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Bert Diesel

The Great Salary Cap Conundrum

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JD Burke is highly over rated imo.  He speaks very well but his logic is flawed imo.  I think that the Canucks are "free agented up" this year and we will be seeing much less free agent activity in the future.  Team improvement will be coming mainly from the development of the core and other young players.  This is lost on Burke.  There will be trades etc from support players but this is tweaking the line up.

 

This year we may see 1 or 2 players leaving.  Eriksson, Schaller, and Goldobin are on my list.  But Motte or Leivo may be attractive in a trade for picks.  I am afraid that they may not have a choice with Baertschi.  I hope I'm wrong with Baer.

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2 hours ago, Bert Diesel said:

Much of the recent criticism and negativity towards the team relates to the way in which Benning/Weisbrod have constructed the salary structure. They have clearly made the team better and much harder to play against but some of the negativity is warranted. Management has put themselves in a risky situation for a couple seasons. The next 3 years will be difficult to navigate salary wise and it will be challenging to add more free agents. However, the situation isn’t as dire as some (J.D. Burke especially) would like you to believe. The bad contracts come off the books in a way that allows them to resign their big RFA talents but not with much room to add. They may be able to add UFA talent at the deadline with LITR space but overall, they’ve hamstrung themselves a bit in this regard. The year that the team should build towards would be the 2022-23 season. I know it’s too far ahead and there are too many variables to make a truly informed prediction but with the core intact and the cap space to make changes, that season will be a very strong opportunity to do playoff damage. At least a few of the prospects like Podkolzin, Woo, Madden, Hoglander, Tryamkin, Rathbone, Lind, etc. will be coming into the league at that point on their ELC’s and the team will still have Horvat, Myers, Ferland, Miller, Hughes, Petterson, Boeser on the squad. After the Luongo recapture, Erikson, Beagle and Roussel contracts come off the books they could add another impact forward or defenceman. My main concern is patience, I hope they don’t jump the gun and trade some of their prospects or draft picks too early. Another X-factor is the Seattle expansion; if the team is smart, they will expose players like Myers and Ferland who might be attractive to Seattle and will make cap room if taken. 

 

The Upcoming season (2019-2020)

In= Benn, Myers, Miller, Hughes,  Fantenburg, Ferland, Pearson

 Out= Pouliot, Hutton, Spooner, Granlund, Gudbranson, Schenn

 

Cap Space Remaining= 5-6 million (Boeser unsigned)

 

Salary Cap Outlook:

Boeser will need to be resigned and will likely make between 6.8-7.5 million. This can absorbed with Roussel’s LITR. By the time Roussel gets back someone else may be injured and the team can stay compliant. Obviously trading one of Baertschi, Sutter, Tanev or Eriksson would instantly solve the issue. I can see a salary retention on Tanev or Sutter may give them back value. 

 

Next Season: (2020-2021)

 

In= Juolevi, Macewen 

Will need a raise: Stecher, Virtanen, Gaudette, Markstrom= total raise $ required=6-7 million (above the current cost of players)

Out: Tanev, Schaller, Leivo= around 7.5 million

 

Salary cap outlook: 

If the salary cap goes up around 2 million; the team will have 3-5 million left over, resigning Leivo and replacing Tanev will likely take up this space.  Ultimately, there will not be much room for improvements this season, they need to worry about the following year with Petterson and Hughes’ contract will be up. 

 

 

Following Season: (2021-2022)

 

Expansion Draft=????- may create some cap space

 

In= Podkolzin, Woo, Hoglander, Lind?

Needs to be signed: Petterson, Hughes, Demko, Juolevi= Petterson 10.5 Hughes= 7.5 Demko 3 million= Juolevi (2 million)= 23 million estimated

 

Out/UFA: The buyout of Spooner, Edler, Pearson, Sutter, Baertschi, Benn: total=20 million coming off the cap 

 

Salary Cap Outlook: Very little space. The big name core pieces will need to be resigned. Depending how the cap goes up and how the RFA numbers are going up, this could be a tricky season. Thankfully, there is enough veteran contracts expiring this season to be flexible. If Demko and Juolevi or some other prospect has a strong season the year before, it may mean there isn’t enough space to keep everyone. They may have to buyout Eriksson’s if he isn’t already gone or Beagle. The team will have to get younger this season and the success may largely depend on the strength of their prospect pool. 

 

Following Season: (2022-2023)

 

Need to be signed: ?? This is too far ahead to predict. May be some RFA bridge deals that need to be signed. 

Out: Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Luongo cap recapture= 15 million

 

Salary Cap Outlook: Quite good. This season will see a bunch of space free up and the big RFA’s will have already been signed. They will be able to add some veterans (hopefully on short contracts) to help the core who will be entering their prime. The outlook for this season is quite optimistic and this may be a good time to trade prospects or draft picks and go for a cup. 

 

Conclusion:

In a weird, roundabout way, the bad contracts they’ve signed will prevent them from making other similar mistakes. It has created some contract discipline as they need to focus on retaining their stars. The reasonable contracts they have like Horvat and Miller will serve them well in the long run and things are looking up. My prediction is that they miss the playoffs this year, make it the year after, and are in contention for a few years after that. 

 

i am puzzled why you do not just go to capfriendly

 

it sets out that the team will have 22.8 million to start the 2020 - 21 season

that does not include brock's contract (7) nor a cap increase (2) - so let's say it's 18 million with these 2 adjustments

 

the team will have 46 million to start the 2021 -22 season

that does not include brock's contract (7) nor a further cap increase (2 + 2) - so 43 with these adjustments

 

there is plenty of cap space

not sure why so many insist the team has not done a good job managing space

 

the other thing that has yet to occur before the start of this season is roster size reduction

team can only have 23 players - it will have more if brock and goldy are signed (26)

just demoting players will result in a savings of around 1 million per player or 3 million

this 3 plus the 5 in current available cap space will likely be enough for the signing of both brock and goldy

and if a player is waived and claimed his entire contract will disappear (which will create more cap space)

 

roussel's contract counts for cap purposes for the 1st day of the season and is included in the above figures

his contract can be put on ltir the next day

that will permit immediate cap flexibility for the 1st half of the season if anything unexpected comes up

if there is any significant injury that player goes on ltir

and cap space is freed up to sign another player

the team has done a pretty good job this off season and prior to properly structure the cap

and oodles of space is being created for the next 2 off seasons

Edited by coastal.view
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We have 2 sweet spots.  2020-21, the last year of EP40/Hughes on ELC,s and the above stated window.  I'm pretty confident we'll be losing one of Demko/Markstrom in the expansion draft, and I've made my peace with it.  Losing a good player means we have a solid group.

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1 hour ago, coastal.view said:

i am puzzled why you do not just go to capfriendly

 

it sets out that the team will have 22.8 million to start the 2020 - 21 season

that does not include brock's contract (7) nor a cap increase (2) - so let's say it's 18 million with these 2 adjustments

 

the team will have 46 million to start the 2021 -22 season

that does not include brock's contract (7) nor a further cap increase (2 + 2) - so 43 with these adjustments

 

there is plenty of cap space

not sure why so many insist the team has not done a good job managing space

 

the other thing that has yet to occur before the start of this season is roster size reduction

team can only have 23 players - it will have more if brock and goldy are signed (26)

just demoting players will result in a savings of around 1 million per player or 3 million

this 3 plus the 5 in current available cap space will likely be enough for the signing of both brock and goldy

and if a player is waived and claimed his entire contract will disappear (which will create more cap space)

 

roussel's contract counts for cap purposes for the 1st day of the season and is included in the above figures

his contract can be put on ltir the next day

that will permit immediate cap flexibility for the 1st half of the season if anything unexpected comes up

if there is any significant injury that player goes on ltir

and cap space is freed up to sign another player

the team has done a pretty good job this off season and prior to properly structure the cap

and oodles of space is being created for the next 2 off seasons

I used capfriendly the whole time I did the research for the post. I'm not saying my numbers are 100% accurate; they are projections. You aren't taking into consideration the fact that capfriendly is only counting 15 players next year on the cap and only 7 the year after. That means they will have to sign 8 more players with that 2020-21 money, it may turn into a problem when Petterson, Hughes, Juolevi, etc all have their ELC's expire. More than that, the poor contracts on the books shorten their contention window as the prime ELC years of Petterson and Hughes will not be maximized. The cap rising could create some space but salaries also correspondingly rise. There is not oodles of cap space next season or the season after despite what you claim. I will give this management credit for drafting but they have done an objectively poor job at managing the cap and those who think otherwise are wearing their homer goggles. That being said, their mistakes (plus Gillis' Luongo penalty) will be over soon enough and the teams core should thrive. The point of the post was not to be overly negative about Eriksson, Beagle, Sutter, and other mistakes but to show that there is hope at the end of all this. That being said, if you aren't somewhat skeptical of this managements ability to manage a cap at this point, you haven't been paying close enough attention. 

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2 minutes ago, Bert Diesel said:

I used capfriendly the whole time I did the research for the post. I'm not saying my numbers are 100% accurate; they are projections. You aren't taking into consideration the fact that capfriendly is only counting 15 players next year on the cap and only 7 the year after. That means they will have to sign 8 more players with that 2020-21 money, it may turn into a problem when Petterson, Hughes, Juolevi, etc all have their ELC's expire. More than that, the poor contracts on the books shorten their contention window as the prime ELC years of Petterson and Hughes will not be maximized. The cap rising could create some space but salaries also correspondingly rise. There is not oodles of cap space next season or the season after despite what you claim. I will give this management credit for drafting but they have done an objectively poor job at managing the cap and those who think otherwise are wearing their homer goggles. That being said, their mistakes (plus Gillis' Luongo penalty) will be over soon enough and the teams core should thrive. The point of the post was not to be overly negative about Eriksson, Beagle, Sutter, and other mistakes but to show that there is hope at the end of all this. That being said, if you aren't somewhat skeptical of this managements ability to manage a cap at this point, you haven't been paying close enough attention. 

I like your points Bert, but I disagree.  I think Sutter and Beagle are important to the offence of Petey and Bo.  Plus, we should be at the cap every season while we have Petey and Quinn.  They are great players, who deserve to be supported with the best team possible.  We have Cap smart people to manage the issue.  (Loui is a problem that will disappear when he retires to avoid the embarrassment of playing in the minors.)

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17 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I like your points Bert, but I disagree.  I think Sutter and Beagle are important to the offence of Petey and Bo.  Plus, we should be at the cap every season while we have Petey and Quinn.  They are great players, who deserve to be supported with the best team possible.  We have Cap smart people to manage the issue.  (Loui is a problem that will disappear when he retires to avoid the embarrassment of playing in the minors.)

I don't mind Beagle. In isolation that contract isn't as terrible as others think and he's a nice piece as a penalty killer and a gritty 4th C. He is better on a good team and will have better numbers with better wingers but he isn't a huge upgrade from a replacement level player like Cracknell we had a few years back. For that money and term he's being paid as a 3rd line center compared to the rest of the league. Despite your opinion, it's not a good contract. Sutter is also a character guy, he'd also be a good 4th line or checking line center but doesn't provide enough offence or make the players around him better enough to justify his contract (being paid as a 2nd line center). He's had terrible injury luck and I hope he has a bounce back season, but he is overpaid by any metric. If we have smart cap people working for the team, there has been little evidence to prove this assertion. The Loui problem is not going to be solved by him retiring, that would be amazing but highly unlikely. He can still play but is overpaid by about 5 million. When you add up all the bad contracts it does not paint a rosy picture of this managements ability to assess pro talent and manage the salary cap. Nice try Alf but this managements strength has been drafting not cap management. 

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3 minutes ago, Bert Diesel said:

I don't mind Beagle. In isolation that contract isn't as terrible as others think and he's a nice piece as a penalty killer and a gritty 4th C. He is better on a good team and will have better numbers with better wingers but he isn't a huge upgrade from a replacement level player like Cracknell we had a few years back. For that money and term he's being paid as a 3rd line center compared to the rest of the league. Despite your opinion, it's not a good contract. Sutter is also a character guy, he'd also be a good 4th line or checking line center but doesn't provide enough offence or make the players around him better enough to justify his contract (being paid as a 2nd line center). He's had terrible injury luck and I hope he has a bounce back season, but he is overpaid by any metric. If we have smart cap people working for the team, there has been little evidence to prove this assertion. The Loui problem is not going to be solved by him retiring, that would be amazing but highly unlikely. He can still play but is overpaid by about 5 million. When you add up all the bad contracts it does not paint a rosy picture of this managements ability to assess pro talent and manage the salary cap. Nice try Alf but this managements strength has been drafting not cap management. 

Again, you make very good points.  I think Beagle and Sutter (doing most of the heavy lifting: PK and hardest matchup minutes) make Petey and Bo better.  As time moves forward both Beagle and Sutter will be replaced by young players, like Gaudette and Madden.  

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14 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Again, you make very good points.  I think Beagle and Sutter (doing most of the heavy lifting: PK and hardest matchup minutes) make Petey and Bo better.  As time moves forward both Beagle and Sutter will be replaced by young players, like Gaudette and Madden.  

I agree with you here. I'm not sure which part of my previous post you disagreed with then? My point is that both the Benning bro's and the ultra negative crowd are both not seeing a complete picture. The salary cap conundrum will prevent us from being serious contenders for a couple years but solve itself in about 3 years. 

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Also, let's hypothetically imagine that Tyson Barrie wants to come to Vancouver next season. He would be a huge piece that could shore up the right side of the D, a weakness for ages and a weak part of our prospect pool. Even if he wants to come here on a hometown discount, how can we fit him under the cap? The only way is to trade other assets like prospects and picks to get rid of our bad contracts. This is where these contracts create issues. We need to continue the momentum of building our prospect base as Utica hasn't been a juggernaught yet and we are just beginning to see the fruits of the previous 3-4 drafts. 

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It's a solid write up and totally accurate.  

 

People have been bending over backwards to create issues with the cap without ever considering who we have on ELCs, how much space we have let alone the minimal contract increases vs those contracts we will be losing.  For every player needing a new extension or contract we have a player making $3 million or more who we will be losing.  effectively meaning moderate increases on the contracts were losing.

 

So, if Pettersson gets say $8.5 million, but we lose Eriksson it's a $2.5 million increase etc.

 

We've got some things to consider this year and as you indicated in 2 seasons but really we're actually in a beauty situation in terms of rebuilding teams.  We're growing in house depth for the first time in club history in amounts we've never seen.  Have decent grit, skill and a few variables.

 

I won't say it's all roses, but it's sure not the bleak situation people keep thinking it might be.

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Our cap space is fine.  I’ve analyzed CapFriendly extensively over the last few weeks and I don’t see us having any cap issues at all over the next few years unless we do something stupid in free agency.  We have big contracts coming off the books each year and we have lots of guys who will be on ELC’s.  

 

Also, the expansion draft will put millions of dollars into the owner’s pockets as well as the new TV deal, so the cap will most likely go up extensively over the next 2-3 years which will put us in even better shape.  

 

Also, you forgot about two of our best young prospects in Tryamkin and Madden.  I can see them both in the starting lineup in 2 years.  

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

It's a solid write up and totally accurate.  

 

People have been bending over backwards to create issues with the cap without ever considering who we have on ELCs, how much space we have let alone the minimal contract increases vs those contracts we will be losing.  For every player needing a new extension or contract we have a player making $3 million or more who we will be losing.  effectively meaning moderate increases on the contracts were losing.

 

So, if Pettersson gets say $8.5 million, but we lose Eriksson it's a $2.5 million increase etc.

 

We've got some things to consider this year and as you indicated in 2 seasons but really we're actually in a beauty situation in terms of rebuilding teams.  We're growing in house depth for the first time in club history in amounts we've never seen.  Have decent grit, skill and a few variables.

 

I won't say it's all roses, but it's sure not the bleak situation people keep thinking it might be.

 

that is not correct

you are assuming ep40 gets zero dollars presently

he does not play for free

 

i'm guessing petey will more then likely be paid a higher aav then you suggest

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14 hours ago, Bert Diesel said:

The Upcoming season (2019-2020)

In= Benn, Myers, Miller, Hughes,  Fantenburg, Ferland, Pearson

 Out= Pouliot, Hutton, Spooner, Granlund, Gudbranson, Schenn

It could be argued that, maybe, and I mean maybe, aside from Fantenburg (who is a great 7th D man) all the incoming players are better than all the outgoing players?

 

Awesome sh!tz!

 

And I love the succession plan laid out later in your post!

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Bert Diesel said:

[....]

The Upcoming season (2019-2020)

In= Benn, Myers, Miller, Hughes,  Fantenburg, Ferland, Pearson

 Out= Pouliot, Hutton, Spooner, Granlund, Gudbranson, Schenn

 

Cap Space Remaining= 5-6 million (Boeser unsigned)

 

Salary Cap Outlook:

Boeser will need to be resigned and will likely make between 6.8-7.5 million. This can absorbed with Roussel’s LITR. By the time Roussel gets back someone else may be injured and the team can stay compliant. Obviously trading one of Baertschi, Sutter, Tanev or Eriksson would instantly solve the issue. I can see a salary retention on Tanev or Sutter may give them back value. 

 

 

Pettersson and Hughes are performance bonus eligible.  It seems likely that Pettersson would hit his schedule A bonuses of 850K and Hughes at least part of his if not all.  That's potentially an additional 2 x 850K = 1.7M against the cap.  It can be carried over to next season.


Pettersson has schedule B bonuses of up to 2M but those are based on league wide performance like top-10 in scoring or winning a major award like the Calder.

 

It's not ideal to be close to the cap and to be forced to use LTIR as it limits the ability to bank cap space especially if LTIR is only temporary and not for the full season.  

 

Chicago gave up Hinostroza, who Bowman was calling an untouchable just a year earlier, to move out the Hossa contract.  Vegas is trying to move the Clarkson contract but asking price is apparently high although his salary is only 200K.

 

Banking on players having such serious injuries that they will be out at least for 10 games/24 days to use LTIR throughout the season doesn't seem practical.  Teams cannot keep a healthy player on IR or LTIR - that's CBA circumvention and puts them at risk of being penalised by the league.  

 

It could be more challenging to organise a trade mid-season when every team knows that they need to move someone out to create the necessary cap space to activate Roussel if they had to use LTIR.  

 

Edited by mll
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13 hours ago, Bert Diesel said:

Also, let's hypothetically imagine that Tyson Barrie wants to come to Vancouver next season. He would be a huge piece that could shore up the right side of the D, a weakness for ages and a weak part of our prospect pool. Even if he wants to come here on a hometown discount, how can we fit him under the cap? The only way is to trade other assets like prospects and picks to get rid of our bad contracts. This is where these contracts create issues. We need to continue the momentum of building our prospect base as Utica hasn't been a juggernaught yet and we are just beginning to see the fruits of the previous 3-4 drafts. 

There's zero need for Barrie and his $8-9m contract.

 

I also don't know a single knowledgeable hockey person that thinks Beagle is overpaid, or that Sutter should be a salary dump.  JB has a clear plan of contract succession that allows him to keep the team intact for an extended period........his UFA work is mostly done, imo, and he has a pipeline of youth that should be able to keep the team competitive and cap friendly for a long time.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Bert Diesel said:

Also, let's hypothetically imagine that Tyson Barrie wants to come to Vancouver next season. He would be a huge piece that could shore up the right side of the D, a weakness for ages and a weak part of our prospect pool. Even if he wants to come here on a hometown discount, how can we fit him under the cap? The only way is to trade other assets like prospects and picks to get rid of our bad contracts. This is where these contracts create issues. We need to continue the momentum of building our prospect base as Utica hasn't been a juggernaught yet and we are just beginning to see the fruits of the previous 3-4 drafts. 

It's not like we won't have the option to move out contracts. Miller has no restrictions on his contract. Pearson had a great end to his season and if he continues close to that pace, at his salary, teams will come knocking. Adding Barrie would mean letting Tanev go which is already 4.5 mill. Replace Stetcher with someone half his salary. 

 

We have flexibility, plenty of it.

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