Putting the Miller trade in context: What is Horvat worth?

[Tomato Pajamas]

Hello everyone,

 

When I was watching the second round of this year's draft, I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Vancouver had made a trade, more so when I heard a conditional first rounder pick was involved. I thought to myself, it looks like Barrie's coming home, but was shocked when it was announced that the trade was with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and then livid that it was JT Miller as the return. Time has passed since then and I've given some time to let the trade stew in my heart and, to be honest, I really do think it's a fair trade.

 

Queue in the title. Would you trade Bo Horvat for a depth goaltender, a third round draft pick and a first rounder?

 

I make this comparison because there are a a bunch of similarities between the two players. 

Here are Horvat's stats compared to Miller's stats (retrieved from Hockeydb)

 

And here are their contracts, again, compared to one another (retrieved from Capfriendly).

 

Now let's begin with the comparisons. Both players have surpassed the fifty point mark in their careers, Bo doing twice (52 pts, 2016-2017; 61 pts 2018-2019) and Miller also doing it twice (56 pts, 2016-2017; 58 pts, 2017-2018). From what I have gathered, both players are considered to be good in both ends of the ice and both players kill penalties. Their contracts are actually surprising fair and similar (especially when you consider that the 27 year old Hayes was paid 7million for 7 years while only hitting above 50pts just once), with both of them being signed until 2022-2023. With the way this market is going and the fact that these two players can still trend upward in a Vancouver team that will no doubt lean on them heavily for the coming years, these contracts are an absolute bargain. 

 

While Horvat is 2 years younger, and the presumably the future captain of this franchise, it is hard not to equate him to Miller on a player to player basis. Yet how many of us would trade away Horvat for the return that Miller had retrieved? It's an interesting thought experiment because I, and many of my fellow posters here, would consider Horvat to be an untouchable, yet the general consensus here seems to be the trade for Miller was an outright overpayment. I know, I know, context matters. The Lightning were in serious cap trouble, and we seemingly gifted them a way out when they should have been forced to pay more or to demand less. No one has qualms with trading away Mazaenc, nor the third round draft pick this year. Everyone seems to gawk, to stand in awe of the conditional first rounder we surrendered to Tampa.

 

But context matters.

 

We have been basement dwellers for 4 seasons in a row, netting top 10 draft picks for 5 out of 6 seasons. How long are we going to remain terrible given that the talent we have drafted continues to develop? Is it fair to think that the likes of Hughes, Boeser, Horvat, Petterson, Juolevi, Demko, Lind, Gadjovich, Woo, Virtanen, Gaudette and some under the radar prospects cannot push us out of the lower echelon of NHL teams? We have grade A talent and these players are about to come into their own very soon, so we can only expect that this team gradually gets better. Gone are the likes of old core and the core supplemental players. The new generation of players start now. We may very well may miss the playoffs next season, but the first we gave up is lottery protected. 2 years from now, Pettersson will have gained another year of development to elevate his play, Hughes will have found his way in the big leagues, Demko will hopefully secure his reign in the net and we could potentially have Podkolzin join this team. All the while the core ages another year, reaching ever so closer to their physical prime of their mid twenties. This will be a good team in 2 years, and I do not think that conditional first will be picking in the top 10.

 

Anyways, that's all I had to say on my little soap box. Let me know what you think.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Tomato Pajamas
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[48MPHSlapShot]

Horvat is 2 years younger, a center (I understand Miller can play the position too, but Horvat took more faceoffs than anyone in the league last year and is generally very good in the dot), presumably the next captain, and last season put up better numbers than Miller ever has. As much as I like Miller, Horvat is worth far more.

Edited June 26, 2019 by 48MPHSlapShot

[Alflives]

Although Bo and TJM have similar growth curves, numbers wise, they are different players.  Bo, is a natural center, who can be extremely effective as number 2 in a shutdown role, while still putting up points.  That's a rare combination, and one teams value higher than Miller. 

I do agree with the trade though.  We needed Miller in our top six.  It's time to move forward with our young core, and support them with the best players we can get.  

[Nucker 67]

Bo is a C, who takes more faceoffs than any player in the league (53%), future captain, puts the team on his back, never complains, groomed by the Sedins, leads by example. Canucks signed him at a bargain. JT Miller is a Top 6 winger on an average team (middle 6 player on a contender).

 

I think Bo is worth quite a bit more, even though he's paid around the same.

[Fanuck]

2 minutes ago, Tomato Pajamas said:

Would you trade Bo Horvat for a depth goaltender, a third round draft pick and a first rounder?

But context matters.

 Let me know what you think.

You said yourself that context is the reasoning here.

 

The way you put it, for our organization - it would be suicide to trade BoHo for a conditional first and a couple 'throw-ins'.  For TB however, with their unreal depth (both on the main roster and in their organization overall), and their cap situation - I think looking at it from their perspective they did really, really well in the return they received. 

 

I'm concerned about the conditional first, I'm on the record saying that - but that said, I completely understand after reflection why JB did what he did and nobody can argue that we aren't better immediately after this trade.  Miller is a legit top 6 guy who should complement the core of forwards well and his dollar/term is favorable to us right now. 

 

Time will tell though, as it always does. 

[Justdean10]

If we can make the playoffs this year, the trade will be worth it. If the first becomes more than a top 10 then I wont be too happy with it. It's a gamble hoping we will make the playoffs in the next two years but I think it's doable . 

[BigCountry18]

You should consider the fact that Horvat played more defensive minutes and d-zone draws while still achieving top 6 production in points. Not to mention the intangibles. Also his progression trends up every season. I would value Horvat at 2 first round picks minimum with at least one of them being unprotected. And I still wouldn't make that trade unless one of them was the Jack Hughes pick.

[Bure_Pavel]

Bo Horvat>>>> JT Miller

[JoshuaGuy]

Put it this way, if you could get a player of Horvats caliber at that age with that contract I'd trade a first and a third plus c prospect every friggin year. 

[Darius]

They look like similar type players with regards to their size and ability to forecheck.  I think Bo has another gear in him when it comes to point production.  Get him legit top 6 wingers for a year and lets see.   Miller looks like he can take another step up too if he gets minutes with our prime time guys.  Bo is the better overall player.

 

Appreciate the OP's effort to put forth good arguments.  

[Kosmo Kramer]

My thoughts are similar to the OPs and will reserve final judgement on how Miller does here in a larger role.

 

I understand why the trade was made and we don't know who else was in on Miller and if that conditional pick was the only way we were getting him instead of another team.

 

I have read a few statistics stating similarities between Horvat and Miller and their points per 60 minutes are very similar. 

I think it's a good fit, we have to wait and see.

 

I think if we sold Horvat for anything less than a top 5 pick people would be choked, hopefully we gave them a 20th pick or worse.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, BigCountry18 said:

You should consider the fact that Horvat played more defensive minutes and d-zone draws while still achieving top 6 production in points. Not to mention the intangibles. Also his progression trends up every season. I would value Horvat at 2 first round picks minimum with at least one of them being unprotected. And I still wouldn't make that trade unless one of them was the Jack Hughes pick.

Yup. Bo plays that role that is needed on a Cup winning team.  He is a Bergeron, Kopitar, ROR kind of player.  The Leafs tried playing Tavares in that role, and look how well that worked out for them, when JT matched up against Bergeron - who btw was injured.  

[the grinder]

bo is a swiss army knife   he is the canucks Patrice beregron  ,,  he is the next captain   bo knows 

[aGENT]

He's a grittier Horvat-light 

 

If Miller was available mid year without all the cap and NTC pressure, IMO, with that contract, you're looking at a first, solid prospect and a mid pick.

 

We got a very good player at a very good price.

[MattJVD]

I'd put Horvat above Miller. Bo is better at playing centre, better at faceoffs and is the type of 2C that teams dream of having behind a hi-end scorer at 1C. 

Miller is still great though, If he plays with Petey and Boeser he has a decent shot of hitting 60 points. He's got the size and grit to really complement that line, and has the skill to keep up with them. A 20+ goal scoring, top 6, utility winger with size is something the team has been searching for for a decade. 

[Warhippy]

Horvat is essentially worthless.  Because he's not getting traded.  

 

 

[Rick Blight]

Miller's Points per Minute played last year was 0.043. That placed him 4th on a stacked Tampa team

 

To provide further perspective, Pettersson led the Canucks with 0.051 per minute played and Boeser was 2nd with 0.042.

 

Notable players with higher cap hits than Miller but fewer Points per Minute played include:

• Kevin Hayes
• T.J. Oshie
• Filip Forsberg
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
• Jeff Skinner
• Ryan Johansen
• Evander Kane
• Jamie Benn

I think we might have received pretty fair value in this trade.

[Johnny Torts]

To answer your question, 

 

1st Rounder, 2nd Rounder, (A) level prospect. To Start.  And there would be a bidding war for Bo's services.

 

No guarantee and highly unlikely any of those picks or that prospect would touch the great two way/power forward ability of the Bull. 

 

I like to think of Bo as the new age power forward with hands and skill and speed. 

 

JT is good, he' a top 6 forward for sure, he' a centre, but he' not Bo! 

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

Miller's Points per Minute played last year was 0.043. That placed him 4th on a stacked Tampa team

 

To provide further perspective, Pettersson led the Canucks with 0.051 per minute played and Boeser was 2nd with 0.042.

 

Notable players with higher cap hits than Miller but fewer Points per Minute played include:

• Kevin Hayes
• T.J. Oshie
• Filip Forsberg
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
• Jeff Skinner
• Ryan Johansen
• Evander Kane
• Jamie Benn

I think we might have received pretty fair value in this trade.

All while playing a solid 2 way, bottom 6 minutes, zone starts etc.

 

Fans are going to love him when they finally get to see him on Petey's wing.

[JM_]

5 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

Miller's Points per Minute played last year was 0.043. That placed him 4th on a stacked Tampa team

 

To provide further perspective, Pettersson led the Canucks with 0.051 per minute played and Boeser was 2nd with 0.042.

 

Notable players with higher cap hits than Miller but fewer Points per Minute played include:

• Kevin Hayes
• T.J. Oshie
• Filip Forsberg
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
• Jeff Skinner
• Ryan Johansen
• Evander Kane
• Jamie Benn

I think we might have received pretty fair value in this trade.

we did. It was still expensive but we got quality back. It was painfully clear that Petey and Brocks line needed a player like this, and we really had no one to take that role on our roster. Miller-Petey-Brock is a legit NHL top line that teams will have a hard time stopping.