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[Discussion] Winnipeg Jets window has closed


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I’ll happily eat crow when the jets inevitably prove me wrong and win a cup this year, but right now I believe that their window has passed. 

 

Cap problems have caught up to them. Ehlers, Laine, and Connor are all going to be signed to massive contracts. On top of that, Wheelers 5 year 8.25 mill AAv contract kicks in this season. Wheeler is a really good hockey player but that’s a lot of money to be paying a guy till he’s 37. On top of that, middle 6 centre Brian little is collecting over 5 mill for another 5 years. Jets have a roster of 15 and 22 million in cap space. To get to a roster size of 23, that’s an average of 2.75 million per player. Pretend laine and Connor come in at 15 mill combined (probably low balling it) that means they have 7 million to sign 6 players. Gunna be a lot of league minimum contracts to fill out the roster. 

 

The defense was decimated this off season, with Trouba, Myers, and Chariot all leaving. They still have big buff for two more years but at 34 and with the injury troubles he’s had, he’s slipping from the reliable #1 D-man he once was. Pionk, niku, etc are nice complimentary pieces right now, but basically josh morrisey will be the one carrying this D-core pretty soon. They may try and sign Jake Gardiner, but they’re cap space is so limited that this will be a challenge. 

 

While they do have some solid prospects, their overall prospect pool is pretty middling. Likely the only ELC player they have who can be an impact player next year is Vesalinen. With the departure of Tanev from their bottom 6, the jets will have a hard time filling out depth roles without competent ELC players (aka gaudette type players). 

 

Obviously, the jets still have some great pieces. Scheifle is a legit #1 centre on a great contract. Hellybuck is a young, solid goalie. And the three young wingers mentioned earlier (ehlers, Connor, laine) will be top 6 scorers their whole careers. But the reality is the Jets are a worse team now than last season with worse cap problems. It will be difficult for the GM to get it back to where it once was. 

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But in that sense it seems weird that the Caps won the cup many years into Ovechkin's career.  Boston is a great example also.  As long as a team is managed well with prospects and they move that cap space, they can stretch that window a couple more years.

 

Or you can be like Edmonton and mismanage your team straight into cap hell.

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I think Chi...as much as I hate to admit is, is...or was a great model to follow. Establish who your core is, build around those 3-4 players and when it comes time to re-sign players who are expecting big raises ie; Ladd, Buffugly, Bolland, cut them loose and trade them for assets back and maintain your core with flexible cap space.

 

Chi followed this model for quite a few years and had huge success with it, but then came bringing back old players, retaining to many players who were due for big paydays.

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7 hours ago, 6string said:

If the wheels fall off, blame the goalie or blame the coach and even the city or the arena lol...

 

I hope they can hang in there, they are Columbus west.

You can draft them and trade for them but will they want to stay.   Feel sorry for their fans, two years of contending flushed away in a few short weeks.   The best they can hope for is stellar goaltending and great cap management and GMing to turn things around, they still have a great forward group but as we’ve all know in the playoffs that’s rarely enough.

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40 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

Would anyone be shocked if Laine receives an 8-digit offer sheet and the Jets don't match?  Or perhaps, they then work out a trade and get 2-3 prime assets and picks in return?  The latter could really help replenish what they lost.

Ya, Laine is one dimensional.  It is however, the most valuable dimension, scoring goals, so somebody might offer sheet him.  I wouldn't.

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Agree. They need to trade Ehlers especially with emergence of Connor. Can't have two similar type players making upwards of 15 mil.

 

But it could re-open in a matter of a year or two. Say they miss the playoffs one year, win the lottery, insert ______ on an ELC on top of what they already have. 

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7 hours ago, Pears said:

Winnipeg needs some cap relief as well as a capable top 4 RD. We still need another top six winger. Solution? Tanev at 50% retained and a 3rd or 2nd round pick for Nikolaj Ehlers. 

I think Ehlers is redundant on Jets, 6 mil for 21 goals and 37 points? His role has been taken over by Kyle Connor, 2 time 30 goal scorer. Their top 4 forward core of Schiefele, Wheelers, Laine, and Connor is better than most other team's top 4 forward core group. I don't see a place for Ehlers on Jets. Their problem is and has been 2nd line center.

 

If we retain Tanev at 50%, they save 4 mil in cap and gain Tanev for at least a year. I wouldn't add a 3rd or 2nd. That 4 mil space can get you a decent 2nd line center.

 

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Quite frankly, I think Toronto’s window has closed as well.  Even with Barrie, the Leafs aren’t as good as they were last year.  If Barrie walks at the end of the season, Leafs will be in mediocre territory.

 

In today’s NHL, it just goes to show how quickly windows can open and close.   Canucks’ last window was 2010-2013.  Chicago was 2009-2016, and even then, they had a slight speed bump from 2010-2012 after they won their 1st cup.

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1 hour ago, khay said:

Agree. They need to trade Ehlers especially with emergence of Connor. Can't have two similar type players making upwards of 15 mil.

 

But it could re-open in a matter of a year or two. Say they miss the playoffs one year, win the lottery, insert ______ on an ELC on top of what they already have. 

Would WAY take Connor over Ehlers, not the least reason being he can play C.

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I'm wondering if the day will come when the Canucks are faced with having to lose one (or more) of their stars to fit under the cap. Will they eventually be able to pay Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Hughes, Juolevi, Woo and Demko? I think there could be some very tough decisions down the road.

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10 hours ago, Quinn_Jet said:

I think Chi...as much as I hate to admit is, is...or was a great model to follow. Establish who your core is, build around those 3-4 players and when it comes time to re-sign players who are expecting big raises ie; Ladd, Buffugly, Bolland, cut them loose and trade them for assets back and maintain your core with flexible cap space.

 

Chi followed this model for quite a few years and had huge success with it, but then came bringing back old players, retaining to many players who were due for big paydays.

They kind of had to after winning the cup, most players are looking to get paid for their efforts. We need to win the cup first. 

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There were reports that they were shopping Perrault before the draft. He has 2 years at 4.13 left on his deal. Wonder if we could poach him for cheap. Goldy and a mid pick? 

Could be a nice complementary piece to Bo and Pearson and the cap won't interfere with Petterson's next deal. 

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22 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

I'm wondering if the day will come when the Canucks are faced with having to lose one (or more) of their stars to fit under the cap. Will they eventually be able to pay Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Hughes, Juolevi, Woo and Demko? I think there could be some very tough decisions down the road.

The salary cap has pretty much insured that the likelyhood of a 'dynasty' is slim.  Even teams that win one championship can end up back in the contending pile and eventually have start to their rebuild at some point.  Holding onto star players, all the while having the top role players surrounding them, appears to be next to impossible.

 

I think the Canucks are safe for now, as they have staggared their player contracts so that they can pay the core as they come up to RFA.  When Pete and Quinn become RFAs; Sutter, Baer, Pearson, Benn & Edler become UFAs.  That's around $20m right there.  It is also the final year of Loui's contract ($6m can be bought out) and Lou's ($3m), so that would be 29m off the cap.  I assume the cap would be going up by then as well.

 

Of course those players' leaving the team, will have to be replaced; hopefully by prospects in Utica/Euro teams.  One would think, that after 2 more seasons of hockey, there has to be at least 2 or 3 players ready to make the jump. 

 

If they can continue to staggar the contracts and replace ufas with elcs they should be able to hang on into the 'contender stage' and maybe win a cup in a few years.  It's a tough balance; especially when an unexpected later rounder prospect becomes a top tier player, or if other teams start to poach your rfas and drive the price up.

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