I see it is the Canucks traded away a mid to late 1st round draft pick for a mid 1st round draft pick that has developed into exactly that. I also think Miller has the potential to hit another level on this team since he'll be leaned in much more here. 

 

Most likely scenario Canucks win this trade since the odds say the draft pick won't develop into what Miller is today.

Worst case scenario the draft pick turns into the next Pastrnak.

You can’t really claim it will be a mid-round pick.  We don’t know the true value of this pick and at this point it’s all just assumptions.  The Canucks took a gamble that we will get fair value out of this trade.  We are the team that took on the risk.  That’s not to say it was a good or bad trade, just a gamble.  You can debate whether it was the right or wrong gamble but it’s still a big gamble nevertheless.    

 

As you say, JT Millers value today is around a mid-round pick in the 15-20 range, therefor the absolutely worst case scenario for Tampa bay is Canucks win the cup and Tampa is only awarded the 31sts overall.   The value between a 15th overall and 31st overall isn’t huge, it’s about 5-7% in NHL draft odds that the player turns into a top 6 Forward.  So really, there was very little risk for the bolts on this trade, it also brought in an added benefit of clearing up cap space.  So regardless what happens in the future this is a win/win situation the bolts put themselves into. 

 

The same can’t be said for the Canucks.  Canucks absolutely worst case scenario it truly a doom and gloom situation, in the same light of Ott giving up Byram this last draft.  If Canucks are to miss playoffs this year and our next years pick becomes a top 5 pick, then the value of the pick we gave up for the player we received is no longer remotely close. This trade on Canucks end could be a win or a loss.  And really from JB’s perspective, if Canucks don’t make playoffs two years in a row, he’s likely gone regardless so it’s not like the gamble affects his future.

 

So really, it comes down to how certain Canucks are that we will not be giving up a top 5 pick next year? Consider the draft lottery, consider how much parity there is in this league, consider Canucks injury history.  Whether we want to admit it or not, it’s a risk, in the end my opinion is that it will likely result in a balance trade…but I can definitely see why there is a area of concern. 

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Agree completely.  If the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two years the Miller gamble will pay off (very well), but if they don't then it wouldn't have.  This is a worthy gamble as the core looks good.  But if the gamble doesn't pay off then maybe the core isn't as good as we thought and the organization should look very closely at what is going wrong.

No that is not true.  How can you say as a matter of fact that if the Canucks don't make the playoffs then it is a bad trade?  That makes no sense.  One trade does not equate to making or not making the playoffs.  It is not a singular item.  There are lots of other factors involved in making the playoffs other then trading for JT Miller.  Also, what if Tampa uses that draft pick on someone who never makes it to the NHL, or becomes a 3rd line player?  Is the trade still bad?

 

At the end of the day it was a good trade no matter what happens because we got a player we really needed, someone who can play wing on the top 2 lines and also someone who can play centre if need be.  JT Miller is the type of player we did not have on the roster or in our system and he will compliment the players we already had.  There is no need to follow the trade along for the next 10 years to see if we won or lost.  Trades and free agents and draft picks must be looked at in totality not in singular fashion. 

[189lb enforcers?]

20 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

For someone that's supposedly ahead of the herd, you're not that far ahead...

 

What you have described in your last post is not new for CDC.

[Dazzle]

Just now, 189lb enforcers? said:

Too bad the minus button isn't around. Stupid.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, timberz21 said:

Exactly....if Canucks don't make the playoffs but Miller end up with 25G and 60+ pts, it'll still be a good trade.

Exactly.  This whole if the Canucks don't make the playoffs then it was a bad trade idea is really off base and short sighted to say the least.  JT Miller will not be the sole reason we make or don't make the playoffs.  If he's a 25 goal 60 point guy then it was a good trade and worth the gamble.  If he's playing on the 4th line in January then the trade will look really bad.  This trade has nothing to do with making or not making the playoffs because JT Miller alone does not control that.  

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

One 4 point game, like Neal’s and bam! 

Its settled... haha

What a site. 

Well.... technically he, prior to this season, had 435 regular season and 61 playoff NHL games played under his belt (and .055 and 0.43PPG respectively including early years where he was just entering the league), solid skating, solid 2 way play, good size/grit and can play all three F positions... with which to judge him. All before hitting the ice in a Canucks sweater and while also a bit buried on a deep Tampa team last year and part of the year before.

 

Hence why some of us were pretty excited when the trade happened. The last few games, just confirm what some of us already knew.

[Darius]

Bottom line = so far so good.

 

I want to contain my enthusiasm and not get into how much I think this guy exhibits many of the traits that Bo brings to the ice.   I think we got ourselves a pretty good player .

[aGENT]

Just now, Darius said:

Bottom line = so far so good.

 

I want to contain my enthusiasm and not get into how much I think this guy exhibits many of the traits that Bo brings to the ice.   I think we got ourselves a pretty good player .

 

14 hours ago, aGENT said:

I'd argue even 5th onwards. He's basically a second Horvat, what do you think all these same people would want in trade for our captain?

 

[Gaudette Celly]

2 hours ago, Sean Monahan said:

I don’t think it’s as simple as making or not making playoffs. If they miss playoffs AND win a top 3 pick in the lottery then yeah it might be a bad trade, but if that pick is anywhere from 10 or below (maybe up to 8 or below) then it’s a very good or at least fair trade. And I think it’s almost certainly going to be 10 or lower. 

Also have to consider the value in-time.  A pick in 2020 is worth more than a pick in 2021 because you get the asset earlier and likely the benefit of the asset earlier as well.  We get Miller NOW and he contributes to the team now, same as if we compare the Baertschi for Andersson trade -- we got how many years of Sven whereas the Flames not only had nothing while Rasmus developed but actually lost an NHL-level asset for those seasons.  For now, we likely get the value of Miller for at least 2 and maybe 4-5 years before Tampa gets what they end up with contributing, which is of unknown value, plus they lose the value of Miller on their roster over those years.  The Canucks have significant built-in guaranteed  value,provided  of course he stays healthy and performs.

[Darius]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I'd argue even 5th onwards. He's basically a second Horvat, what do you think all these same people would want in trade for our captain?

 

 

Was thinking the same thing after watching him a few games.  Then I started thinking of the converse, if Bo was on Tampa they would have slotted him on their third line and probably put up Miller type numbers in a lesser role.   This is all hypothetical of course.   

 

Bottom line in my mind is that if this continues and we added a second Horvat type player to the roster the team has done really well.

[JayDangles]

1 hour ago, Gaudette Celly said:

Also have to consider the value in-time.  A pick in 2020 is worth more than a pick in 2021 because you get the asset earlier and likely the benefit of the asset earlier as well.  We get Miller NOW and he contributes to the team now, same as if we compare the Baertschi for Andersson trade -- we got how many years of Sven whereas the Flames not only had nothing while Rasmus developed but actually lost an NHL-level asset for those seasons.  For now, we likely get the value of Miller for at least 2 and maybe 4-5 years before Tampa gets what they end up with contributing, which is of unknown value, plus they lose the value of Miller on their roster over those years.  The Canucks have significant built-in guaranteed  value,provided  of course he stays healthy and performs.

Great way of breaking down the other tangibles that aren't always looked at or considered by most in a trade. 

[Tower102]

2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You can’t really claim it will be a mid-round pick.  We don’t know the true value of this pick and at this point it’s all just assumptions.  The Canucks took a gamble that we will get fair value out of this trade.  We are the team that took on the risk.  That’s not to say it was a good or bad trade, just a gamble.  You can debate whether it was the right or wrong gamble but it’s still a big gamble nevertheless.    

 

As you say, JT Millers value today is around a mid-round pick in the 15-20 range, therefor the absolutely worst case scenario for Tampa bay is Canucks win the cup and Tampa is only awarded the 31sts overall.   The value between a 15th overall and 31st overall isn’t huge, it’s about 5-7% in NHL draft odds that the player turns into a top 6 Forward.  So really, there was very little risk for the bolts on this trade, it also brought in an added benefit of clearing up cap space.  So regardless what happens in the future this is a win/win situation the bolts put themselves into. 

 

The same can’t be said for the Canucks.  Canucks absolutely worst case scenario it truly a doom and gloom situation, in the same light of Ott giving up Byram this last draft.  If Canucks are to miss playoffs this year and our next years pick becomes a top 5 pick, then the value of the pick we gave up for the player we received is no longer remotely close. This trade on Canucks end could be a win or a loss.  And really from JB’s perspective, if Canucks don’t make playoffs two years in a row, he’s likely gone regardless so it’s not like the gamble affects his future.

 

So really, it comes down to how certain Canucks are that we will not be giving up a top 5 pick next year? Consider the draft lottery, consider how much parity there is in this league, consider Canucks injury history.  Whether we want to admit it or not, it’s a risk, in the end my opinion is that it will likely result in a balance trade…but I can definitely see why there is a area of concern. 

You might be accurate that the Canucks have taken on the higher risk for trade value for where the pick ends up. But when discussing risk of the trade, you can't ignore the risk factor of trades that are picks vs established players. In that regard, TB is taking on the risk and the Canucks are not. We know what we got in the trade, TB has no idea, even if the pick is say a 5th overall. Tb could "win" the gamble of where the draft pick ends up, but still lose the gamble of what that pick becomes. 

[oldnews]

I'd quote myself, but I find that cheesy.

Like when athletes refer to themselves in the third person.

[GhostsOf1994]

4 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I'd quote myself, but I find that cheesy.

Like when athletes refer to themselves in the third person.

 

Just wait till a poster explodes over miller in a negative way, that's when you pull out the golden quotes

[oldnews]

4 minutes ago, GhostsOf1994 said:

 

Just wait till a poster explodes over miller in a negative way, that's when you pull out the golden quotes

there are always too many - to bother.  every move Benning makes is followed by a thread full of default thoughtless hysteria.

Edited October 11, 2019 by oldnews

[Philthy]

I dream this team makes the playoffs with this core, just seeing these types of players in the playoffs shows their value. I truly believe even if we sneak in with the a wildcard spot with this core its built to make a push. Hard to forget Millers presence when he has played in the post season, combine that with Ferlands tenacity in the post season with Roussel just sounds like a difficult time  for the opponent. I'm thinking to far ahead but its a pipe dream. We wont really see this core shine till it comes to playoff time.

Edited October 11, 2019 by Boone Jenner

[JeremyCuddles]

Should have given Miller the C. Losing that first rounder for anything short of a captain is egregious. 

[Alflives]

20 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I'd quote myself, but I find that cheesy.

Like when athletes refer to themselves in the third person.

Alf agrees.  

[GhostsOf1994]

34 minutes ago, oldnews said:

there are always too many - to bother.  every move Benning makes is followed by a thread full of default thoughtless hysteria.

In the words of the great Rick James that was Cold Blooded

[Canuck Surfer]

The trade was a big risk.

 

Remembering we had not signed Ferland nor Myers.  We were not a slam dunk to make play off's. Still are not.

 

I did not like the trade when it happened.  I warmed up when JB made complimentary mobes, cough, Myers and Ferland. And I do appreciate he is trying to improve the team. 

 

I never questioned the actual value of the trade. Miller is worth the 1st round draft pick in the market. Never complained JB got bent over.

 

I just would have played the longer game of developing by draft.  

 

Now that its done? I admit I'm enjoying the better team. I'm also happy we moved Miller up to the first line. He was always a better talent than Ferland. Petey needs, and deserves puck skill. And as a fan, I'm going to support the team.