[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Angry Goose]

1 hour ago, Me_ said:

Link?

 

[TheRussianRocket1994]

5 minutes ago, Rodishred said:

Thank you.... You are a fan that I respect because you're level headed.  Was really dissapointed with the reaction today.  Maybe I should know better as a high % of CDC fan base seem to react in a negative way about almost any changes initially and then a % of those fans calm down and take a slightly less harsh stance given time. 

 

Has Benning and staff not built any goodwill in this fan base yet?  What did you say?.... Not until they make some noise in the playoffs?  Well, isn't that what the management is attempting to do right now?!  Can we just sit back and see how they perform on ice before we throw Benning and staff under the bus?  Probably asking to much hey?

 

Really to bad because the team in my view got a lot better over the last week with Edler signing, the Hog & Pod drafting and JT Miller trade.  All we need is a high end FA defencemen and get to watch a much improved exciting team.  A team that I now believe will make the playoffs next year as a result of these changes.  Is that so bad?  

 

Thank you! I appreciate it...right back at cha! 

 

You as well have great points. I agree with the initial overreaction part. You would think people would have learned their lesson in this regard...eg. The Pettersson draft. Crazy overrreaction, then the realization that they were way off base. But, this happens over and over again. The definition of insanity in my opinion. Lol!

 

Thanks again for the positive feedback!  

[Grape]

I think JT for a conditional 1st would've been fair. I think people focus and put a bit too much value on the 3rd and Mazanek.

 

Mazenek is a tossaway. The 3rd can take some convincing for people but honestly the hit rate isn't great anyway with 3rd round picks.

 

0.8% of third rounders from 2007-2014 have made an all star team. I pick this time frame because these are the player probably currently in their prime. That's 2 out of 240 players. Brayden Point and Vinny Trocheck

[The Lock]

1 minute ago, Grape said:

I think JT for a conditional 1st would've been fair. I think people focus and put a bit too much value on the 3rd and Mazanek.

 

Mazenek is a tossaway. The 3rd can take some convincing for people but honestly the hit rate isn't great anyway with 3rd round picks.

 

0.8% of third rounders from 2007-2014 have made an all star team. I pick this time frame because these are the player probably currently in their prime. That's 2 out of 240 players. Brayden Point and Vinny Trocheck

Pretty much this. I think Mazanec's just going the otherway because another body needed to go the other way. We probably could have chosen anyone to go the other way, so it was our most expendable body.

[86Viking]

6 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Ok.  I just pulled in to Seattle.  Let's dissect this deal 

 

1.  He's slightly smaller but comparable to a Kevin Hayes.  Hayes was traded to Winnipeg for a 1st, 4th and solid prospect.  For 3 months.  Hayes is a winger Miller a C/W hybrid.  Miller is younger and more productive.  Hayes just signed for $7.14 million per year, Miller under contract for 4 years at a measly $5.25 million

 

2.  Just like that Sutter is expendable.  With retention.

 

3.  A centre of that level will get bank in free agency, see Bozak.

 

4.  He lifts the burden off of Horvat and Pettersson.

 

5.  The pick. It slides to 2021 if we miss the playoffs next year.  I've been saying next year is our bubble year for 2 years now.  We get another pick next year, no pick the following.

 

But by next season we will know what we have in.  DiPietro, Demko, Woo, Lind, Gadjovich, Gaudette, Madden, Brisebois and more.  

 

Honestly, while people may hate this deal.  In 2 years when this pick is going to Tampa, we're not going to mind much.  We cleaned up AGAIN.  Pettersson, Hughes, Pod-Goal-Zin plus more.

 

How can this be a bad deal?  Age fits.  Size good.  Shoots where we need.  Center/W.  Makes Sutter expendable.  Keep our pick where it matters.

 

I like this.  It's good.  I'm happy.  Let's revisit in 2 seasons and see.  This is coming from a guy who was mad about Shinkaruk being traded btw

I see JT Miller solely as a winger for the Canucks unless we get multiple C injuries. I dont think he does that well on faceoffs...???

[WeneedLumme]

24 minutes ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

Okay, public retraction of that connotation, but not for pushing back against the insufferable conformism you're trying to impose on this discussion. 

Nice try hypocrite.

[grandmaster]

I looked at this guy’s stats and he looks like a definite producer. Given his age and cap hit, he is an excellent acquisition. Well worth a first. I just wish it was for a premiere defenceman. 

 

I also just looked at Jett Woo’s recent stats and he looks ready. I wonder if JB is thinking the same.

[Rush17]

3 minutes ago, SILLY GOOSE said:

 

YAYYYYYY BABY! COME ON JT MILLER!!!

[FlyLow_]

I'm not sure about him playing with Petey and Brock after watching Miller play for years now, I think he would have better chemistry with Bo and Pearson on a line that is just absolute hell to play against. We'll see what happens when we sign Panarin  

 

Panarin-Petey-Brock

Pearson-Bo-Miller

 

I just went from 6 to midnight.

Edited June 22, 2019 by FlyLow_

[Rush17]

1 minute ago, grandmaster said:

I looked at this guy’s stats and he looks like a definite producer. Given his age and cap hit, he is an excellent acquisition. Well worth a first. I just wish it was for a premiere defenceman. 

 

I also just looked at Jett Woo’s recent stats and he looks ready. I wonder if JB is thinking the same.

Woo may need another year or two. He is gonna be a stud tho! His favourite player is Shea Weber. ^^ I think he's gonna be a keeper. Bieksa like with possibly more offence!

[MystifyNCrucify]

I had knee jerk reactions to not only JT Miller, but also Podkolzin. The first is a...tough sell on a trade for “possibly” a middle six winger/centre. Tenth overall an even tougher sell to take a russian commited to the khl for another two years. 

 

I thought perhaps, that the trade was owner influence, but the draft picks still look like pure benning and brackett picks. 

 

Its easy to get worked up right now, and im sketchy about benning basically going “all in for playoffs”, but you cant discount their track record....scouting nor trading. 

 

It is pretty scary though, picking up another possible “loui” and giving up a first rounder for him. Sigh

[CaptKirk888]

Vancouver traded Kesler and a third-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft to Anaheim for center Nick Bonino, defenseman Luca Sbisa and Anaheim's first-round and third-round picks in the 2014 NHL Draft (Nos. 24 and 85).

Miller is on par or scoring more than Kesler at the same point career wise. Yes, I know Kesler went on to have two 70+ Seasons and a Selke. Just pointing out that Miller appears to be on a similar trajectory so maybe it’s not too much of an overpayment?

[Kanukfanatic]

18 minutes ago, Trebreh said:

the only Canuck 'fans' that are overreacting to this trade are those who listen to anti-Benning propaganda radio aka tsn1040 feeding them the negativity. 

 

if J.T Miller was a free agent right now he'd probably cost us Kevin Hayes money (7m)

 

Kevin Hayes is older by a year and has a career high of 49 points. J.T Miller hit 56 points with the Rangers and the only reason his point totals were low on Tampa because they were stacked offensively with Kucherov, Stamkos and Point taking most of the offensive zone starts.

 

the fact that he hit 47 points as a shutdown forward should be optimistic because he will have top line minutes playing with Petey and Boeser. He probably hits 60 points next season.

 

people are overreacting like we gave up an unprotected lottery pick for Marleau or something, he's 26 yrs old versatile and is just hitting his prime ffs. The price to acquire a player like that would cost a lot more than a 1st round pick if Tampa wasn't in cap trouble. 

 

the 2021 draft doesn't seem as deep as next year, and that's the year our pick is protected. In two years from now Petey, Brock, Demko and Hughes will be entering their prime and we add the Russian bull Podkolzin to the top 6... we will not be a lottery team by 2021.

 

 

 

Nice to see some positivity.  I just read the Tampa hf board. The fans there are not thinking they robbed us by any means. They feel they got a fair deal with a good NHL player and he was only moved so they can resign Point.

 

We got a good player and I am excited for next season. Just need a d JB......come on!!  

[captainhorvat]

For a hockey mad market thrs alot of dumb and uneducated fans on this board. This is a good deal for our club.

[DownUndaCanuck]

If we can shift Sutter for a 1st this is a brilliant deal. Considering how good JB and co have been at drafting lately, we can't afford to have a 1st round pick-less draft in either of the next 2 seasons.

[Kanukfanatic]

26 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

JT knows how much rain Vancouver gets right...coming from Tampa and all, but he was in NY so he avoids the dumps of snow at least. I am joking btw!

 

Nice to see him supposedly say Vancouver is his favourite NHL city, hard for me to believe just based on him being an American but good way to make a solid impact with the fans by saying that.

 

Now, what # is he wearing!?

He is Canadian. He wears 6 with Tampa.

 

Edit: hockey news said he was born in Sault Ste Marie but they are wrong as other sites and posters pointed out. I see he wears 10 lol.

Edited June 22, 2019 by Kanukfanatic

[danaimo]

The level of criticism of this trade shows how much people tend to overvalue draft picks especially 1st round draft picks.  The truth is, JT Miller has already outperformed most players that are also 1st round picks.  

The value of a draft pick can best be measured by the achievements of the player 5-7 years after they are drafted. So look at the numbers and decide for yourself. 

 

5 years after he was drafted, Miller had played 196 games and amassed 76 points. If you look at players drafted in 2014, at the same point in their career as JT, only 13 players have played more and 14 scored more for selections 1-30.  If you look at players drafted 17-30 (the equivalent to the pick that TAM get if VAN make the playoffs next year), 2 players played more games and only 3 scored more.  I ran the numbers for 6th year and 7th year players (2013 and 2012 draft classes) and the results are much the same.

What this shows is that even if the Canucks give up the 2021 pick, the chances are that they will have acquired a better player.  If they give up the 2020 player they almost certainly have a better player in JT Miller. 

If you look at Miller's own draft class, only the top 10 drafted players have played or scored more and no one has performed better from picks 11-30.

 

What the Canucks get is certainty.  He is a proven NHL player in the prime of his career with a reasonable cap number and they have the flexibility to move him in the future if they want to. Obviously time will tell who comes out the winner of this trade, but if you look at the numbers, the Canucks seem to have gotten better value.

[canuck73_3]

15 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

JT knows how much rain Vancouver gets right...coming from Tampa and all, but he was in NY so he avoids the dumps of snow at least. I am joking btw!

 

Nice to see him supposedly say Vancouver is his favourite NHL city, hard for me to believe just based on him being an American but good way to make a solid impact with the fans by saying that.

 

Now, what # is he wearing!?

Believe it or not Vancouver is many players favourite road city. 

[5Fivehole0]

Stole this reddit for all the naysayers. This is a great trade.

 

Situation: Listen, y'all have got it all wrong. Yes Tampa is cap strapped, but J.T. Miller is a very valuable player. Tampa absolutely wasn't lacking to find a trading partner for Miller, and they certainly didn't have to lower his price tag to trade him. Multiple teams would have been into Miller, and they would have bid each other up. If you wanted the Canucks to put Tampa to the screws, the Canucks would have ended up with Killorn or Tyler Johnson for a cheap asset cost. They were never getting Gourde or Miller for a cheap asset cost because Tampa would have had multiple trading partner options. Tampa being cap strapped is the reason he's even available at all.

Overview: J.T. Miller is about as close to a Swiss Army Knife as you can get. He's good at every aspect of hockey, and fills a massive need at the perfect age. You want a comparable? Look no further than his new linemate, Bo Horvat. Yes, Bo Horvat is still improving while Miller may not be, but J.T. Miller plays a similar style of game and they're going to be a fantastic duo. Edit: Another comparable would be T.J. Oshie.

Offense: Miller is a VERY good offensive player. Until last season, he had increasing point totals in every year. (23, 43, 56, 58). Then last year, he was buried in an incredibly deep Tampa team and pushed to third line duties. We'll get more into why later. Even on a third line role, Miller managed to put up 47 points. Coming into Vancouver, he definitely makes a return to the top 6, and likely returns to a 55-60 point level. That puts him in conversation to be potentially the Canucks second highest scoring forward by the way.

Defense: J.T. Miller is a very good two way winger. He battles well along the boards, he bangs with his body, and he backchecks well. Remember when I said I'd talk about why he was a 3rd liner on TB? It wasn't because of a lack of offense, it was because he was one of their best checking players. For only the second time in his career, he started more in the defensive zone than the offensive zone last season. What did he do there? Oh just set a new personal high in CF%, no bigs.

Conclusion: J.T. Miller is a fantastic pick up, and at 26, will be a top 6 forward lock for the next 6-7 years. He comes cost controlled, and looks to be a natural fit with Bo for years to come. At a very fair price of a second-half 1st and a 3rd, this is a fantastic deal.

[Kanukfanatic]

15 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Ok.  I just pulled in to Seattle.  Let's dissect this deal 

 

1.  He's slightly smaller but comparable to a Kevin Hayes.  Hayes was traded to Winnipeg for a 1st, 4th and solid prospect.  For 3 months.  Hayes is a winger Miller a C/W hybrid.  Miller is younger and more productive.  Hayes just signed for $7.14 million per year, Miller under contract for 4 years at a measly $5.25 million

 

2.  Just like that Sutter is expendable.  With retention.

 

3.  A centre of that level will get bank in free agency, see Bozak.

 

4.  He lifts the burden off of Horvat and Pettersson.

 

5.  The pick. It slides to 2021 if we miss the playoffs next year.  I've been saying next year is our bubble year for 2 years now.  We get another pick next year, no pick the following.

 

But by next season we will know what we have in.  DiPietro, Demko, Woo, Lind, Gadjovich, Gaudette, Madden, Brisebois and more.  

 

Honestly, while people may hate this deal.  In 2 years when this pick is going to Tampa, we're not going to mind much.  We cleaned up AGAIN.  Pettersson, Hughes, Pod-Goal-Zin plus more.

 

How can this be a bad deal?  Age fits.  Size good.  Shoots where we need.  Center/W.  Makes Sutter expendable.  Keep our pick where it matters.

 

I like this.  It's good.  I'm happy.  Let's revisit in 2 seasons and see.  This is coming from a guy who was mad about Shinkaruk being traded btw

Agreed with most of what you said. However, Sutter is expendable because of Gaudette. Miller, according to what both JB and Green have said, will play with either Petey or Bo. He will not be centering the 3rd line.