Benning's Window of Opportunity

[tas]

all i know for sure is that for the first time in probably 7 years, I'm more excited for the season than I was for the offseason. 

[kanucks25]

5 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

And younger cheaper players that Benning has and will draft will fill those spots.

Well I'll believe it when I see it, because so far Benning has 5 drafts (well 6, but this one that just happened doesn't count) under his belt and a non-1st rounder has yet to make an impact.

 

And this team is naturally going to get better, so we won't be picking in the top-10 going forward.

[24K PureCool]

Our window opens when Podkolzen comes in in 2 years swinging. Also Barrie will help as well.

[stawns]

2 hours ago, JamesB said:

This is the second time I have started a thread with "Window of Opportunity" in the title. The last time was, I think, back in 2010 after the 2009-10 season when there was a lot of media speculation about the Canucks window of opportunity. There has not been much reason to think seriously about a Window of Opportunity in recent years. But maybe things have changed.

 

At any given time there are maybe 5 or 6 teams in a window opportunity (WO). I would say that any team in the top 4 or 5 in the regular season plus any other teams that make it to the SCF are in a window of opportunity. But the precise definition does not matter. The question is, when will the Canucks have another legitimate shot at a Cup?

 

History.

Back in 2010 a lot people thought the Canucks were in a WO and were speculating about when the team would peak -- reaching their best chance to win the Cup, and about how long the WO would last.

 

There were of course some CDC optimists who refused to think about possible decline. I think the most popular comment in the thread was something to the effect that "We don't need to worry about any f***ing windows. We going to kick down the f***ng door."

 

But more realistic assessments look at how old the team's elite players are, how old the other core players are, the Cap situation, and a team's young players and prospects.

I think the media consensus was about right in 2010. The Canucks were 5th in the league in 2010, were the best regular season team in 2011 when they went to the SCF, were the best regular season team again in 2012 (when the lost in the first playoff round to LA, who ultimately won the Cup), and were still good in 2013. That was pretty much it -- a solid 4-year WO that did everything but actually produce a Cup. After that, their elite players (the Sedins) were passed their prime. Same with other core players like Burrows, Hammer and Kesler, and Salo had retired, and the team had cap issues and a weak pipeline of prospects and young players. (Remember when Brendan Gaunce, the Canucks 2012 first round pick, was the top prospect in the system.)

 

The Linden Plan.

It has been well-known for a while that part of the conflict between Linden and Aquilini (FA) was over timing. I saw an offhand remark in a Ben Kuzma article recently that Linden wanted a 4-year plan -- 4 years until they could open another WO, as of last summer. I don't know if this is what Linden proposed but, Linden actually said this or not, it is a widely held view that is worth thinking about. The Canucks had some good pieces in place -- Horvat, Boeser, EP, Hughes, along some other good prospects. But, arguably, they needed a couple more high drafts of comparable quality along with a bunch more other picks that would hopefully yield a few good players. 

 

The Benning Plan

The Benning plan was to contend for the playoffs as soon as possible, bringing in UFAs to give the team a quick boost. This is allegedly what FA wanted. Last year's team showed some improvement but was still not very good. But Benning has gone "all-in" for 2019-20, bringing in expensive UFAs and trading away a future first round pick (which is very rare for a rebuilding team except as part of deal to bring in other good young players) -- 2 years earlier than what I have called the Linden plan.

 

Benning has been doing this to some extent all along, but this summer he went further.

 

Will the Benning Plan Produce a WO

 

Personally, I have always favored what I describe above as the Linden Plan -- go through an all-out rebuild and try to build a Cup contender, even if it takes a while.

The problem with the Benning plan is that it might get you to the playoffs but is less likely to build an actual Cup contender.

 

However, it is certainly possible that the Benning plan will open a new WO. That is what this threada is about -- not just about the playoffs, but about building an actual Cup contender.

 

Here are some considerations:

 

1. The big names Benning has brought in -- Myers, Miller, Benn, Pearson -- not to mention Beagle, Sutter, Eriksson, and Roussel, are veterans. Realistically we cannot expect any of those guys to improve with age beyond what happens this year (2019-20). So if the Canucks don't open a WO this year, those guys will, in a sense, have peaked too early and, as time goes on, will be less valuable and will take up a lot of cap room.

 

2. The Canucks had "loads of cap room". Now, looking ahead two years, they are going to have cap problems when EP and Hughes need to be resigned.

 

3. There are still some hopeful signs in the pipeline. Juolevi could still turn out be good. Woo could be very good. Tryamkin might come back in  2020-21, Podkolzin (who should join the team in 2020-21) looks very good and there are bunch of other prospects who have some chance of developing into helpful NHL players.

 

4. And the biggest question is: what is the ceiling for EP, Boeser, and Hughes? Will they be like the Sedins and just keep getting better, carrying the team along with them. Or will they plateau as good core players but not reaching the elite status needed to create a Cup contender.

 

My personal view is that this team is likely to peak in 2020-21. Guys like Horvat and Boeser should be in their peak and EP will be close and I expect Hughes to be an "early bloomer". The UFAs and Miller should still be pretty good. Tryamkin and Podkolzin should help the team and it will be before the EP/Hughes cap crunch. That is one year earlier than under the Linden plan.

 

Anyway, I would appreciate any comments.

 

As long as JB & Co keep on drafting the way they have until now, there's nothing to worry about.  I don't want to see our young stars keep losing.......I want Bo, Petey, Boes, QH, JV etc to have some playoff experience when they hit their prime years.  Can you name a single team that built a Cup winner the way you describe the "Linden Way"?  

 

As long as they drafting talent and character and keep improving the development system (which will only improve as the prospect pool keeps filling) I can see them having a good long window of success.

[Salacious Crumb]

34 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

You should have used "WOO" as the acronym for "window of opportunity" so it would read like Ric Flair wrote it.

The Nature Boy. Long may he rule.

[stawns]

53 minutes ago, Pears said:

We’ll be playoff teams for the next couple years, there’s no doubt in my mind about that. 2022 is when we’ll really start making that ascent to an elite team. 

I agree, I think the timing for these moves is perfect.  I want to see the young core battle hardened when they hit their peak years. 

 

What I don't get is why these moves by JB are considered, by some, as a move to get in the playoffs this year and then crash again.  I think they've done a great job at having good players at several different stages of their careers.......unlike Alberta, he's been able to successfully build an excellent pipeline in BC.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

I agree, I think the timing for these moves is perfect.  I want to see the young core battle hardened when they hit their peak years. 

 

What I don't get is why these moves by JB are considered, by some, as a move to get in the playoffs this year and then crash again.  I think they've done a great job at having good players at several different stages of their careers.......unlike Alberta, he's been able to successfully build an excellent pipeline in BC.

Exactly @stawns  JB has built a great young (under 24) core.  They are supported by well priced experienced players who are in their primes.  And there are excellent prospects coming up to take the place of the support players as they age.  I see a decade of winning.  

[Glug Datt]

There's no shortage of examples of teams that make the playoffs frequently but aren't really ever contenders. As mentioned, there's only really a few contenders each year, and obviously only one winner. However as this last post-season proved, things aren't always as they appear..

 

We all want Van to win a cup before we die.. the thing is tho, as fans, we also just want our team to be in the dance every year. Whether or not they win it all is almost irrelevant - it's certainly not going to happen every year. But it's the continuing possibility that we're buying into. That hope fuels our passion, in turn selling tickets, merch, and building the franchise. 

 

Something to consider is FA's ultimate goal. The point was made that there may have been a difference in opinion on the rebuild timeframe, but as much of a hockey fan as FA might be, he's also a business man, which would explain him wanting to return to the playoffs sooner than later. 

 

I'm not convinced we will be able to beat out enough teams this season to make the playoffs, but I'd put money on 20-21. However, I also think returning to the dance sooner is better. Even tho some of the vets will peak too soon, and some core pieces might even move on, it's all part of the process.. We can't expect to finally assemble a great team in one season and then simply win it all - the kids need to experience the playoffs, success and failures alike. 

 

And with these post-season trials, there's a fanbase to build, hype to generate, & plenty of money to be made.. 

[48MPHSlapShot]

2 years.

 

We'll be competitive this season and the next, likely right there in the wildcard hunt. I'd even go so far as to say there's a good chance we make the playoffs this year and next year, but we won't be a favorite. In two years our core players (Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, Demko) should all be pretty much in their prime. Podkolzin will be on his entry level contract, but coming over from the KHL, will hopefully be able to step into the lineup right away and contribute. Similar situation with Hoglander, who I also have high hopes for. Hopefully Virtanen, MacEwen and Gaudette will have found their NHL games as well and be regular contributors. Juolevi will hopefully have made the lineup and be a regular by then as well. Madden, Lockwood and Woo should all be making the jump around that time as well. Miller, Pearson and Ferland should still be regular contributors as well, seeing as none of them will even be 30 by that point.

 

The biggest question is the blueline. Hughes looks like a lock, and Stetcher should be a mainstay on the blueline for a long time. Myers at that point will still be locked up for 3 years at that point. Other than that, it's a bit of a mystery. Will Edler be one of these defensemen that can play high end hockey well into his 30's? Will Myers be as effective at that point? Will Tryamkin be back in the fray? Will Woo and Lockwood make the jump? Will Juolevi have established himself by that point? Regardless of all of this, we have to find a way to nab ourselves a top pairing right D by this point to truly be contenders. 

 

But yeah, 2 years 'till we're a legit cup threat.

[I.Am.Ironman]

1 hour ago, kanucks25 said:

Well I'll believe it when I see it, because so far Benning has 5 drafts (well 6, but this one that just happened doesn't count) under his belt and a non-1st rounder has yet to make an impact.

 

And this team is naturally going to get better, so we won't be picking in the top-10 going forward. 

I think it is fair to say that Baertschi has made an impact. So in a way that is a 2nd rounder that has made an impact, via trade. I'll also throw in Tryamkin, albeit for only 1 year..... so far. The later round picks typically take longer to develop so we won't see those guys for a few years after they are drafted.

 

Hopefully Gaudette can add to that list either this year. Honorable mention to Hutton.

[Rob_Zepp]

3 hours ago, JamesB said:

The Benning Plan

The Benning  Linden plan was to contend for the playoffs as soon as possible,

FIFY.   Linden felt he owed that to the Sedins and that was direction to Benning.   Once that was no longer the driver, the true Benning era began.    

[6string]

Into expansion year of 21/22 Colorado and Vancouver will be the best rivalry in the WC and the top two teams too!

[Crabcakes]

2 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I think a primary difference between this opening and the last one is that in 2010, the twins were 29 years old, and turned 30 prior to the start of the 2010-11 season. While we have many supporting players in their late 20s, our core players are all 24 or younger. A counter-point would be that we're still not as good as we were in 2009-10, so the case could be made it would take another two or three years for our team  to become a 100+ point team as we were back then, meaning our core players would be a bit older.

Was going to post something similar myself.  The twins were quite old when the finally got their shot at the cup.  Too old to pull off a successful retool in order to take a 2nd run.

 

Let's look at the Black Hawks.

 

2006........draft Toews

2007........draft Kane

 

2010.......won Stanley Cup   (Toews 22, Kane 21)

 

retool

 

2013........won Stanley Cup (Toews 25, Kane 24)

 

retool

 

2015.......won Stanley Cup (Toews 27, Kane 26)

 

I don't think that what the Hawks did is always possible but if a team is competing for the cup when the core is young, there may be more than one window.  

 

Keep in mind, Keith was drafted in 2002 and Seabrook and Crawford were drafted in 2003

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, Crabcakes said:

Was going to post something similar myself.  The twins were quite old when the finally got their shot at the cup.  Too old to pull off a successful retool in order to take a 2nd run.

 

Let's look at the Black Hawks.

 

2006........draft Toews

2007........draft Kane

 

2010.......won Stanley Cup   (Toews 22, Kane 21)

 

retool

 

2013........won Stanley Cup (Toews 25, Kane 24)

 

retool

 

2015.......won Stanley Cup (Toews 27, Kane 26)

 

I don't think that what the Hawks did is always possible but if a team is competing for the cup when the core is young, there may be more than one window.  

 

Keep in mind, Keith was drafted in 2002 and Seabrook and Crawford were drafted in 2003

When people make comparisons with teams that were gifted 1st and 3rd overall picks and then use that as a comparison with a team that has not drafted in those positions for decades - well, it is apples and oranges.   Sure there are great players in each draft but there is something special typically about the first couple and teams that get one of those every ten years are lucky - to get two that close is insanely lucky.    Only Edmonton has managed to take such luck and seemingly get worse.

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

If the team stays healthy, the team gets superb goaltending and better behind the blue line I feel the next couple seasons they will be battling for the wild card spots at least. If all goes right their WOO will arrive 2021. 

[Glug Datt]

4 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Interesting thread, JamesB..sorry, my first reply I'd hardly skimmed thru, & just read more closely now.

 

Gotta say with this general notion (WOOppor) I'm a little skeptical. Recent Caps Cup for example, I would've figured their window was almost closed. Maybe Pens too.

 

All the way back to our '94 run, is a good example of things just 'coming together' at the right way/moment. Although of course, pre-cap times.

 

**************************************************************::

 

The greatest indicator of coming success, might be a superb(perhaps 4 or 5 yr period??) of drafting, where you accumulate resources to potentially(near future) stock half the roster of a quality team. It's too early to call, but I think JB(& crew) might've just done this.

 

Within the constraints/parity of a strict cap system, I'd reckon this is the best barometer of what's to come.

 yah when you think of all the variables that have to fall into place to build a truly great team - drafting / developing, trades / FA signings, coaching, chemistry, players peaking at the right time, etc - you're still fighting against injuries and maybe most importantly, fighting against 30 other teams trying to do the same thing. (And in the case of the Canucks, fighting against the refs ) 

 

A lot has to come together at the right time to win it all. 

[Kotkeniemi's mole]

 

[Kotkeniemi's mole]

With the defence beefed up with Tyler Myers, Jordie Benn, and Quinn Hughes, as well as acquiring Michael Ferland, we have a good shot at a playoff run. Maybe not in 2019-2020, but in the near future.

[King Heffy]

We have a strong team now and a good pipeline of young talent going forward.  I think 20-21is the sweet spot, being the last season of EP/Hughes' ELCs.

Edited July 15, 2019 by King Heffy

[Smashian Kassian]

I think the timing you gave in the "Linden plan" is about when our window will open. To me its minimum 3 years, I voted for the last option.

 

I'd like to think 2-3 years b/c we have the pieces, but realistically our young core hasn't sniffed playoffs yet, let alone gone through some ups & downs in the post season.

 

I think we are close to the playoffs, but being a true contender I don't quite see it on the horizon yet. I know we're going for it now, but still keep drafting & developing. Even add picks where we can, because we'll need some guys drafted outside 1st Rd to hit. 

 

You look at recent SC winners & when they're core players were drafted, compared to when the team finally wins:

 

STL: Pietrangelo (2008), ROR (2009), Schenn (2009), Taranseko (2010), Schwartz (2010), Binnington (2011), Edmunson (2011), Parayko (2012), exc.

 

WSH: Ovechin (2004), Oshie (2005), Backstrom (2006), Carlson (2008), Holtby (2008), Kuznetsov (2010), Wilson (2012), Niskanen (2005), exc.

 

PIT: Fluery (2003), Malkin (2004), Sid (2005), Letang (2005), Hornqvist (2005), Daley (2005), Kessel (2006), Bonino (2007), Murray (2012), Maatta (2012), Guentzel (2013), exc.

 

Even our 2011 team: Luongo (97), Twins (99), Kesler (03), Bieksa (01), Hamhuis (01), Ehrhoff (01), Edler (04), Hansen (04), Higgins (02), Malhotra (98), Salo (96), Raymond (05), Torres (00), exc.

 

Just need to keep building. Our young core getting playoff experience will be the first step, then supplementing those guys as they grow from there will be the 2nd step.