2020 NHL Entry Draft - Round 1 Oct.6 @ 4pm PST (SN). Rounds 2-7 Oct.7 @ 8:30am (SN1)

[WeneedLumme]

9 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

This 2020 draft has been touted as one of the stronger ones in the last couple years. First overall pick or not getting our pick back in the middle of the 1rst round would be very exciting. Noel Gunler, Connor Zary and Dylan Holloway sign me up! This draft I think could be very exciting for some fallers without a chance to raise their stock.

So at this point in the team's development, you feel that it would be better for the team to lose and get an exciting mid round pick that might help us several years down the road, than to get some playoff experience for Petey and Huggy and Brock and Bo and Jake and the rest of the boys?

 

Not to mention the weeks of premium entertainment a playoff run would provide to those of us fans who prefer to see our team playing and winning rather than being on the outside looking in at other teams competing for the big prize. Or the fact that being a playoff team gives us a much better chance of signing players like Toffoli than losing would.

 

Being losers is really not that wonderful a situation to many of us.

[Nave]

Had the approach that if we win the play-in series, we get valuable playoff experience, and if we lose, we get our pick back in a deep draft. 
Now, if we lose, we have 12.5% odds to get 1st overall... That's better odds than we've had in a long time.
We've had such bad luck in the lottery with dropping every time. Imagine if we move up and get Lafreniere...

[JustABandwagoner]

5 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

Ah, I see the problem here. You really do not understand statistics at all. If you had any knowledge in that area, you would be aware that what you posted here is ignorant nonsense.

 

While we clearly are not the favourite to win the cup, to say that we have zero chance to win is a statement only a troll or a simpleton would make, since it is patently untrue.

Fine. To make you so called fking HAPPY we have a 1/24 odds of winning the Stanley cup. I would rather take the 1/12 with Laf. Additionally if you look at odds, im sure the vegas betting system has us winning the cup <5%. 

 

EDIT: If you are going to be that ANNOYING 

 

Qualifying round: 1/2 because its us vs MIN

1st rd: 1/2 because its us vs another team

2nd rd: 1/2 us vs another team

3rd rd: 1/2 us vs another team

4th rd: 1/2  us vs another team

 

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 0.03125 x 100 = 3.125% odds assuming there is equal chance of winning each round. Obviously theres more math to this cuz how can there be equal odds when one team is better than the other and there is also luck where injuries may occur, bad day, etc. 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by DontMessMe

[Nave]

4 minutes ago, DontMessMe said:

Fine. To make you so called fking HAPPY we have a 1/24 odds of winning the Stanley cup. I would rather take the 1/12 with Laf. Additionally if you look at odds, im sure the vegas betting system has us winning the cup <5%. 

I actually think we have a fairly good chance of winning the cup. Maybe not as good as we would at getting Lafreniere if we lose in the qualifying round. But, we could surprise teams. If Pettersson catches fire watch out. 

[flickyoursedin]

13 hours ago, RetroCanuck said:

Yep, and its not like we are cup contenders so why not get a top 15 pick in this deep draft?

Either way enjoy the ride. Playoffs or not there’s a lot to be excited about even after Alexis Lafreniere.

[flickyoursedin]

4 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

So at this point in the team's development, you feel that it would be better for the team to lose and get an exciting mid round pick that might help us several years down the road, than to get some playoff experience for Petey and Huggy and Brock and Bo and Jake and the rest of the boys?

 

Not to mention the weeks of premium entertainment a playoff run would provide to those of us fans who prefer to see our team playing and winning rather than being on the outside looking in at other teams competing for the big prize. Or the fact that being a playoff team gives us a much better chance of signing players like Toffoli than losing would.

 

Being losers is really not that wonderful a situation to many of us.

Not what I meant. Was only trying to add that there’s more names that should be exciting in the draft if we don’t win. Obviously playoffs would be better but there’s still excitement for me with the players that could be available at our pick.

[King Heffy]

16 minutes ago, flickyoursedin said:

Not what I meant. Was only trying to add that there’s more names that should be exciting in the draft if we don’t win. Obviously playoffs would be better but there’s still excitement for me with the players that could be available at our pick.

Schneider, Sanderson, or Guhle please.  Three defensemen with good size and skating ability who defend well.  Slight preference for the right-handed Schneider.  At least two of these guys should be available.

Edited June 27, 2020 by King Heffy

[JustABandwagoner]

#TEAMTANK 

[WeneedLumme]

2 hours ago, DontMessMe said:

Fine. To make you so called fking HAPPY we have a 1/24 odds of winning the Stanley cup. I would rather take the 1/12 with Laf. Additionally if you look at odds, im sure the vegas betting system has us winning the cup <5%. 

 

EDIT: If you are going to be that ANNOYING 

 

Qualifying round: 1/2 because its us vs MIN

1st rd: 1/2 because its us vs another team

2nd rd: 1/2 us vs another team

3rd rd: 1/2 us vs another teams

4th rd: 1/2  us vs another team

 

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 0.03125 x 100 = 3.125% odds assuming there is equal chance of winning each round. Obviously theres more math to this cuz how can there be equal odds when one team is better than the other and there is also luck where injuries may occur, bad day, etc. 

 

 

Evidently math is not your friend, so I will help you out here. The question is, "At this point, is it better to make the playoffs or to have a chance of picking first overall?"

 

If we miss the playoffs, as I understand it we now have a one in eight chance of picking first overall, or 12.5%, not the one in twelve (8.33%) chance you suggest. See, that's better than you thought, told you I was helping you. 

 

But if we make the playoffs, we have roughly a one in 16 chance to win the Cup. We are not one of the favorites and it certainly would be no huge surprise to see the kids get bounced in the first round. However, it would also not be a shock if healthy rested Petey, Huggy, Brock, Bo, Miller, Toffi, Pearson, Jake, Marky etc. stepped up and went for a long playoff run.

 

So I would say that our chances are about average, so 1 out of the 16 teams or 1/(2x2x2x2) equals about 6.25% chance of winning the Cup.

 

However, if we make the playoffs, we have a 100% chance of seeing the boys play at least 4 playoff games. And about a 50% chance of seeing them play at least 2 rounds. And a 25% chance of seeing them in the conference finals, and a 12.5% chance of seeing them in the Cup finals. In any of those scenarios those of us who are Canucks fans get some premium entertainment which is the entire purpose of the team's existence, and the kids get some extremely valuable playoff experience. And of course as a playoff team we become significantly more desirable to free agents.

 

So given the choice between:

 

- some (possibly a lot of) quality entertainment, some valuable experience for the kids, a better chance of acquiring sought-after UFAs, and a 6.25% chance of winning a Cup, or

- a 12.5% chance of drafting a player who might become a star who could help us at some point in the future, or who might become another Patrick Stefan or Alexandre Daigle or even a Claude Gauthier/Andre Veilleux/Rick Pagnutti,

 

I am pretty sure that the vast majority of real Canucks fans would go for the gusto rather than choosing to be losers.

[Ajax-]

Question please.  

As I understand it, if we loose the play in round to the Wild we retain our traded pick and enter the second lottery with 12.5% odds to pick first. Is it only the 1st selection that can be won?.

Additionally,  if the play in and hub tournaments are cancelled all together do the Canucks finish in the last wildcard spot or 9th? Standings when league paused or final points/game?

 

Thanks

 

 

[D-Money]

5 minutes ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

Question please.  

As I understand it, if we loose the play in round to the Wild we retain our traded pick and enter the second lottery with 12.5% odds to pick first. Is it only the 1st selection that can be won?.

Additionally,  if the play in and hub tournaments are cancelled all together do the Canucks finish in the last wildcard spot or 9th? Standings when league paused or final points/game?

 

Thanks

The lottery determines who gets pick #1. The 7 teams that don't win it get picks #9-15, depending on where they were in the standings.

 

If the Canucks lose the play in round and the lottery, they're likely going to be picking close to 15th. Unless there are a lot of upsets in the first round of higher-seeded teams, 

[Ajax-]

4 hours ago, D-Money said:

The lottery determines who gets pick #1. The 7 teams that don't win it get picks #9-15, depending on where they were in the standings.

 

If the Canucks lose the play in round and the lottery, they're likely going to be picking close to 15th. Unless there are a lot of upsets in the first round of higher-seeded teams, 

Ok, thanks

 

So if the entire thing is shut down, no return to play, do we keep or loose the first round we traded to TBL (NJ)?

Do we finish in 8th or 9th based on standings or points per game when the league was paused?

 

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

32 minutes ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

Ok, thanks

 

So if the entire thing is shut down, no return to play, do we keep or loose the first round we traded to TBL (NJ)?

Do we finish in 8th or 9th based on standings or points per game when the league was paused?

 

 

Here’s the NHL statement on draft order:

 

2020 NHL DRAFT ORDER

1. Placeholder team

2. Los Angeles Kings

3. Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks)

4. Detroit Red Wings

5. Ottawa Senators

6. Anaheim Ducks

7. New Jersey Devils

8. Buffalo Sabres

Picks 4-8 were determined based on inverse order of regular-season points percentage.

Picks No. 9-15 will be assigned to the other teams that lose the eight qualifier series, in inverse order of their points percentage.

Picks 16-31 will be determined by the results of the playoffs.

[Ajax-]

3 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Here’s the NHL statement on draft order:

 

2020 NHL DRAFT ORDER

1. Placeholder team

2. Los Angeles Kings

3. Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks)

4. Detroit Red Wings

5. Ottawa Senators

6. Anaheim Ducks

7. New Jersey Devils

8. Buffalo Sabres

Picks 4-8 were determined based on inverse order of regular-season points percentage.

Picks No. 9-15 will be assigned to the other teams that lose the eight qualifier series, in inverse order of their points percentage.

Picks 16-31 will be determined by the results of the playoffs.

Yes thanks I'm clear on that, appreciated 

 

What I'm asking is what happens if there is NO play in, NO playoffs, the season is cancelled?.

[DeNiro]

9 minutes ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

Yes thanks I'm clear on that, appreciated 

 

What I'm asking is what happens if there is NO play in, NO playoffs, the season is cancelled?.

The next 8 teams (after the 7 that just drew) based on points percentage (4 from each conference), will draw for the first overall and then the rest would be ordered from 9-31 based on points percentage.

[Ajax-]

8 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

The next 8 teams (after the 7 that just drew) based on points percentage (4 from each conference), will draw for the first overall and then the rest would be ordered from 9-31 based on points percentage.

So if the season is cancelled tomorrow,  would the Canucks finish 8th in the western conference and have to surrender their first round pick?

 

Or do they finish 9th based on standings on March 12 when season was paused?  And retain this year's 1st round pick? 

[DeNiro]

1 minute ago, AbrasiveAjax said:

So if the season is cancelled tomorrow,  would the Canucks finish 8th in the western conference and have to surrender their first round pick?

 

Or do they finish 9th based on standings on March 12 when season was paused?  And retain this year's 1st round pick? 

We would be considered a playoff team and surrender our pick to New Jersey (15th overall I believe)

 

That is the worst case scenario because it means no playoff experience or chance at 1OA.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

22 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

We would be considered a playoff team and surrender our pick to New Jersey (15th overall I believe)

 

That is the worst case scenario because it means no playoff experience or chance at 1OA.

Everything you said, except I believe the pick we’d be surrendering to NJ would be 17th overall.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

 

[Ajax-]

1 hour ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

 

Thanks Sid, thanks Bob