Benning's Window of Opportunity

[kanucks25]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

What?  I'd say the pre-planning is rock solid........some fans are just bitter because they refused to look for the forest through the trees while it was happening.  Those of us who looked at the bigger picture saw where it was going, so we're not surprised he pulled it off. 

He pulled what off? 5 years of ineptitude and nothing to show for it so far?

 

Or did I hibernate through our Cup victory lol

[189lb enforcers?]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

What?  I'd say the pre-planning is rock solid........some fans are just bitter because they refused to look for the forest through the trees while it was happening.  Those of us who looked at the bigger picture saw where it was going, so we're not surprised he pulled it off. 

Can you describe aspects of the plan that actually went as planned?

 

Objectively? 

 

A plan consists of all sorts of objectives. What were they? How were they achieved?

 

First, you’ll have to start on the premise that you understood what the plan was, a position I won’t hold you to.

 

I’m not being facetious here. I’m genuinely curious as to what the plan was.

 

The bigger picture... curious how you'll evaluate the results against the Plan. 

 

[Davathor]

I voted 2-3 seasons away.. the reason being that a lot of dead weight will come off the books, cap should jump up in 2 seasons, and that also gives Tryamkin and Pod time to join the Canucks.

 

Hughes will have matured past Doughty in his prime, Boeser will have a 50 goal season under his belt, Horvat will have 2 Selkes under his belt, and Petey will have cemented himself as the best player in the NHL.

 

Yup, 2022 is the start of a dynasty.

[Hogs & Podz]

23 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't know that we can say they'l be less valuable, maybe just "as" valuable as they are now. We've got them for some prime playing years. Myers is the most likely to drop off in production for sure, but he may still be a solid defensive presence. 

 

We won't have an insurmountable cap problem either in two years. In two years these come off the books: Sutter, Edler, Pearson, Baer and Benn - thats 19.8 mil right there for big contracts, and the cap space for 21-22 is currently at just over 30 mil with all the other contracts clearing before now and then.

 

So 30 mil for Petey, Hughes, Brock, one of Demko or Marky. Its doable, particularly if we have guys like Woo, Podkolzin and one of two others on ELCs. 

 

But... someone out of the good roster players probably has to go. 

 

I see Jim looking at the ELCs year of Petey and Hughes as ones he wants to have a playoff team for, and I like that plan. 

 

 

 

Having Petey (20), Brock(22), Quinn(19) and to a lesser degree Bo(24) all competing for a playoff spot now with veterans around them to teach an insulate now.... Will help this core compete for many years (like Chicago has). 

 

Canucks make the playoffs next year and go deep into the second round.

20-21 they win it all!

21-22 on for 5 or 6 yrs they make the playoffs and have a chance at the cup.

 

Our window will be 10 yrs this time because Benning sees that we can compete now and will be getting better for many years to come.

 

The Sedins, as great as they were, didn't have a WO until they were 26 and lasted 4 years... Whereas Kane and Toews were 21 and 22 when they started challenging for the cup.  The time is now.  Benning gets this and is following the same model. 

 

EVERYTHING CHANGED when we got Petey... Everything sped up.  He's a serious difference maker.  We can't waste this time. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Hogs & Podz

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Hogs & Podz said:

Having Petey (20), Brock(22), Quinn(19) and to a lesser degree Bo(24) all competing for a playoff spot now with veterans around them to teach an insulate now.... Will help this core compete for many years (like Chicago has). 

 

Canucks make the playoffs next year and go deep into the second round.

20-21 they win it all!

21-22 on for 5 or 6 yrs they make the playoffs and have a chance at the cup.

 

Our window will be 10 yrs this time because Benning sees that we can compete now and will be getting better for many years to come.

 

The Sedins, as great as they were, didn't have a WO until they were 26 and lasted 4 years... Whereas Kane and Toews were 21 and 22 when they started challenging for the cup.  The time is now.  Benning gets this and is following the same model. 

 

EVERYTHING CHANGED when we got Petey... Everything sped up.  He's a serious difference maker.  We can't waste this time. 

Exactly!  Great post! 

[JamesB]

23 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Interesting thread, JamesB..sorry, my first reply I'd hardly skimmed thru, & just read more closely now.

 

Gotta say with this general notion (WOOppor) I'm a little skeptical. Recent Caps Cup for example, I would've figured their window was almost closed. Maybe Pens too.

 

All the way back to our '94 run, is a good example of things just 'coming together' at the right way/moment. Although of course, pre-cap times.

 

**************************************************************::

 

The greatest indicator of coming success, might be a superb(perhaps 4 or 5 yr period??) of drafting, where you accumulate resources to potentially(near future) stock half the roster of a quality team. It's too early to call, but I think JB(& crew) might've just done this.

 

Within the constraints/parity of a strict cap system, I'd reckon this is the best barometer of what's to come.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree that the "things just come together" theory also makes a lot of sense. While the teams that win the Cup are always good teams and pretty much always have two or three elite or franchise players, there is a lot of year-to-year variation. So one approach is to just kind of "hang around" in the playoff race and hope that everything falls into place for one year. That is kind of what happened with St. Louis this year.

 

22 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I think a primary difference between this opening and the last one is that in 2010, the twins were 29 years old, and turned 30 prior to the start of the 2010-11 season. While we have many supporting players in their late 20s, our core players are all 24 or younger. A counter-point would be that we're still not as good as we were in 2009-10, so the case could be made it would take another two or three years for our team  to become a 100+ point team as we were back then, meaning our core players would be a bit older.

Yes, 2010 was different. At least I hope the Canucks get another good shot at the Cup before EP turns 29! But the key is always your elite players. And EP, Boeser and Hughes have not become elite players. We can count on them being at least good core players, but they need to take that extra step to create a good chance for a Cup. The key issue is when will those young guys -- EP, Boeser, Hughes -- actually peak. If it takes a few years, the recently acquired guys might be into the downhill part of their careers. The is especially the case with Miller. If we have to wait four more years, Miller will have finished his contract and we won't have the first round pick  he was traded for. But maybe EP, Boeser, and Hughes peak fairly early (along with Horvat), in which case the timing might look good, especially if Podkolizin and Tryamkin also contribute.

22 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

You should have used "WOO" as the acronym for "window of opportunity" so it would read like Ric Flair wrote it.

I thought about "WOO" and I agree that is better. So I am going with it.

 

22 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

You realize that when those contracts come off the books, they need to be replaced, right? Your list has a 3rd line center, top-4 D-man, two middle-6 wingers and a bottom-pair D. They aren't free.

 

Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes alone could conceivably be making close to 30M combined in 2 years.

Yes, just because some contracts will come off the books over the next two years does not eliminate the cap pressure, as those guys will need to be replaced Most good teams have some highly paid guys and a lot of guys with pretty low cap hits. That is why it is very important to young guys who are cost-controlled. Right now the Canucks have a lot of "middle income" guys who they will not be able to afford when EP and Hughes re-sign. 

 

 

20 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

FIFY.   Linden felt he owed that to the Sedins and that was direction to Benning.   Once that was no longer the driver, the true Benning era began.    

I always wondered about who was driving the strategy and I don't think it will ever be clear. Yes, Linden did talk about trying to build around the Sedins, but was that his agenda or was he just pushing the party line? Of the Canuck senior management -- Aquilini, Linden, and Benning, Linden was the guy who emphasized the importance of drafting and development the most and was the first to use the "R-word" (rebuild). My sense is that he become uncomfortable with "win now" strategy fairly early, maybe by his second year whereas Benning has always maintained the "we can turn things around quickly" approach.

 

If the Canucks do finally turn the corner in the coming season, I am not sure that counts as "quickly", but I don't think many people will worry about that. But regardless of when we say the Benning era actually started, I think it is pretty clear that the Canucks need to show a lot of progress this year for him to be re-signed. I think they will show a lot of progess and they are a much better team than last year. The question is whether they are on Cup contender trajectory.

[Dr. Crossbar]

59 minutes ago, Hogs & Podz said:

Having Petey (20), Brock(22), Quinn(19) and to a lesser degree Bo(24) all competing for a playoff spot now with veterans around them to teach an insulate now.... Will help this core compete for many years (like Chicago has). 

 

Canucks make the playoffs next year and go deep into the second round.

20-21 they win it all!

21-22 on for 5 or 6 yrs they make the playoffs and have a chance at the cup.

 

Our window will be 10 yrs this time because Benning sees that we can compete now and will be getting better for many years to come.

 

The Sedins, as great as they were, didn't have a WO until they were 26 and lasted 4 years... Whereas Kane and Toews were 21 and 22 when they started challenging for the cup.  The time is now.  Benning gets this and is following the same model. 

 

EVERYTHING CHANGED when we got Petey... Everything sped up.  He's a serious difference maker.  We can't waste this time. 

Agree with your points. We can't waste time. Especially with a talent like Petey and also guys like Boeser and Hughes. You have to give these guys the best opportunity to win at a younger window. 

 

We're finally about to maximize Horvat's time here, too, at the right age.

[Johnny Torts]

23 hours ago, Arrow 1983 said:

In last 4 years Benning drafted the players he need now, drafted the players he needs in the future and signed the players he now to keep the window open for a very long time

you don't say...

[Rush17]

Two years to be conservative. Pod could join the team at the end of the 20-21 season. (Year following upcoming season). 

 

He could be a huge boost. Tryamkin comes at the end of the season ahead likely. Will see? It could happen anytime now. 

[AV's Coin]

On 7/14/2019 at 4:47 PM, kloubek said:

I insist we make the playoffs, and I think we have enough vets as to not need much more time to grow.  The question is whether we have enough skill in this lineup as a whole and whether or not our prospects will develop well enough to put us over the top.

 

Our issue in recent past is that we had a glut of 3rd liners. Now we have too many 2nd liners too.  What we don't have an entire line of 1st line quality guys.  Maybe we have prospects to properly fill that role in 1-2 years? Or trade in packages for it?

 

Then our d.  As much as it has improved, I feel it needs more scoring. 

 

But all in all I think this team will surprise many next season.  If we remain remotely healthy, of course.

Yep I like what Benning did this off season but would have preferred a skilled winger for BO's line over Ferland and/or Miller. Maybe Miller is that guy (I dont know enough about him).

 

Im talking about a Gusev type player. However Gusev comes with risk and we may not have had the trade pieces. But a player of that nature.

[mephnick]

19 hours ago, Westcoasting said:

I think the Canucks have to have a decent year and make the playoffs otherwise i fear Benning's window might be over and someone's new window is in place.

This happens all the time. Someone wins a Cup with someone else's team. I feel this will be Benning's fate.

 

A couple of so-so years, he gets fired. New GM wins the Cup with the core Benning constructed and gets all the credit. 

[alt kilgore]

7 hours ago, stawns said:

What?  I'd say the pre-planning is rock solid........some fans are just bitter because they refused to look for the forest through the trees while it was happening.  Those of us who looked at the bigger picture saw where it was going, so we're not surprised he pulled it off. 

LoL. If there is such a thing as an accidental rebuild, we just did it. I'm not bitter. I am a long suffering fan. I fully expect that any success will involve stumbling into glory with this team. But I'm all in. I have to be. We'll see what happens.

 

No one can see the forest fully grown. Other than you I guess. You saw the 5 dimensional chess game JB was playing all along. You and JB knew they'd land a Boeser @ 23 and a Pettersson @ 5. Good for you. Me, I'm happy to see we have managed to scrape together a decent team for now, no matter how we got here. Not sure how sustainable it is for reasons already explained.

 

But I'm going to live in the the present now. It is what it is. I'm behind our boys 100%. I'm hoping this newly planted forest grows song and healthy for years to come. We need a little luck, but I'm ready for the playoffs baby!

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, kilgore said:

LoL. If there is such a thing as an accidental rebuild, we just did it. I'm not bitter. I am a long suffering fan. I fully expect that any success will involve stumbling into glory with this team. But I'm all in. I have to be. We'll see what happens.

 

No one can see the forest fully grown. Other than you I guess. You saw the 5 dimensional chess game JB was playing all along. You and JB knew they'd land a Boeser @ 23 and a Pettersson @ 5. Good for you. Me, I'm happy to see we have managed to scrape together a decent team for now, no matter how we got here. Not sure how sustainable it is for reasons already explained.

 

But I'm going to live in the the present now. It is what it is. I'm behind our boys 100%. I'm hoping this newly planted forest grows song and healthy for years to come. We need a little luck, but I'm ready for the playoffs baby!

I agree with you, except for your questioning the team’s sustainability.  We have a fabulous group of prospects, who will be filling the support roles over the next 1-5 years as the current support guys age out. 

[Crabcakes]

22 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

I think the timing you gave in the "Linden plan" is about when our window will open. To me its minimum 3 years, I voted for the last option.

 

I'd like to think 2-3 years b/c we have the pieces, but realistically our young core hasn't sniffed playoffs yet, let alone gone through some ups & downs in the post season.

 

I think we are close to the playoffs, but being a true contender I don't quite see it on the horizon yet. I know we're going for it now, but still keep drafting & developing. Even add picks where we can, because we'll need some guys drafted outside 1st Rd to hit. 

 

You look at recent SC winners & when they're core players were drafted, compared to when the team finally wins:

 

STL: Pietrangelo (2008), ROR (2009), Schenn (2009), Taranseko (2010), Schwartz (2010), Binnington (2011), Edmunson (2011), Parayko (2012), exc.

 

WSH: Ovechin (2004), Oshie (2005), Backstrom (2006), Carlson (2008), Holtby (2008), Kuznetsov (2010), Wilson (2012), Niskanen (2005), exc.

 

PIT: Fluery (2003), Malkin (2004), Sid (2005), Letang (2005), Hornqvist (2005), Daley (2005), Kessel (2006), Bonino (2007), Murray (2012), Maatta (2012), Guentzel (2013), exc.

 

Even our 2011 team: Luongo (97), Twins (99), Kesler (03), Bieksa (01), Hamhuis (01), Ehrhoff (01), Edler (04), Hansen (04), Higgins (02), Malhotra (98), Salo (96), Raymond (05), Torres (00), exc.

 

Just need to keep building. Our young core getting playoff experience will be the first step, then supplementing those guys as they grow from there will be the 2nd step. 

It depends on how you want to roll out the rebuild.  There are as many variations as teams in the league.

 

Let's look at the Rangers.  They pulled the trigger on the rebuild early while they had a lot of players with high value to trade.  Did it begin in Feb 2018 when they moved Nash and Grabner?.......2018 (10 picks including 3 x 1sts) 2019 (8 picks including 2 x 2nds) and even through the initial rebuild stages we are seeing trades and free agent signings like Fox, Trouba and Panarin, Namestnikov, Howden, Strome.  

 

The other extreme is perhaps Winnipeg who never made trades other than to move on from Evander Kane who became a problem in the room.  And relied mostly on drafting.  They had some good players from the Atlanta days like Byfuglien, Wheeler and Little but have been rebuilding since moving to Winnipeg in 2011.  We saw no real success until 2018 when they went to the conference finals (playoffs in 2015 followed by 2 misses) and now, just 2 years later, they are struggling with the cap and losing important players.  Maybe they're just going into their first retooling period without winning the cup.

 

I've posted on this thread that Chicago saw a cup just 3 years after drafting Patrick Kane.  They did something like the Canucks are doing which is drafting until a core is in place then adding players by trade and free agency to fill holes.  They have retooled a couple of times and won 3 cups before father time caught up with them.  The first version of the Hawks shows a lot of players being drafted by the team from about 2002 (Keith, Wisniewski, Burrish) 2003 (Seabrook, Crawford, Byfuglien) 2004 (Barker, Bolland, Bickell, Brouwer) 2005 (Hjalmarsson) 2006 (Toews) 2007 (Kane) (that's 5 drafts) and later by trade/ free agency Sharp (05/06), Ladd (07/08), Campbell (08/09), Hossa (09/10), and Madden (09/10).  2010 was their first cup.

 

Which is the best way to rebuild?  It's really hard to say because opportunity and circumstance is so variable from team to team.  I would only suggest that once a team recognizes franchise players on their roster, it's time to go with it because a long 10 year career for your core players passes quickly.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2019 by Crabcakes

[kloubek]

1 hour ago, AV's Coin said:

Yep I like what Benning did this off season but would have preferred a skilled winger for BO's line over Ferland and/or Miller.

I agree with you.  Bo deserves linemates that match him in ability. He has never gotten such a linemate, and while I do like our recent acquisitions they do little to give us that real skilled guy. Still - better than what he's had and I think Miller would fit in well there.

 

I am really interested if Green somehow plays Baer with Bo, as I think there is potential there in Baer we havn't seen all of yet (Though I wouldn't expect 70 points or anything there either).

 

Our top line didn't get ideal either - though size on that line should really help.

 

I feel we have a really good team here.  But not a great one.  Between what is surely a mid 1st pick plus Tampa stealing one anyway, our draft future isn't strong - which would otherwise be the best way to get that potential top talent we need. 

 

We might have a couple of gems from the last draft and if so I think we will be almost there. 1 star defenseman to go.

[appleboy]

The only part of Jim's plan that worked was to get a little more out of the Sedins.  First year in he added Miller and ...... They got one year out of it .

Since then we have seen one disaster after another . (We did get high picks though.But not planned ones)

This year we will get to see another one of Jim's masterpieces.  Will it work? Not as well as it could have. You see, if he had of planned it out to go all in this year he would have managed his salary. 

Each year he has tried to prop the team up with little moves that have handcuffed them salary wise without having any real effect on the club. 

Sutter, LE , Gagner/ Spooner, Beagle, Rousell are all examples of small over paid moves that didn't work and cost too much. Those have stopped them from added enough pieces this year to really make a difference. 

This is a fly by the seat of the pants type of management. 

[Cargo]

A lot of crystal ball gazing. I think with the moves Benning has made this off season, and the drafting he’s done, we should be improved, and very much improved. We should have an excellent shot at making the playoffs and possibly more. No one knows how Petey and Hughes will do this year; if they take off, it could be a great year, because really, most of the other guys are not kids. We need those two to have really good years, we need Markstrom to do it again, and we need to new guys to step up. The potential is there, for anything from more abject failure to the big prize.

 

And truly, with the last year, and the summer the Lions and Whitecaps are having, if the Canucks suck again next year, I’m burning my man card, pouring my beer down the sink, and taking up crochet for a new hobby, because I’ll be damned if I’ll watch sports. 

[Crabcakes]

 

 

2 hours ago, kilgore said:

LoL. If there is such a thing as an accidental rebuild, we just did it. I'm not bitter. I am a long suffering fan. I fully expect that any success will involve stumbling into glory with this team. But I'm all in. I have to be. We'll see what happens.

 

No one can see the forest fully grown. Other than you I guess. You saw the 5 dimensional chess game JB was playing all along. You and JB knew they'd land a Boeser @ 23 and a Pettersson @ 5. Good for you. Me, I'm happy to see we have managed to scrape together a decent team for now, no matter how we got here. Not sure how sustainable it is for reasons already explained.

 

But I'm going to live in the the present now. It is what it is. I'm behind our boys 100%. I'm hoping this newly planted forest grows song and healthy for years to come. We need a little luck, but I'm ready for the playoffs baby!

Why am I laughing.  Maybe I've never heard it put that way before......accidental rebuild.......of course it is.

 

Clearly the original plan was to give the Sedins another kick at the can, meanwhile draft well and develop and hopefully they young guys starting with Horvat could support the Sedin's into their retirement.  Yes?  But Father Time got involved and the Sedins started their decline and Aquilini realized and had to let go of the dream of 2011.  Ooops, maybe rebuild is the only option......

 

Since Burrows and Hansen were moved in 2017 the rebuild was on imo.  Then Linden left and things have been progressing much better.  Not perfectly.  There have been issues but they're going in the right direction.  High hopes for next year.  Playoffs are a maybe this year but as the core matures, the team will get better and we'll see how far Petey and Hughes can take us.

[Cup2022]

6 hours ago, Davathor said:

I voted 2-3 seasons away.. the reason being that a lot of dead weight will come off the books, cap should jump up in 2 seasons, and that also gives Tryamkin and Pod time to join the Canucks.

 

Hughes will have matured past Doughty in his prime, Boeser will have a 50 goal season under his belt, Horvat will have 2 Selkes under his belt, and Petey will have cemented himself as the best player in the NHL.

 

Yup, 2022 is the start of a dynasty.

I get ya

[Googlie]

On 7/14/2019 at 8:45 PM, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I'd like to think 2-3 years b/c we have the pieces, but realistically our young core hasn't sniffed playoffs yet, let alone gone through some ups & downs in the post season.

 

 

So Petey taking Vaxjo to the SHL Championship, and winning MVP of the Playoffs isn't worth as much as losing in the first round of NHL Playoffs?